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Launch Chart
1 day ago
33
1857
1. As a novice trader, one of the biggest mistakes you can make, especially after having had a number of successful trades, is thinking you know what you are doing when you actually don´t. This will be the cause of every trading error you have the potential to make.
2. It takes absolutely no skill at all to place a winning trade. It does to consistently do it.
3. Be unoriginal. Save the innovative strategies and custom indicators for when you have learned how to trade.
4. Do not judge a trade on its result. A good trade can turn out a loser. A bad trade can turn out a winner.
5. Don’t focus too much on making money in the beginning. As you are still improving, it should not be your goal to make money. It should be your goal to make good trades.
6. In trading, there is no supervisor or manager reviewing every decision before it’s made. Success, for better or worse, is totally self-dependent. This is not for everybody. Find out if it’s for you.
7. Though this site has many of its members emphasizing on technical analysis, don’t underestimate the impact of fundamentals on price action. Understanding them will increase your edge in trading.
8. Don’t overemphasize the importance of finding the best trading system. Equally important are psychology and money management.
9. Online chat rooms can be good learning tools and from time to time very entertaining, but beware of entering trades that are not part of your trading plan or trade setups that you have not studied for yourself.
10. Eliminate your mistakes. Do this on a daily basis, mistake per mistake. Eventually you will run out of mistakes to make.
2. It takes absolutely no skill at all to place a winning trade. It does to consistently do it.
3. Be unoriginal. Save the innovative strategies and custom indicators for when you have learned how to trade.
4. Do not judge a trade on its result. A good trade can turn out a loser. A bad trade can turn out a winner.
5. Don’t focus too much on making money in the beginning. As you are still improving, it should not be your goal to make money. It should be your goal to make good trades.
6. In trading, there is no supervisor or manager reviewing every decision before it’s made. Success, for better or worse, is totally self-dependent. This is not for everybody. Find out if it’s for you.
7. Though this site has many of its members emphasizing on technical analysis, don’t underestimate the impact of fundamentals on price action. Understanding them will increase your edge in trading.
8. Don’t overemphasize the importance of finding the best trading system. Equally important are psychology and money management.
9. Online chat rooms can be good learning tools and from time to time very entertaining, but beware of entering trades that are not part of your trading plan or trade setups that you have not studied for yourself.
10. Eliminate your mistakes. Do this on a daily basis, mistake per mistake. Eventually you will run out of mistakes to make.
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22 hours ago
22
1423
Multiple potential advanced patterns setting up on the USDJPY all around the same area. We've yet to break out of this consolidation, but if we do before Friday's Jobs number, we have a good location to look for our next short.
Before I get a million nasty messages no, I don't think dollar weakness and Yen strength long term, but that's what makes me a "Trader" and not an "investor" I don't have a long term bias when trading on shorter term charts. I take the setups as they come bullish or bearish despite my personal fundamental outlook.
Before I get a million nasty messages no, I don't think dollar weakness and Yen strength long term, but that's what makes me a "Trader" and not an "investor" I don't have a long term bias when trading on shorter term charts. I take the setups as they come bullish or bearish despite my personal fundamental outlook.
20 hours ago
1
734
This is a hypothetical trade.
However, Technically, a trend following trade looks imminent.
The overall trend remains bearish
The retraced towards the main falling trend line
and 50 percent of the latest bearish wave
Another key horizontal high is at 310.00.
RSI near overbought
Having that said, odds favor a short position.
http://thefxchannel.com/ , vote and subscribe
However, Technically, a trend following trade looks imminent.
The overall trend remains bearish
The retraced towards the main falling trend line
and 50 percent of the latest bearish wave
Another key horizontal high is at 310.00.
RSI near overbought
Having that said, odds favor a short position.
http://thefxchannel.com/ , vote and subscribe
12 hours ago
5
612
05 MAR 2015 - Tech-Note:
Friends,
A quick explanation of what TG-Hi, Lo and TG-Hix and TG-Lox are - Cut/pasted from a private message:
WHAT ARE TG-Hi/Lo; HOW DO THEY COMPARE TO TG-Hix/Lox?
