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Market summary

S&P 500ES1!
Nasdaq 100NQ1!
Bitcoin IndexXBT
U.S. Dollar IndexDX1!
Dow 30YM1!
Russell 2000RTY1!
AppleAAPL
Advanced Micro Devices IncAMD
Amazon Com IncAMZN
Tesla, IncTSLA
Netflix, IncNFLX
Meta Platforms, IncMETA
Crypto Market CapTOTAL
BitcoinBTCUSD
EthereumETHUSD
SOL/USDSOLUSD
UniswapUNIUSD
Luna / U.S. DollarLUNAUSD
EUR/USDEURUSD
GBP/USDGBPUSD
USD/JPYUSDJPY
AUD/USDAUDUSD
USD/CADUSDCAD
USD/CHFUSDCHF
GoldGC1!
SilverSI1!
Crude OilCL1!
Natural GasNG1!
CornZC1!
BitcoinBTC1!
US 10YUS10Y
Euro 10YEU10Y
Germany 10YDE10Y
Japan 10Y YieldJP10Y
UK 10YGB10Y
India 10YIN10Y

Editors' picks

Visualizing Business/Market Cycles Through Market Momentum: 1Visualizing Business and Market Cycles Through Market Momentum: Part 1 Effect of liquidity: Change in regime: It is often said that markets are discounting mechanisms, anticipating changes in the business cycle. I believe that it is generally true, and while it has been less true for most of the last two decades, that it is about to become true again. It is my view that the bull markets of the last fifteen years were largely an artifact of the flood of liquidity that followed the 2008 financial crisis. The deflationary forces created by globalization and technology enabled continued central bank activism and allowed fiscal authorities to run massive deficits without readily apparent repercussions. The combination of low inflation and immense liquidity effectively changed the nature of the markets. The willingness of monetary authorities to support asset prices rendered the business cycle benign and economic signals generated by the markets less useful. Bullish trends became longer and more entrenched, dips better supported, overbought conditions persisted longer while oversold conditions were fleeting. Counterproductive trading and investing behaviors and bad analysis were continuously bailed out by policy. I believe that a policy inflection has occurred. Central banks and fiscal authorities will become more and more constrained as inflation becomes a greater risk than deflation. Asset prices will again become more connected to the real economy and less connected to policy. Effective analysts recognize that changes in a fundamental regime can damage (or enhance) the effectiveness of a favored techncial approach. This series is going to focus on a technique that became less effective as asset prices were driven uniformly higher but that is now likely to become informative again. When I worked in the institutional setting I would place hundreds of assets, ratios, spreads of individual corporate bonds and equities into a 4 quadrant MACD momentum matrix. I would then condense the raw data into thematic groups and see what the matrix implied about the business cycle. In that setting I had help and systems to accomplish this. But, most of the value can be extracted by following thirty or so auctions and ratios. While there is no end to the number of permutations that can be utilized inside the matrix, most of the value can be extracted in a few hours at quarter end. The illustration is the distilled matrix info. In part 2 I will cover how the matrix is constructed and in subsequent installments how the information can used to help inform a macro viewpoint and investment process. And finally, many of the topics and techniques discussed in this post are part of the CMT Associations Chartered Market Technician’s curriculum. Good Trading: Stewart Taylor, CMT Chartered Market Technician Taylor Financial Communications Shared content and posted charts are intended to be used for informational and educational purposes only. The CMT Association does not offer, and this information shall not be understood or construed as, financial advice or investment recommendations. The information provided is not a substitute for advice from an investment professional. The CMT Association does not accept liability for any financial loss or damage our audience may incur.
Editors' picks
6
A glitch in the energy matrix?Something weird is bubbling in the energy space. Before we delve in, let us briefly explain what the S&P Energy Select Sector Index represents. Some of you might already be familiar with XLE, the ETF which tracks the S&P Energy Select Sector Index (IXE). This Index seeks to represent the Energy sector by aggregating a basket of names in the sector. A breakdown of the top 10 Index components shows the Oil & Gas majors taking up roughly 75.41% of the Index, and 91% of the total Index component being Oil & Gas exposure, while the other 9% being energy-related equipment and services. CME E-mini S&P Select Sector Futures, XAE, tracks the aforementioned energy index, with the added benefit of margin offset and deep liquidity. Now given that the S&P Energy Select Sector Index is made up of mostly big Oil & Gas names, we would expect some correlation between the prices of oil and the Index itself. A look at both from the depths of the low in March 2020 till now shows both products moving closely together up until recently, where zooming in we see… the glitch in the matrix.... The 2 have been trading generally in lockstep since the bottom in 2020, but have diverged in a peculiar fashion, since the middle of July, with the energy sector gaining roughly 28% since, while Oil tumbles close to 30%! Has the exuberance in energy stocks been overdone? In our opinion yes and we see a couple of headwinds for the Energy Sector in general: 1) The impressive rally from the depths of COVID has been driven by rising oil prices and share buybacks. Oil prices are now faltering, and tightening Financial conditions/Recession could slow or stop buybacks. 2) Political pressure to apply a ‘windfall tax’ on oil and gas companies could eat into energy companies’ earnings. 3) Stabilized tension from the Russian-Ukraine means lower uncertainty and pressure on oil prices, as supply and demand find equilibrium from alternative sources. 4) China’s continued zero COVID policy means low demand from the world’s largest importer. From a price action perspective, XAE is trading just slightly off the all-time high range, which could prove to be an area of resistance. All things considered, we think this presents an opportunity to trade this divergence either by; 1) Shorting the XAE outright, which means to take a directional view on the Energy Index. A riskier trade. 2) Pair the XAE with the Crude Oil contract, by shorting the XAE and taking a long on the Crude Oil contract. A more risk-controlled approach. Crude Oil Trades at a contract unit of 1000 barrels and the E-mini Energy Select Sector trades $100 x S&P Energy Select Sector Index. Each Index point is 100$ on the CME E-Mini Energy Select Sector Futures contract (XAE) and $1000 on the Crude Oil Futures. One way to construct this spread could be to calculate the contract value difference between the 2 products; Spread = 100 x XAE1! – 1000 x CL1! You can construct the chart on TradingView by typing the above into the product search bar. This will show the Chart of the spread between the 2 products, which is close to the all-time high now. As such we will lean on the short side of this spread, given the outperformance of the Energy Index relative to Crude Oil. We will also keep an eye on the upcoming OPEC meeting on December 4th to gauge the path forward for Oil Prices. The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify trading set-ups in real-time and express our market opinions. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com Disclaimer: The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios. A full version of the disclaimer is available in our profile description. Sources: www.cmegroup.com www.cmegroup.com www.cmegroup.com www.ssga.com oilprice.com
Editors' picks
4
NVDA Weekly Harmonic Elliott Wave AnalysisOverview: let's review the expectations of the previous update: We have peaked for wave (I). Wave (II) to take a considerable time to complete. For now, I am considering a triple zigzag to from in wave (II), but that's no guarantee and as time passes, we will gain a better insight. Update: NVDA followed the proposed path beautifully. I think we have completed wave x of (II) as a triple zigzag and next will have wave y of (II), which I think is going to be slow and bore many out of their positions. Also, we will probably move inside a channel parallel to the major one as shown on the daily chart. Note that as time passes, I remove some of the subwaves' counts of previous waves to have a cleaner chart.
Editors' picks
7
SPY Weekly - Taking a step back and looking at 14RSI!Watching and learning from others. It is always a great idea to take a step back and look at the BIG Picture Took the time to go through the weekly chart to 'see' the divergences myself and "WHAT IS NEXT?" 200 week simple moving average is significant. Just when AKA 2021 ; and 2000/2008 the 200MA seams so far away - reality kicks in and we need a wake-p call! The hunt is on to find some other coorlation in the QQQ; small caps and sectors - to gain the edge!
Editors' picks
Long
12
EUR/USD is approaching critical resistance - tighten stopsEUR/USD generally remains pretty bid, but it is approaching tough overhead resistance at 1.0636/39 - the 2020 low and the 55-week ma and we suspect that the market is going to struggle to clear this tough area of resistance, you might want to tighten stops on long positions. Disclaimer: The information posted on Trading View is for informative purposes and is not intended to constitute advice in any form, including but not limited to investment, accounting, tax, legal or regulatory advice. The information therefore has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on Trading View only. All illustrations, forecasts or hypothetical data are for illustrative purposes only. The Society of Technical Analysts Ltd does not make representation that the information provided is appropriate for use in all jurisdictions or by all Investors or other potential Investors. Parties are therefore responsible for compliance with applicable local laws and regulations. The Society of Technical Analysts will not be held liable for any loss or damage resulting directly or indirectly from the use of any information on this site.
Editors' picks
Long
13
Mayfair's Ultimate Guide to BitcoinHere is a link to my partner's post on the same thing: I have made my post shorter, but added direct links to the predictions he has made, so you can read how right he has been over a very long time. If you can be bothered to click each one, then you will learn a LOT about how institutionalised markets work. We at Mayfair bang on about what institutional involvement in Bitcoin actually means. Most people think it means BTC goes up. This is not the case at all. Most of you will realise this now, but sadly at the time we were ignored. In fact, what the big players do is know your psychology very well indeed, and they exploit you to get the profits they want. The chart shows your group psychology, and the stages are taken from the Wall Street Cheat Sheet You are: (A) Being manipulated and (B) The architects of your own destiny, because it's only human to react the way you do. Have a look at the @Mayfair_Ventures posts I have chronicled on the chart, and see how good the calls are. They are great calls, because we understand the psychology, and we actively change our own to match that of the big players. The pressure for all crypto holders to sell is insane now. Mental pressure, being applied by the big boys. Because they know what you are like. Most of you know I have bought BTC on a DCA strategy aiming at a 3-year return, using spot not margin. This was so I can ride out lows like these. I'm keeping mine. When you are short at the top and it's going against you, it always goes further than you ever thought it could, and the news is always blazingly good. It's the same thing. Take a look at my post on news here: We will be doing a big year-end review stream in a week or two, where you can tune in and get shown how to change your mindset to the winning side. Look out for it.
Editors' picks
Long
33
VISA About to start a historic Bull Cycle similar to post 2009This is Visa Inc. (V) on the 1W time-frame. The primary pattern since the July 26 2021 All Time High (ATH) has been a Channel Down with the price hitting yesterday the top of the pattern for the first time since August 15. The August 15 candle rejection was also made (after multiple attempts) on the 1W MA100 (green trend-line). The pattern is similar to the one Visa has been trading in since mid 2019. This idea compares the two eras: 2019 - 2022 and 2008 - 2011. In 2011, the stock was trading within a similar Channel Down as the accumulation pattern, with its Lows contained around the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level. Following the break above the 1W MA100, the price made one last Lower High, pulled-back and then broke above the pattern aggressively. If the same formation continues to be repeated then we can have a break above the Channel Up by mid December. See also how the RSI and MACD patterns are similar. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ** Please LIKE 👍, SUBSCRIBE ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support me, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- You may also TELL ME 🙋‍♀️🙋‍♂️ in the comments section which symbol you want me to analyze next and on which time-frame. The one with the most posts will be published tomorrow! 👏🎁 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Editors' picks
Long
10
Ok, here comes the Fed Pivot, what's next?With all the chatter on the Fed Pivot, we think it’s worth exploring, what happens after a Fed Pivot or Fed Pause. Let’s break down the discussion into two camps, a Fed Pause, defined as a pause in policy rate hikes, and a Fed Pivot, loosely defined as reversal of policy rates aka rate cuts. To keep things in context, we will look at the effect of the Fed’s Pause/ Pivots on Major Indices, the Dollar and Inflation rates. First let’s review where we are at now. The recent release of the October CPI numbers has spurred 3 notable things: 1) It knocked the dollars off its unprecedented rally since the start of the year. 2) It has given a little more credibility to the slight downward shift in inflation, with 2 consecutive lower readings. 3) It marked a local low in major equities indices Naturally, the question is, have we bottomed? Or is this a slight breather on the elevator down… To answer this question, we look at 2 similar periods in the past, where the fed pauses, then cut rates after. These past examples could be useful in providing some clues as to where markets might be headed next. Dot Com Period in 2000 Between June 1999 and May 2000, rates were raised before taking a 7-month pause, following which rate cuts ensued in Jan 2001. During this period, equities turned lower, with the DJI falling another 30% while the S&P & Nasdaq another 40% before finding the bottom. The bottom was only in when the dollar clearly broke its uptrend, inflation peaked & turned lower and after rounds of rate cuts. In fact, and somewhat eerily, the dollar broke close to the 108 level, almost exactly where the dollar broke its current uptrend. The Great Inflation of the 1970s In the 1970s episode, rate hikes were paused from Aug 1973 to Feb 1974 before a cut in 1974. Untamed inflation forced the fed into another hiking cycle from March 1974 before the final onslaught of cuts from July 1974 onwards. This rate pause was then followed by another over 30% decline in equities. Again, we find that the bottom was only in after Inflation peaked and the Dollar clearly broke its uptrend, while the Fed cut rates. If this framework of using the Dollar, Peak Inflation & Rate levels holds, a keen observer might note the similarities with what we are looking at now. So, if the current dollar break holds and Inflation truly peaks, then the Fed Pivot will be the last piece of the puzzle to mark the bottom. So, when will the Fed Pivot you might ask? Using the CME FedWatch Tool, we see the market implied probability of a fed pause starting in May 2023, followed by a pivot in September 2023. In our view, this is still quite far away and if historical precedence holds, there are still ways to go before we are close to call the bottom. Additionally, market timing and expectation of a rate pause and cut have continually been re-priced higher and further over the past year. We will not be surprised if the timing and level of pause and cut get repriced unfavorably again after the FOMC minutes release this week. From a price action perspective, the S&P seems to be near the upper band of the channel in which it has been trading since the downtrend started. This could once again prove to be an area of resistance, which could present an attractive short compared with the other 2 indices. The average of the past 3 declines from the upper to lower band range, took roughly 54 days and 700 points. Taking that as a benchmark, we set our stops at 4150 index points, close to the previous levels of resistance, and a profit target at 3500 index points, close to the average of the past declines and lower band of the channel. Each Index point is 50$ on the CME E-Mini S&P500 Futures contract and $5 on the CME Micro E-Mini S&P500 Futures. We will watch with keen eyes if the Dollar breakdown holds and listen for any change in the Fed’s timeline. If history is any guide, we remain bearish on equities, given the uncanny level of dollar index, inflation peak and Fed's policy path as we see now. The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify trading set-ups in real-time and express our market opinions. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com Disclaimer: The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios. A full version of the disclaimer is available in our profile description. Sources: www.forbes.com www.thebalancemoney.com
Editors' picks
36

