r90000

r90000

I'm basically putting down my thoughts here to review later. I have recently noticed an imbalance in perp positioning. I can see a general rush to re-enter closed perp positions. People are also piling into ETH to prepare for the upcoming ETF approval. Luckily for them, the market is bullish and I expect good long term spot flows. I expect the ETF to be...

r90000

I came to the conclusion that ETH has bottomed here because I believe Bitcoin has absolute bottomed, and I can see that a lot of ETH has been redistributed in this range, with strong spot and perp support in this area. A good amount of aggressive OI are underwater shorts as well. The chart also looks bullish to me. This trade has bullish fundamentals, technicals,...

r90000

I took a look at Bitcoin price action as well as the orderbooks. I think it's unlikely price will continue downwards. Instead of a grind down, I see a horizontal or vertical grind, before new highs. I believe in the idea in Bitcoin. Pattern recognition also is screaming at me to buy here. The faithful will be rewarded.

r90000 Updated 

I wanted to quickly highlight my biases over time for BTC. It does seem like I cannot accurately predict the tops and am pretty much a permabull. However recently I have gotten better at predicting local tops. I was bearish at 70k, but held onto my bullish bias because I was long from 38-44k and thought price would revert back to bullishness much earlier than at...

r90000

I am bullish on Bitcoin here, mostly because the market has absorbed a lot of ETF outflows and has not gone much lower. I see that the Coinbase premium is increasing. Bitcoin looks good here. It is low enough that it makes sense to buy from a risk / reward analysis as well.

r90000

I have been consistently bullish on Bitcoin from the local bottoms, however I did not correctly predict the monthly trend. Despite that, I am still bullish on Bitcoin at these prices, mostly because there is a very strong level of demand here. Even if price continues to go down further, I still expect a strong correction upwards here, however I suspect a trend...

r90000

My previous posts were just how I was bullish and would buy in the range selected. However I now believe the worst is behind us, we we are likely to grind up to all time highs. I also believe we have recently bottomed. Perp spot delta is back to negative levels. This is extremely uncommon in a bull market. There is significant spot interest as prices approach...

r90000

Recently we had a massive open interest wipeout for Bitcoin. We are still in a bull market. In this situation, it's possible we will fully retrace this correction, and head to all time highs. In a bull market, and OI wipe means forced sellers are done. Without forced selling, it is magnitudes more difficult for the market to go lower (would have to be spot...

r90000 Updated 

I just wanted to post this idea to document my view of the markets at this time. Recently we can see the market has sold off, with a large decrease in open interest. The market has looked weak since then, but this is typically because positions that were not closed during the initial move down end up closing, creating another wave of selling. However after that...

r90000

Significant spot interest is in the 60k range. GBTC outflows back to their 2019 range, thus are most likely going to slow significantly. The cost basis of ETF buyers is around 57k. Miners are selling Bitcoin before the halving to secure cash in anticipation of reduced revenue (while difficulty is still high). Remember that forced selling is a buying opportunity...

r90000

Half of GBTC's Bitcoin holdings have been sold. They currently hold 331k Bitcoin at the time of this post. Looking at some snapshots I took of their BTC balances, we see that balances have been around 200k to 300k over the 2019 market, with inflows drastically increasing during the 2021 bull market. It makes sense that the participants who entered of the bull...

r90000

Bitcoin has had a correction from all time highs. This was a spot driven move led by Coinbase, but in my opinion there are more buyers than sellers in the region I selected. A breakdown would be unlikely unless this is a short term trend change. I believe the most probable outcome is that Bitcoin consolidates bullishly and resolves upward after some time.

r90000

It can be difficult to estimate the future value of ATOM, however, my thesis is simple. ATOM inflation is drastically lower than just a year ago. The weak past price action has a lot to do with the extremely high emissions (that now have stopped). I believe there will be more interaction with the ATOM ecosystem in the future, especially with the rise of projects...

r90000

I believe we are in a new market paradigm. The old paradigm had exchanges taking the other side of customer trades. Most the volume and interest were in perpetual futures, therefore exchanges were incentivized to clear out customer positions by moving prices to liquidation levels. This has been true almost every time the market has been heavily long. (and it has...

r90000 Updated 

Bitcoin looks heavy. Currently there is spot selling into perp buying. Positive ETF flows were also unable to affect price positively during the 51k peaks. 700k BTC was sent to OTC desks. It's unclear if these have been sold or to be sold. This is a large number and quite worrying. This would throw my earlier estimates for price corrections out the window. I...

r90000

For technical analysis, price action is consolidating with large demand below current price. The market is in an uptrend, and we are in a bull market. The market is not overheated, in fact it is relatively cool. Thus Rune is likely to appreciate along with the market. I will now share my thoughts on why I believe RUNE has potential to 10x. Rune has a...

r90000

I believe Bitcoin ETF net inflows will increase year over year, similar to the gold ETF. This selling of GBTC is temporary and must subside at some point. If we can guess the correct range that can absorb the selling, that is likely a good entry. Currently there is strong spot demand below 38k, to the tune of hundreds of millions. ETF purchasers are also...

r90000

Bitcoin has been on a rally for the past year. However we are approaching heavy resistance for the first time. Combined with suspected buyer exhaustion, and a decreasing amount of buyers willing to support 40k+ prices, after the ETF and its initial wave of inflows. I strongly suspect a correction is due for Bitcoin. This correction is unlikely to reach 25k, as...