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Launch Chart
7 hours ago
2
640
We are in a consolidation phase. Let the market decide which way to go and buy/sell the breakout.
Possible targets are on the chart. Atleast 33% profit within a month after breakout should be possible.
Are you ready ? : ]
Possible targets are on the chart. Atleast 33% profit within a month after breakout should be possible.
Are you ready ? : ]
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10 hours ago
13
297
Auto-critic First
- Many people recently told me " you keep shorting a market that only goes up"
- That is partially true but is also making an implicit false statement.
(1) I have been looking for shorts since Jun14 (had some success, took profit in the right places and also got stopped tactically a few times).
(2) I am still holding the view that there is a top building process but i did not know what shape it would take (it is becoming clearer now and i will explain my view lower in this post)
(3) In the mean time the volatility has increased and although it appears the market keeps going up, overall the progress has only been 7% from top to top with many corrections of 5% and one correction of 10% within.
Going back to the market only:
- Since June 14, I "know" some sort of correction is coming (flat, fast, slow, volatile?).
- It could have had different shapes:
(a) Fast and swift 20% correction with bottoming process and resumption of the rally.
(b) A longer topping process with more shallow corrections and new high which may lead to a more lasting top (counter intuitively)
- It seems that the market has elected for (b) in the US while Europe is making its catchup.
- The Volatility Regime is interesting: volatility reduction until Jul14 and then got very agitated with no ability to break lower.
- I think the last move up is a squeeze that will leave space for another 10% correction in the next 8 weeks.
- Then i foresee, SPX may enjoy a last rally of 12/14% from 1900 which may be slow/steady over 3 months (a more sanguine rally than the Nov14 one).
- This last top in july15 (the 3rd one over 12 months) may leave the market subject to a longer/calmer/deeper correction into year end (a move where the volatility would increase gradually marking acceptance of the new price paradigm)
Conclusion in short:
- My view is the current new top is a bull trap and is part of a triple top in the second top which is forming since November 2014.
- Risk to that base scenario: some more drift up for 1/4 weeks up to 2140/2160 (europe will not allow i think).
- Whatever happens, given the posture on Dax, Nasdaq, Biotech... a correction is due in the next 8 weeks.
It is close to impossible to short tops without bearing 3/4% adverse moves over 3/5 weeks.
it is tricky because either you short small (30/40% size, that is probably the right thing to do) or you deal with options which can be eroded in theta if there is resilience.
My trading stance:
- 3 weeks ago i went short through 2000/1930 march put spread (will be a close call) and added 20% short via future.
- Now, after 3 weeks, and the market having gone up, I have added 20% short.
- The position is bleeding a bit but that was part of the game plan and I think it will perform either very well if a collapse occurs in the next 3 weeks or decently if after.
Note1: I am not holding short against a market that can make moves of 10% vertically. There is a market structure that prevents that when it comes close to the red line which only allows for drifts that are manageable (the situation was very different in Europe and that is why i have largely refrained from shorts on the DAX/ESTX).
Note2: With the latest move in Europe, the US / EUROPE posture is in better sync now.
I am a swing trader. To enjoy the honey, you need to bear some bee bites.
Don t forget the time perception, I noticed:
- People forgive me more for being wrong 5% in 2 days where i stop rather than 2% over 4 weeks where i hold my position and repeat myself.
I foresee some nice swings going forward.
Best,
Yacine Kanoun
- Many people recently told me " you keep shorting a market that only goes up"
- That is partially true but is also making an implicit false statement.
(1) I have been looking for shorts since Jun14 (had some success, took profit in the right places and also got stopped tactically a few times).
(2) I am still holding the view that there is a top building process but i did not know what shape it would take (it is becoming clearer now and i will explain my view lower in this post)
(3) In the mean time the volatility has increased and although it appears the market keeps going up, overall the progress has only been 7% from top to top with many corrections of 5% and one correction of 10% within.
Going back to the market only:
- Since June 14, I "know" some sort of correction is coming (flat, fast, slow, volatile?).
- It could have had different shapes:
(a) Fast and swift 20% correction with bottoming process and resumption of the rally.
(b) A longer topping process with more shallow corrections and new high which may lead to a more lasting top (counter intuitively)
- It seems that the market has elected for (b) in the US while Europe is making its catchup.
- The Volatility Regime is interesting: volatility reduction until Jul14 and then got very agitated with no ability to break lower.
- I think the last move up is a squeeze that will leave space for another 10% correction in the next 8 weeks.
- Then i foresee, SPX may enjoy a last rally of 12/14% from 1900 which may be slow/steady over 3 months (a more sanguine rally than the Nov14 one).
