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Watch-out España traders, the IBEX is challenging the major key long term sideways resistance or ceiling. Typically, in sideways markets, we expect price to reverse to the downside. However, this time might be different, as the price test the level for sixth time. The latest test(March 2) was followed by a minor pullback and a bullish pin bar.

I would think twice before going short at that resistance for now. why? For the first time , the ECB is pumping money for free with its new asset purchase program. History and the FED have taught us what happens to equities when central banks go full throttle.

We might see a reactive correction but i advise waiting for a candlestick confirmation for such scenario and look only for limited downside potential.

A breakout above 11235 resistance with at least a weekly closing would confirm the bullish breakout. I wont suggest targets for this scenario as this idea is just a general opinion...

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There are many variables shown on this graph, the most important one is the fact that TSLA is at the lowest PSR (Price-to-Sales Ratio) going back to the summer of 2013 when it bottomed near 6 times sales. TSLA is now at 7.9 times sales and could very well be suffering from the new round of cars at the Geneva Auto Show where the Volkswagen Diesel Electric looks stunning in both styling and raw power from dual electric motors and relatively low cost to the good old Model-S and Model-D. There is nothing like good old fashioned competition in the marketplace. Tesla is facing it from all fronts and investors are nervous. For now, until profits roll in, and until the Model-X (gull-wing SUV crossover) is sold, TSLA is just "holding on".

What I'm seeing here is that TSLA is in a confirmed downtrend and it has fallen a similar percentage amount as it had in the fall of 2013 (See -40% drop) and the spring of 2014 (See the -34% drop) with its current 37% drop off of the high back in September which happened after a great earnings report and a string of analyst initiates and upgrades and very high targets set. The current correction has seen almost 14 days in a row where volume and price range expanded on the downside signifying strong selling by investors and traders. That kind of continuous selling should be alerting us to look for a bottom down here somewhere, which is why I have this as a "LONG" idea here.

The old level of valuation isn't holding at 10 times sales, so it is trying to find somewhere down here to hold.

Call me a die-hard fan of Tesla as I know I'd like to own one. If every one of my subscribers here would just send Tesla $1 each month, then I could lease 3 or 4 of them. One for me and the rest for you, in a lottery of my lucky subscribers. TradingView, can you manage that project for me? (I'm kind of kidding, but I'd love to see that happen).

Cheers.

Tim
March 5, 2015 11:35PM EST 200.63 last

Here's a new DISCOVERY - to start the uptrend from the lowest high (not necessarily the lowest low). With trend calculated in this more logical way, it makes everything get CRYSTAL CLEAR in the SPY here. This observation makes the uptrend start at an earlier date, which puts a few more days at the mode for the uptrend and allows a little more advance and then watch this:

1. The red box on the downtrend formed a 15 period mode around the 202 level, which FAILED to create the necessary drop to the 193 area. So, what did the market do? It rallied for 15 periods once it spent an entire session above 202. Look at the red arrow with 15 on top. That is when the failure-time expired.

2. The purple box is the uptrend from the "LOWEST HIGH" in January. From that point, 10 days formed around the 205 level and set up the rally for 10 periods starting on the 11th (marked with a purple arrow UP). NOTE HOW 10 EXPIRED RIGHT AT THE HIGHEST LOW OF THE RALLY. That is excellent.

3. The blue box is a mode that was forming that would launch us into the next advance, but it failed to build to 10 or 11 to continue the accumulation and that implies that the buyers have run out of power and the sellers are in control.

4. The purple box FSILED TO REACH 215 as implied by the accumulation - so that means the buyers are weak here and need to be tested.

5. NOTE my proprietary RangeMove (RgMov) indicator which is FLASHING A VERY OMINOUS DANGER SIGNAL because it has gone to a 2-month LOW while the price action is very close to a 2-month high. Why is this happening and what does it mean? It means that lately, the price action has been mostly on the downside. If you look at the price action since Feb 17th you will notice that mostly the entire day of trading has been on the downside. It gaps down, and then trades up from there, but the net-net of it is that the trading action is to the downside. That IMPLIES heavy selling by someone. It could be anyone at this point, we don't really know.

6. NOTE the Range Expansion to the downside today and on Tuesday. These are signs that the "PATH OF LEAST RESISTANCE" is DOWN.

So everyone, there is support down at the last mode at 205, then at the 15 period mode at 202. If it punches through there then look for 193, which was implied in the last decline.

This is quite a collection of events collaborating the decline we are in at the moment. STAY TUNED!!!

1. As a novice trader, one of the biggest mistakes you can make, especially after having had a number of successful trades, is thinking you know what you are doing when you actually don´t. This will be the cause of every trading error you have the potential to make.

2. It takes absolutely no skill at all to place a winning trade. It does to consistently do it.

3. Be unoriginal. Save the innovative strategies and custom indicators for when you have learned how to trade.

4. Do not judge a trade on its result. A good trade can turn out a loser. A bad trade can turn out a winner.

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6. In trading, there is no supervisor or manager reviewing every decision before it’s made. Success, for better or worse, is totally self-dependent. This is not for everybody. Find out if it’s for you.

7. Though this site has many of its members emphasizing on technical analysis, don’t underestimate the impact of fundamentals on price action. Understanding them will increase your edge in trading.

8. Don’t overemphasize the importance of finding the best trading system. Equally important are psychology and money management.

9. Online chat rooms can be good learning tools and from time to time very entertaining, but beware of entering trades that are not part of your trading plan or trade setups that you have not studied for yourself.

10. Eliminate your mistakes. Do this on a daily basis, mistake per mistake. Eventually you will run out of mistakes to make.