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Launch Chart
23 hours ago
10
603
I am fully aware of the risk that sequels tend not to be as good as the original (Rocky comes to mind), but I could not resist putting this pair on my watch list again. As my last two publications on this one (see links under Related Ideas) left me with a good amount of pips, I thought I would try to cash in again. I therefore present to you the new installment in the EURJPY series: Consolidation Mode Part III. This pair has been ranging around the key structure kevel of 135.14 for almost 27 days. Despite the mixed Euro data that came out this morning, price drove up 70 pips, so after breaking the key structure level to the downside last Thursday, price is now approaching it again from below.
On the technical side, we can see the contour of a bearish Bat on the hourly timeframe that completes at the mentioned structure level. Price comfortably passed the B point this morning and progressed 55% towards the potential reversal zone (PRZ). When defining the PRZ for a Bat pattern, we look at the projection of three harmonic levels. I: the 886 retracement of XA, II: an extended AB = CD pattern (in this case 1618 AB = CD) and III: a BC expansion (in this case 2618 BC). This defines a clear and tight zone, about 20 pips wide, represented by the orange lines in the chart. The key structure level at 135.14 lies smack in the middle of this zone, increasing the odds on a reversal.
Should the price climb enough to test the PRZ, stabilise and reverse convincingly, I would enter short. SL goes 10 pips behind X. Normally, I look for TP1 = 382 retracement of AD and TP2 = 618 retracement of AD, but in this instance I have placed them both a little higher due to structure support levels.
There are 101 pips to be made (if this pair follows the script) and the trade has a reward – risk ratio of 3.1!
On the technical side, we can see the contour of a bearish Bat on the hourly timeframe that completes at the mentioned structure level. Price comfortably passed the B point this morning and progressed 55% towards the potential reversal zone (PRZ). When defining the PRZ for a Bat pattern, we look at the projection of three harmonic levels. I: the 886 retracement of XA, II: an extended AB = CD pattern (in this case 1618 AB = CD) and III: a BC expansion (in this case 2618 BC). This defines a clear and tight zone, about 20 pips wide, represented by the orange lines in the chart. The key structure level at 135.14 lies smack in the middle of this zone, increasing the odds on a reversal.
Should the price climb enough to test the PRZ, stabilise and reverse convincingly, I would enter short. SL goes 10 pips behind X. Normally, I look for TP1 = 382 retracement of AD and TP2 = 618 retracement of AD, but in this instance I have placed them both a little higher due to structure support levels.
There are 101 pips to be made (if this pair follows the script) and the trade has a reward – risk ratio of 3.1!
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27748 (+136)
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528 (+107)
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20183 (+88)
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6618 (+84)
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1981 (+78)
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2918 (+73)
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18 hours ago
8
331
Not trivial.
If breaks 120.30, it could reach 122 rather quickly.
if 120.30 retains, a failure of the channel up would probably bring to 117 later this months.
If breaks 120.30, it could reach 122 rather quickly.
if 120.30 retains, a failure of the channel up would probably bring to 117 later this months.
1 day ago
4
2713
Have been preparing my traders
for a breakout. Scaled into a long position
over the past couple of days, and did my final
adds on the news that the first Bitcoin ETF is
approved. This is a nice catalyst to combine
with the technical pattern we've been watching.
for a breakout. Scaled into a long position
over the past couple of days, and did my final
adds on the news that the first Bitcoin ETF is
approved. This is a nice catalyst to combine
with the technical pattern we've been watching.
1 hour ago
11
164
As this bat completed and we are in a profitable trade, a next step becomes visible in the form of a potential cypher pattern completing @ structure which could indicate till where we can let our profits run and reverse our position to long to benefit some additional profits
This cypher is incorrect as B-point was incorrectly drawn in. Sorry guys ... not free of mistakes yet :D
This cypher is incorrect as B-point was incorrectly drawn in. Sorry guys ... not free of mistakes yet :D
6 hours ago
2
228
My best guess at the moment.
18 hours ago
3
150
This is a follow up on the previous analysis posted a month ago. I've been bearish on EURAUD for a while. And RBA rate cuts or no, Euro is more fundamentally weaker than the Aussie and technically too, the signs are far too many to miss.
This is a long term trade idea. The ones you can set and forget without being getting involved too close. Longer term target is 1.295 with an optimistic lower dip to 1.16 as well.
Taking short positions in EURAUD is also rewarding in the overnight swaps. And as long as RBA stays above the 1% interest rate, we should expect to see +ve rollover swaps. Considering this is the weekly trade, expect to keep this trade open for at least a few quarters at the minimum. The collected swaps will amount to quite some money.
