()

Have been preparing my traders
for a breakout. Scaled into a long position
over the past couple of days, and did my final
adds on the news that the first Bitcoin ETF is
approved. This is a nice catalyst to combine
with the technical pattern we've been watching.

Depending on how the market will continue the reaction of Friday's news events, we might see the completion of this bullish cypher pattern or not.
Personally I will not enter with a limit order as there is no structure at the pattern completion, there is however some 10 pips lower (orange dotted line). If price reaches this point I will look for confirmation for a reversal as this increases our Risk/Reward ratio.

Let me know if you have any questions

DO NOT OVER TRADE. People assume the best traders are the most active ones, and that we sit around all day staring at hundreds of charts. It's simply not true, but people love to over-complicate things. Pick a few reliable indicators, fine tune them to your liking, and follow the signals. Ignore the herd sentiment, the "fundamental" news developments, and all the noise. Trade what you see. Only price pays.

Technical View:

GBP/USD has broken out of a 6 month descending channel on the weekly chart to the upside. The initial bullish surge occurred at the key psychological level of 1.5 forming a triple bottom formation.

This suggests that the bearish pressure is diminishing and that we may see an established bullish reversal. A retest of the backside of the channel and 1.52 as new support will be confirmation of a change in sentiment.

Fundamental Picture:

1. Expectations for a timely Fed Rate-Hike are diminishing on dovish Yellen.

2, Expectations remain strong for a U.K Rate Hike

3. Governor Mark Carney retains Hawkish Tone

4. UK GDP within expectations for Q4 at 0.5%

5. U.S. GDP expanded by 2.2% in the fourth quarter of 2014, below initial estimates for a growth rate of 2.6% but above expectations for 2.1%.

Contact us:

www.infinite-prosperity.com/activetrader

Less is more ... We have 2 potential bats setting up here on the hourly chart. We'll check if one will complete and which one it will be ... but we are prepared for both directions :)

In general, I am expecting a continuation of GBP strength the coming week, drawing support from steady economic growth with the revised GDP coming out as expected and recent labour market data coming our positive. The Japanese Yen on the other hand is under pressure with the BoJ revising their growth forecast lower and most of the recent Japanese data disappointing the markets. This pair has been on a strong bullish run since the beginning of February, gaining 900 pips and it currently sits around the 618 retracement of the swing low that started December last year, creating a zone of resistance. The recent uptrend is starting to lose momentum with price action on the daily trading sideways for the last few days and failing to print a higher high on the 4H after the last outside return, showing a clear bearish divergence condition on the RSI.

Could it be a top has been formed, at least for now? Its possible, because we may have a double top pattern developing on the 4H timeframe. It is not certain the pattern will complete, but I put this trade candidate on my watch list just in case. We have plenty of Japanese and UK data coming out on Monday that will give an impulse to this pair. I am describing the most conservative play here (known as the 2618 trade), with the most conformation possible. The scenario is depended on a number of steps happening before entering the trade and as such its a true “if… then… scenario”. A double top is a double top if the wick of the second meets at least the candle close of the first, while the candle close of the second does not exceed the wick of the first. In other words, PA tried to make a higher high, but failed. This retest of resistance with less strength also follows from the regular bearish RSI divergence at the second top.

We need the following steps to occur before entering a trade: (1) price breaks below and closes below the neckline, (2) price retraces back up, until 618 retracement of the prior leg down and (3) price stalls, stops and reverses at this retracement level. In that case, SL goes above the highest high of the tops. TP1 = structure level where the retracement started, TP2 = 1272 extension of prior leg down. In terms of trade management, when TP1 is hit I would take profit on 1 position and roll my stop loss to breakeven, enjoying a risk free trade hunting for TP2.

There are 200 pips to be made (if this pair follows all the steps in the script) and the trade has a reward – risk ratio of 2.2!

Heavy fall AUDUSD has not started yet.
The next few weeks. AUDUSD will be growth.
The first target 0.72. And the final target in 2015 would be 0.62 level

Hey People,

we just saw another Huge Short going on in the EU Pair.

Now we approaching former Support Zone again.
I did the combo of DXY and EU now.

What we do see on the DXY is a Wedge sitting at its top trendline now.
According to Fibonacci Extension of last prior move, we could see a little more Upside and then back to the lows, wheren we can buy DOLLAR again and sell EURO.

THIS comes perfectly with my E/U Chart, because a little more upside for the Dollar would mean E/U to drop to the buyzone at former Support zone.

SO 2 ways to play this.
Buy E/U NOW and set SL below the former lows, OR wait for price to come to your Buyzone and enter then.
Targets at 1.13000 and 1.15000 depending on DXY. Check where it sits when you close the Profits.

Rest should be obvious according to the Charts :)

Questions, Suggestions and Ideas WELCOME :)

Have Fun!

