jvrfxalerts

jvrfxalerts

In my previous idea www.tradingview.com I explored the possibility of EUR/USD retesting 1.0792. It did so in record time and triggered my buy entry at 1.0792 which was stopped out at 1.0765. I went long again at 1.0733 and have already tightened my limit stop to 1.0755. The uptrend very narrowly survived after the pair barely closed above the 8h uptrend...

jvrfxalerts Updated 

The market once again got ahead of itself, in my opinion, during Powell's press conference. He denied that any rate cuts were on the table and I am really puzzled by journalists who detected that he "hinted " at a pause. Maybe I am nuanced enough to hear that... I think it goes without saying that there will be a pause in the rate hikes but in his own words, it...

jvrfxalerts Updated 

The daily chart has just completed a text evening star formation which is bearish. The intersection of the uptrend line and the next FOMC rate decision is speculative but seems to correspond roughly with the monthly support zone. I'm short at 1.0714 with a target at 1.0490. I don't think there is anything fundamental that will change the trajectory of EUR/USD...

jvrfxalerts

8 hour support and resistance on 8 hour charts. I am wondering if the market will attempt to reach the weekly highs of 1.0704 or 1.0713...

jvrfxalerts Updated 

I shorted the bounce up to 1.0690 after closing my long at 1.0610 and missing out on another 80 pips. Made up for it by shorting down to 1.0620 after Euro PMI's but stayed neutral until this morning. I am now considering shorting at 1.0638-1.0644 again. The weekly chart shows a head and shoulders formation in my opinion and yesterday's bearish daily candle gives...

jvrfxalerts Updated 

NZD/JPY has broken out of the triangle and is about to push through the consolidation ceiling of 84.26. It is also comfortably positioned above the short term MA's and the EMA's. Fundamentally the New Zealand 10Y bond is at 4.66% and the US 10Y at 3.93% at the time of writing. Japan 10Y bond is at 0.50%. Kind of a no brainer but never become to complacent with...

jvrfxalerts Updated 

Euro RSI is turning up on the daily chart. The weekly breakdown level at 1.0644 has not been retested yet. There is enough on the Euro calendar to facilitate the rise back to 1.0644, notably CPI on Thursday. Of note is, the daily low was right on the nose of the weekly close 12/5/2022 at 1.0533. That was also the last lower weekly close before the rise to...

jvrfxalerts

The dollar index and USD/JPY are testing the breakdown level for the second time. The USD 10Y is testing the breakdown level for the first time. I think this is indicative of the cross currents playing out between inflation slowing down and some not so great stock market action. And of course a still hot job market. It is the million dollar question: is it going...

jvrfxalerts

In my previous idea www.tradingview.com I questioned the possibility of the USD correcting. I think it will be just that, a correction. Euro zone CPI is coming up on Thursday and will certainly determine the near term direction for the pair. Fundamentally, the USD is still dominating the EURO and JPY, so at best I think this will only be a technical correction.

jvrfxalerts Updated 

I am a little uneasy with what the charts are telling me. I covered both EUR and AUD shorts during the London/NY overlap session. The powerful bounce off the low of 1.0655 convinced me. There MAY be a correction looming for the USD. USD/JPY are also giving bearish signals. But as always, tread lightly. Wait for confirmation.

jvrfxalerts Updated 

I was stopped out on my AUD/USD long which admittedly was a sloppy trade with not enough analysis going into it. I am now short AUD/USD at 0.6908 with a stop at 0.6944 Fundamentally the USD retail print was above expectations and conversely the AUD employment report was below expectations. I have noticed some publications speculating on the Australian housing...

jvrfxalerts Updated 

EUR/USD is still in a 140 pip range after the break of the uptrend line. USD retail sales will hopefully change the trend. Another USD hike is already baked into the price after NFP print and today's CPI. Euro zone GDP had contracted and the projected CPI on 2/23 will also contract. USD retail sales will be an indication of the resilience of the US economy....

jvrfxalerts Updated 

I am not chasing a EUR/USD short so close to the USD CPI print. Price has closed above the daily uptrend line and the daily breakout/weekly high at 1.0660 is a little too close for comfort. If anything, consider EUR/USD long at 1.0660 with a very tight stop. Next major support at 1.0638, the last weekly close and before price went up to 1.1032. Potential...

jvrfxalerts Updated 

A short term USD/JPY short with very little downside on a small position. Target 128.91 and looking to go long around there if it is after USD CPI and the short term charts agree.

jvrfxalerts

I have updated my previous idea. All the pairs broke out or down. However, all these pairs are now at support levels that can change the direction in a heart beat. Even USD/JPY is still above the support line despite the awesome falling knife price action yesterday. I did go long the moment it hit the weekly closing level and exited the trade for 104 pip profit a...

jvrfxalerts

Bear and bull flags on major USD pairs are still holding except for USD/JPY which has closed above down trend line. Note that none of these pairs retested the 4 hour post NFP levels until yesterday. This market is setting up for USD CPI next week and may stay in a range until then. 1.0669-1.0790 for EUR/USD I always draw up and down trend lines as conservatively...

jvrfxalerts Updated 

Chair Powell did not deviate from his hawkish message this morning. All the stars are aligned on the moving averages. I had previously closed my long from 128 at 132.7 and shorted back to 131.10. (I generally do not hold overnight positions before risk events like Powell's speech) After Powell I traded a bounce from 131.06-131.34. I waited for the pull back and...

jvrfxalerts

Was this spike fundamental or a technical test? A lot of indecision in the market leading up to USD CPI reading next week.