kylemusserco

kylemusserco

Looking at the chart(s) of XOM Exxon Mobile Corporation , are they signaling a short opportunity on the back of lower growth outlook(s) for 23-24'? 🛢⛽️ 📉 Not going to provide much commentary on the macro outlook for U.S. Crude Oil CL1! CL2! CRUDEOIL1! CRUDEOIL2! WTI1! WTI2!, just the charts of XOM: XOM Weekly Chart: 📊 XOM Daily Chart: 📊 XOM...

kylemusserco

Looking at the latest S&P 500 SPX (SPY ES1!) "Breadth" data , including Stocks Above 50-Day Moving Average (S5FI) & Stocks Above 200-Day Moving Average" (S5TH) — this is yet another indicator that we have been tracking since the start of the market downturn (correction/bear market) in late 21' / early 22' as it has helped to signal buy/sell signals. Here's what...

kylemusserco

Leading up to the December Inflation CPI Report that was released this last week (Thursday), markets (at a macro level) have been rallying into this last Friday — which also was coincidently the start of earnings season as banks such as J.P. Morgan (JPM), Bank of America (BAC), Citi (C), Wells Fargo (WFC), BlackRock (BLK), & others. Now that the Inflation (CPI)...

kylemusserco Updated 

Wanted to quick share a SPY chart ahead of the December Jobs Data, which is scheduled to be released tomorrow morning Friday, January 6th: UNEMPLOY USNFP Unemployment Rate (UNRATE) Unemployment Level (UNEMPLOY) Non Farm Payrolls (USNFP) Average Hourly Earnings YoY (USAHE) Participation Rate (USLFPR) Manufacturing Payrolls (USMP) Average Weekly Hours...

kylemusserco Updated 

Today, I wanted to share a chart setup that was inspired by @Badcharts that highlights the ratio of S&P 500 (SPX) / Producer Price Index (PPIACO) correlatio n — which, as @Badcharts recently highlighted on a Twitter space led (or very closely correlated) with the downturn in the S&P 500 (SPX SPY ES1!) starting in late 21’. In addition to this, I wanted to...

kylemusserco Updated 

After a sloppy last few weeks of trading to wrap up the year-end 22', SPY closed right around the (Q4/22') SPX JPM J.P. Morgan Quarterly Collar sitting right at $3,830. Looking ahead to the month of January, we have lots of upcoming data including December Inflation CPI, Jobs Report(s)/Unemployment Data (UNRATE), Producer Price Index (PPIACO), Leading Economic...

kylemusserco Updated 

I wanted to highlight how the peak (downward move) in the Producer Price Index (PPIACO) typically corresponds with the trough (upward move) in the Unemployment Rate (UNRATE) (inverse correlation), as a period of Recession takes hold on the economy, & the financial markets. I also wanted to compare the above correlation with cycle tops in WTI Crude Oil...

kylemusserco Updated 

I wanted to share this chart, as a couple of things stood out when thinking about past bull & bear secular market cycles vs. the current secular bull market that we’ve been in for the last 10+ years since the 08-09’ GFC (Great Financial Crisis). First , for those who say “investors can't or shouldn’t time the markets", I very much disagree with this logic (or...

kylemusserco

One of the biggest "shocks" in the 22' financial markets is the breaking of the long-term (weekly) trend in Interest Rates — specifically the U.S. 10-Year Treasury (US10Y), which has gone through now two long-term trend cycles since it’s history dating back to 1913. Given the inflation fight that the Federal Reserve is currently waging, while at the same...

kylemusserco

Lots of hype about the moves as of late in Tesla TSLA stock price, so I wanted to compare the Market Psychology & Cycle Timing phases to the Monthly Chart on TSLA. Do you think we are in the latter stages moving toward capitulation ? My take is that if we see a bounce from these levels into the new year (January 23'), it is likely another opportunity to...

kylemusserco

Looking at the Inverted Yield Curve Chart s of the U.S. 10yr Treasury vs. U.S. 3mo Treasury (US10Y - US03M), along with the U.S. 10yr Treasury vs. U.S. 2yr Treasury (US10Y - US02Y) — are yields signaling a topping process? Or, should we even higher yields into 23'? 4-Hour Inverted Yield Curve Chart 📊 Top Chart: US10Y - US03M Bottom Chart: US10Y - US02Y...

kylemusserco

Looking back over the last year (22'), as the saying goes "hindsight is 20-20". That said, here's the recap on the 22' market cycle against the backdrop of the Federal Reserve Interest Rate Hiking Cycle (one of the fastest on record) — while at the same time, we (investors) are all asking "What's next for 23'?" TOP SECTION DXY - Dollar Index...

kylemusserco

With a key level of the $JPM Quarterly Options Collar sitting at $3,855 on SPX ES1!, markets seemed to have been "pinned" for the time being as market makers position for the close of business ahead of the Christmas holiday. Question now is are the bulls hopes of a Santa Rally into year-end wishful thinking? 🎅 🎄 Or, we see another attempt at a short-term relief...

kylemusserco

Today's post is inspired by the work of @CMT_Association here on @TradingView, and is designed to give some insight into financial market vs. business cycle timing: We will be comparing various assets to the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) Composite Leading Indicator (USALOLITONOSTSAM) for the 🇺🇸. Keep in mind that readings...

kylemusserco

Here is a chart that calculates SPX "Fair Value", based off FED Net Liquidity variables. SPY ES1! Looking to the end of the year 2022 and the start of 2023, here are some SPX target ranges to keep in mind when taking into account the current FED Net Liquidity: Upper Bound: $4,271.69 Fair Value: $3,921.69 Lower Bound: $3,771.69 If you want a copy...

kylemusserco

This last week, markets initially rallied on the release of the "cooler" than expected November CPI (Consumer Price Index) — only to be smacked back to reality on the comments via Federal Reserve Chairman J. Powell during the December Interest Rate Decision (FOMC) meeting this last Wednesday as "higher for longer" is the communicated pathway forward for the FED...

kylemusserco

This last week, markets initially rallied on the release of the "cooler" than expected November CPI (Consumer Price Index) — only to be smacked back to reality on the comments via Federal Reserve Chairman J. Powell during the December Interest Rate Decision (FOMC) meeting this last Wednesday as "higher for longer" is the communicated pathway forward for the FED...

kylemusserco

Given that we are headed into the release of the November Consumer Price Index this upcoming (Tuesday, December 13th) and also the December Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision (Wednesday, December 14th) , are markets set up for another short opportunity into the end of January (Q1)? DIA DJIA Daily Chart Template www.tradingview.com Which camp are you in...