See all editors' picks ideas 

Snaps

28 Nov

A turn up for the books

Black Friday makes people go a little crazy sometimes. We’ve all seen the pictures of people crushing through the doors to try and get that OLED TV that’s 75% off. But while people are crushing through physical doors, there’s a whole world of people crushing through digital ones – preferring to do their deal hunting online. Amazon has historically reigned supreme in this department, but this year things have had a bit of a shakeup. Let’s dive in.

Explore all daysExplore all days
WMT
A Black Friday breakthrough

Amazon’s crown as the Black Friday king is looking wobbly, with Walmart claiming the glory this year.

HSI
Zero-hope policy?

It looks like China might be making a U-turn on its easing of zero-covid rules and it hasn’t done much good for the markets.

BNBUSD
Too hot to handle

Serum looks like the latest of SBF's projects to get caught up in the crossfire of FTX's collapse.

ATVI
The calm before the Blizzard

There’s a storm brewing over at Activision Blizzard, and it’s been whipped up by the Federal Trade Commission.

DOGEUSD
Working like a Doge

While other cryptos contemplate how to get out of the slump, Doge is keeping its tail wagging with a little help from Elon Musk.

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News flow

Keep readingKeep reading

Sparks

Curated watchlists to kickstart your market research.

See all sparks 

Community trends

NIO IncNIO
Jpmorgan Chase & CoJPM
Amazon Com IncAMZN
Nike, IncNKE
Costco Wholesale CorporationCOST
AMC Entertainment Holdings, IncAMC
Enphase Energy, IncENPH
Addex Therapeutics LtdADXN
Marathon Digital Holdings, IncMARA
GoogleGOOG

Highest volume

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Trade ideas

The ChainLink LINK price is preparing for a good growthToday, we will consider the LINKUSDT price chart on the 3-day time frame For the last six months, the LINKUSD price has been in a wide consolidation range of $5.50 - 9 Trading volumes in the range show that buying prevails, and therefore we can conclude that the "big player" is gaining long positions. If in the coming days, the LINK price does not fall below $6, then in our opinion this is a signal for strong long. The first task of buyers is to break out of this consolidation upwards, that is, to confidently consolidate above $9. In the medium term , we see the following targets for the growth of the ChainLink token price: $12.50 - $14.80 - $17.50 _____________________ Did you like our analysis? Leave a comment, like, and follow to get more
Long
25
Bitcoin can bounce off the resistance line and start fallHello to the TradingView community and my followers, please, if you like ideas, don't forget to support them with likes and comments, thank you so much and we'll get started. Today, I want to talk to you about the BTC/USDT chart. On the chart, we can see how Bitcoin formed a triangle and is trading inside. Now the price is close to the resistance line, but it can retest it and bounce back. I expect that after a possible retest of resistance line, the price can bounce to breakdown the support line and continue to decline. Therefore, I see our target at a level 16050. This is my opinion, I really hope it will be useful for you.
47
BTC massive 2 years wedge (no one mentioned it before)BTC / USDT BTC printed massive 2-years falling wedge And no one is talking about it ,we need some more time to spend inside it ,but once price breakout the falling wedge resistance …new bullcycle will start The bottom seems to be located in the confluence between : - target of double top (bearish patten) - lower trendline of falling wedge According to many indicators We are in capitulation stage of the cycle so don’t give up ..bottom should be very close Bear cycle is a pain for majority of traders but an opportunity for smart ones Support my efforts and Share your opinions with me in comment section below ⬇️
Long
43
Bitcoin "Channel Trend" Buying Climax Bitcoin "Channel Trend" Buying Climax Hourly Time Frame Analysis Since the 21st of November, Bitcoin has traded in the Ascending Channel Pattern range, and on the 25th of November, Bitcoin breached the Channel Trend Resistance with average volume, which should have improved exit odds and caused the price to begin consolidating in the range of 16385 $ to 16685 $. As a result, we can anticipate two possibilities for price action based on the current movement. Probability 1 : Price may break through the breakout level and price will rise to the resistance level of 17520 $. Probability 2 : Once the Lower Low structure is broken, we may see a reversal trend, and then price may fall to the next support level of 15960$. Happy Trading
48
XRPUSD H4: 30% correction warning distribution TP 25 CENTS SL/TPWhy get subbed to me on Tradingview? -TOP author on TradingView -2000+ ideas published -15+ years experience in markets -Professional chart break downs -Supply/Demand Zones -TD9 counts / combo review -Key S/R levels -No junk on my charts -Frequent updates -Covering FX/crypto/US stocks -before/after analysis -24/7 uptime so constant updates 🎁Please hit the like button and 🎁Leave a comment to support our team! XRPUSD H4: 30% correction warning distribution TP 25 CENTS(SL/TP)(NEW) IMPORTANT NOTE: speculative setup. do your own due dill. use STOP LOSS. don't overleverage. 🔸 Summary and potential trade setup ::: XRPUSD 4hours chart review ::: updated/revised outlook ::: BREAKDOWN OF BEAR FLAG SETUP ::: distribution in range / weak chart ::: limited upside / expect dump from HIGHS ::: weakness will last for 4-8 weeks ::: LOG SCALE chart ::: not a great looking chart ::: bear flag on bear flag setup ::: aggressive FED rate hikes guaranteed now ::: CLEAN REJECTION AT recent highs ::: S/R was re-tested produced WEAK bounces ::: final BOUNCE possible now before DUMP ::: also noteworthy sequence of lower highs ::: recommended strat: SHORT at MARKET ::: final TP BEARS is 25CENTS ::: 35-40% correction possible next ::: 4-8 weeks in December/January ::: right now no upside in this market ::: position traders should wait for ::: better entry prices later after ::: final PUMP possible into FED to trap BULLS ::: recommended strategy: SHORT SELL RIPS/ RALLIES ::: TP BEARS is +40% gains - near 25cents ::: BULLS stay out until correction is over ::: SWING TRADE: SHORT/HOLD IT ::: correction run not over yet ::: good luck traders! ::: BUY and get paid. period. 🔸 Supply/Demand Zones ::: N/A ::: N/A 🔸 Other noteworthy technicals/fundies ::: TD9 /Combo update: N/A ::: Sentiment mid-term: BEARS/CORRECTION/40% ::: Sentiment short-term: BEARS/breakdown of BEAR FLAG RISK DISCLAIMER: Trading Crypto, Futures , Forex, CFDs and Stocks involves a risk of loss. Please consider carefully if such trading is appropriate for you. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always limit your leverage and use tight stop loss.
38
Eth tested the resistance line, but can bounce back and go downHello, dear traders, we are new here, so we ask you to support our ideas by asking "SUBMIT" and COMMENTS, and you can also freely ask any questions in the comments, we will try to answer everyone, thank you guys. Today we will look at the price of ETH/USDT. I draw your attention to the graph, where we can see how Ethereum approached the resistance line and tested it. Now the price is close to the resistance line, but can bounce back and start to decline. In my opinion, the price can start to go down and reach the support area. So our goal I set the zone 1090-1075. I expect this scenario, so be prepared for the next moves. Thank you for your time, we hope our work suits you and you are satisfied, we wish you a nice day and great profits
19
Bitcoin - The bears will crash BTC again! (Great opportunity) From November 21 to November 24, we had a pretty nice uptrend. It lasted only 3 days, and the structure of the uptrend is bearish. As per my Elliott Wave analysis, it was an ABC correction because I can see only 7 waves, which is a typical correction with an extended wave A. Bitcoin is the most bearish asset, and it's absolutely a pleasure to short Bitcoin or Ethereum! A new week started, and Bitcoin broke out of the symmetrical triangle pretty hard. October and November are extremely bullish months for Bitcoin, but this time we dumped, and Bitcoin continues in free fall. The right question is now: When will we reach 10,000? not if we reach 10,000. After we reach 10K, I think we will have a massive bounce back to 15K or so. Make sure to follow me so you do not miss important information on this expected bounce! If you want to trade bitcoin, the best strategy is "short only." So wait for pullbacks and shorts. I expect the ultimate bottom for Bitcoin to be between 6500 and 10300 USD. I am very happy to provide you with these analyses; stay strong!
17
BTC - Two Possible Road-Maps!🗺Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, as known as theSignalyst. BTC has been stuck in a range between 15600 and 17000 This week the range is getting narrower as BTC is trading inside the red symmetrical triangle. 📌 1- Bearish Scenario: If BTC breaks below the gray zone 16300, then further bearish movement would be expected till the green 15700 zone. and then if BTC breaks below 15600 from Daily, then further long-term bearish movement would be expected. 📌 2- Bullish Scenario: If BTC breaks above the upper red trendline then we will expect to text the orange minor resistance. and then if BTC breaks above the orange zone 17100, then further short-term bullish movement till the 18000 green zone would be expected. 🗒 Which scenario do you think is more likely to happen? and Why? Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Rich
64
🔴 BTC/USD : NEW Week TA : 11.27.22The price is still fluctuating in the range of $16,500 and does not follow a particular trend. Please note that based on the previous analysis, this level is still one of the important supply zones and I expect the price to be corrected to the lower levels mentioned in the previous analysis. But it is possible that the price will make an upward move to collect liquidity and then fall, so my view is bearish now! The Previous Analysis : As you can see, the price moved below the level of $15,600 and after collecting liquidity, it faced buying pressure and was able to grow to $16,660. Now the price is in a supply range and can move again to lower levels (FVG), this demand zone is between $15,800 and $16,030, and the important bullish order block will be between $15,470 and $15,800! If a new upward movement starts, its first target is $16,850 to $17,030! Follow me for more analysis & Feel free to ask any questions you have, I'm here to help. ⚠️ This Analysis will be updated ... 👤 Arman Shaban : @ArmanShabanTrading 📅 11.27.2022 ⚠️(DYOR) ❤️ If you apperciate my work , Please like and comment , It Keeps me motivated to do better ❤️
17

