kiwiwalnut

kiwiwalnut Updated 

I'm in the view that there is still too much uncertainty in the market for there to be a clear breakout in any direction from the obvious triangle pattern others have pointed out. This pair being risk sentiment linked and closely correlated to China would warrant a gradual bullish channel trend in the immediate 2 week term due to the gradual recovery of both AU...

kiwiwalnut Updated 

PMI release risk was realised and markets traded on little optimism from a positive PMI despite overall indications of weak growth in EU. Can see long position holders taking profit at an extension level at around 1.74 for this pair. 3 core primary risk event for EUR: 1. G20 2. Next UK PM sentiment for Brexit 3. Next ECB replacement (of the 4 likely candidates,...

kiwiwalnut Updated 

Market bias is clearly against NZD as commentary mount towards central banks that have yet to jawbone their currencies down with clear announcements of forward guidance. Mario's comments were as clear as ever putting asset purchases back on the table and a quick scan of relative bearish moves EUR versus only currencies show that NZD is a close second. To put...

kiwiwalnut Updated 

Blatant continuation pattern forming as shown however while we are range bound for now, upside pressure in last 2 or so days would suggest upward break and invalid pattern. That said... technical patterns I feel are manifestations of trading psychology and therefore validated patterns are skewed towards shorter time frame charts - daily charts therefore..... A...

kiwiwalnut Updated 

NZDCAD from a technical standpoint has very little to stand on and suggests further drops and strongly suggests price action is derived from sentiment driven event - likely the 'neighborly effect' of Trump dropping tariffs on Mexico and therefore also implies the same for Canada. Certainly shrugging off key pessimistic oil supply figures. It's important to...

kiwiwalnut Updated 

Structural support confirmed from earlier assessment in related idea. Long entries for possible retracements can be considered at spot at time of posting or below 70.40 levels with stops covering recent low of 69.50 for posted targets on charts Systematic risk factors still in play around key global events therefore long carries still not suitable. Still...

kiwiwalnut Updated 

Bullish on NZD mid term and assessing risk of short positions to ride down on the potential retest of 72.200 before long opportunities. Event driven upside did not demonstrate tight spreads which suggests likelihood of short term upward momentum exhaustion. Monitoring

kiwiwalnut Updated 

Plotting idea for short strategies for this pair ATM. Risk Reversals skewing to the downside. Personally feel the one more downside leg to come with targets at 81.00 / 79.00 / 76.7 - will need large risk event to take this to this level. Size of down leg to be determined but have yet to determine where market sentiment will lean more heavily on... DPK or...

kiwiwalnut Updated 

Validated H&S reversal pattern forming on med trend line. Tomorrows UK news will likely seal the deal for confirmation of bearish reversal. If positive news then Bullish target 2.0000

kiwiwalnut Updated 

Taken off NU shorts and using gains for this trade. Potential major downside from key risk events. Likely to hear more hawkish RBNZ since inflationary measures have been building and imported inflation likely to kick in soon. Only dampener will be household debt that will continue to weigh on rate expectations since wage growth continues to be mute and...

kiwiwalnut

Drivers of oil and oil linked currencies will be in geopolitical risk events and North America output - not inventory data. OPEC output cuts = Asian buyers are turning to North America for their supplies from upticks in lagging export figures and also rising dirty tanker charter rates to US diverging from their SE Asia counterparts (Singapore) North American rigs...

kiwiwalnut Updated 

While I personally am mid term bullish on the Aussie - the only thing holding it up is very strong technical structures. If there are any bulls left in the market, it will be right here and now where they will have to defend it. Any close on the daily past the trendline will mean a quick fall as it will also be breaking: Daily 200 EMA Daily & 4h Fib...

kiwiwalnut Updated 

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kiwiwalnut Updated 

Starting to have some nice daily buy signals and bullish divergence appearing across different indicators for this pair where the Aussie has taken the worst beating + clear signs of a head & shoulders pattern forming but where neckline will complete still to be determined. 0.97xx looks to be a possible late run as the neckline. A generic play through if H&S...

kiwiwalnut

1.05 is a strong psychological level for this pair. Will not go into the macro of both countries but the Kiwi has been overly resilient compared to it's brother the Aussie dispute a very similar exposure to China. Will start seeing some passionate defense of the Aussie around this level albeit nothing near the parity levels. Currently drifting at the 1.382 Fib...

kiwiwalnut

Weekly wave count is almost textbook > riding up the correctional B wave if everything carries on as they are now. If so, will be targeting .78 ~.079 within next 3 months before starting to have bearish view all else being equal. Despite a negative carry for long positions, will not have much impact in long swings. Immediately looks like pendant / flag as per...

kiwiwalnut

May have a good short opportunity here.

kiwiwalnut Updated 

Will have to say that risk for this pair is skewed upwards from a sentiment perspective. Market consensus is that Powell will not mention anything regarding the tariffs the White House plans to announce towards the end of the week, however due to the risk of an impeding trade war, markets will likely overact to any mention of Macro areas towards trade in the Fed...