This is a long term trade idea. The ones you can set and forget without being getting involved too close. Longer term target is 1.295 with an optimistic lower dip to 1.16 as well.
Taking short positions in EURAUD is also rewarding in the overnight swaps. And as long as RBA stays above the 1% interest rate, we should expect to see +ve rollover swaps. Considering this is the weekly trade, expect to keep this trade open for at least a few quarters at the minimum. The collected swaps will amount to quite some money.
19 hours ago
0
302
A correction is pending.
The best case resilience is between 1 day and 4 weeks from here.
if resilience it could be flat or climb 20/30pts from here.
When it falls (confirmed by trading below 2055), it will likely break decisively the 2000 area to test the 1900 area.
A large rally could ensue again (if market fundamentals remained the same during the correction).
The best case resilience is between 1 day and 4 weeks from here.
if resilience it could be flat or climb 20/30pts from here.
When it falls (confirmed by trading below 2055), it will likely break decisively the 2000 area to test the 1900 area.
A large rally could ensue again (if market fundamentals remained the same during the correction).
1 day ago
1
295
Let's have a check list and see what and how is changing in Price action.
Daily:
- Last three days show undecision, bullish momentum dropped further. Heikin Ashi candles turn red, haDelta slowly decreasing below zero line. Oscillator turns bearish
- As a new signal MACD is about to give a warning signal, we may see a bearish cross attempt soon. However we still can not exclude similar Price action to the one that happened in late November-early December. Back then Price made a minor swing down below Tenkan Sen, but the first dip was bought. The selling accelerated only later, when Kijun Sen got higher too. The case is a bit similar now. Tenkan Sen at 2102 acts as first minor support, but Kijun is still lower. Anyway, there is a bearish divergence developing in this market, and chance of a pull back is increasing.
4H:
- Price has been moving sideaway for almost a week now. Kumo has been getting thinner below Price as volatility is decreasing. The support level is clear at 2100, there we have 100 WMA, forward Senkou B line, and Chikou horizontal level too.
- ADX is still decreasing, with mixed DMI signals.
- Heikin Ashi candles are mixed, haDelta swinging just around zero line, while the oscillator has been bearish for a while (negative divergence)
I think a correction is really close now. The only thing that keeps SP500 levitating is the extremely euphoric bullish Price action in European equities, which sends European Indexes all over the roof. A chill down will eventually happen in Europe too, and then SP500 as a relatively weaker index will do its round down.
For short entry watch 2100! Lower daily supports and corrective tgts are: 2075-2080 and 2055-2060.
p.s.: There is again an interesting phenomenon in VIX futures. Market is so confidently bullish, that March VIX is trading -155 points below April VIX futures, while there is still around 3 weeks left until March VIX maturity. It is very rare to see this kind of low volatility Pricing, and this very wide spread between the two front VIX contracts. So this can be a good trade opportunity as well to play correction: buy VIX March vs Selling VIX April. Given the technical picture, the downside on further spread widenning is limited, while in case of a quick correction the spread can tighten back towards -50 or 0.
Daily:
- Last three days show undecision, bullish momentum dropped further. Heikin Ashi candles turn red, haDelta slowly decreasing below zero line. Oscillator turns bearish
- As a new signal MACD is about to give a warning signal, we may see a bearish cross attempt soon. However we still can not exclude similar Price action to the one that happened in late November-early December. Back then Price made a minor swing down below Tenkan Sen, but the first dip was bought. The selling accelerated only later, when Kijun Sen got higher too. The case is a bit similar now. Tenkan Sen at 2102 acts as first minor support, but Kijun is still lower. Anyway, there is a bearish divergence developing in this market, and chance of a pull back is increasing.
4H:
- Price has been moving sideaway for almost a week now. Kumo has been getting thinner below Price as volatility is decreasing. The support level is clear at 2100, there we have 100 WMA, forward Senkou B line, and Chikou horizontal level too.
- ADX is still decreasing, with mixed DMI signals.
- Heikin Ashi candles are mixed, haDelta swinging just around zero line, while the oscillator has been bearish for a while (negative divergence)
I think a correction is really close now. The only thing that keeps SP500 levitating is the extremely euphoric bullish Price action in European equities, which sends European Indexes all over the roof. A chill down will eventually happen in Europe too, and then SP500 as a relatively weaker index will do its round down.
