Bitcoin Daily Update (day 283)

I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below and Click here to get my complete trading strategy! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business.

For a variety of reasons I no longer believe that $2,718 will be the bottom of the 2018 Bitcoin’ bear market. I am now very confident that we will return to $1,000 before finding a bottom. That is due to Tyler Jenks’ hyperwave theory and the Point of Control on the Visible Range Volume Profile with > 2 year look back | Calling for $35 ETH before the end of 2018, however I do not believe that will be the bottom. Strongly expect ETH to return to single digits before the end of 2019 | Calling a top in the S&P 500 at $2,634


Previous analysis: “At this point I think it is about 70% that we remain in the channel and breakdown $3,000. That being said I do not believe that the risk:reward justifies an entry.”
Position: Short ETH:BTC 0.03109 | Short EOS:BTC from 0.0008057 | Short ADA:BTC from 954 sats | Short LTC:BTC from 0.00778 | Short XRP:BTC from 8710 sats | Short USDT:USD from $0.99


Patterns: Bear channel / hyperwave
Horizontal support and resistance: S: $3,330 | R: $3,430
BTCUSDSHORTS: Closed below 4 MA and finding resistance after bearish crossover with 9, however still above trendline
Funding Rates: Longs receive 0.0252%
Short term trend (4 day MA): Barely closed above
Medium term trend (9 day MA): Acted as perfect resistance on todays candle and continues to hold vs the current open
Long term trend ( 33 day MA): Trending down
Overall trend: Bearish
Volume: Nothing of note
Candlestick analysis: Watching for the current to close below today’s body
Ichimoku Cloud: C Clamp is getting more pronounced now after it looked like it was resolving itself yesterday
TD’ Sequential: Bearish price flip | Weekly A13
Visible Range: 1 month lookback shows high volume nodes from $3,600 - $4,400, has been holding as strong resistance
Price action: 24h: +0.8% | 2w: -20.2% | 1m: 46.9%
Bollinger Bands: MA at $3,736 and bottom band starting to trend down again
Trendline: Holding as strong resistance
Daily Trend (Using 1h 33 MA to identify daily trend): Turned bullish and currently being tested for support. I would expect consolidation around it for 3 - 9 hours while we work towards another trendline retest. That would also form a h&s
Parabolic SAR: $4,114
RSI: Back above 30 and looks like it is trying to trend up
Stochastic: %K flattened out but %D is still angled down
Last Day Rule: Need to break $3,641 for setup day

Summary: Love seeing the 9 MA and trendline working together so well, both holding as clean resistance against today’s rally. On the other hand it looks like a slightly higher low on the daily chart. If that turns into a close above the trendline / 9 MA then I will be expecting a return to the 33 MA.

The 1h chart is actually very interesting. The 33 MA being angled up told me to expect support in that area on this last sell off. Turning around a trend that is angled that sharply takes time. Therefore I expect us to consolidate around the 33 hour MA into a trend line retest.

I would expect that the form a h&s with a target that is roughly in line with horizontal support.


Nevertheless I am still staying away from re entering shorts. If we do bounce then that will provide a great selling opportunity. If we don't then I will be keeping a close eye on potential long entries. Staying away from Bitcoin at the prices and focusing on alts continues to be my gameplan.