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Pine scripts

Smart Money Concepts [LUX]This all-in-one indicator displays real-time market structure (internal & swing BOS / CHoCH), order blocks, premium & discount zones, equal highs & lows, and much more...allowing traders to automatically mark up their charts with widely used price action methodologies. Following the release of our Fair Value Gap script, we received numerous requests from our community to release more features in the same category. "Smart Money Concepts" (SMC) is a fairly new yet widely used term amongst price action traders looking to more accurately navigate liquidity & find more optimal points of interest in the market. Trying to determine where institutional market participants have orders placed (buy or sell side liquidity) can be a very reasonable approach to finding more practical entries & exits based on price action. The indicator includes alerts for the presence of swing structures and many other relevant conditions. Features This indicator includes many features relevant to SMC, these are highlighted below: Full internal & swing market structure labeling in real-time Break of Structure (BOS) Change of Character (CHoCH) Order Blocks (bullish & bearish) Equal Highs & Lows Fair Value Gap Detection Previous Highs & Lows Premium & Discount Zones as a range Options to style the indicator to more easily display these concepts Settings Mode: Allows the user to select Historical (default) or Present, which displays only recent data on the chart. Style: Allows the user to select different styling for the entire indicator between Colored (default) and Monochrome. Color Candles: Plots candles based on the internal & swing structures from within the indicator on the chart. Internal Structure: Displays the internal structure labels & dashed lines to represent them. (BOS & CHoCH). Confluence Filter: Filter non-significant internal structure breakouts. Swing Structure: Displays the swing structure labels & solid lines on the chart (larger BOS & CHoCH labels). Swing Points: Displays swing points labels on chart such as HH, HL, LH, LL. Internal Order Blocks: Enables Internal Order Blocks & allows the user to select how many most recent Internal Order Blocks appear on the chart. Swing Order Blocks: Enables Swing Order Blocks & allows the user to select how many most recent Swing Order Blocks appear on the chart. Equal Highs & Lows: Displays EQH/EQL labels on chart for detecting equal highs & lows. Bars Confirmation: Allows the user to select how many bars are needed to confirm an EQH/EQL symbol on chart. Fair Value Gaps: Displays boxes to highlight imbalance areas on the chart. Auto Threshold: Filter out non-significant fair value gaps. Timeframe: Allows the user to select the timeframe for the Fair Value Gap detection. Extend FVG: Allows the user to choose how many bars to extend the Fair Value Gap boxes on the chart. Highs & Lows MTF: Allows the user to display previous highs & lows from daily, weekly, & monthly timeframes as significant levels. Premium/Discount Zones: Allows the user to display Premium, Discount, and Equilibrium zones on the chart Usage Users can see automatic CHoCH and BOS labels to highlight breakouts of market structure, which allows to determine the market trend. In the chart below we can see the internal structure which displays more frequent labels within larger structures. We can also see equal highs & lows (EQH/EQL) labels plotted alongside the internal structure to frequently give indications of potential reversals. In the chart below we can see the swing market structure labels. These are also labeled as BOS and CHoCH but with a solid line & larger text to show larger market structure breakouts & trend reversals. Users can be mindful of these larger structure labels while trading internal structures as displayed in the previous chart. Order blocks highlight areas where institutional market participants open positions, one can use order blocks to determine confirmation entries or potential targets as we can expect there is a large amount of liquidity at these order blocks. In the chart below we can see 2 potential trade setups with confirmation entries. The path outlined in red would be a potential short entry targeting the blue order block below, and the path outlined in green would be a potential long entry, targeting the red order blocks above. As we can see in the chart below, the bullish confirmation entry played out in this scenario with the green path outlined in hindsight. As price breaks though the order blocks above, the indicator will consider them mitigated causing them to disappear, and as per the logic of these order blocks they will always display 5 (by default) on the chart so we can now see more actionable levels. The Smart Money Concepts indicator has many other features and here we can see how they can also help a user find potential levels for price action trading. In the screenshot below we can see a trade setup using the Previous Monthly High, Strong High, and a Swing Order Block as a stop loss. Accompanied by the Premium from the Discount/Premium zones feature being used as a potential entry. A potential take profit level for this trade setup that a user could easily identify would be the 50% mark labeled with the Fair Value Gap & the Equilibrium all displayed automatically by the indicator. Conclusion This indicator highlights all relevant components of Smart Money Concepts which can be a very useful interpretation of market structure, liquidity, & more simply put, price action. The term was coined & popularized primarily within the forex community & by ICT while making its way to become a part of many traders' analysis. These concepts, with or without this indicator do not guarantee a trader to be trading within the presence of institutional or "bank-level" liquidity, there is no supporting data regarding the validity of these teachings.
Pine Script™ indicator
255
Market sessions and Volume profile - By LeviathanThis script allows you to keep track of Forex market sessions (Tokyo, London and New York), as well as Daily, Weekly and Monthly sessions. All of them are accompanied by Volume Profile options where you can view VP Histogram, Point of Control, Value Area High and Value Area Low. Colors, lines and other design preferences are fully customizable. * Volume Profile of shorter sessions (eg. Tokyo, London, New York) works better when using lower timeframes such as 15min, 5min, etc. ** Use timeframe higher than 15min when viewing Monthly sessions Indicator settings overview: SESSION TYPE - Tokyo session (1:00 - 9:00 UTC/ GMT ) - London session (7:00 - 16:00 UTC/ GMT ) - New York session (13:00 - 22:00 UTC/ GMT ) - Daily session - Weekly session - Monthly session DISPLAY - Show Volume Profile (Show or hide Volume Profile histogram) - Show POC (Show or hide Point Of Control line) - Show VAL (Show or hide Value Area Low line) - Show VAH (Show or hide Value Area High line) - Show Live Zone (Show or hide the ongoing session) VOLUME PROFILE SETTINGS - Resolution (The higher the value, the more refined of a profile, but less profiles are shown on the chart) - Smooth Volume Data (Useful for assets that have very large spikes in volume over large bars, helps create better profiles) APPEARANCE - Up Volume color (Pick a custom color for up/ bullish volume profile nodes) - Down Volume color (Pick a custom color for down/ bearish volume profile nodes) - POC color and thickness (Pick a custom color and thickness for Point Of Control line) - VAH color and thickness (Pick a custom color and thickness for Value Area High line) - VAL color and thickness (Pick a custom color and thickness for Value Area Low line) - Session box thickness (Pick a custom thickness for the session box. Color is provided automatically with optimal contrast) ** Some VP elements are inspired by @LonesomeTheBlue's volume profile script
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Pine Script™ indicator
36
Volume Profile Volume Delta OI Delta [Kioseff Trading]Hello! This script serves to distinguish volume delta for any asset and open interest delta for Binance perpetual futures. The image above provides further explanation of functionality and color correspondence. The image above shows the indicator calculating volume at each tick level and displaying the metric. The label color outline (neon effect) is configurable; the image above is absent the feature. The image above shows Open Interest (OI) Delta calculated - similar to how the script calculates volume delta - for a Binance Perpetual Future pair. This feature only works for Binance Futures pairs; the script will not load when trying to calculate OI Delta on other assets. Additionally, a heatmap is displayable should you configure the indicator to calculate it. The image above shows a heatmap using volume delta calculations. The image above shows a heatmap using OI delta calculations. Of course, these calculations - when absent requisite data - require some assumptions to better replicate calculations with access to requisite data. The indicator assumes a 60/40 split when a tick level is traded at and only one metric - "buy volume" or "sell volume" is recorded. This means there shouldn't be any levels recorded where "buy volume" is greater than 0 and "sell volume" equals 0 and vice versa. While this assumption was performed arbitrarily, it may help better replicate volume delta and OI delta calculations seen on other charting platforms. This option is configurable; you can select to have the script not assume a 60/40 split and instead record volume "as is" at the corresponding tick level. The script also divides volume and open interest if a one-minute bar violates multiple tick levels. The volume or open interest generated on the one-minute bar will be divided by the number of tick levels it exceeds. The results are, subsequently, appended to the violated tick levels. Further, the script can be set to recalculate after a user-defined time threshold is exceeded. You can also define the percentage or tick distance between levels. Also, it'd be great if this indicator can nicely replicate volume delta indicators on other charting platforms. If you've any ideas on how price action can be used to better assume volume at the corresponding price area please let me know! Thank you (:
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Pine Script™ indicator
47
Next Pivot Projection [Trendoscope]Still experimental. Extending further on the divergence backtest results - in this script we try to project next 2 pivots (including one unconfirmed pivot) 🎲 Previous experiments 1. Divergence-Backtester 2. Divergence-Backtester-V2 🎲 Additions Apart from collecting the stats on number of occurrences of HH, HL, LH, LL - this script also keeps track of average ratio for each levels and average bars. Based on these data, we try to calculate the next pivot projections including possible bar and price. Cloud covering the candles indicate historical levels of average HH, HL, LH, LL projections. Hover on projection labels to find more details in tooltips. 🎲 Overall method in a nutshell 🎲 Going bit deeper 🎯 Unconfirmed Pivot and its projection - Last pivot of the zigzag is always unconfirmed. Meaning, it can potentially repaint based on further price movements. But, projection of the unconfirmed pivot will not change as it will be based on previous two pivots - both of which are confirmed. 🎯 Next Pivot Projection - Next pivot is projected based on last two pivots - which include last unconfirmed pivot. Hence, these projections can potentially repaint based on the last pivot repaint. 🎯 Historical projections displayed as cloud - Historical projection values are displayed as cloud around pivots. A cloud above represents area from average lower high range to average higher high range. Cloud color is green if average ratio of pivot high is more than 1. Red Otherwise. A cloud below represents area from average higher low range to average lower low range. Cloud color is red if average ratio of pivot high is more than 1. Green otherwise
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Pine Script™ indicator
52