For short entry watch 2100! Lower daily supports and corrective tgts are: 2075-2080 and 2055-2060.
p.s.: There is again an interesting phenomenon in VIX futures. Market is so confidently bullish, that March VIX is trading -155 points below April VIX futures, while there is still around 3 weeks left until March VIX maturity. It is very rare to see this kind of low volatility Pricing, and this very wide spread between the two front VIX contracts. So this can be a good trade opportunity as well to play correction: buy VIX March vs Selling VIX April. Given the technical picture, the downside on further spread widenning is limited, while in case of a quick correction the spread can tighten back towards -50 or 0.
20 hours ago
4
267
Objectively: bull flag
Trading:
Candide - you buy.
Vicious - you sell.
ISM will conclude the posture in 24 minutes.
Trading:
Candide - you buy.
Vicious - you sell.
ISM will conclude the posture in 24 minutes.
1 hour ago
2
92
These 2 paths are the extremes for the next 5 months.
Running a short stance, I need to have a position that survives 2155 by end of Mar15.
In both cases, I should have a pullback to 2050 by end Apr15.
If SPX trades 2150 before it trades 2050, I will be in recovery mode and would exit at 2050.
Monitor the VIX second contract:
- Now at 17.10, if it crosses below 16.40, SPX could be on the blue path.
- Although I would recover the loss/make some money at the end, my trade idea would be wrong and it have used risk for too long in negative territories.
Running a short stance, I need to have a position that survives 2155 by end of Mar15.
In both cases, I should have a pullback to 2050 by end Apr15.
If SPX trades 2150 before it trades 2050, I will be in recovery mode and would exit at 2050.
Monitor the VIX second contract:
- Now at 17.10, if it crosses below 16.40, SPX could be on the blue path.
- Although I would recover the loss/make some money at the end, my trade idea would be wrong and it have used risk for too long in negative territories.
15 hours ago
3
61
Hi all Fellow Risk Takers,
Here is an update on the "Preemptive Break Out Idea for DirecTV"
PREVIOUSLY
The main concept was to enter long DTV when price was cheap at $84.00, trusting that support buying will come in and push prices higher, leading to an eventual Rectangle Pattern breakout.
Three Scenarios, labelled A, B and C were projected.
Worst case scenario C, where price trades lower below $82.00 was already ruled out in the previous update.
Also step 2 of the Trading Plan (take 50% partial profit) should have been executed by now.
CURRENTLY
We note that price has gently inched past Resistance level of $88.50 with no signs of sharp selling.
Hence we can ruled out Scenario B, leaving Scenario A as the most likely scenario.
PREEMPTIVE TRADING PLAN
Current price levels are now ripe to execute Step 3 of the Scenario A Trading Plan:
Step 1 (Executed): Enter long when price can trade and sustain above $84.00, Stop Loss below $82.00
Step 2 (Executed): Next step will be to take 50% partial profit, when price trades around $87.00, and place your stop loss to breakeven level. This also means you are very unlikely to lose on this trade at this stage.
Step 3 (Execute Now): Wait for price to Break Out above $88.50 and go back long the 50% long position that was closed in Step 2.
With 50% position entered at $84.00 in Step 1, combined with 50% position added above $88.50 in Step 2, you will have effectively built a long Break Out position with a net average price of $86.50. Also the $87.50 Support level will act as "protective shield" against retracements after the bullish breakout. This due to the tendency for previous Resistance levels to become Support levels once broken)
Step 4 (At your Discretion): Shift Stop Loss to Breakeven Level and take profit as price trades towards $95.00.
A simple measurement of Profit Target places the objective to around $95.00, which incidentally is AT&T's offer price to takeover DirecTV.
SIMPLE BREAKOUT TRADING PLAN
For those who currently have no position in DTV can also trade the breakout move above $88.50.
Entry: When Price has a high probability of closing 03 March 2015 above $88.50.
Personally, this means waiting until 10 minutes before market close to see if price is still trading above $88.50 and enter long if that is true.
Stop Loss: Below $86.00
Take Profit: Around $95.00
RISK
There will always be a risk of a false breakout.
Also there maybe also other ways price can move not covered by the scope of Scenario .
REFERENCES
Rectangle Chart Pattern>http://www.babypips.com/school/middle-school/important-chart-patterns/rectangles.html
Like it, Share it, Follow it~
Trading View: BreakOutArtist
StockTwits: stocktwits.com/BreakOutArtist
Twitter: twitter.com/BrkOutArtist
Here is an update on the "Preemptive Break Out Idea for DirecTV"
PREVIOUSLY
The main concept was to enter long DTV when price was cheap at $84.00, trusting that support buying will come in and push prices higher, leading to an eventual Rectangle Pattern breakout.
Three Scenarios, labelled A, B and C were projected.
