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Since publishing last USDJPY chart suggesting bearish pull back or correction the price action has been relatively choppy and sideways congestion with associated difficulties in labelling correct counts on each swings.

However it appears that with initial zigzag decline in to Dec low, the price action has formed what appears to be bearish triangle which could be complete offering potential short opportunity in wave C decline which should be comparatively strong not overlapping 5 wave decline to conservative 114 downside target.

Summary:

1. Bearish triangle.
2. RSI divergence with price between point C and E.
3. Important 120 level appears to be strong resistance which it failed to take out so far.
4. It has been out of sync with SP500 for sometime which could now could now snap back with both declining together (see chart below)
5. Invalidation pint would be 120.45
6. Potential downside target 114 (conservative)

As always, do your own analysis for your trade requirement. Select to follow me and the chart for notification of future updates. If you like the analysis then please indicate this by thumbs up, comments and sharing with others. If you have an alternative idea then please share for all to learn from.

Thank you for taking the time to read my analysis.

DanV
danv-charting.com

As this bat completed and we are in a profitable trade, a next step becomes visible in the form of a potential cypher pattern completing @ structure which could indicate till where we can let our profits run and reverse our position to long to benefit some additional profits

This cypher is incorrect as B-point was incorrectly drawn in. Sorry guys ... not free of mistakes yet :D

All informations on the chart.
Just factual for the record.

Not trivial.

If breaks 120.30, it could reach 122 rather quickly.

if 120.30 retains, a failure of the channel up would probably bring to 117 later this months.

.

My best guess at the moment.

This is a follow up on the previous analysis posted a month ago. I've been bearish on EURAUD for a while. And RBA rate cuts or no, Euro is more fundamentally weaker than the Aussie and technically too, the signs are far too many to miss.

This is a long term trade idea. The ones you can set and forget without being getting involved too close. Longer term target is 1.295 with an optimistic lower dip to 1.16 as well.

Taking short positions in EURAUD is also rewarding in the overnight swaps. And as long as RBA stays above the 1% interest rate, we should expect to see +ve rollover swaps. Considering this is the weekly trade, expect to keep this trade open for at least a few quarters at the minimum. The collected swaps will amount to quite some money.

Have been preparing my traders
for a breakout. Scaled into a long position
over the past couple of days, and did my final
adds on the news that the first Bitcoin ETF is
approved. This is a nice catalyst to combine
with the technical pattern we've been watching.

i think after ab=cd we can see up trend

These 2 paths are the extremes for the next 5 months.

Running a short stance, I need to have a position that survives 2155 by end of Mar15.

In both cases, I should have a pullback to 2050 by end Apr15.

If SPX trades 2150 before it trades 2050, I will be in recovery mode and would exit at 2050.

Monitor the VIX second contract:
- Now at 17.10, if it crosses below 16.40, SPX could be on the blue path.
- Although I would recover the loss/make some money at the end, my trade idea would be wrong and it have used risk for too long in negative territories.

RBA will decide on their interest rate decision very soon. We are currently near a support level stuck within a range. However, RBA decision could break us out of this range. Consensus is that RBA must cut rates BUT if they shock and keep rates the same we could see a rally into the former resistance area. If they cut rates, we could break the support level and see continued downward movement. Be careful with this one.

wave (v) extended greater than 100% of ((i)~(iii)). the advance stopped near the upper channel line. i believe the b wave correction is now underway

There is a potential game plan if the bottom is in place which is possible.

Strategic Trade attempt:

Long 10% at 1207 stop 1150 on close.

AUD/USD has formed bullish BAT pattern in one hour chart so jump till 0.7915 cannot be ruled out. The RBA surprised the markets by keeping rates on hold at 2.25%. The central bank noted that “having eased monetary policy at the previous meeting, it was appropriate to hold the rates for the time being”. It also mentioned that further rate cut will be there over the period ahead.

AUD/USD has recovered till 0.7835 after the RBA monetary policy. On the upside major resistance is 0.7850 and any break above will target 0.7905-0.7915 in short term.

The pair’s minor support is around 0.7800 and any break below will take the pair till 0.7730/0.7695.

Indicators (1 hour chart)
CCI (50) – Buy
CCI (14) – Buy
Ichimoku- Buy

Recommendation: Buy AUD/USD around 0.7820, SL 0.7780, Targets 0.7875/0.7910.

Hi all Fellow Risk Takers,

Here is an update on the "Preemptive Break Out Idea for DirecTV"

PREVIOUSLY
The main concept was to enter long DTV when price was cheap at $84.00, trusting that support buying will come in and push prices higher, leading to an eventual Rectangle Pattern breakout.

Three Scenarios, labelled A, B and C were projected.

Worst case scenario C, where price trades lower below $82.00 was already ruled out in the previous update.
Also step 2 of the Trading Plan (take 50% partial profit) should have been executed by now.

CURRENTLY
We note that price has gently inched past Resistance level of $88.50 with no signs of sharp selling.
Hence we can ruled out Scenario B, leaving Scenario A as the most likely scenario.

PREEMPTIVE TRADING PLAN
Current price levels are now ripe to execute Step 3 of the Scenario A Trading Plan:

Step 1 (Executed): Enter long when price can trade and sustain above $84.00, Stop Loss below $82.00
Step 2 (Executed): Next step will be to take 50% partial profit, when price trades around $87.00, and place your stop loss to breakeven level. This also means you are very unlikely to lose on this trade at this stage.
Step 3 (Execute Now): Wait for price to Break Out above $88.50 and go back long the 50% long position that was closed in Step 2.
With 50% position entered at $84.00 in Step 1, combined with 50% position added above $88.50 in Step 2, you will have effectively built a long Break Out position with a net average price of $86.50. Also the $87.50 Support level will act as "protective shield" against retracements after the bullish breakout. This due to the tendency for previous Resistance levels to become Support levels once broken)

Step 4 (At your Discretion): Shift Stop Loss to Breakeven Level and take profit as price trades towards $95.00.

A simple measurement of Profit Target places the objective to around $95.00, which incidentally is AT&T's offer price to takeover DirecTV.

SIMPLE BREAKOUT TRADING PLAN
For those who currently have no position in DTV can also trade the breakout move above $88.50.
Entry: When Price has a high probability of closing 03 March 2015 above $88.50.

Personally, this means waiting until 10 minutes before market close to see if price is still trading above $88.50 and enter long if that is true.

Stop Loss: Below $86.00
Take Profit: Around $95.00

RISK
There will always be a risk of a false breakout.
Also there maybe also other ways price can move not covered by the scope of Scenario .

REFERENCES
Rectangle Chart Pattern>http://www.babypips.com/school/middle-school/important-chart-patterns/rectangles.html

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Hmm.

Some may have seen GOLD going on the upside and thought that the precious metal may go long. But we are not in that context yet.
of course sometimes when Gold is almost oversold, there are some upside correction, but this will not change the direction of Gold which remains Bear.
I've already given the necessary support level on the downside. 1180 remain an important one.