gr8fultrading

gr8fultrading Updated 

A classic bull flag had a false breakout overnight. Price has fallen back into it and retested the upper channel, failing there too. The 50DMA is at $ES 3830-40, and it's entirely possible we revisit that level between now and the FOMC announcement tomorrow afternoon. Following that, if the bull flag plays out completely, upside potential is all the way up at...

gr8fultrading Updated 

Based on the TLT pattern shown here, bonds may have much further below to go. They've continued to steadily sell off as rates have continued climbing, and show no signs of a long-term bounce. Target 1 has been breached, leaving target 2 in the crosshairs: $86-87.

gr8fultrading Updated 

Months ago, when 10 year bond futures were still 175, this weekly head and shoulders pattern jumped out at me. It looked so big and so bad I almost didn't want to believe it could play out. Now, as we approach 135, this massive, fully triggered pattern may be the best indication of where bonds are headed: 125. Sure, they could bounce a few times as they have...

gr8fultrading

"But the news wasn't that bad, why is the market falling??" When news or economic data hits the wire, markets move. Many traders are left scratching their heads, trying to come up with an explanation for why the market tanks on good news or rallies on bad news. Don't waste your time. It turns out, news is usually just a catalyst that allows momentum traders...

gr8fultrading Updated 

With the intraday bounce at 3870, $ES is setting up a potential inverse head & shoulders pattern. Trigger is clearance of neckline resistance at 3920-30, and the target zone is 3980-4030. Any crossing below 3845 invalidates this pattern.

gr8fultrading

For all the talk about how POW is going away now that the ETH Merge is complete, over the past 24 hours, Bitcoin is holding up better than pretty much anything. My outlook is neutral, but if this ending diagonal breaks upward, we could see a re-test of the bear flag, again. The target would be around 22.4K.

gr8fultrading Updated 

A relief bounce/short squeeze is in the works here. The potential targets are up in the yellow box. This pattern will be invalidated if price goes below the blue trend line today (from June's lows). One could go long here at 3950, but it's less risky to wait for the pattern to trigger Watch for a break through the neckline ~3975 and acceptance above

gr8fultrading

Sometimes, to get through resistance, you have to force sellers to liquidate at much lower prices. This just happened. ES struggled to get through 3975 since yesterday, and needed a hit new daily lows to get rid of those sellers. Even though the H&S pattern posted earlier has been technically invalidated, the minimum measured move of the descending channel...

gr8fultrading Updated 

Adding the developing Head & Shoulders pattern to the clear accumulation and distribution seen on the 4h chart from June's lows until now. Note that the VPOC has already moved up from 3771 to 4137 (where we've been essentially stuck for days). If the pattern triggers and reaches target, $ES would be right back to the accumulation cost basis, with big momo...

gr8fultrading Updated 

Bitcoin is trading indecisively (as are broader markets) and is forming a head & shoulders pattern right at the lower bear flag border. Neckline and target are shown here in purple.

gr8fultrading Updated 

The rising trendline from June's lows is the likely target for this decline. No idea what happens there, and I won't be buying it on the first touch. Knives should be picked up off the floor, not caught! If this is helpful to you, let me know in the comments and follow to get charts immediately.

gr8fultrading Updated 

S&P futures have formed a classic bear flag at the lows, just above 4000. Price tried to break out at the top, but failed, and now has broken through the bottom. Target as shown on chart: 3960 Invalid if price accepts back above 4020

gr8fultrading

I’d like to say that bitcoin is making a bull flag here, but instead it’s trending upwards towards the lower limit of the bear flag it fell out of. Let’s see what price does when it gets closer to $22,000. A rejection there and continued acceptance below would indicate further downside, to $11,000 or lower

gr8fultrading Updated 

If LTC closes above the trendline and stays above it we're in for a ride

gr8fultrading

Nice pennant on that one. Does it dive back into the sea or launch into flight?

gr8fultrading Updated 

This pair is one of my favorites and appears to be preparing to break out or break down, just below 200MA on the 4hr, as well as major resistance at 0.01934. Looks more bullish than bearish to me, though RSI is neutral. OBV has made a pennant of its own. Let's see what develops.

gr8fultrading

I'm going out on a limb here to say that if LTC closes the next 4-hour candle above $169, it will have broken the downtrend that initiated on February 20th. It will also have completed the iH&S pattern that is very clearly defined. From there it would make sense to mosey on up and retest resistance at $190, and having cleared that, onward and upward! But I'm...

gr8fultrading

After successfully breaking out of the multi-day diamond (more like a rhombus, actually), Litecoin rallied early today only to fall back briefly. But this pullback is looking like the lower level of a new 15-minute bull pennant, which has yet to be fully confirmed. Look for the price to rise back to the top of the flag, then fall to the lower end, only to...