Worst case scenario C, where price trades lower below $82.00 was already ruled out in the previous update.
Also step 2 of the Trading Plan (take 50% partial profit) should have been executed by now.
CURRENTLY
We note that price has gently inched past Resistance level of $88.50 with no signs of sharp selling.
Hence we can ruled out Scenario B, leaving Scenario A as the most likely scenario.
PREEMPTIVE TRADING PLAN
Current price levels are now ripe to execute Step 3 of the Scenario A Trading Plan:
Step 1 (Executed): Enter long when price can trade and sustain above $84.00, Stop Loss below $82.00
Step 2 (Executed): Next step will be to take 50% partial profit, when price trades around $87.00, and place your stop loss to breakeven level. This also means you are very unlikely to lose on this trade at this stage.
Step 3 (Execute Now): Wait for price to Break Out above $88.50 and go back long the 50% long position that was closed in Step 2.
With 50% position entered at $84.00 in Step 1, combined with 50% position added above $88.50 in Step 2, you will have effectively built a long Break Out position with a net average price of $86.50. Also the $87.50 Support level will act as "protective shield" against retracements after the bullish breakout. This due to the tendency for previous Resistance levels to become Support levels once broken)
Step 4 (At your Discretion): Shift Stop Loss to Breakeven Level and take profit as price trades towards $95.00.
A simple measurement of Profit Target places the objective to around $95.00, which incidentally is AT&T's offer price to takeover DirecTV.
SIMPLE BREAKOUT TRADING PLAN
For those who currently have no position in DTV can also trade the breakout move above $88.50.
Entry: When Price has a high probability of closing 03 March 2015 above $88.50.
Personally, this means waiting until 10 minutes before market close to see if price is still trading above $88.50 and enter long if that is true.
Stop Loss: Below $86.00
Take Profit: Around $95.00
RISK
There will always be a risk of a false breakout.
Also there maybe also other ways price can move not covered by the scope of Scenario .
REFERENCES
Rectangle Chart Pattern>http://www.babypips.com/school/middle-school/important-chart-patterns/rectangles.html
Like it, Share it, Follow it~
Trading View: BreakOutArtist
StockTwits: stocktwits.com/BreakOutArtist
Twitter: twitter.com/BrkOutArtist
19 hours ago
3
121
Well well.
If we dont short this, Technical Analysis becomes obsolete.
of course, it can remain in the area and mark marginal tops above 5000 but overall in the next 8 weeks, there is a window of opportunity for a short that could be a nice one.
If we dont short this, Technical Analysis becomes obsolete.
of course, it can remain in the area and mark marginal tops above 5000 but overall in the next 8 weeks, there is a window of opportunity for a short that could be a nice one.
20 hours ago
5
89
As pair broke our key resistance level at 1.4404, I'd expect further extensions up, toward at least nearest resistance at 1.45 area. At some point afterwards EURAUD should potentially hit the target at 1.4260 or lower.
30 minutes ago
1
53
All informations on the chart.
Just factual for the record.
Just factual for the record.
1 day ago
4
186
I'll let the chart speak for itself!
5 hours ago
0
173
AUD/USD has formed bullish BAT pattern in one hour chart so jump till 0.7915 cannot be ruled out. The RBA surprised the markets by keeping rates on hold at 2.25%. The central bank noted that “having eased monetary policy at the previous meeting, it was appropriate to hold the rates for the time being”. It also mentioned that further rate cut will be there over the period ahead.
AUD/USD has recovered till 0.7835 after the RBA monetary policy. On the upside major resistance is 0.7850 and any break above will target 0.7905-0.7915 in short term.
The pair’s minor support is around 0.7800 and any break below will take the pair till 0.7730/0.7695.
Indicators (1 hour chart)
CCI (50) – Buy
CCI (14) – Buy
Ichimoku- Buy
Recommendation: Buy AUD/USD around 0.7820, SL 0.7780, Targets 0.7875/0.7910.
AUD/USD has recovered till 0.7835 after the RBA monetary policy. On the upside major resistance is 0.7850 and any break above will target 0.7905-0.7915 in short term.
The pair’s minor support is around 0.7800 and any break below will take the pair till 0.7730/0.7695.
Indicators (1 hour chart)
CCI (50) – Buy
CCI (14) – Buy
Ichimoku- Buy
Recommendation: Buy AUD/USD around 0.7820, SL 0.7780, Targets 0.7875/0.7910.
8 days ago
73
6429
In my last published chart I suggested that it was in final down leg of this bearish cycle.
Well, as you all know that low was anticipated to form around 240-220 to complete falling wedge. However the price sliced through that to 150 zone.