- This last top in july15 (the 3rd one over 12 months) may leave the market subject to a longer/calmer/deeper correction into year end (a move where the volatility would increase gradually marking acceptance of the new price paradigm)
Conclusion in short:
- My view is the current new top is a bull trap and is part of a triple top in the second top which is forming since November 2014.
- Risk to that base scenario: some more drift up for 1/4 weeks up to 2140/2160 (europe will not allow i think).
- Whatever happens, given the posture on Dax, Nasdaq, Biotech... a correction is due in the next 8 weeks.
It is close to impossible to short tops without bearing 3/4% adverse moves over 3/5 weeks.
it is tricky because either you short small (30/40% size, that is probably the right thing to do) or you deal with options which can be eroded in theta if there is resilience.
My trading stance:
- 3 weeks ago i went short through 2000/1930 march put spread (will be a close call) and added 20% short via future.
- Now, after 3 weeks, and the market having gone up, I have added 20% short.
- The position is bleeding a bit but that was part of the game plan and I think it will perform either very well if a collapse occurs in the next 3 weeks or decently if after.
Note1: I am not holding short against a market that can make moves of 10% vertically. There is a market structure that prevents that when it comes close to the red line which only allows for drifts that are manageable (the situation was very different in Europe and that is why i have largely refrained from shorts on the DAX/ESTX).
Note2: With the latest move in Europe, the US / EUROPE posture is in better sync now.
I am a swing trader. To enjoy the honey, you need to bear some bee bites.
Don t forget the time perception, I noticed:
- People forgive me more for being wrong 5% in 2 days where i stop rather than 2% over 4 weeks where i hold my position and repeat myself.
I foresee some nice swings going forward.
Best,
Yacine Kanoun
12 hours ago
12
181
wave a is in progress as a smaller expanding diagonal. ((v)) is a zigzag so expect abc up to 320.86 to complete wave a of 5 of the larger expanding diagonal
1 hour ago
24
144
Unless Bitcoin manages a lasting break above 300, the apex of the descending cone points to 40 by year end.
The band is becoming very narrow. to achieve this would mean a lowering in realised volatility which would mean an acceptation of the new price paradigm (a slow death in other words).
I like watching bitcoin only because for me it is a great case study of human behaviour (more than other indices that have macro forces affecting the price too).
19 hours ago
2
9153
“There will come a time in your life when you lose something that matters to you. You'll fight for it and you won't win. But what really matters isn't the war you're waging, it's that you don't lose the person you are, in the midst of the battle.”
― J. Sterling, The Perfect Game
... Remember those words once I've taken your account from you.
― J. Sterling, The Perfect Game
... Remember those words once I've taken your account from you.
23 hours ago
6
326
Gold been tough for longs in the last 3 weeks.
The last chance is probably here.
Long 20% 1213 stop 1175 on close.
The last chance is probably here.
Long 20% 1213 stop 1175 on close.
3 hours ago
10
148
TEST YOUR TRADING SYSTEM
I will not go deep into this, because it quickly becomes a shouting match on who has the best system, which is usually more about ego than fact. It is sufficient to say that I have seen / know of profitable traders who use fundamentals, price patterns, Elliot waves, renko, moving averages, structure levels, pitchforks, trend rules and custom indicators. I will not get into which system is the best, because I have not back tested them all personally. This does not imply that it does not matter what system you use. Far from it. You need a system that gives you an edge. And the only way to know if it does, is to back test it against a relevant amount of data.
ADD FILTERS
Adding filters to your strategy aims at improving your win rate by eliminating losers. It’s a way to get the odds on your side over a larger number of trades. Examples of filters you could add are: trade with the daily trend, trade with the fundamental direction, filter out unprofitable patterns, don’t trade during news events, only trade reversal patterns that complete at a key structure level, only trade breakouts after a retest of the trend line, add an extra indicator (e.g. stoch or sma line crossover or rsi divergence) or use a particular candlestick as a final entry signal. There might be a price to pay: if a particular filter delays your entry point, it can improve your win rate while reducing your reward – risk.
INCREASE THE OPPORTUNITY FACTOR
The opportunity factor relates to how many trades your method allows you to take per day / week / month. If by adding filters you are left with just a few possible trades a week, your win rate can go up, but your overall profit might suffer because there would be fewer trade candidates passing through to your filters. This will leave you with fewer trades to contribute to your overall profitability. You can increase this factor by adding more currency pairs to your portfolio or by adding trading hours to your schedule. When adding pairs, be aware of the correlation to the ones already in your portfolio.
IMPROVE YOUR TRADE MANAGEMENT RULES
Trade management relates to profiting from the trades you decide to enter. It aims at maximising your average winner while minimizing your average loser. The key is having rules that let winners run and exit losing trades without hesitation. Aim for realistic profit targets by reviewing the profit logic of your trades. Predefine a risk that you accept and don’t exceed. One of the ways you can do this, is by managing your trades in a multi-position manner, aiming for several profit targets. Take profit at various stages, as the market makes it available to you and roll your stop loss to break even or a profit protection point as the trade progresses.
