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We are in a consolidation phase. Let the market decide which way to go and buy/sell the breakout.
Possible targets are on the chart. Atleast 33% profit within a month after breakout should be possible.

Are you ready ? : ]

Unless Bitcoin manages a lasting break above 300, the apex of the descending cone points to 40 by year end.

The band is becoming very narrow. to achieve this would mean a lowering in realised volatility which would mean an acceptation of the new price paradigm (a slow death in other words).

I like watching bitcoin only because for me it is a great case study of human behaviour (more than other indices that have macro forces affecting the price too).

“There will come a time in your life when you lose something that matters to you. You'll fight for it and you won't win. But what really matters isn't the war you're waging, it's that you don't lose the person you are, in the midst of the battle.”
― J. Sterling, The Perfect Game

... Remember those words once I've taken your account from you.

TEST YOUR TRADING SYSTEM
I will not go deep into this, because it quickly becomes a shouting match on who has the best system, which is usually more about ego than fact. It is sufficient to say that I have seen / know of profitable traders who use fundamentals, price patterns, Elliot waves, renko, moving averages, structure levels, pitchforks, trend rules and custom indicators. I will not get into which system is the best, because I have not back tested them all personally. This does not imply that it does not matter what system you use. Far from it. You need a system that gives you an edge. And the only way to know if it does, is to back test it against a relevant amount of data.

ADD FILTERS
Adding filters to your strategy aims at improving your win rate by eliminating losers. It’s a way to get the odds on your side over a larger number of trades. Examples of filters you could add are: trade with the daily trend, trade with the fundamental direction, filter out unprofitable patterns, don’t trade during news events, only trade reversal patterns that complete at a key structure level, only trade breakouts after a retest of the trend line, add an extra indicator (e.g. stoch or sma line crossover or rsi divergence) or use a particular candlestick as a final entry signal. There might be a price to pay: if a particular filter delays your entry point, it can improve your win rate while reducing your reward – risk.

INCREASE THE OPPORTUNITY FACTOR
The opportunity factor relates to how many trades your method allows you to take per day / week / month. If by adding filters you are left with just a few possible trades a week, your win rate can go up, but your overall profit might suffer because there would be fewer trade candidates passing through to your filters. This will leave you with fewer trades to contribute to your overall profitability. You can increase this factor by adding more currency pairs to your portfolio or by adding trading hours to your schedule. When adding pairs, be aware of the correlation to the ones already in your portfolio.

IMPROVE YOUR TRADE MANAGEMENT RULES
Trade management relates to profiting from the trades you decide to enter. It aims at maximising your average winner while minimizing your average loser. The key is having rules that let winners run and exit losing trades without hesitation. Aim for realistic profit targets by reviewing the profit logic of your trades. Predefine a risk that you accept and don’t exceed. One of the ways you can do this, is by managing your trades in a multi-position manner, aiming for several profit targets. Take profit at various stages, as the market makes it available to you and roll your stop loss to break even or a profit protection point as the trade progresses.

DISCILPLINE AND CONSISTENCY
Once you have the right system, rules and filters in place, you just need to trade your plan consistently day in and day out. Monitor your susceptibility for making errors and eliminate them one by one. Relaxed, concentrated and mindful like a Zen Monk. Don’t overtrade by chasing entries. Don’t under-trade by arbitrarily skipping valid opportunities. Be organized and prepared. A random, inconsistent approach to trading leads to random, inconsistent results that will never be optimal. So plan your trade and trade your plan.