----------------------------------
TG-Hi and TG-Lo are are named target, as opposed to numbered target, hence called nominal target.
Nominal targets represent a low-probability level of being attained, but a high-probability level of reversal if and once price gets there.
Hi refers to the bullish placement relative to price, whereas Lo is its antipod, bearish placement.
Because the markets will be subjected to a varying degree of momentum, the model also ascribes a much lower, and in fact, rarer occurrence, whereby price would reach an extreme reversible level, which explains the "x" in the targets, or TG-Hix and TG-Lox.
All TG-Lo/Hi targets will be in RED, whereas their extremes will be in PURPLE.
Most recently, I have added numbers in BLUE which represent trigger level that, if reached, should prompt the trader to turn to a higher timeframe, in the order of 4 times the current frame (e.g.: M15 x 4 = H1, H1 x 4 = H4, ... etc) as attainment of this level is simple the rarest of events, and suggests a higher-frame interference by typically better funded players, stronger institutions - This augmentation in timeframe should be done even once the purple target is in effect and the technical analysis should be redrawn or at least re-considered at the newer, higher frame, simply to preempt any cooptation by stronger actors - I will post this explanation on few other charts as well - Thank you for asking and remaining curious. - David Alcindor
----------------------------------
... cont'd in thread ...
----------------------------------
David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Denver, Colorado - USA
-----
Twitter:
@4xForecaster
LinkedIn:
David Alcindor
See our All-Time TradingView Top Authors:
- https://www.tradingview.com/people/all/
------
.
Friends,
A quick explanation of what TG-Hi, Lo and TG-Hix and TG-Lox are - Cut/pasted from a private message:
WHAT ARE TG-Hi/Lo; HOW DO THEY COMPARE TO TG-Hix/Lox?
----------------------------------
TG-Hi and TG-Lo are are named target, as opposed to numbered target, hence called nominal target.
Nominal targets represent a low-probability level of being attained, but a high-probability level of reversal if and once price gets there.
Hi refers to the bullish placement relative to price, whereas Lo is its antipod, bearish placement.
Because the markets will be subjected to a varying degree of momentum, the model also ascribes a much lower, and in fact, rarer occurrence, whereby price would reach an extreme reversible level, which explains the "x" in the targets, or TG-Hix and TG-Lox.
All TG-Lo/Hi targets will be in RED, whereas their extremes will be in PURPLE.
Most recently, I have added numbers in BLUE which represent trigger level that, if reached, should prompt the trader to turn to a higher timeframe, in the order of 4 times the current frame (e.g.: M15 x 4 = H1, H1 x 4 = H4, ... etc) as attainment of this level is simple the rarest of events, and suggests a higher-frame interference by typically better funded players, stronger institutions - This augmentation in timeframe should be done even once the purple target is in effect and the technical analysis should be redrawn or at least re-considered at the newer, higher frame, simply to preempt any cooptation by stronger actors - I will post this explanation on few other charts as well - Thank you for asking and remaining curious. - David Alcindor
----------------------------------
... cont'd in thread ...
----------------------------------
David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Denver, Colorado - USA
-----
Twitter:
@4xForecaster
LinkedIn:
David Alcindor
See our All-Time TradingView Top Authors:
- https://www.tradingview.com/people/all/
------
.
5 hours ago
4
293
AUD/JPY has been in a dominant bearish trend since December 2014, continuing to print lower swing highs and lower swing lows.
We now have an excellent opportunity to trade with momentum on our side as 6 confluence factors join together to create the perfect storm.
Confluence Factors:
1. Trading With Dominant Bearish Trend
2. Rejection of Key 94.00 S/R level
3. Rejection of 50% Fibonacci Retracement
4. Price remains contained under 50 EMA
5. Rising Wedge - Bearish Continuation Pattern
6. Rejection of KEY Weekly Trend Line
We now have an excellent opportunity to trade with momentum on our side as 6 confluence factors join together to create the perfect storm.