Intrabar Efficiency Ratio█   OVERVIEW This indicator displays a directional variant of Perry​ Kaufman's​ Efficiency​ Ratio​, designed to gauge the "efficiency" of intrabar price movement by comparing the sum of movements of the lower timeframe bars composing a chart bar with the respective bar's movement on an average basis. █   CONCEPTS Efficiency Ratio (ER) Efficiency Ratio ​ was first introduced by Perry Kaufman in his 1995 book, titled "Smarter Trading". It is the ratio of absolute price change to the sum of absolute changes on each bar over a period. This tells us how strong the period's trend is relative to the underlying noise. Simply put, it's a measure of price movement efficiency. This ratio is the modulator utilized in Kaufman's​ Adaptive​ Moving​ Average​ (KAMA​), which is essentially an Exponential​ Moving​ Average​ (EMA​) that adapts its responsiveness to movement efficiency. ER's output is bounded between 0 and 1. A value of 0 indicates that the starting price equals the ending price for the period, which suggests that price movement was maximally inefficient. A value of 1 indicates that price had travelled no more than the distance between the starting price and the ending price for the period, which suggests that price movement was maximally efficient. A value between 0 and 1 indicates that price had travelled a distance greater than the distance between the starting price and the ending price for the period. In other words, some degree of noise was present which resulted in reduced efficiency over the period. As an example, let's say that the price of an asset had moved from $15 to $14 by the end of a period, but the sum of absolute changes for each bar of data was $4. ER would be calculated like so: ER = abs(14 - 15)/4 = 0.25 This suggests that the trend was only 25% efficient over the period, as the total distanced travelled by price was four times what was required to achieve the change over the period. Intrabars Intrabars are chart bars at a lower timeframe than the chart's. Each 1H chart bar of a 24x7 market will, for example, usually contain 60 intrabars at the ​LTF of 1min, provided there was market activity during each minute of the hour. Mining information from intrabars can be useful in that it offers traders visibility on the activity inside a chart bar. Lower timeframes (LTFs) A lower timeframe is a timeframe that is smaller than the chart's timeframe. This script determines which ​LTF to use by examining the chart's timeframe. The ​LTF determines how many intrabars are examined for each chart bar; the lower the timeframe, the more intrabars are analyzed, but fewer chart bars can display indicator information because there is a limit to the total number of intrabars that can be analyzed. Intrabar precision The precision of calculations increases with the number of intrabars analyzed for each chart bar. As there is a 100K limit to the number of intrabars that can be analyzed by a script, a trade-off occurs between the number of intrabars analyzed per chart bar and the chart bars for which calculations are possible. Intrabar Efficiency Ratio (IER) Intrabar Efficiency Ratio applies the concept of ER on an intrabar level. Rather than comparing the overall change to the sum of bar changes for the current chart's timeframe over a period, IER compares single bar changes for the current chart's timeframe to the sum of absolute intrabar changes, then applies smoothing to the result. This gives an indication of how efficient changes are on the current chart's timeframe for each bar of data relative to LTF​ bar changes on an average basis. Unlike the standard ER calculation, we've opted to preserve directional information by not taking the absolute value of overall change, thus allowing it to be utilized as a momentum oscillator. However, by taking the absolute value of this oscillator, it could potentially serve as a replacement for ER in the design of adaptive moving averages. Since this indicator preserves directional information, IER can be regarded as similar to the Chande​ Momentum​ Oscillator​ (CMO​) , which was presented in 1994 by Tushar​ Chande​ in "The New Technical Trader". Both CMO​ and ER​ essentially measure the same relationship between trend and noise. CMO simply differs in scale, and considers the direction of overall changes. █   FEATURES Display Three different display types are included within the script:  • Line : Displays the middle length MA of the IER as a line .   Color for this display can be customized via the "Line" portion of the "Visuals" section in the script settings.  • Candles : Displays the non-smooth IER and two moving averages of different lengths as candles .   The `open` and `close` of the candle are the longest and shortest length MAs of the IER respectively.   The `high` and `low` of the candle are the max and min of the IER, longest length MA of the IER, and shortest length MA of the IER respectively.   Colors for this display can be customized via the "Candles" portion of the "Visuals" section in the script settings.  • Circles : Displays three MAs of the IER as circles .   The color of each plot depends on the percent rank of the respective MA over the previous 100 bars.   Different colors are triggered when ranks are below 10%, between 10% and 50%, between 50% and 90%, and above 90%.   Colors for this display can be customized via the "Circles" portion of the "Visuals" section in the script settings. With either display type, an optional information box can be displayed. This box shows the LTF​ that the script is using, the average number of lower timeframe bars per chart bar, and the number of chart bars that contain LTF​ data. Specifying intrabar precision Ten options are included in the script to control the number of intrabars used per chart bar for calculations. The greater the number of intrabars per chart bar, the fewer chart bars can be analyzed. The first five options allow users to specify the approximate amount of chart bars to be covered:  • Least Precise (Most chart bars) : Covers all chart bars by dividing the current timeframe by four.   This ensures the highest level of intrabar precision while achieving complete coverage for the dataset.  • Less Precise (Some chart bars) & More Precise (Less chart bars) : These options calculate a stepped ​LTF in relation to the current chart's timeframe.  • Very precise (2min intrabars) : Uses the second highest quantity of intrabars possible with the 2min ​LTF.  • Most precise (1min intrabars) : Uses the maximum quantity of intrabars possible with the 1min ​LTF. The stepped lower timeframe for "Less Precise" and "More Precise" options is calculated from the current chart's timeframe as follows: Chart Timeframe Lower Timeframe Less Precise More Precise < 1hr 1min 1min < 1D 15min 1min < 1W ​2hr​ 30min > 1W 1D 60min The last five options allow users to specify an approximate fixed number of intrabars to analyze per chart bar. The available choices are 12, 24, 50, 100, and 250. The script will calculate the LTF​ which most closely approximates the specified number of intrabars per chart bar. Keep in mind that due to factors such as the length of a ticker's sessions and rounding of the LTF​, it is not always possible to produce the exact number specified. However, the script will do its best to get as close to the value as possible. Specifying MA type Seven MA types are included in the script for different averaging effects:  • Simple  • Exponential  • Wilder (RMA)  • Weighted  • Volume-Weighted  • Arnaud Legoux with `offset` and `sigma` set to 0.85 and 6 respectively.  • Hull Weighting This script includes the option to weight IER values based on the percent rank of absolute price changes on the current chart's timeframe over a specified period, which can be enabled by checking the "Weigh using relative close changes" option in the script settings. This places reduced emphasis on IER values from smaller changes, which may help to reduce noise in the output. █   FOR Pine Script™ CODERS  • This script imports the recently published lower_ltf library for calculating intrabar statistics and the optimal lower timeframe in relation to the current chart's timeframe.  • This script uses the recently released request.security_lower_tf() Pine Script™ function discussed in this blog post .   It works differently from the usual request.security() in that it can only be used on LTFs, and it returns an array containing one value per intrabar.   This makes it much easier for programmers to access intrabar information.  • This script implements a new recommended best practice for tables which works faster and reduces memory consumption.   Using this new method, tables are declared only once with var , as usual. Then, on the first bar only, we use table.cell() to populate the table.   Finally, table.set_*() functions are used to update attributes of table cells on the last bar of the dataset.   This greatly reduces the resources required to render tables. Look first. Then leap.
Pine Script™ indicator
4
Time & volume point of control (TPOC & VPOC)What are TPOC & VPOC? TPOC (time point of control) and VPOC (volume point of control) are points in price where highest amount of time/volume was traded. This is considered key information in a market profile, as it shows where market participant interest was highest. Unlike full fledged market profile that shows total time/volume distribution, this script shows the points of control for each candle, plotted with a line (time) and a dot (volume). The script hides your candles/bars by default and forms a line in the middle representing candle range. In case of candles, borders will still be visible. This feature can be turned off in the settings. Volume and time data are fetched from a lower timeframe that is automatically adjusted to fit the timeframe you're using. By default, the following settings are applied: Charts <= 30 min: 1 minute timeframe Charts > 30 min & <= 3 hours : 5 minute timeframe Charts > 3 hours & <= 8 hours : 15 minute timeframe Charts > 8 hours & <= 1D: 1 hour timeframe Charts > 1D & <= 3D : 2 hour timeframe Charts > 3D: 4 hour timeframe Timeframe settings can be changed via input menu. The lower the timeframe, the more precision you get but with the cost of less historical data and slower loading time. Users can also choose which source to use for determining price for points of control, e.g. using close as source, the point of control is set to match the value of lower timeframe candle close. This could be replaced with OHLC4 for example, resulting in a point of control based on OHLC average. To identify more profound points of market participant interest, TPOC & VPOC as percentage of total time/volume thresholds can be set via input menu. When a point of control is equal to or greater than the set percentage threshold, visual elements will be highlighted in a different color, e.g. 50% VPOC threshold will activate a highlight whenever volume traded at VPOC is equal to or greater than 50% of total volume. All colors are customizable. VPOC is defined by fetching lower timeframe candle with the most amount of volume traded and using its close (by default) as a mark for point of control. For TPOC, each candle is divided into 10 lots which are used for calculating amount of closes taking place within the bracket values. The lot with highest amount of closes will be considered a point of control. This mark is displayed in the middle point of a lot: How to utilize TPOC & VPOC Example #1: Trapped market participants One or both points of control at one end of candle range (wick tail) and candle close at the other end serves as an indication of market participants trapped in an awkward position. When price runs away further from these trapped participants, they are eventually forced to cover and drive price even further to the opposite direction: Example #2: Trend initiation A large move that leaves TPOC behind while VPOC is supportive serves as an indication of a trend initiation. Essentially, this is one way to identify an event where price traded sideways most of the time and suddenly moved away with volume: Example #3: POC supported trend A trend is healthy when it's supported by a point of control. Ideally you want to see either time or volume supporting a trend:
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Pine Script™ indicator
23
WaveTrend 3D█  OVERVIEW WaveTrend 3D (WT3D) is a novel implementation of the famous WaveTrend (WT) indicator and has been completely redesigned from the ground up to address some of the inherent shortcomings associated with the traditional WT algorithm. █  BACKGROUND The WaveTrend (WT) indicator has become a widely popular tool for traders in recent years. WT was first ported to PineScript in 2014 by the user @LazyBear, and since then, it has ascended to become one of the Top 5 most popular scripts on TradingView. The WT algorithm appears to have origins in a lesser-known proprietary algorithm called Trading Channel Index (TCI), created by AIQ Systems in 1986 as an integral part of their commercial software suite, TradingExpert Pro. The software’s reference manual states that “TCI identifies changes in price direction” and is “an adaptation of Donald R. Lambert’s Commodity Channel Index (CCI)”, which was introduced to the world six years earlier in 1980. Interestingly, a vestige of this early beginning can still be seen in the source code of LazyBear’s script, where the final EMA calculation is stored in an intermediate variable called “tci” in the code. █  IMPLEMENTATION DETAILS WaveTrend 3D is an alternative implementation of WaveTrend that directly addresses some of the known shortcomings of the indicator, including its unbounded extremes, susceptibility to whipsaw, and lack of insight into other timeframes. In the canonical WT approach, an exponential moving average (EMA) for a given lookback window is used to assess the variability between price and two other EMAs relative to a second lookback window. Since the difference between the average price and its associated EMA is essentially unbounded, an arbitrary scaling factor of 0.015 is typically applied as a crude form of rescaling but still fails to capture 20-30% of values between the range of -100 to 100. Additionally, the trigger signal for the final EMA (i.e., TCI) crossover-based oscillator is a four-bar simple moving average (SMA), which further contributes to the net lag accumulated by the consecutive EMA calculations in the previous steps. The core idea behind WT3D is to replace the EMA-based crossover system with modern Digital Signal Processing techniques. By assuming that price action adheres approximately to a Gaussian distribution, it is possible to sidestep the scaling nightmare associated with unbounded price differentials of the original WaveTrend method by focusing instead on the alteration of the underlying Probability Distribution Function (PDF) of the input series. Furthermore, using a signal processing filter such as a Butterworth Filter, we can eliminate the need for consecutive exponential moving averages along with the associated lag they bring. Ideally, it is convenient to have the resulting probability distribution oscillate between the values of -1 and 1, with the zero line serving as a median. With this objective in mind, it is possible to borrow a common technique from the field of Machine Learning that uses a sigmoid-like activation function to transform our data set of interest. One such function is the hyperbolic tangent function (tanh), which is often used as an activation function in the hidden layers of neural networks due to its unique property of ensuring the values stay between -1 and 1. By taking the first-order derivative of our input series and normalizing it using the quadratic mean, the tanh function performs a high-quality redistribution of the input signal into the desired range of -1 to 1. Finally, using a dual-pole filter such as the Butterworth Filter popularized by John Ehlers, excessive market noise can be filtered out, leaving behind a crisp moving average with minimal lag. Furthermore, WT3D expands upon the original functionality of WT by providing: First-class support for multi-timeframe (MTF) analysis Kernel-based regression for trend reversal confirmation Various options for signal smoothing and transformation A unique mode for visualizing an input series as a symmetrical, three-dimensional waveform useful for pattern identification and cycle-related analysis █  SETTINGS This is a summary of the settings used in the script listed in roughly the order in which they appear. By default, all default colors are from Google's TensorFlow framework and are considered to be colorblind safe. Source: The input series. Usually, it is the close or average price, but it can be any series. Use Mirror: Whether to display a mirror image of the source series; for visualizing the series as a 3D waveform similar to a soundwave. Use EMA: Whether to use an exponential moving average of the input series. EMA Length: The length of the exponential moving average. Use COG: Whether to use the center of gravity of the input series. COG Length: The length of the center of gravity. Speed to Emphasize: The target speed to emphasize. Width: The width of the emphasized line. Display Kernel Moving Average: Whether to display the kernel moving average of the signal. Like PCA, an unsupervised Machine Learning technique whereby neighboring vectors are projected onto the Principal Component. Display Kernel Signal: Whether to display the kernel estimator for the emphasized line. Like the Kernel MA, it can show underlying shifts in bias within a more significant trend by the colors reflected on the ribbon itself. Show Oscillator Lines: Whether to show the oscillator lines. Offset: The offset of the emphasized oscillator plots. Fast Length: The length scale factor for the fast oscillator. Fast Smoothing: The smoothing scale factor for the fast oscillator. Normal Length: The length scale factor for the normal oscillator. Normal Smoothing: The smoothing scale factor for the normal frequency. Slow Length: The length scale factor for the slow oscillator. Slow Smoothing: The smoothing scale factor for the slow frequency. Divergence Threshold: The number of bars for the divergence to be considered significant. Trigger Wave Percent Size: How big the current wave should be relative to the previous wave. Background Area Transparency Factor: Transparency factor for the background area. Foreground Area Transparency Factor: Transparency factor for the foreground area. Background Line Transparency Factor: Transparency factor for the background line. Foreground Line Transparency Factor: Transparency factor for the foreground line. Custom Transparency: Transparency of the custom colors. Total Gradient Steps: The maximum amount of steps supported for a gradient calculation is 256. Fast Bullish Color: The color of the fast bullish line. Normal Bullish Color: The color of the normal bullish line. Slow Bullish Color: The color of the slow bullish line. Fast Bearish Color: The color of the fast bearish line. Normal Bearish Color: The color of the normal bearish line. Slow Bearish Color: The color of the slow bearish line. Bullish Divergence Signals: The color of the bullish divergence signals. Bearish Divergence Signals: The color of the bearish divergence signals. █  ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS @LazyBear - For authoring the original WaveTrend port on TradingView @PineCoders - For the beautiful color gradient framework used in this indicator @veryfid - For the inspiration of using mirrored signals for cycle analysis and using multiple lookback windows as proxies for other timeframes
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Pine Script™ indicator
35
Equity Bond Currency DashboardDepicts demand-flow between Equities, Bonds and Currencies of 6 countries. Useful in tracking the flow of smart money and checking the dynamics of inter-connected markets. Principle: DXY lies at the heart of the diagram with usd-currency pairs of 5 countries connected to it. When demand for a currency increases it strengthens against Dollar. This is depicted by a line from DXY to the currency indicating demand flow from Dollar to the currency (DXY is only an indicative symbol for Dollar, the currency may not be part of the dollar index). Similarly when Dollar strengthens against the currency, demand flow is depicted by a line from the currency to DXY. Currency blocks are connected to Equity and Bond Yields of the respective countries. Equities and Bonds, when bought, takes the demand from the respective currencies and vice versa. Overall, the demand flows in the direction of arrows. The flow is incomplete without commodities, import/export, interest/inflation rates of countries, however, the diagram most of the times explains why an asset class is performing the way it is. Left side bar of each block is very similar to OHLC candles except for the following - Instead of wicks, top and bottom of the bar represents high and low for the selected time-frame Open and close are normalised for high and low Bar border is red if close < prev.close, green if close >= prev.close Other notes: The diagram requires at least 200 bars in the chart to render. Please select the symbol and time-frame that contain at least 200 bars. The diagram requires a live market to render the flow. To check flows on historical bars, set the option from settings. Desired indices could be selected for countries of choice. Default settings point to futures wherever possible to have the markets live simultaneously across the countries.
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Pine Script™ indicator
10
Bitcoin Miner Sell PressureBitcoin miners are in pain and now (November 2022) selling more than they have in almost 5 years! Introducing: Bitcoin Miner Sell Pressure. A free, open-source indicator which tracks on-chain data to highlight when Bitcoin miners are selling more of their reserves than usual. The indicator tracks the ratio of on-chain miner Bitcoin outflows to miner Bitcoin reserves. - Higher = more selling than usual - Lower = less selling than usual - Red = extraordinary sell pressure Today , it's red. What can we see now ? Miners are not great at treasury management. They tend to sell most when they are losing money (like today). But there have been times when they sold well into high profit, such as into the 2017 $20K top and in early 2021 when Bitcoin breached $40K. Bitcoin Miner Sell Pressure identifies industry stress, excess and miner capitulation. Unsurprisingly, there is a high correlation with Bitcoin Production Cost; giving strong confluence to both. In some instances, BMSP spots capitulation before Hash Ribbons. Such as today!
Pine Script™ indicator
6
Minervini QualifierThe Minervini Qualifier indicator calculates the qualifying conditions from Mark Minervini’s book “Trade like a Stock Market Wizard”. The condition matching is been shown as fill color inside an SMA 20day envelope curve. If the envelope color is red, current close price is below the SMA20 and when blue, current close price is above the SMA20. The fill color can be transparent (not matching qualifying conditions), yellow (matching all conditions except close is still below SMA50), green (all conditions match, SMA200 trending for at least one month up) or blue (all conditions match, SMA200 trending up for at least 5 months) As I wanted also to see which of the qualifying conditions match over time, I’ve added add. lines, each representing one conditions. If it matches, line color is blue, or red if not. Use the data windows (right side), so you know what line represents which condition. Can be turned on/off (default:on) In addition, a relative strength is been calculated, to compare the stock to a reference index. It is just one possible way to calculate it, might be different to what Mark Minervini is using. If the shown value (top right) is above 100, stock performs better compared to reference index (can be set in settings), when below 100, stock performs worse compared to reference index. Can be turned on/off (default:on) How to use it: For more details, read Mark’s book and watch his videos. Limitations: It gives only useful information on daily timeframe (No financial advise, for testing purposes only)
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Pine Script™ indicator
11

