discobiscuit

discobiscuit

Putting on my bear hat this morning and reflecting on how difficult the move up from October 2022 low has been to interpret, from an Elliott Wave perspective. If you were trying to convince yourself of a major market top and completed five-wave impulse, I think this is how you'd have to do it. Wave ((5)) ends of being an expanding ending diagonal off October 2022...

discobiscuit

I prefer to use Elliott Wave Theory for following equity markets, gold/silver, and Bitcoin, and I avoid using Elliott Wave Theory for individual stocks, with a few exceptions (MSFT, NVDA, and a few others). I do think NVDA wlll make a move above 1000 soon, with an ideal wave 5 of (3) to be above 1150. Its bounce from 756.06 looks to have a plenty of potential to...

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XAGUSD is an intriguing chart. It certainly has some catching up to do with gold, with some huge potential gains if this count plays out. First step would be completing a wave 3 in the 47.5-50 range (double top), correction towards 38-40, then a break up towards 70. If this count continues to play out, I think the move towards 50 will be relatively quick,...

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I think the NYSE Composite Index is very helpful in terms of showing where I think the major equity markets are, in terms of a five-wave cycle. I have wave ((1)) ending in October 2007, wave ((2)) ending in March 2009 (Great Financial Crisis), wave ((3)) ending in January 2022 and wave ((4)) ending in October 2022. I expected wave ((4)) to go deeper and get...

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I see XAUUSD currently in wave 5 of (3) of ((3)) of v. I am looking for this move to approach 2600 before a pullback towards 2400. I think the time between the years 1976-1980 is a good reference for where I think we are in XAUUSD's current wave v. Wave v's in XAUUSD tend to be rather extended. Orange ellipses are wave 1's and green ellipses are wave 3's. Big...

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As price has poked above 5333.50, the bear scenario has officially been invalidated. I have four different impulse waves from the low of 4963.50 (green ellipses). I see no way to create a diagonal from the price action in the orange ellipse. How these impulse waves will fit together is yet to be determined, but it is likely that ES1! will grind upward for the...

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If 56547.64 holds as the low of this correction, my count has wave (1) and wave (2) of primary wave iii complete. If correct, I'd like to see wave iii get north of 127112.14. Perhaps we'll see some sort of catalyst, like Amazon.com accepting Bitcoin, to get the next phase of the bull market going. The proposed wave (2) is shallow (between .236 and .382), but it...

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As NQ1! price moves towards its ATH at 18709, and assuming that new ATHs are found shortly, I'm looking at this being wave 5 of (3) of ((5)). Wave (1) of ((5)) was an expanding leading diagonal. Major corrections in the primary wave structure coincide with significant world events (i.e. Great Financial Crisis, COVID-19, etc.). S&P, DJI, and Russell 2000 all at...

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Bullish count on left, bearish count on right. Lots of gymnastics on the left, but it is still just a series of impulse waves up, with key higher low pivots held. There are different ways to interpret these impulse waves collectively, and the one I have chosen would get one complete impulse wave off low of 4963.50 to happen the quickest. Key price support at...

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My bullish count has completed impulse (1) off low of 15473.78, completed regular flat wave (2) from high of 73757.39. The flat is within the green ellipse, and the C wave of the flat is not my favorite; however, I think the possibility of a diagonal for lower lows has been eliminated at this point. Price moved above 65000 and has moved back down towards the...

discobiscuit

Bull case on left, bear case on right. On the left, I think there are different ways to complete the move from 5333.50 to 4963.50, but for simplicity, I have just used a leading diagonal A, zigzag B, impulse wave C. From the low of 4963.50, it would appear that there are 4 distinct and overlapping impulse waves (with higher lows at 4991.25, 5022.25, and 5036.25),...

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For ES1! bears, I'm looking at a double-three correction from low of 4963.50, with an expanded flat Y, to complete below 5194.25. For the flat, 3 is shorter than 1, so 5 needs to finish below 5194.25. As such, this count is invalid with price above 5194.25. Price is currently between .5 and .618 Fibonacci price points on the correction, so bears are definitely...

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Comparison of BTCUSD and ETHUSD, bearish counts. Since their highs in March 2024, they both look like they are trying to form contracting diagonals (or wedges). For BTCUSD, it could mean an ending diagonal C to complete the flat. For ETHUSD, however, this would be a leading diagonal and would not make sense in the context of BTCUSD having an ending diagonal. The...

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First of all, this is not the prettiest C wave, but if you have the BTCUSD bottom in, then I think this is how you have to do it. Price action did not touch the median line of either pitchfork, and if that remains true, price action should turn back up towards ATHs. I would like to see price get above 62390.01 to rule out a diagonal C wave to have more confidence...

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Watching UVIX break through its low of $8.37 this morning gives me confidence that market top is not in. The most bullish scenario now would see four separate impulse waves (in blue ellipses) since low of 4963.50. Pivots at 5022.25 and 5036.25 were both technical, bouncing off .618 fib levels. Bulls need to advance above 5200 with continued impulsive action, and...

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What an amazing chart... I have wave (1) peaking in December 1999, wave (2) completing a zigzag ABC in March 2009, wave 3 ending in November 2021, wave (4) triple-three ending in November 2022, and wave (5) likely complete in March 2024. Parallel channel connecting waves (1), (2), and (3) provided (along with Fibonacci) strong support for wave (4). MSFT could go...

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Current micro-primary count for YM1!. Working off premise of impulse wave down from 40358 to 37463, corrective double-three bounce off low with zigzag W, X, expanded flat Y. Count valid with price above 37866, with median line of pitchfork as target.

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BTCUSD still looks like a regular flat, just with a prolonged, elaborate, and extended C wave. Wave (1) of C is circled in the red ellipse, wave (2) appears to be an expanded flat (green ellipse). Wave (3) appears to be still in progress, with more downside likely, in my opinion. Corrective price action in the blue ellipses appear to be zigzags, and so are not...