Confluence Factors:
1. Trading With Dominant Bearish Trend
2. Rejection of Key 94.00 S/R level
3. Rejection of 50% Fibonacci Retracement
4. Price remains contained under 50 EMA
5. Rising Wedge - Bearish Continuation Pattern
6. Rejection of KEY Weekly Trend Line
6 hours ago
6
273
If TA was easy, there should be a no brainier trade in the next 72 hours to Buy all the Bitcoin you can off the support bounce. Now that we have established "stability" (relatively speaking of course) above the 50 day SMA we are pulling back to it as it turns its own trend from down to up. In addition there is horizontal support in the $255 area from the daily chart and Fibonacci's on the 2hr chart.
Bitcoin is the most unpredictable asset in the world (other than Central Banks Dropping Pegs that should never have been in place), but there is a very low risk (longer-term) trade coming up:
1. Buy off the $250-260 Bounce
2. Add to your trade on a break of $300 for a final target of $330 and/or 200 day SMA
2a. Take some profits at $300 and then add at $280 or on a break of $300
Good luck traders
Most updates come via Twitter: @Tone_LLT
Bitcoin is the most unpredictable asset in the world (other than Central Banks Dropping Pegs that should never have been in place), but there is a very low risk (longer-term) trade coming up:
1. Buy off the $250-260 Bounce
2. Add to your trade on a break of $300 for a final target of $330 and/or 200 day SMA
2a. Take some profits at $300 and then add at $280 or on a break of $300
Good luck traders
Most updates come via Twitter: @Tone_LLT
1 day ago
7
368
With the huge drop of this pair thanks to the relatively good numbers announced for USD and the unchanged interest rate for CAD, we are sooner near to completion of this Cypher pattern than expected. It's not quite in the reversal zone yet but a little further down during tomorrow's early session is certainly possible.
14 hours ago
8
547
Fundamentally there are several forces at work on this pair. There is a safe-haven demand for the Yen after China’s downgrade of its growth outlook creating some selling pressure while the policy divergence between the FED and the BoJ creates buying pressure. On the daily timeframe it has been trading inside a triangle consolidation pattern since December last year. The next critical data point to be released impacting this pair will be US employment data, which may provide fresh impulses. Meanwhile, on the hourly timeframe, we can see the contours of a bearish Bat pattern developing. Price has comfortably passed the B point and travelled 70% on the way from C to the potential reversal zone (PRZ). With this, the set up qualifies as a trade candidate and it goes on my watch list.
When defining the potential reversal zone (PRZ) for a Bat pattern, we look at the projection of three harmonic levels. I: the 886 retracement of XA, II: an extended AB = CD pattern (in this case 1618 AB = CD) and III: a BC expansion (in this case 2000 BC). This defines an extremely tight zone, just 5 pips wide, represented by the orange lines in the chart. There is structure inside this zone (a 4H resistance level), which increases the edge of a reversal. Should price action test the PRZ and reverse convincingly, I would enter short. SL goes 10 pips behind X. TP1 = 382 retracement of AD and TP2 = 618 retracement of AD.
There are 50 pips to be made (if this pair follows the script) and the trade has a reward – risk ratio of 2.5!
UPDATE: Price action tested the potential reversal zone without reversing convincingly as it formed two spinning tops in the zone before a spike exceeded X. This invalidated the pattern so I did not enter the trade. Nothing was risked and nothing was lost. On to the next trade!
When defining the potential reversal zone (PRZ) for a Bat pattern, we look at the projection of three harmonic levels. I: the 886 retracement of XA, II: an extended AB = CD pattern (in this case 1618 AB = CD) and III: a BC expansion (in this case 2000 BC). This defines an extremely tight zone, just 5 pips wide, represented by the orange lines in the chart. There is structure inside this zone (a 4H resistance level), which increases the edge of a reversal. Should price action test the PRZ and reverse convincingly, I would enter short. SL goes 10 pips behind X. TP1 = 382 retracement of AD and TP2 = 618 retracement of AD.
There are 50 pips to be made (if this pair follows the script) and the trade has a reward – risk ratio of 2.5!
UPDATE: Price action tested the potential reversal zone without reversing convincingly as it formed two spinning tops in the zone before a spike exceeded X. This invalidated the pattern so I did not enter the trade. Nothing was risked and nothing was lost. On to the next trade!