DISCILPLINE AND CONSISTENCY
Once you have the right system, rules and filters in place, you just need to trade your plan consistently day in and day out. Monitor your susceptibility for making errors and eliminate them one by one. Relaxed, concentrated and mindful like a Zen Monk. Don’t overtrade by chasing entries. Don’t under-trade by arbitrarily skipping valid opportunities. Be organized and prepared. A random, inconsistent approach to trading leads to random, inconsistent results that will never be optimal. So plan your trade and trade your plan.
TYING IT ALL TOGETHER
Simply put, your expectancy per month is the opportunity factor multiplied by both the win rate and the average winner less the opportunity factor multiplied by both the lose rate and the average loser. For the example from my prior topic (see the link under Related Ideas), we know that the calculation was as follows: expectancy per month = 90 x 55% x €120,00 – 90 x 45% x €80,00 = €2.700,00. I have tried to give some tips and trick on how to influence each of the variables in this calculation with the aim to arrive at an improved mix, leading to an improved profitability.
I will not go deep into this, because it quickly becomes a shouting match on who has the best system, which is usually more about ego than fact. It is sufficient to say that I have seen / know of profitable traders who use fundamentals, price patterns, Elliot waves, renko, moving averages, structure levels, pitchforks, trend rules and custom indicators. I will not get into which system is the best, because I have not back tested them all personally. This does not imply that it does not matter what system you use. Far from it. You need a system that gives you an edge. And the only way to know if it does, is to back test it against a relevant amount of data.
ADD FILTERS
Adding filters to your strategy aims at improving your win rate by eliminating losers. It’s a way to get the odds on your side over a larger number of trades. Examples of filters you could add are: trade with the daily trend, trade with the fundamental direction, filter out unprofitable patterns, don’t trade during news events, only trade reversal patterns that complete at a key structure level, only trade breakouts after a retest of the trend line, add an extra indicator (e.g. stoch or sma line crossover or rsi divergence) or use a particular candlestick as a final entry signal. There might be a price to pay: if a particular filter delays your entry point, it can improve your win rate while reducing your reward – risk.
INCREASE THE OPPORTUNITY FACTOR
The opportunity factor relates to how many trades your method allows you to take per day / week / month. If by adding filters you are left with just a few possible trades a week, your win rate can go up, but your overall profit might suffer because there would be fewer trade candidates passing through to your filters. This will leave you with fewer trades to contribute to your overall profitability. You can increase this factor by adding more currency pairs to your portfolio or by adding trading hours to your schedule. When adding pairs, be aware of the correlation to the ones already in your portfolio.
IMPROVE YOUR TRADE MANAGEMENT RULES
Trade management relates to profiting from the trades you decide to enter. It aims at maximising your average winner while minimizing your average loser. The key is having rules that let winners run and exit losing trades without hesitation. Aim for realistic profit targets by reviewing the profit logic of your trades. Predefine a risk that you accept and don’t exceed. One of the ways you can do this, is by managing your trades in a multi-position manner, aiming for several profit targets. Take profit at various stages, as the market makes it available to you and roll your stop loss to break even or a profit protection point as the trade progresses.
DISCILPLINE AND CONSISTENCY
Once you have the right system, rules and filters in place, you just need to trade your plan consistently day in and day out. Monitor your susceptibility for making errors and eliminate them one by one. Relaxed, concentrated and mindful like a Zen Monk. Don’t overtrade by chasing entries. Don’t under-trade by arbitrarily skipping valid opportunities. Be organized and prepared. A random, inconsistent approach to trading leads to random, inconsistent results that will never be optimal. So plan your trade and trade your plan.
TYING IT ALL TOGETHER
Simply put, your expectancy per month is the opportunity factor multiplied by both the win rate and the average winner less the opportunity factor multiplied by both the lose rate and the average loser. For the example from my prior topic (see the link under Related Ideas), we know that the calculation was as follows: expectancy per month = 90 x 55% x €120,00 – 90 x 45% x €80,00 = €2.700,00. I have tried to give some tips and trick on how to influence each of the variables in this calculation with the aim to arrive at an improved mix, leading to an improved profitability.
22 hours ago
6
157
AAPL is now worth over $700 Billion. The company had a record quarter ( understatement) thanks in part to sales of their iPhone 6 . The return on the stock this month is ~ 10.3 %.
Apple will hold an event in a few weeks to introduce new products. You can expect more detail and official launch date for the Apple watch , Macbook air "2", and perhaps an 12.9" iPad ( running full OS X ??) .
