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Multiple potential advanced patterns setting up on the USDJPY all around the same area. We've yet to break out of this consolidation, but if we do before Friday's Jobs number, we have a good location to look for our next short.

Before I get a million nasty messages no, I don't think dollar weakness and Yen strength long term, but that's what makes me a "Trader" and not an "investor" I don't have a long term bias when trading on shorter term charts. I take the setups as they come bullish or bearish despite my personal fundamental outlook.

There are several EURO news events this morning (pmi´s and retail sales). Depending on whether they are favorable or unfavorable as a whole, we could have an opportunity to trade out of those news events with the reversal of an advanced price pattern that is nearing its completion on the 4H timeframe. Price is already testing the potential reversal zone and this set up qualifies as a “trade candidate” and goes on my watch list.

When defining the potential reversal zone (PRZ) for a Gartley pattern, we look at the projection of three harmonic levels. I: the 786 retracement of XA, II: an AB = CD pattern and III: a BC expansion converging in the same area (in this case 1272 BC). This defines a tight zone, about 26 pips wide, represented by the orange lines in the chart. Should price action reverse convincingly, I would enter long. SL goes 10 pips behind the next support level. TP1 = 382 retracement of AD and TP2 = 618 retracement of AD.

There are 220 pips to be made (if this pair follows the script) and the trade has a reward – risk ratio of 2.0!

I don't often go to the 1hr time frame, but I'm hunting around for a better long entry on a retracement. This is just something to keep on the radar for the time being. A move above 'C' will invalidate this pattern, and really both 'C' and 'B' are ever so slightly not "perfect" (see below). On the whole this looks to be a well formed pattern. This would be a long trade/buy opportunity, which would only be taken at the 'D' completion point... if price gets there.

The butterfly contains an ABCD pattern preceded by a significant low (X) or high. This pattern is found only at significant market tops or bottoms.
Requirements:

'B' point should be a .786 retracement of the XA leg
'C' point should be either .382 or .886 retracement of AB
Swing from A to D should be a 1.272 or 1.618 extension of XA
'D' Must be below 'X'
A valid ABCD must be observed in the extension move (AD)
*Ideally*, the two triangles will be nearly equal in time, XAB and BCD. Otherwise, look for BCD to complete between 1.272 and 1.618.
A move beyond 1.618 renders the pattern invalid and suggests a strong trend continuation in progress.

Potential bearish Bat Pattern completion at a pretty decent resistance level.

There's not much at all that has caught my attention in the Forex market and I've got about an hour left before my trading day starts, so just having some fun by looking around and seeing what else is out there.

This pair has been trading sideways for a couple of days, oscillating around the 1.25 level. And as we know, consolidation breeds advanced price patterns. Today there is a host of Canadian and US data coming out that could give it an impulse. The key US data point today will be the ADP employment change. Its the prelude to NFP and might give us a hint of what that figure will be like on Friday. The key Canadian news event will be the rate statement by the BoC, where we will find out whether the BoC will cut or hold. Yesterdays positive GDP figure could mean they wont cut (yet). We shall see.

On the technical side, we have the contour of a bearish Gartley pattern developing on the 4H timeframe. Price has travelled 40% from C towards the potential reversal zone (PRZ) and this set up qualifies as a “trade candidate” for my watch list. When defining the potential reversal zone (PRZ) for a Gartley pattern, we look at the projection of three harmonic levels. I: the 786 retracement of XA, II: an AB = CD pattern and III: a BC expansion converging in the same area (in this case 1414 BC). This defines a tight zone, about 20 pips wide, represented by the orange lines in the chart. Should price action test the PRZ and reverse convincingly, I would enter short. SL goes 10 pips behind X. TP1 = 382 retracement of AD and TP2 = 618 retracement of AD.

There are 134 pips to be made (if this pair follows the script) and the trade has a reward – risk ratio of 2.0!

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This is a hypothetical trade.
However, Technically, a trend following trade looks imminent.

The overall trend remains bearish
The retraced towards the main falling trend line
and 50 percent of the latest bearish wave
Another key horizontal high is at 310.00.
RSI near overbought

Having that said, odds favor a short position.

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With the huge drop of this pair thanks to the relatively good numbers announced for USD and the unchanged interest rate for CAD, we are sooner near to completion of this Cypher pattern than expected. It's not quite in the reversal zone yet but a little further down during tomorrow's early session is certainly possible.