1 hour ago
10
176
It's been a very slow week for me, but luckily Jason is picking up the slack. Going into Friday's Job Report I have no intention of entering any new positions aside from this potential bullish bat pattern on the Kiwi. NZDUSD is in a very interesting position as our HTF trend has bounced off previous structure resistance, yet our LTF trend has recently created a NSH and is retesting previous structure support. Consolidation perhaps?? Hope so since that would work well for pattern traders. VERY IMPORTANT. IF this trade does not trigger before tomorrow mornings top-down analysis THEN I will remove all orders as I want no parts of the crap shoot that is the Non-farm Payroll report.
As always it's Thursday so that also means the release of my weekly WEEKEND REVIEW video. ( https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UvH5rMqPKuo&list=UUVveEks3MWZqOsvzTF_LGQg ) In this week's video "Dollars Don't Matter" I talk about this NZDUSD trade, how we can help each other out in the initial phases of backtesting an updated version of an inside bar breakout strategy that i used to trade, and of course an update of how Jason and i have down int he Syndicate. here's a clue...I haven't done much lol
Lastly make sure you clear your schedules for early April ;-)
As always it's Thursday so that also means the release of my weekly WEEKEND REVIEW video. ( https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UvH5rMqPKuo&list=UUVveEks3MWZqOsvzTF_LGQg ) In this week's video "Dollars Don't Matter" I talk about this NZDUSD trade, how we can help each other out in the initial phases of backtesting an updated version of an inside bar breakout strategy that i used to trade, and of course an update of how Jason and i have down int he Syndicate. here's a clue...I haven't done much lol
Lastly make sure you clear your schedules for early April ;-)
19 hours ago
0
198
We must be prepared for some fundamental news on thursday.
This bat pattern can work well if there are positive news for the EU.
Good luck.
Important: the fixed target is only for information purposes, you must use your own trade management system if the trade is open.
Good luck.
This bat pattern can work well if there are positive news for the EU.
Good luck.
Important: the fixed target is only for information purposes, you must use your own trade management system if the trade is open.
Good luck.
23 hours ago
3
277
So... On Monday I made a video forecast for the coming week. We discussed a lot of cool stuff, that honestly you won't hear anywhere else. So first off check out this video to see how precise the concepts worked for us
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ok_SLDU2f4g
ICT Orderblocks
In the video we discussed orderblocks, taught by Inner Circle Trader. The concept behind them is that 1. smart money is the force that moves markets 2. smart money sells into buying. Therefore, a bearish orderblock is a green candle (smart money sells into buying) that sees an immediate, violent movement down ward. In the video we go through this more. But I have illustrated that black line to show the precision of this concepts. The forces that move the market were active at this level and it shows.
Equilibrium
The fib illustrates our equilibrium concept. This is hard to explain in text, so just watch the video. No one else will show you this stuff.
Ballers Fair Value
So, ballers do not overpay for bitcoins. We have some measure of what fair value is. In the video, I show how awesome the 14day MA is, the times its most effective, and how to use it. We used equilibrium to indicate that we were very extended for this surge up. At the same time, we were moving further away from fair value as defined by our 14 day MA.
Due to all these factors, We should be looking to buy only when price gets back to fair value.
If this intrigues you, subscribe for more. There's just no one talking about any of this stuff, and this is how to crush the market. And this is only like 10% of my stuff. I could make a video every day for a month and still have more to say about the bitcoin market. SRS.
https://twitter.com/BallerTrader
http://ballertrader.com/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ok_SLDU2f4g
ICT Orderblocks
In the video we discussed orderblocks, taught by Inner Circle Trader. The concept behind them is that 1. smart money is the force that moves markets 2. smart money sells into buying. Therefore, a bearish orderblock is a green candle (smart money sells into buying) that sees an immediate, violent movement down ward. In the video we go through this more. But I have illustrated that black line to show the precision of this concepts. The forces that move the market were active at this level and it shows.
Equilibrium
The fib illustrates our equilibrium concept. This is hard to explain in text, so just watch the video. No one else will show you this stuff.
Ballers Fair Value
So, ballers do not overpay for bitcoins. We have some measure of what fair value is. In the video, I show how awesome the 14day MA is, the times its most effective, and how to use it. We used equilibrium to indicate that we were very extended for this surge up. At the same time, we were moving further away from fair value as defined by our 14 day MA.