TYING IT ALL TOGETHER
Simply put, your expectancy per month is the opportunity factor multiplied by both the win rate and the average winner less the opportunity factor multiplied by both the lose rate and the average loser. For the example from my prior topic (see the link under Related Ideas), we know that the calculation was as follows: expectancy per month = 90 x 55% x €120,00 – 90 x 45% x €80,00 = €2.700,00. I have tried to give some tips and trick on how to influence each of the variables in this calculation with the aim to arrive at an improved mix, leading to an improved profitability.

wave a is in progress as a smaller expanding diagonal. ((v)) is a zigzag so expect abc up to 320.86 to complete wave a of 5 of the larger expanding diagonal

In general, I am expecting a continuation of GBP strength the coming week, drawing support from steady economic growth with the revised GDP coming out as expected and recent labour market data coming our positive. The Japanese Yen on the other hand is under pressure with the BoJ revising their growth forecast lower and most of the recent Japanese data disappointing the markets. This pair has been on a strong bullish run since the beginning of February, gaining 900 pips and it currently sits around the 618 retracement of the swing low that started December last year, creating a zone of resistance. The recent uptrend is starting to lose momentum with price action on the daily trading sideways for the last few days and failing to print a higher high on the 4H after the last outside return, showing a clear bearish divergence condition on the RSI.

Could it be a top has been formed, at least for now? Its possible, because we may have a double top pattern developing on the 4H timeframe. It is not certain the pattern will complete, but I put this trade candidate on my watch list just in case. I am describing the most conservative play here (known as the 2618 trade), with the most conformation possible. The scenario is depended on a number of steps happening before entering the trade and as such its a true “if… then… scenario”. A double top is a double top if the wick of the second meets at least the candle close of the first, while the candle close of the second does not exceed the wick of the first. In other words, PA tried to make a higher high, but failed. This retest of resistance with less strength also follows from the regular bearish RSI divergence at the second top.

We need the following steps to occur before entering a trade: (1) price breaks below and closes below the neckline, (2) price retraces back up, until 618 retracement of the prior leg down and (3) price stalls, stops and reverses at this retracement level. In that case, SL goes above the highest high of the tops. TP1 = structure level where the retracement started, TP2 = 1272 extension of prior leg down. In terms of trade management, when TP1 is hit I would take profit on 1 position and roll my stop loss to breakeven, enjoying a risk free trade hunting for TP2.

There are 200 pips to be made (if this pair follows all the steps in the script) and the trade has a reward – risk ratio of 2.2!

My bias is for Aussie to find support on the new monthly pivot. This is the first time in months Aussie will be opening above monthly pivot - last attempt saw gap below on open - it will have a roof of the weekly pivot, but the weekly pivot is higher again this week from last week. There is lots of traffic for price to move up trends and pivot points - plus price came very close to R3 on the weekly this week - the response usually is a gravitation back to pivot point or equal response to S3. Given all that if price finds support on the monthly pivot and closes above the weekly pivot then I would anticipate price to attempt new monthly trend. I will follow with the 8hr pivots.

And the GLD splits the two. Noticing that GLD trending up. What does that say about pro players leans to the markets near future action? GLD will miror VXX , and cross SPY on its way down IMO.

Trade: Long

Gold been tough for longs in the last 3 weeks.

The last chance is probably here.

Long 20% 1213 stop 1175 on close.

1. As said, price faced resistance at the 38.2% retracement level from Weekly TF.
2. I can see price retracing to 1.517-1.524 zone before making another push to the up side

notes on chart, possibilities.

Lets add TLT and oil. TLT rending up , OIL at an historic moment. WHICH WAY DOES IT GO? Oversupply, demand less, contracting world needs less. Scary version.... drum role please, what if OIL is actually in one big ABCD pattern? The page isn't low enough for me to draw the line at "D" that low. That would be your big correction bears (SPY).

This pair was moving to the UP side very nicely but as we can see the prices recently are not touches its upper trend line so it is indicating that pair is losing its bullish strength ...

I would usually be short here but the fact that the weekly MACD has just crossed up is making me cautious. The price could either follow the blue arrows (consolidating within the dark red triangle more) or break out now (green arrow).

I am new to charting so comments / criticisms are welcome.

EDIT: The attached chart has the MACD scaled properly. Sorry