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Educational ideas

Learn How to Apply Multiple Time Frame Analysis Hey traders, In this article, we will discuss Multiple Time Frame Analysis. I will teach you how to apply different time frames and will share with you some useful tips. Firstly, let's briefly define the classification of time frames that we will discuss: There are 3 main categories of time frames: 1️⃣Higher time frames 2️⃣Trading time frames 3️⃣Lower time frames 1️⃣Higher time frames are used for identification of the market trend and global picture. Weekly and daily time frames belong to this category. The analysis of these time frames is the most important. On these time frames, we make predictions and forecast the future direction of the market with trend analysis and we identify the levels, the areas from where we will trade our predictions with structure analysis. 2️⃣Trading time frames are the time frames where the positions are opened. The analysis of these time frames initiates only after the market reaches the underlined trading levels, the areas on higher time frames. My trading time frames are 4h/1h. There I am looking for a confirmation of the strength of the structures that I spotted on higher time frames. There are multiple ways to confirm that. My confirmations are the reversal price action patterns. Once the confirmation is spotted, the position is opened. 3️⃣Lower time frames are 30/15 minutes charts. Even though these time frames are NOT applied for trading, occasionally they provide some extra clues. Also, these time frames can be applied by riskier traders for opening trading positions before the confirmation is spotted on trading time frames. Learn to apply these 3 categories of time frames in a combination. Start your analysis with the highest time frame and steadily go lower, identifying more and more clues. You will be impressed how efficient that strategy is. ❤️If you have any questions, please, ask me in the comment section. Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
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Education
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BTC - Practical Descending Triangle Example! 🖋Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst. I find BTC chart interesting as it is forming a textbook Descending Triangle, so I thought it would be a practical example to highlight it now. 📌 First, let's start with the definition of a Descending Triangle: 🗒 What is a Descending Triangle? A descending triangle is a bearish chart pattern used in technical analysis that is created by drawing one trend line that connects a series of lower highs and a second horizontal trend line that connects a series of equal lows. 📉 Traditionally, a regular descending triangle pattern is considered to be a bearish chart pattern. However, in my opinion, even thought a bearish continuation is more probable, all triangles are bilateral patterns. Means they can be broken either side. 📌 How to trade a Descending Triangle pattern? 🗒 Remember: A pattern would be an idea, until activated. In our case, for the descending triangle pattern to get activated, we need an H4 candle close below the lower bound. (around 15500 in red) In parallel, for the bulls to kick in, and invalidate the bearish scenario, we need an H4 candle close above the upper bound. (around 17100 in blue) 📌 Trade / Risk Management: 🗒 When the pattern is activated, you can enter immediately after the candle closes, or wait for it to retest the trendline first. Regarding the stop loss, it goes above/below the last high/low from the other side. Regarding the take profit, the project would be the biggest distance between the highs and lows inside the triangle. Hope you find this post useful. Let me know if you have any questions. Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Rich
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Volume Profile: Everything You Need To KnowHey everyone! 👋 If you have been in the market for some time, you may have heard of a tool called “Volume Profile”. Today, we are going to take a deeper look at this tool, explain how it works, and leave you with a few tricks that you can use to supercharge your analysis. What is Volume Profile? 🤔 Volume Profile is an advanced charting tool that displays trading activity at specific price levels over a specified time period. On the chart, it plots a horizontal histogram to reveal areas where significant trading volume happened. Differences vs. Traditional Volume 👀 The core difference between Traditional Volume and Volume Profile is how they consider volume with respect to the time and price. In other words, Traditional volume tells you when volume happened, and Volume Profile tells you where it happened. Volume Profile Terminology 🔤 The Volume Profile tool has several unique components & terminology that you should know about: Point of Control (POC) – The single price level in a given time period where the most volume traded. Profile High – The highest reached price level during the specified time period. Profile Low – The lowest reached price level during the specified time period. Value Area (VA) – The range in which a specified percentage of all volume was traded during the time period. Typically, this percentage is set to 70%. Value Area High (VAH) – The highest price level within the value area. Value Area Low (VAL) – The lowest price level within the value area. Tips & Tricks 😎 Just like with most other tools or studies, Volume Profile has a number of uses. One common strategy is to analyze where previous period value areas are vs. the current price. If current prices are outside of a previous period's value area, then it can be assumed that an asset is trending. If price is still within a previous period's value area, then some may label that asset as being in a consolidation. Determining trend and consolidation are often used in conjunction with trend following and mean reversion execution strategies, respectively. Another common strategy is to use "Virgin" Point of Control (VPOC's) as key levels in an asset. VPOC's are levels that haven't yet been retested and remain untouched by current price action since they were formed. The idea here is that if there was lots of action at a certain price, then it's likely that the market's biggest participants have positions from that level. This can cause predictable behavior which keen-eyed traders can take advantage of. Looking to get access to Volume Profile on your chart? There's still some time left in our Cyber Monday sale . Act fast! Thanks for reading! Cheers! - Team TradingView ❤️
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✳️FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT LEVELS BASICS(Must Read)✳️ ☸️WHAT ARE FIB RETRACEMENT LEVELS Fibonacci retracement levels are horizontal lines that indicate the possible support and resistance levels where price could potentially reverse direction. The first thing you should know about the Fibonacci tool is that it works best when the market is trending. The idea is to go long on a retracement at a Fibonacci support level when the market is trending UP. And to go short on a retracement at a Fibonacci resistance level when the market is trending DOWN. Fibonacci retracement levels are considered a predictive technical indicator since they attempt to identify where price may be in the future. ☸️FINDING FIB RETRACEMENT LEVELS In order to find these Fibonacci retracement levels, you have to find the recent significant Swing Highs and Swings Lows. Then, for downtrends, click on the Swing High and drag the cursor to the most recent Swing Low. For uptrends, do the opposite. Click on the Swing Low and drag the cursor to the most recent Swing High. ☸️HOW TO USE Once you’ve done that, you will see the following levels appear: 23.6% , 38.2%, 50.0%, 61.8% and 76.4%. (The 50% one is not technically a Fib level but its still used by everyone)The idea is that the price will make a correction that will reverse at one of these levels. So all we need to do is watch the price action near these levels and look for the reversal patterns, like triple bottom, head and shoulders, narrowing wedge breakouts, etc… Once the we see a confluence of the Fib level and the reversal pattern, we can just wait for the confirmation breakout and enter the trade on the pullback. EASY!👻 ☸️WHY IT WORKS Because of all the people who use the Fibonacci tool, those levels become self-fulfilling support and resistance levels. If enough market participants believe that a retracement will occur near a Fibonacci retracement level and are waiting to open a position when the price reaches that level, then all those pending orders will impact the market price. ☸️IMPORANT REMINDER One thing you should take note of is that price won’t always bounce from these levels. They should be looked at as areas of interest so as I wrote above, one can’t simply trade off these levels, but needs to employ reversal patterns with confirmation to increase the probability rate of one’s calls. 💹Thank you for reading, please Like and Comment to support me☺️ Dear followers, let me know, what topic interests you for new educational posts?
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Why Your Backtest Results May Not Give Realistic ResultsHello traders, All the below are based on my preferences, I don't give any financial recommendations and I have nothing to sell you with this article. I'm sharing content because I see a lot of traders being/becoming broke and I don't want you to be one of them. Timeframes A lot of models work on high timeframes on the charts. They work visually at least and that's why many are only sharing with high timeframes charts greater than 4H. We all built a backtest based on a moving average cross and got a shooting 95%+ win-rate when running the backtest engine for the very first time. We all thought we were geniuses right :) "Way too easy" we all thought There is a caveat though... For derivatives trading (CFDs, options, futures, ..) backtests always account for real trading fees. Let me explain... We all heard/saw those rollover fees that we need to pay overnight. This is basically how the brokers are forcing the overnight/over weekend traders to pay more fees. While the explanation longs to pay for the shorts, and shorts to pay for the longs is poetic - those fees could eat out your position capital way before the price action has even moved. Imagine a range during days/weeks. You'll end up paying a lot of fees and might end up with a very negative position size way before anything interesting (from a trading perspective) ever happened. I saw many trades being minus double digits percent PnL only because of fees. Then, imagine trading contracts with an expiration date - this adds another challenge - and most of backtests don't even account for that either. Leverage Leverage increases disproportionally the risk compared to the opportunity. Leverage 2 does increase the risk by 2 but the opportunity won't be multiplied by 2. Well.... it would be in case the analysis is good in the first place. (assuming the risk/entry/exit plan is correctly calculated). Assuming those analyses are made by experienced traders, then using leverage makes sense - otherwise I'd stay away from it. I surely sound like a broken record with this... But, I know what you're thinking You calculated already how many trades and pips you need to earn $1M and you concluded it won't be possible without leverage. This statement is true if you want to get rich quick which anyway always lead to get poor quick. "Past performance doesn't guarantee future performance" Probably the quote we hear the most in trading guys... Generally in trading, what worked before has a probability to not work anymore the more time has been elapsed. I don't mean it won't work anymore. This only means we should be cautious when trading setups valid from a while ago on a specific market. A way to not get that burden on our psychology is to indeed reduce the position sizing. Until we are comfortable and not stressed anymore. That's the sweet spot you guys have to find. For some, it might be a few hundreds per trade, for others a few thousands. There IS NOT a well-formulated generic universal valid answer for what's the best position sizing. Apart of course from starting with tiny baby positions and scaling up from there But for sure, once we get comfortable with one position size range level, we should go to the upper level direct above. Direct above means, if we trade 100 USD position sizes, the next one could be in the 110-150 USD range. (and not 1K right off the bat...) We wouldn't lift 100 kg after getting used to only 10 kg. Trading isn't different than any skill requiring training and dedication The challenge is to not change our goals midway after a few wins or a few losses. And to stick with them for a few months at least. Literally takes me weeks of training to add a few kg to my chest press barbell or biceps curls. That's how much it took me also to increase the average position sizing by 10% or so. Thus the more I increase it, the more time I need to get comfortable with it. And it gets increasingly difficult from a psychological perspective the bigger the position size gets Applies in a lot of areas in life, sport, career also. It takes time! The worst thing for new traders is getting early very lucky and rewarding trades. That's what happened with many crypto traders in 2017 and 2021 They got too cocky and made that money too quickly and too easily. Then, when the market turned bearish... they gave all it back because their experience/backtest/psychology/beliefs weren't ready for a market shift. We're at a time where markets change constantly. And perhaps that's why the patterns used by our predecessors 20 years ago aren't relevant anymore. My father told me that trading 40 years ago was as "easy" stealing a candy from a baby.