Due to all these factors, We should be looking to buy only when price gets back to fair value.
If this intrigues you, subscribe for more. There's just no one talking about any of this stuff, and this is how to crush the market. And this is only like 10% of my stuff. I could make a video every day for a month and still have more to say about the bitcoin market. SRS.
https://twitter.com/BallerTrader
http://ballertrader.com/
1 day ago
2
1082
I don't often go to the 1hr time frame, but I'm hunting around for a better long entry on a retracement. This is just something to keep on the radar for the time being. A move above 'C' will invalidate this pattern, and really both 'C' and 'B' are ever so slightly not "perfect" (see below). On the whole this looks to be a well formed pattern. This would be a long trade/buy opportunity, which would only be taken at the 'D' completion point... if price gets there.
The butterfly contains an ABCD pattern preceded by a significant low (X) or high. This pattern is found only at significant market tops or bottoms.
Requirements:
'B' point should be a .786 retracement of the XA leg
'C' point should be either .382 or .886 retracement of AB
Swing from A to D should be a 1.272 or 1.618 extension of XA
'D' Must be below 'X'
A valid ABCD must be observed in the extension move (AD)
*Ideally*, the two triangles will be nearly equal in time, XAB and BCD. Otherwise, look for BCD to complete between 1.272 and 1.618.
A move beyond 1.618 renders the pattern invalid and suggests a strong trend continuation in progress.
The butterfly contains an ABCD pattern preceded by a significant low (X) or high. This pattern is found only at significant market tops or bottoms.
Requirements:
'B' point should be a .786 retracement of the XA leg
'C' point should be either .382 or .886 retracement of AB
Swing from A to D should be a 1.272 or 1.618 extension of XA
'D' Must be below 'X'
A valid ABCD must be observed in the extension move (AD)
*Ideally*, the two triangles will be nearly equal in time, XAB and BCD. Otherwise, look for BCD to complete between 1.272 and 1.618.
A move beyond 1.618 renders the pattern invalid and suggests a strong trend continuation in progress.
21 hours ago
0
160
Details on the chart.
Just take one trade at a time.
Best Regards.
Just take one trade at a time.
Best Regards.
1 day ago
8
371
I am looking to short as the price has completed a double top at the top of rising channel. Stochastic crossed overbought region confirming the sell signal. Good luck
22 hours ago
0
133
Although now the NZD is the strongest currency, after a sharp fall we can expect a bounce at this level.
The price has already tested the PRZ and reacted well.
We have also and extreme RSI suggesting a pullback (see back).
The targets coincide well with the 0.38 and 0.61 fib and previous levels of S/R
Best Regards.
The price has already tested the PRZ and reacted well.
We have also and extreme RSI suggesting a pullback (see back).
The targets coincide well with the 0.38 and 0.61 fib and previous levels of S/R
Best Regards.
1 day ago
8
189
A follow-up on the chart I posted last Monday. The first of the predicted bat patterns has come to a completion now.
Don't go long just yet though, we have a Draghi speech tomorrow which could have an impact on price action. I'd wait for either a good confirmation and entry signal, either a completion of the second pattern.
There might not be that much upside to the EUR with the QE kicking in next week.
Don't go long just yet though, we have a Draghi speech tomorrow which could have an impact on price action. I'd wait for either a good confirmation and entry signal, either a completion of the second pattern.
There might not be that much upside to the EUR with the QE kicking in next week.
1 day ago
0
324
We've had a Crab pattern (grey pattern) complete nicely at the 293 level. I'm looking for a retracement to the 0.618 area around 255-260 before moving higher to the 300-330 region.
We also had a Bat pattern completion (just short of the 0.886XA but I'm counting it anyway as most would shadow the level rather than aim for a direct hit) which resulted in a 0.50 retracement of the the CD leg before moving higher to the Crab completion.
We also had a Bat pattern completion (just short of the 0.886XA but I'm counting it anyway as most would shadow the level rather than aim for a direct hit) which resulted in a 0.50 retracement of the the CD leg before moving higher to the Crab completion.