In falling wedge last leg could overshoot due to the fact that wedge is narrowing. But in this case it seems that the breach or overshoot is too significant and disproportional to rest of the pattern.
Additionally, the bounce from 150 - 300 in not in clear 5 waves, rather it is in 3 swing zigzag.
Hence, it called for a review and I conclude that the wave 3 has extended as is often the case with wave 3.
Therefore whilst not changing the analysis completely, I have adjust the counts to incorporate the plunge to 150 and feel that it was a wave 3 low. The current price action since is part of wave 4 retracement, which appears have 1st zigzag to upside to 300 and that is being retrace. Incompletion of which the second leg of the zigzag is due that might form possible double top around 300 -320 area.
[I have been sharing this provisional revision in the Bitcoin chat for sometime (see snapshot below) but was reluctant to publish it for the sake of it. Some clarity would help top publish meaningful update. Now though it seems].
Once this complete we will most likely see another decline from approx 300 -320 area and possibly drop to 100-80 zone.
Assuming that the move from Jan 2014 high is part of larger wave C of Ending Diagonal (falling wedge) of 3-3-3-3-3 construction.
This is probably the best outcome for BTCUSD to form a major low around 100-80. In fact the worry is that that might not be the final low from which another Bullish Cycle could develop to retest all time high. The reason is that on log scale the price has dropped below the long term rising trendline support and it seems at present that to regain that, it will be a difficult task. In which case we have very long side way correction between Nov 2013 high and 100-80 that could last for another year or more before the Final Low could be in place.
I say that because our larger counts from early history has been on assumption which gave us reason to label Nov 2013 high as Wave 3 but in realty it could be wave 5 top. However we will just keep that in the back of our mind for now as we track our adjusted road map to expected low in the region of 100- 80.
I could host a live session next week to explain all this. If you are interested in this please indicate it by your moments and ensure you have tagged this chart for announcement of the scheduled and to obtain a link to join me.
As always, do your own analysis for your trade requirement.
Select to follow me and the chart for notification of future updates. If you like the analysis then please indicate this by thumbs up, comments and sharing it with others. If you have an alternative idea then please share for all to learn from.
Thank you for taking the time to read my analysis.
DanV
danv-charting.com
Well, as you all know that low was anticipated to form around 240-220 to complete falling wedge. However the price sliced through that to 150 zone.
In falling wedge last leg could overshoot due to the fact that wedge is narrowing. But in this case it seems that the breach or overshoot is too significant and disproportional to rest of the pattern.
Additionally, the bounce from 150 - 300 in not in clear 5 waves, rather it is in 3 swing zigzag.
Hence, it called for a review and I conclude that the wave 3 has extended as is often the case with wave 3.
Therefore whilst not changing the analysis completely, I have adjust the counts to incorporate the plunge to 150 and feel that it was a wave 3 low. The current price action since is part of wave 4 retracement, which appears have 1st zigzag to upside to 300 and that is being retrace. Incompletion of which the second leg of the zigzag is due that might form possible double top around 300 -320 area.
[I have been sharing this provisional revision in the Bitcoin chat for sometime (see snapshot below) but was reluctant to publish it for the sake of it. Some clarity would help top publish meaningful update. Now though it seems].
Once this complete we will most likely see another decline from approx 300 -320 area and possibly drop to 100-80 zone.
Assuming that the move from Jan 2014 high is part of larger wave C of Ending Diagonal (falling wedge) of 3-3-3-3-3 construction.
This is probably the best outcome for BTCUSD to form a major low around 100-80. In fact the worry is that that might not be the final low from which another Bullish Cycle could develop to retest all time high. The reason is that on log scale the price has dropped below the long term rising trendline support and it seems at present that to regain that, it will be a difficult task. In which case we have very long side way correction between Nov 2013 high and 100-80 that could last for another year or more before the Final Low could be in place.
I say that because our larger counts from early history has been on assumption which gave us reason to label Nov 2013 high as Wave 3 but in realty it could be wave 5 top. However we will just keep that in the back of our mind for now as we track our adjusted road map to expected low in the region of 100- 80.
I could host a live session next week to explain all this. If you are interested in this please indicate it by your moments and ensure you have tagged this chart for announcement of the scheduled and to obtain a link to join me.
As always, do your own analysis for your trade requirement.
Select to follow me and the chart for notification of future updates. If you like the analysis then please indicate this by thumbs up, comments and sharing it with others. If you have an alternative idea then please share for all to learn from.
Thank you for taking the time to read my analysis.
DanV
danv-charting.com