REUTERS reports that the tech giant asked its Asian suppliers to make 6 million units of its three Apple Watch models. At a starting price of $349 , the Apple watch is quite expensive and may be a concern for some investors. Can Apple really sell a watch that needs a different charger AND needs to be charged EVERY night ? o_O , only time will tell.
If the Apple Watch is a success , this could potentially add approx $ 5 billion/quarter. In any case , Apple remains a solid long positions, and may reach $150 by the end of the year , as many have suggested. Still long.
Cheers
Algo
Apple will hold an event in a few weeks to introduce new products. You can expect more detail and official launch date for the Apple watch , Macbook air "2", and perhaps an 12.9" iPad ( running full OS X ??) .
REUTERS reports that the tech giant asked its Asian suppliers to make 6 million units of its three Apple Watch models. At a starting price of $349 , the Apple watch is quite expensive and may be a concern for some investors. Can Apple really sell a watch that needs a different charger AND needs to be charged EVERY night ? o_O , only time will tell.
If the Apple Watch is a success , this could potentially add approx $ 5 billion/quarter. In any case , Apple remains a solid long positions, and may reach $150 by the end of the year , as many have suggested. Still long.
Cheers
Algo
21 hours ago
1
108
When I see a stock go from 2.6 times sales to 6.4 times sales while revenues have fallen from $21 billion to $16 billion, you can tell that investors are hoping for something big coming down the road.
For now, I'll look for a trip down to the lower end of the rising regression channel.
Risk - $64 or $65. Target $53-$54.
Tim 4:25PM EST Feb 27, 2015
For now, I'll look for a trip down to the lower end of the rising regression channel.
Risk - $64 or $65. Target $53-$54.
Tim 4:25PM EST Feb 27, 2015
1 day ago
12
313
The last few days were very strong and came as a surprise in posture where all indices could have corrected.
The correction is still pending and could happen any time although grinding higher is very possible now that the motion is in place.
The blue trajectory is just speculation for now.
As per my previous trade with stop 10400 on close - today it worked. let's see monday.
The correction is still pending and could happen any time although grinding higher is very possible now that the motion is in place.
The blue trajectory is just speculation for now.
As per my previous trade with stop 10400 on close - today it worked. let's see monday.
22 hours ago
1
50
- could fall from here -
18 hours ago
1
27
And the GLD splits the two. Noticing that GLD trending up. What does that say about pro players leans to the markets near future action? GLD will miror VXX , and cross SPY on its way down IMO.
20 hours ago
2
65
Always good to look back in time.
remember this :
Tiscali – Important Italian telecommunications company whose share price grew from €46 (IPO in November 1999) to €1,197 in four months. They fell to €40 afterwards in less than two months and have continued plummeting to well under 0.2 euro.[
Think Tools AG – One of the most extreme symptoms of the bubble in Europe: market valuation of CHF 2.5 billion in March 2000, no prospects of having a substantial product (investor deception), followed by a collapse
InfoSpace – In March 2000 this stock reached a price $1,305 per share, but by April 2001 the price had crashed down to $22 a share.
The only thing you have to do is maybe replace Tiscali by Snapchat and Tinktools by Uber :)
Everytime the RSI is overbrought in the monthly , There will be a correction that year.
So it's just waiting now , who turn the fire on the wick :)
remember this :
Tiscali – Important Italian telecommunications company whose share price grew from €46 (IPO in November 1999) to €1,197 in four months. They fell to €40 afterwards in less than two months and have continued plummeting to well under 0.2 euro.[
Think Tools AG – One of the most extreme symptoms of the bubble in Europe: market valuation of CHF 2.5 billion in March 2000, no prospects of having a substantial product (investor deception), followed by a collapse
InfoSpace – In March 2000 this stock reached a price $1,305 per share, but by April 2001 the price had crashed down to $22 a share.
The only thing you have to do is maybe replace Tiscali by Snapchat and Tinktools by Uber :)
Everytime the RSI is overbrought in the monthly , There will be a correction that year.
So it's just waiting now , who turn the fire on the wick :)
22 hours ago
3
91
- easy to recede from here - on first touch at least.
8 hours ago
1
74
1. As said, price faced resistance at the 38.2% retracement level from Weekly TF.
2. I can see price retracing to 1.517-1.524 zone before making another push to the up side
2. I can see price retracing to 1.517-1.524 zone before making another push to the up side
18 hours ago
2
38
notes on chart, possibilities.
18 hours ago
2
38
Lets add TLT and oil. TLT rending up , OIL at an historic moment. WHICH WAY DOES IT GO? Oversupply, demand less, contracting world needs less. Scary version.... drum role please, what if OIL is actually in one big ABCD pattern? The page isn't low enough for me to draw the line at "D" that low. That would be your big correction bears (SPY).
