discobiscuit

discobiscuit

Comparing SPX on the left with UVIX on the right. If UVIX double bottom can hold price above 8.37 and SPX can break below price of 4953.56, I find it highly probable that the top of equities is in. If UVIX at any point breaks below 8.37, then any breaks of SPX below 4953.56 would like be dip-buying opportunities. If UVIX breaks below 8.37, then it is also possible...

discobiscuit

ETHUSD looks like it's trying to form a (leading) contracting diagonal, which would be a very bearish development. A median line tag above 2399.81 would complete the pattern.

discobiscuit

I have altered my primary count to what I think is more accurate in terms of the largest wave structures. Area in orange ellipse was the "free money" wave (5) of iii, wave (4) that preceded it being a very rare (and incredibly bullish) running flat. For wave v, I have my bullish count in green and bearish count in red. There is a five-wave structure to complete...

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This count has primary wave 1 peaking in October 2007, wave 2 a zigzag down to March 2009 low, wave 3 peaking in September 2018, wave 4 an expanded flat bottoming in March 2020 (COVID-19 low), and wave 5 peaking in January 2022. This would complete a full impulse from ATL to ATH. After January 2022 (which would be wave 2 of largest degree), I have what looks like...

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If NQ1! has topped for primary wave iii of v, the top of 18709 tagged the 3.618 extension of i from ii and, at the same time, it tagged the 5.618 extension of (1) from (4). From a technical standpoint, it's a beautiful finish. I would think that 11806.25 would hold as support, but technically wave iv can finish anywhere above 4884.

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Side-by-side comparison of ES1! and NQ1!. I'm proposing that both have impulse waves down from their ATHs to the lows of last week. Areas in orange ellipses show ES1! holding its low and NQ1! breaking its low. I'm interpreting this as evidence that each bounced off their lows with corrective structures, ES1! with a regular flat and NQ1! with an expanded flat....

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I think that if one is to interpret the move from 5333.50 to 4963.50 as an impulse wave, this is the best way to do it. Wave 1 of the impulse (orange ellipse) is a contracting leading diagonal. The proposed ES1! impulse wave down correlates nicely with NQ1!'s price action (NQ1! has an expanding leading diagonal in its impulse wave). If the impulse wave from...

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My count has wave 5 of 5 of primary wave 3 complete, primary wave 4 projected to complete towards October 2022 low of 10484.75. I'm looking at 11806.25 to be support for primary wave 4. Area in orange ellipse ends of being an expanding leading diagonal 1 of 5 of 3.

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Working primary count has impulse wave from ATH at 5333.50 to 4963.50. Area in orange ellipse is suspect, so if this count doesn't play out, will likely need to go back and tease out this price action. Corrective bounce off low of 4963.50 appears to be an ABC zigzag. Looking for another impulse wave to complete a C wave or a 3 wave.

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I'm looking at price action from ATH as having completed an impulse wave down to 17181.75, with an expanded flat corrective wave (area in orange ellipse), likely to complete today. Wave C (bulls, green) or wave 3 (bears, red) should be another impulse wave down below low of 17113.25.

discobiscuit

I have one completed impulse down from the ATH at 18709.00. This impulse started with an expanding leading diagonal and finished at 17181.75. Bulls (green) see this an A wave, and bears (red) see this as wave 1. Bounce off low tagged the 23.60% retracement with a zigzag and then found a new lower low. With this I see two possibilities: either we start forming more...

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As a regular flat, this looked pretty reasonable, and then we got another daily lower low on our current candle. Bulls should be worried that the area in the ellipse is an expanded flat and, if so, would imply further downside is ahead.

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B wave of expanded flat looks complete, looking for C wave to end below 13278.5608 and above 10387.1680.

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Bullish count in green, bearish count in red. Completed impulse off high of 18709 to low of 17181.75. Impulse had expanding leading diagonal to start. Bulls looking for B wave in 17765.25-18261.75 area. Bears may already have the 2 in at 17553.25. If low of 181.75 holds, bears looking for the 2 no higher than 17854.

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Bull count in green, bear count in red. Tricky impulse down from 5333.50 to 4963.50. The question is whether the impulse is an A or a 1... if it is an A, I would think the bounce should be back up to 5148.50-5225.25 area. If it is a 1, the 2 could already be complete, but I wouldn't think the bounce to go any higher than 5123.25. The C or 3 should take us down to...

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An updated bullish count showing impulse wave 3 of 3 of 5 complete and wave 4 of 3 of 5 in progress. If this is correct, then wave 4 is looking like a zigzag, and I anticipate the (A) wave to complete between 4834.76 and 4929.37 before the bounce of the (B) wave starts. 5264.85 will likely be the top for the next several months.

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Looking at EW triangle to still be in play. If bottom of the day (59729.39) holds as support, looking for impulse wave up to 70-72k area over the next week, with 72756.63 to hold as resistance.

discobiscuit

Bull count in green, bear count in red. Area in orange ellipse started off as chop monster, more impulsive action since 12 April. Given the depth and price action since ATH, odds moving strongly towards top being in. I am now watching for a larger (and more complicated) leading diagonal setting up. Even we get a (temporary) bottom today and move back towards 5200,...