Weekly Timeframe: Last week saw active selling come into the market from just below weekly supply at 1.1678-1.1458. This consequently saw the Euro print a full-bodied bearish candle stretching almost 200 pips from open (1.1388) to close (1.1189). Assuming that the sellers can continue with this tempo, we see very little reason why price cannot retest the weekly Quasimodo support level this week at 1.1109.
Daily Timeframe: The daily timeframe shows that the majority of selling was seen on Thursday (news related), which consequently took out a small daily demand area at 1.1260-1.1318. This move is significant in our opinion, owing to the fact that this daily demand held the market higher since the 4th march! With this zone out of the way, the path south is very likely free this week for price to challenge the daily demand area coming in at 1.1045-1.1127 (encapsulates the aforementioned weekly Quasimodo support level).
4hr Timeframe: For anyone who read our last report on the Euro, you may recall us mentioning that if price were to close above the 1.1200 mark, we’d then begin looking for price to retest this level as support and rally up to 4hr supply at 1.1262-1.1240, which as you can see, did happen. Unfortunately though, we were unable to find an entry long here to take advantage of this move, well done to anyone who did!
The Euro ended the week closing below and retesting the 1.1200 level as resistance. Providing that the sellers can hold out below 1.1200 today, our team will ultimately be in ‘short mode’. With lower timeframe confirmation, we’ll happily short down to the mid-level number 1.1150 marked in yellow, which will be our first take-profit target. In the event that price continues lower, our second and final take-profit target will be set just above the weekly Quasimodo support level seen in pink at 1.1109.
Some of you are probably thinking that it may not be wise to consider shorting the market when price is so near to a weekly support. You could very well be right. Nevertheless, what gives us confidence here is that price took out a relatively supportive daily demand area coming in at 1.1260-1.1318 (see above), which, to us, shows that most of the buying pressure is likely consumed and price may sell off.
Current buy/sell orders:
• Buy orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).
• Sell orders: currently watching for lower timeframe price confirmation around 1.1200 (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: dependent on where one confirms this level).