Now it’s a lot more complicated due to the noise, trading bots, etc.. Often orders aren't filled In paper trading or with a backtest, when a Take Profit is hit... well we make profit and that's cool. But those LIVE trading know that sometimes... the limit orders aren't filled and no one can give us a logical explanation why the F... they weren't filled. Even though the charts clearly show we should have been filled... Your broker will say slippage. Your guru will say "I got a nice 1000% profit - Hope you all exited when I told you so" You will say "But my backtest claimed that an order should always be filled..." I'm saying blaming the casino isn't useful and won't bring you anywhere And that's why trades need to be managed because we're playing against the house (exchange) & competition (i.e. SMART-MONEY - understand bankers/funds with real advanced financial education) that want us liquidated. I'll keep bringing a few articles like this every week because it helps me clarifying my thoughts AND giving back to the community makes me feel good about myself somehow :) I want to teach you guys every aspects of what makes a great trader and how to get there. This is the most challenging and the most rewarding job at the same time Thank you for reading Dave
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CURRENCY CORRELATIONSCorrelation only shows exactly how two assets move in relation to each other. In the case of currency correlation, it is exactly the same story. Forex pairs can move together, in different directions, or not interact at all. Keep in mind that we are not trading just currencies, we are trading a currency pair where each participant in the pair influences the other. Therefore, correlation can be a useful tool, and almost the only one if you want to successfully trade several currency pairs at once. Currency correlation is based on the so-called correlation coefficient, which is in a simple range between -1 and +1. • Perfect positive correlation (coefficient of +1) means that two currency pairs move in the same direction 100% of the time. • A perfect negative correlation (coefficient -1) implies exactly the opposite. Pairs constantly move in different directions. If the correlation is 0, then there is no correlation at all, it is zero and the pairs are not related in any way. The Risks of Currency Correlations If you trade several currency pairs at once, you must realize at once how much such trading is exposed to risk. Sometimes people choose several pairs at once in order to minimize their risks, but they forget about the positive correlation, when pairs go in the same direction. Let's assume that we took two pairs on the 4-hour timeframe, EUR/USD and GBP/USD. The correlation coefficient is 0.94, very nice. This means that both pairs are literally following each other. If we open trades on both pairs, we thereby immediately double our position and the risks. They increase. Because if you are wrong with the forecast, you will be doubly wrong at once, because the pairs are mirrored. You have put it up, the price went down, a double loss. So there is correlation. Also, it makes no sense to sell one instrument and buy another, because even with an accurate forecast one of them will bring you a loss. The volatility also differs. One pair might jump 200 pips, while the other might jump only 180 pips. That's why it's necessary to play with simultaneous trades on different pairs very carefully and without fanaticism, the correlation decides everything here. Now let's compare the opposite case, EUR/USD and USD/CHF. They have the opposite case, a strong inverse correlation, where the coefficient often reaches the absolute value of -1.00. The pairs are like two magnets with opposite poles, constantly pushing away from each other. If you open opposite trades on two pairs with a negative correlation, it will be the same as two identical trades on pairs with a positive correlation, again doubling your risk. The most reasonable thing is definitely to work with only one pair and not to play with the opposite pair trades, because you can quickly reach ugly values. Correlation coefficients Now let's see how we can look at the correlation coefficients. -1.0. Perfect inverse correlation. -0.8. Very strong inverse correlation. -0.6. Strong inverse correlation. -0.4. Moderate inverse correlation. -0.2. Weak inverse correlation 0. No correlation 0.2 Weak, slight correlation 0.4. Weak correlation 0.6. Moderate correlation 0.8. Strong correlation 1.0. Perfect correlation So what to do with the correlation, can it be used or not? 1. Eliminate risk If you like to open simultaneous trades on different pairs, knowing about their correlation will help you avoid getting into the described situation where you double your risk if two pairs go in the same direction. Or you bet in different directions, not realizing that the pairs have an inverse correlation and this again doubles your risk. 2. Doubling your profits or losses If you decide to play with simultaneous trades on different pairs, a successful trade on pairs that have a direct correlation will double your profits. Or losses, of course, if something went wrong and the forecast was wrong. 3. Risk Diversification Market risks can be divided into two currency pairs. If you certainly understand what you are doing and if the correlation between pairs is not perfect. To do so, we take pairs with a direct correlation around 0.7 (or higher), say EUR/USD and GBP/USD. Let's say you bet on USD going up. Instead of two bets on EUR/USD going down, you could bet on EUR/USD going down and GBP/USD going up. If the dollar falls, the euro will be less affected than the pound. 4. Risk Hedging This method is already used in forex, where it is taken into account that each currency pair has its own pip value. If you have an upside position in EUR/USD and the price moves against you, a downside position in an opposite pair, such as USD/CHF, can help. You should not forget about the different pip value in forex. For example, the EUR/USD and USD/CHF have a nearly perfect correlation, except that when trading a $1000 mini lot, one pip of the EUR/USD costs $1, while USD/CHF costs $0.93. As a result, buying a EUR/USD minilot allows you to hedge your risks while simultaneously buying a USD/CHF minilot. If the EUR/USD falls 10 pips, you lose $10. However, the return on the USD/CHF will be $9.30. So instead of $10, you would only lose 70 cents, fine. Hedging in forex looks great, but there are plenty of drawbacks as well. For when EUR/USD rises frantically, you simultaneously lose money on USD/CHF. Also, the correlation is rarely perfect, it's constantly floating, so instead of hedging you could lose everything. 5. Correlation, Breakouts and False Breaks Correlation can also be used to predict price behavior at significant levels. Let's assume that the EUR/USD is testing a significant support level. We have studied it and decided to enter upon its breakout. Since EUR/USD is positively correlated with GBP/USD and negatively correlated with USD/CHF and USD/JPY, we should check if the other three pairs are moving in the same volatility as EUR/USD. Most likely, GBP/USD is also near resistance levels, and USD/CHF and USD/JPY are near key resistance levels too. All this means that the USD move the market and there are all the indications for a breakout of the EUR/USD, because all the three pairs are moving synchronously. We have to wait for the breakout. And now let's assume that these three pairs do not move synchronously with EUR/USD. GBP/USD has no intention to fall, USD/JPY does not increase, and USD/CHF does not show any signs of sideways movement. What does this mean? The only thing that the fall of EUR/USD is not connected with the dollar and is obviously caused by negative news from the Eurozone. The price can be below the key support level, but if the three correlated pairs do not move synchronously enough with EUR/USD, we should not expect a breakout. Moreover, it can be a false break of resistance. Yes, you can still enter the breakout without a correlation confirmation, but then make a smaller trade volume, because you need to reduce your risks. Correlation: pros and cons Here everything is obvious. The cons are your risks are doubled if you open trades for two mirrored correlated pairs. In addition, the correlation changes regularly at different time intervals, which should be taken into account in your work. The pros are correlation allows you to diversify risks, hedge your trades. Also remember that: ratios are calculated based on daily closing prices; a positive coefficient means that two pairs move in the same direction; negative in opposite directions; the closer the coefficient is to values +1 and -1, the stronger the correlation. Examples of pairs that move synchronously: EUR/USD and GBP/USD; EUR/USD and AUD/USD; EUR/USD and NZD/USD; USD/CHF and USD/JPY; AUD/USD and NZD/USD. Pairs with negative correlation: EUR/USD and USD/CHF; GBP/USD and USD/JPY; USD/CAD and AUD/USD; USD/JPY and AUD/USD; GBP/USD and USD/CHF. Do not forget to use all that you have learned, keep in mind the risk management, and then the currency pairs correlation may become a valuable tool in your trading arsenal. And most importantly, it will allow you to avoid mistakes when you trade two pairs at once and don't even realize that you are doubling your risks if there is a complete synchronous correlation between the selected pairs.
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Why you should LOVE your losses 5 REASONSWe are brought up in society to WIN, WIN, WIN! Throughout our upbringing we must either: Achieve top grades Drive the fanciest cars Wear and own the best brands In other words, we are raised to win with everything we do in life, until you get welcomed into the world of trading. Today I’m going to be the contrarian and share with you why you should love, embrace and own your losses in order to ensure you grow your portfolio on a consistent basis. Let’s start with: What happens after a winning streak? There will be a time during your trading career, where you’re going to endure a magical time where you end up taking sometimes 6, 8 to even 10 winning trades in a row. Your portfolio will be smiling at a new all-time-high and, you’ll feel invincible. You may think that you’ve cracked the holy-grail of trading where you can quit your job and just make a living with the markets. Research shows that individuals tend to invest and trade more actively when their most recent trading performance was successful. In fact, here are: 4 DANGEROUS Actions Traders Take During A Winning Streak: They take on more trades. They upper their trading positions. They start to go against their trading strategy. Their self-confidence and greed levels pick up. Winning streaks are normal and INEVITABLE, but eventually they’ll end and the losing streak will begin. No matter how good you believe you are as a trader or how perfect your trading execution skills are, there will be a time when the honey-moon phase for your trading strategy will be over and the markets will stop acting in your favour every time. The reason is that due to the conditions of supply and demand, the markets environment will eventually change. A market that was trending up or down, could enter into a 3-months sideways phase very easily. When this happens, you will enter into a drawdown (downside) phase. The problem is not the downside for the next three months. The problem is how you’ll treat your trading going forward, based on the DANGEROUS actions you would have taken during your winning streak. Let’s bring them back, to see what will happen to ‘invincible traders’ portfolios and minds with their unexpected losing streak… They start to take on more trades – THIS MEANS MORE LOSSES They upper their trading positions – THIS MEANS BIGGER LOSSES. They start to go against their trading strategy – THIS MEANS UNEXPECTED LOSSES. Their self-confidence and greed levels pick up – THIS MEANS DEPRESSION MAY KICK IN WHICH WILL LEAD TO QUITTING. Now going back to what we said in the beginning. When a winning streak ends, you should love, embrace and own your losses because of these five reasons. 5 Reasons To Love Your Trading Losses Reason #1: Losses are part of your trading success journey Once you have a winning and proven trading strategy, you’ll need to go back to your trading journal to remind you of the flow of winning streaks, losing streaks, average gain & loss per trade and other historical statistics. I’ve back, forward and real-tested the MATI Trader System strategy for over two decades and so I know exactly what kind of winning and losing streaks are to come and that I’ll end up profitable in the medium to long term. Reason #2: Losses help keep your emotions in check Knowing there are inevitable losses to come, this should curb the ego, greed and fear emotions. Reason #3: Losses should keep your risk low With a losing streak that is inevitable to enter your trading results, this alone should be a reason to keep your losses low. I personally never risk more than 2% or my portfolio in any one trade, no matter how many winning trades I take in a row. You can read more about the timeless money management rules in lesson three of the MATI Trader System programme. Reason #4: Losses stop the “Hot Hand Fallacy” Another reason that I love losses when trading is that it reminds me that the winning streak will come to an end. This keeps me humbled and grounded to know that there will be a time where I’ll need to give back to the market, when the trading environment is less conducive to the trading strategy. Reason #5: Losses don’t take me back to the drawing board After a winning streak ends, you’ll find new traders will then quit trading and look for another system to find that will work for them during the changing market environment. The thing is they don’t realise and accept that losses come with the trading territory and that one should never throw a profitable system away because a market enters into a drawdown phase. Let me know what you thought about today's trading tutorial. I'm just sharing information I've learnt over the last 20 years as a trader. Trade well, Live Free... Timon MATI Trader
