Before Entering
Start the by writing down predictions for what I expect to happen before the end of the day.
1 day | 1 week | 1 month predictions: Make projections for what is expected to happen during the listed time frames
Previous analysis/position: Review yesterday’s analysis to remember what your thought process was
Patterns: Established patterns outweigh other indications
Horizontal support and resistance: Horizontals are most important when no pattern or trend is present. Remember that prices range 70% - 80% of the time
BTCUSDSHORTS: Analyze the trading view chart with patterns, support/resistance, trendlines and indicators. Do not short when short sellers are at or near ATH’ levels. This is when you are very likely to get squeezed out of the position. Then check the long:short ratio. 60% long:40% short indicates a good balance for a move to the upside. If it gets to 65%+ on either side then a squeeze is expected
Funding Rates: If it gets too expensive to fund a long or short then the price is likely to react accordingly
12 & 26 EMA’s (calculate % difference): Check for crossovers and know how far away the price can get, historically speaking, from the EMA’s. This will help identify oversold/overbought conditions
50 & 128 MA’s: Same as above
FIB’s: Very important for identifying major levels of support and resistance
Candlestick analysis: Learn more here
Ichimoku Cloud: Here is a great resource' if you would like to learn more
TD’ Sequential: Here and here are great resources
Visible Range: Volume = resistance or support. This indicates where the major volume has occurred and is very useful in identifying major s/r
BTC’ Price Spreadsheet: Calculate price change over the following periods: 12h, 24h, 1w, 2w, 1m. This will help to identify being overbought or oversold
Bollinger Bands: Very useful in ranging markets. Super squeezes indicate upcoming volatility
Trendline: Very useful in identifying support and resistance as well as reversal when the trend breaks
Daily Trend: Not necessary, but I like to know what the market is doing right now
Fractals: Very useful in setting stop losses. Up fractals should not be broken in a bear market and down fractals should not be broken in a bull market
On Balance Volume: Helps identify what the ‘big money’ is doing. Pay close attention to divergences
ADX: Helps to identify if there is a trend and how strong it is. If -DI > +DI then bearish. If -DI < + DI then bullish. If ADX < 20 then ranging market. If ADX > 25 then trending market
Chaikin Money Flow: Use it the same as the OBV
RSI (30 setting): Used to identify tops in parabolic markets, according to parabolic burst theory
Stoch: Can provide good signals, although I find it rare. Nevertheless the Stoch on the 3d has predicted price movements very well in the 2018 BTC' bear market
End with reviewing predictions and making a summary.
After entering
Managing stop losses and avoided greed is all that remains.
Stop Losses
Are set slightly under the prior low (if long) and slightly above the prior high (if short). This will usually be illustrated by William's Fractals. For each open position go through the following process on a daily basis.
SPX: New low established with down fractals at $2,800. Just broke up fractal and established new high. Adjust stop to $2,794
BTC: Has not established a new lower high or up fractal. Stop remains above prior high
Start the by writing down predictions for what I expect to happen before the end of the day.
1 day | 1 week | 1 month predictions: Make projections for what is expected to happen during the listed time frames
Previous analysis/position: Review yesterday’s analysis to remember what your thought process was
Patterns: Established patterns outweigh other indications
Horizontal support and resistance: Horizontals are most important when no pattern or trend is present. Remember that prices range 70% - 80% of the time
BTCUSDSHORTS: Analyze the trading view chart with patterns, support/resistance, trendlines and indicators. Do not short when short sellers are at or near ATH’ levels. This is when you are very likely to get squeezed out of the position. Then check the long:short ratio. 60% long:40% short indicates a good balance for a move to the upside. If it gets to 65%+ on either side then a squeeze is expected
Funding Rates: If it gets too expensive to fund a long or short then the price is likely to react accordingly
12 & 26 EMA’s (calculate % difference): Check for crossovers and know how far away the price can get, historically speaking, from the EMA’s. This will help identify oversold/overbought conditions
50 & 128 MA’s: Same as above
FIB’s: Very important for identifying major levels of support and resistance
Candlestick analysis: Learn more here
Ichimoku Cloud: Here is a great resource' if you would like to learn more
TD’ Sequential: Here and here are great resources
Visible Range: Volume = resistance or support. This indicates where the major volume has occurred and is very useful in identifying major s/r
BTC’ Price Spreadsheet: Calculate price change over the following periods: 12h, 24h, 1w, 2w, 1m. This will help to identify being overbought or oversold
Bollinger Bands: Very useful in ranging markets. Super squeezes indicate upcoming volatility
Trendline: Very useful in identifying support and resistance as well as reversal when the trend breaks
Daily Trend: Not necessary, but I like to know what the market is doing right now
Fractals: Very useful in setting stop losses. Up fractals should not be broken in a bear market and down fractals should not be broken in a bull market
On Balance Volume: Helps identify what the ‘big money’ is doing. Pay close attention to divergences
ADX: Helps to identify if there is a trend and how strong it is. If -DI > +DI then bearish. If -DI < + DI then bullish. If ADX < 20 then ranging market. If ADX > 25 then trending market
Chaikin Money Flow: Use it the same as the OBV
RSI (30 setting): Used to identify tops in parabolic markets, according to parabolic burst theory
Stoch: Can provide good signals, although I find it rare. Nevertheless the Stoch on the 3d has predicted price movements very well in the 2018 BTC' bear market
End with reviewing predictions and making a summary.
After entering
Managing stop losses and avoided greed is all that remains.
Stop Losses
Are set slightly under the prior low (if long) and slightly above the prior high (if short). This will usually be illustrated by William's Fractals. For each open position go through the following process on a daily basis.
SPX: New low established with down fractals at $2,800. Just broke up fractal and established new high. Adjust stop to $2,794
BTC: Has not established a new lower high or up fractal. Stop remains above prior high
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