I believe the first impulse wave of the zigzag has completed. I'm expecting a correction back to (iv) then another impulse wave up to 320 to complete wave a of 5

This is a revised version of the chart I published a few days ago. Scroll over to look at the similarities to last May. Short term I think we could retrace to bounce another time off the linear-scale downtrend line (resistance-turned support) at around $235 on March 4-5. Second bounce might not happen though. Then a few weeks of consolidation followed by a break up to test the log-scale downtrend line at about $310-320 sometime at the end of the month.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/wDcdlWwV/

Target after bounce, shown on log chart. Should break up to test downtrend line, which will coincide with the peak at 305-310
https://www.tradingview.com/x/VSVOc4Q2/

A cypher pattern is forming on AUDUSD with a Fibonacci cluster at a previous minor support level.
The Risk/Reward ratio is not terrible with a 1.25/1 and a 2/1 for targets 1 & 2 respectively.
However, if we can manage to find an entry reason based on structure to ride down to the pattern completion (eg. break below & retest the 0.7780's) we can make much more out of this potential pattern.

See if it fits your trading plan and may the pips be with you.

This is an update of previous post.
Im still long, looking a H4 chart we see a series of HH,HL sequence.
There is an inverse HS pattern also, wich suggest a change trend.
Good luck.

Normally I rarely trade any butterfly patterns, but as this one should complete around previous structure I might give it a try. Stop loss is a bit tricky in this case as we have to go and check for previous structure. The risk reward ratio is not great, all depending on how you enter the trade. If for example a double bottom would form at pattern completion, we can place the stop loss a lot close to our entry, completely changing the Risk/Reward ration to our benefit.

Please refer to the description in the analysis for information on this setup. Feel free to comment below for any questions or suggestions regarding my analysis.

Thanks
MaiTrader

Here is a favorite trade of mine I thought I'd share.

1. We are looking for the 50-SMA to indicate a downtrend (Angle is going down)

2. I am looking for price to break above the 50-SMA and several candles to close above making an ARC.

3. Then I want to find the high of that move which I use a Bearish Candlestick pattern:
Doji, Pin-Bar, Bearish Engulfing, etc.

4. I use the RSI as a momentum/overbought indicator. Looking for it to be oversold and making
lower highs. It doesn't have to show lower highs, may just head down. As long as it's in an area
showing overbought, that's good enough.

Buy @ close of next candlestick, which should close below the previous bearish one.

Stop loss is just above the peak candlestick.

Target #1 is 50-SMA

Target #2 is bottom of Bollinger Band

Double bottom potential, at 2000 61.8% retracement.
RSI slight bullish divergence.
Range boxes.
Stochastics turning up.
Falling Wedge like formation.

Weekly Timeframe: Last week saw active selling come into the market from just below weekly supply at 1.1678-1.1458. This consequently saw the Euro print a full-bodied bearish candle stretching almost 200 pips from open (1.1388) to close (1.1189). Assuming that the sellers can continue with this tempo, we see very little reason why price cannot retest the weekly Quasimodo support level this week at 1.1109.

Daily Timeframe: The daily timeframe shows that the majority of selling was seen on Thursday (news related), which consequently took out a small daily demand area at 1.1260-1.1318. This move is significant in our opinion, owing to the fact that this daily demand held the market higher since the 4th march! With this zone out of the way, the path south is very likely free this week for price to challenge the daily demand area coming in at 1.1045-1.1127 (encapsulates the aforementioned weekly Quasimodo support level).

4hr Timeframe: For anyone who read our last report on the Euro, you may recall us mentioning that if price were to close above the 1.1200 mark, we’d then begin looking for price to retest this level as support and rally up to 4hr supply at 1.1262-1.1240, which as you can see, did happen. Unfortunately though, we were unable to find an entry long here to take advantage of this move, well done to anyone who did!

The Euro ended the week closing below and retesting the 1.1200 level as resistance. Providing that the sellers can hold out below 1.1200 today, our team will ultimately be in ‘short mode’. With lower timeframe confirmation, we’ll happily short down to the mid-level number 1.1150 marked in yellow, which will be our first take-profit target. In the event that price continues lower, our second and final take-profit target will be set just above the weekly Quasimodo support level seen in pink at 1.1109.

Some of you are probably thinking that it may not be wise to consider shorting the market when price is so near to a weekly support. You could very well be right. Nevertheless, what gives us confidence here is that price took out a relatively supportive daily demand area coming in at 1.1260-1.1318 (see above), which, to us, shows that most of the buying pressure is likely consumed and price may sell off.

Current buy/sell orders:

• Buy orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).

• Sell orders: currently watching for lower timeframe price confirmation around 1.1200 (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: dependent on where one confirms this level).

I actually made this a while ago when I created Bitcoin Truevalue and haven't adjusted the current curve at all.

Basically, all the trading ranges can fit nicely into these curves and rarely escape out of them. I tried curving out the rest of the bull-run in years past but they didn't really fit the curves. I'm thinking it's a result of matured trading instead of just investing.

So I totally expect another touch of the top of the curve very soon, followed by a nice slow downtrend to continue the bear-run. Then we'll stop out at about $200 and then fly out of the bear resistance due to some good news I guess. Lower would be a nice bet but I wouldn't short after $200 and I guessing a lot of other smart traders wouldn't either. I'm betting the next moon won't be much at about $800 (not illustrated).