I am looking to short as the price has completed a double top at the top of rising channel. Stochastic crossed overbought region confirming the sell signal. Good luck

As SP500 has been losing momentum in the last 6 months and seems to be reaching what could be the TOP (In time and price), it becomes increasingly relevant to take a step back a reevaluate extreme scenarios.

In any case what seems clear is that SP500 could be above 10,000 in the years 2030.

The question is whether SP500 is going to suffer a 50%+ dive in the next 2 to 4 years and if that correction will be slow/painful or will come as a fast shock (maybe the second then the first).

As Governments have already used all their easing ammunitions, if there is a problem, it may take longer to resolve.

This is all vague at this stage. The take away is that markets often work in trio and a third leg down of 50% is possible.

Of course, thinking of 50% down seems ridiculous when most managers currently wonder if SP500 will reach 2300 this year but it was the same in 2000 and 2007: nobody could foresee what was coming and everybody was looking up.

Note: in 2013 and 2014, many prominent analysts were forecasting large corrections... They are instinct now. The move is therefore more likely to occur.

With multiple bounces of various support levels and the breakout of the long term downtrend trendline, finally we should see some strength in AUDUSD. I have two main targets for an upside swing, however, pair might retrace back to 0.7780 before / if going to hit the target. On the downside note, breakout below 0.7740 would invalidate these analyses and could once again send pair lower toward 0.7640 area.

A follow-up on the chart I posted last Monday. The first of the predicted bat patterns has come to a completion now.

Don't go long just yet though, we have a Draghi speech tomorrow which could have an impact on price action. I'd wait for either a good confirmation and entry signal, either a completion of the second pattern.

There might not be that much upside to the EUR with the QE kicking in next week.

Does not feel like the 50 period SMA can hold this up... sticking to original call from March 1st on the pull back.

Removing the 1998/2000 excess allows to extract an hypothetical channel.

The bigger channel is there for the general idea.

The Channel that actually matters for trading (the dashed one), would also be at 12,500 in Jul15.

To keep on the radar if manages to reaches that target on time.

Other note: by july at 12,500 the rally from Oct14 to Jul15 will look similar to the Sep99/Mar00 climax

Update:

The top is likely to be in place.

Top stickiness above 2090.

Key levels:
2090 - Below which dynamics could be faster.
2000 - Support likey to be broken decisively this time
1900 - Probably a buy to 2140 / Jul15

My feeling is that this may be happening.
Everyone has been expecting $300 plus, but to me this looks like a 3 wave impulse ending at 295.
Also there's the divergence on the CCI that has been present the whole way up.
CCI failign on the red overhead resistance too.
And RSI is topping .
If so I'm looking for a buy in the retrace zone.
Comments please. (ignore my EW numbering as usual DanV) :-)
Thanks a lot

So... On Monday I made a video forecast for the coming week. We discussed a lot of cool stuff, that honestly you won't hear anywhere else. So first off check out this video to see how precise the concepts worked for us

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ok_SLDU2f4g

ICT Orderblocks
In the video we discussed orderblocks, taught by Inner Circle Trader. The concept behind them is that 1. smart money is the force that moves markets 2. smart money sells into buying. Therefore, a bearish orderblock is a green candle (smart money sells into buying) that sees an immediate, violent movement down ward. In the video we go through this more. But I have illustrated that black line to show the precision of this concepts. The forces that move the market were active at this level and it shows.

Equilibrium
The fib illustrates our equilibrium concept. This is hard to explain in text, so just watch the video. No one else will show you this stuff.

Ballers Fair Value
So, ballers do not overpay for bitcoins. We have some measure of what fair value is. In the video, I show how awesome the 14day MA is, the times its most effective, and how to use it. We used equilibrium to indicate that we were very extended for this surge up. At the same time, we were moving further away from fair value as defined by our 14 day MA.

Due to all these factors, We should be looking to buy only when price gets back to fair value.

If this intrigues you, subscribe for more. There's just no one talking about any of this stuff, and this is how to crush the market. And this is only like 10% of my stuff. I could make a video every day for a month and still have more to say about the bitcoin market. SRS.

https://twitter.com/BallerTrader
http://ballertrader.com/