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🌺The Dollar and the Debt Crisis🌺 👉The fact that the whole world is in massive Debt that can not be repaid is a buzzphrase that was around for like 20 years already. 20 years passed and nothing bad has happened, so what to worry about? In fact an entire political and economic movement called MMT or a modern monetary theory emerged claiming that government debt does not matter and that we can, you guessed it, print as much as we need(oversimplified I know but still) ☠️However, the size of the debt itself was never really and issue so long as the government or a big company could SERVICE the debts. That is if their cashflow was positive enough to cover the interest payments on the debt. NOW however, as the FED is raising rates, this IS an issue. 🤡And its not the USA who’s pile of debt we need to be worried about(they are borrowing in the currency they can print themselves, remember?) but rather the rest of the world and the companies. The majority of developing countries don’t have the internal capital required for development, so they need to borrow on the international financial markets in Dollars. And these counties are now facing a perfect storm of a higher cost of new borrowings in Dollars, lower revenues from foreign trade due to recession(and yes we are in a recession, Wake up) and the massive energy and food costs due to the war in Ukraine and the problems caused by the supply chain crisis. 🤯 Big public companies aren’t doing great either. The share of listed companies with the debt servicing costs higher than the profits is now more than 25% and if we exclude the accounting and financial engineering shenanigans, it is save to say that this share is close to 30%. 😱So the THIRD of the economy is outright insolvent. Multiple countries will either default soon or will at least be plunge into civil and economic unrest and go the way of Sri-Lanka, Pakistan and others… And Jerome Powell said that he aint stopping and that the Fed funds rate should go up by at least 2 percentage points more. So instead of the collapse of the USA, we are likely to see a chain reaction debt crisis In the rest of the world unless the FED changes its mind… 🙈We shall see what happens, but warned means armed. And I defo warned u guys! 🌺Hope u like my 5 cents on the issue. A Civilised discussion in the comments is welcomed! Love, Anabel❤️ Please, support my work with like and comment! Love you, my dear followers!👩‍💻🌸
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How to increase your win rate in trading.The first three years of my trading career were a nightmare. I was all alone, trying to study and apply the course material I bought from a guru who ghosted me a few months later. He didn’t teach me anything besides telling me how to study the course and what my future will look like with trading. I followed his instruction, failed, and told him about the outcome. The response I always got was to study again. After some time I stopped following his advice. I decided to study what other successful traders were doing. And I found the cause of my problem - not taking responsibility. At first, I didn’t understand how I’m not taking responsibility. Because I forced myself to study the course and apply everything taught. But as I questioned myself and searched for the answers, I bumped into an AHA moment that was a game changer. It improved my trading performance. I unconsciously devoted myself to creating and mastering my 3 edges, which are my: 1. Technical edge. 2. Risk management edge. 3. Psychological edge. Following the steps we'll discuss below, allowed me to become responsible. And made me realize that taking charge of your trading career early on is important. Because it shortens the journey from being an unsuccessful trader to a successful one. Not Taking Responsibility For Your Trading Results Prevents You From Succeeding There are other factors that lead to avoiding being responsible, such as: 1. Focusing on the outcome instead of the journey. 2. Not documenting our performance. 3. Blaming the markets and brokers. Without realizing that it's holding us back. Taking responsibility creates integrity. Many people have been taught to believe that accepting responsibility weakens their position or causes them to look bad. But in reality, the inverse is true. By taking responsibility and accepting the consequences, we create safe places of trust and learning. We then stay in a learning loop that makes us better traders. With that said, let me show you how to stay in the loop and become a full-time successful trader. Step 1: Create a Trading and Risk Management Plan Having a plan will get you to cut distractions to keep you focused. But it needs to clearly outline all your strategies, rules, and processes for execution, managing, and reviewing to do that. It will save you a lot of time and allow you to run your trading business smoothly. Like any other successful business, they have the plan to run successfully. So, take time to create your own trading and risk management (business) plan. It must include your: - objectives and executive summary, - trading system strategies and rules, tools, and checklists, - risk management strategies, - as well as processes for planning, executing, managing, and reviewing your trades. Step 2: Document everything you do in your Trading Journal. Keeping a trading journal that has your thought processes written in it before, during, and after your trades, will allow you to execute the next step. Thus having it will keep a record of what led to missing, losing, or winning a trade. You need that data. If you don’t have it, you won’t be in a learning loop, which will result in being stuck in the same place. So, create a simple journal on Notion or buy one on Amazon. If you decide to create it in Notion, it must include your: - entry, stop loss and take profit details that have reasons behind the trade, - emotions before, during, and after the trade, - before and after chart images. Now with all the data, it's time for the next step. Step 3: Review your performance 2-4 times a month. This is where you become responsible for your trading. This is where you start and stay stuck in a learning loop that insures trading success. This is where you become the top 5% who make it. What you need to do here is simple. Set a time or day to review your performance using your journal and software that’s like (or is) Myfxbook. You can do this daily, weekly, or monthly. Not quarterly or yearly. Unless you’re a veteran trader who knows what they’re doing, why they're doing it, and how they should continue doing what they do to stay successful. That’s the stage you should be aiming at. If you haven’t reached it, review your performance daily, either after your trading session or before sleeping time. Follow the above steps and start molding yourself into one of the best traders in the world who are rich, famous, and free.
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BTC: Increased Odds for an Expansion Down Event ApproachingHi Everyone! Simply wanted to provide an update in regard to increased odds for more expansion down with our price actions and B-Bands. We can see we have increased odds for Stage 1 Expansion Down in the 6-hour, 8-hour, 12-hour and 24-hour time frames. We have increased odds for Stage 2 Expansion Down in the 2-Day and 4-Day time frames. The Blue Line in the 3-Day time frame is what has been delaying Stage 2 Expansion Down in the Near Term Group of time frames. Will we begin to see visible sign of Stage 2 Expansion Down the remainder of the current 3-Day candle? It's possible. Especially, since our 6-hour, 8-hour, 12-hour, 24-hour and 2-Day time frames show increased odds for another episode of expansion down approaching. So, in my opinion, we have increased odds for another Sign of Weakness in Phase E of Distribution. Why am I saying "another" Sign of Weakness in Phase E? Because we have been going sideways for quite a while since our "close" below $17,600. This "ranging sideways" in the price action may be acting as our Preliminary Support Range for our future Accumulation Schematic. What event should occur after a Preliminary Support Range in Accumulation? That would be a "Selling Climax" event in Phase A of Accumulation. It's also important to realize a "Sign of Weakness" event in Distribution can also be acting as a "Selling Climax" event in Accumulation. It's important to realize Phase A of Accumulation and Phase E of Distribution ALWAYS OVERLAP ONE ANOTHER. I hope this publication was helpful to you... If you would, take a couple of seconds of your time to click the "like" (boost) icon to show your support. It would be greatly appreciated. Happy Trading and Stay Awesome, Everyone! David
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Bitcoin - 🎯 Phoenix Ascending & BBandsHi Traders, Investors and Speculators 📈📉 Ev here. Been trading crypto since 2017 and later got into stocks. I have 3 board exams on financial markets and studied economics from a top tier university for a year. Daytime job - Math Teacher. 👩🏫 Bitcoin just closed another weekly candle and the price is currently stabilizing on support zone of $16000. By using two technical indicators together, we can determine which directions most likely next, bullish or bearish. The Bollinger Bands together with Phoenix Ascending also gives a potential specific price target that can likely be anticipated next. Interested in XRPUSDT and other alts? Check out this idea 👀 _______________________ 📢Follow us here on TradingView for daily updates and trade ideas on crypto , stocks and commodities 💎Hit like & Follow 👍 We thank you for your support ! CryptoCheck
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GBPAUD I Where to Buy this Week!Welcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments! **GBPAUD - Listen to video! We recommend that you keep this pair on your watchlist and enter when the entry criteria of your strategy is met. Please support this idea with a LIKE and COMMENT if you find it useful and Click "Follow" on our profile if you'd like these trade ideas delivered straight to your email in the future. Thanks for your continued support! Brian & Kenya Horton, BK Forex Academy
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MATICUSDT is testing the dynamic support The price is testing the support after a clear breakout from the weekly support. How to approach it? IF the price is going to create a new breakout, According to Plancton's strategy , we can set a nice order ––––– Keep in mind. 🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure. 🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure. 🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure. 🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure. ⚫️ black structure -> <= 1h structure. ––––– Follow the Shrimp 🦐
1
Daily Bitcoin Update - A move lower from Bitcoin - What Next?Morning all, Full TA in the video as usual. Some notes: - Bitcoin was rejected again and the Inverse Head and Shoulders IMO is invalidated. - Looking at the fib levels we added in the last video for support. - A key thing to look out for is a bearish retest of previous support. - Indicators are looking bearish in general across multiple timeframes. - Pre-markets are in the red which gives you an indication of the direction of the market, although this could change. - FED meeting is coming up. Will the markets start to position themselves accordingly in the lead-up. - There seems to be quite a lot of FUD for this week regarding Bitcoin. - SPX, NASDAQ, ES1 - all trading at key support / resistance levels. Watch to see if these hold or not. A move lower and Bitcoin might follow. Please hit the boost button if you like this update. Back tomorrow. Thanks SIMON BPOI
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