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Launch Chart
1 day ago
41
2413
1. As a novice trader, one of the biggest mistakes you can make, especially after having had a number of successful trades, is thinking you know what you are doing when you actually don´t. This will be the cause of every trading error you have the potential to make.
2. It takes absolutely no skill at all to place a winning trade. It does to consistently do it.
3. Be unoriginal. Save the innovative strategies and custom indicators for when you have learned how to trade.
4. Do not judge a trade on its result. A good trade can turn out a loser. A bad trade can turn out a winner.
5. Don’t focus too much on making money in the beginning. As you are still improving, it should not be your goal to make money. It should be your goal to make good trades.
6. In trading, there is no supervisor or manager reviewing every decision before it’s made. Success, for better or worse, is totally self-dependent. This is not for everybody. Find out if it’s for you.
7. Though this site has many of its members emphasizing on technical analysis, don’t underestimate the impact of fundamentals on price action. Understanding them will increase your edge in trading.
8. Don’t overemphasize the importance of finding the best trading system. Equally important are psychology and money management.
9. Online chat rooms can be good learning tools and from time to time very entertaining, but beware of entering trades that are not part of your trading plan or trade setups that you have not studied for yourself.
10. Eliminate your mistakes. Do this on a daily basis, mistake per mistake. Eventually you will run out of mistakes to make.
2. It takes absolutely no skill at all to place a winning trade. It does to consistently do it.
3. Be unoriginal. Save the innovative strategies and custom indicators for when you have learned how to trade.
4. Do not judge a trade on its result. A good trade can turn out a loser. A bad trade can turn out a winner.
5. Don’t focus too much on making money in the beginning. As you are still improving, it should not be your goal to make money. It should be your goal to make good trades.
6. In trading, there is no supervisor or manager reviewing every decision before it’s made. Success, for better or worse, is totally self-dependent. This is not for everybody. Find out if it’s for you.
7. Though this site has many of its members emphasizing on technical analysis, don’t underestimate the impact of fundamentals on price action. Understanding them will increase your edge in trading.
8. Don’t overemphasize the importance of finding the best trading system. Equally important are psychology and money management.
9. Online chat rooms can be good learning tools and from time to time very entertaining, but beware of entering trades that are not part of your trading plan or trade setups that you have not studied for yourself.
10. Eliminate your mistakes. Do this on a daily basis, mistake per mistake. Eventually you will run out of mistakes to make.
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13 hours ago
19
627
It's been a very slow week for me, but luckily Jason is picking up the slack. Going into Friday's Job Report I have no intention of entering any new positions aside from this potential bullish bat pattern on the Kiwi. NZDUSD is in a very interesting position as our HTF trend has bounced off previous structure resistance, yet our LTF trend has recently created a NSH and is retesting previous structure support. Consolidation perhaps?? Hope so since that would work well for pattern traders. VERY IMPORTANT. IF this trade does not trigger before tomorrow mornings top-down analysis THEN I will remove all orders as I want no parts of the crap shoot that is the Non-farm Payroll report.
As always it's Thursday so that also means the release of my weekly WEEKEND REVIEW video. (link at bottom)) In this week's video "Dollars Don't Matter" I talk about this NZDUSD trade, how we can help each other out in the initial phases of backtesting an updated version of an inside bar breakout strategy that i used to trade, and of course an update of how Jason and i have down int he Syndicate. here's a clue...I haven't done much lol
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UvH5rMqPKuo&list=UUVveEks3MWZqOsvzTF_LGQg
Lastly make sure you clear your schedules for early April ;-)
As always it's Thursday so that also means the release of my weekly WEEKEND REVIEW video. (link at bottom)) In this week's video "Dollars Don't Matter" I talk about this NZDUSD trade, how we can help each other out in the initial phases of backtesting an updated version of an inside bar breakout strategy that i used to trade, and of course an update of how Jason and i have down int he Syndicate. here's a clue...I haven't done much lol
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UvH5rMqPKuo&list=UUVveEks3MWZqOsvzTF_LGQg
Lastly make sure you clear your schedules for early April ;-)
6 hours ago
22
328
A bullish bat pattern has completed on this pair and a .382 retracement would take us right back to the previous support shelf that has been proven strong and that should now become resistance. Hence I don't think that we can get more out of this than a retest of that level.
As it is a bat pattern, RR is good, stops below 1.5189, I would even suggest a 1 ATR stop @ 1.5170 as we are trading a pattern on the 240 chart.
Good luck and may the pips be with you.
As it is a bat pattern, RR is good, stops below 1.5189, I would even suggest a 1 ATR stop @ 1.5170 as we are trading a pattern on the 240 chart.
Good luck and may the pips be with you.
18 hours ago
4
452
AUD/JPY has been in a dominant bearish trend since December 2014, continuing to print lower swing highs and lower swing lows.
We now have an excellent opportunity to trade with momentum on our side as 6 confluence factors join together to create the perfect storm.
Confluence Factors:
1. Trading With Dominant Bearish Trend
2. Rejection of Key 94.00 S/R level
3. Rejection of 50% Fibonacci Retracement
4. Price remains contained under 50 EMA
5. Rising Wedge - Bearish Continuation Pattern
6. Rejection of KEY Weekly Trend Line
We now have an excellent opportunity to trade with momentum on our side as 6 confluence factors join together to create the perfect storm.
Confluence Factors:
1. Trading With Dominant Bearish Trend
2. Rejection of Key 94.00 S/R level
3. Rejection of 50% Fibonacci Retracement
4. Price remains contained under 50 EMA
5. Rising Wedge - Bearish Continuation Pattern
6. Rejection of KEY Weekly Trend Line
19 hours ago
6
426
If TA was easy, there should be a no brainier trade in the next 72 hours to Buy all the Bitcoin you can off the support bounce. Now that we have established "stability" (relatively speaking of course) above the 50 day SMA we are pulling back to it as it turns its own trend from down to up. In addition there is horizontal support in the $255 area from the daily chart and Fibonacci's on the 2hr chart.
Bitcoin is the most unpredictable asset in the world (other than Central Banks Dropping Pegs that should never have been in place), but there is a very low risk (longer-term) trade coming up:
1. Buy off the $250-260 Bounce
2. Add to your trade on a break of $300 for a final target of $330 and/or 200 day SMA
2a. Take some profits at $300 and then add at $280 or on a break of $300
Good luck traders
Most updates come via Twitter: @Tone_LLT
Bitcoin is the most unpredictable asset in the world (other than Central Banks Dropping Pegs that should never have been in place), but there is a very low risk (longer-term) trade coming up:
1. Buy off the $250-260 Bounce
2. Add to your trade on a break of $300 for a final target of $330 and/or 200 day SMA
2a. Take some profits at $300 and then add at $280 or on a break of $300
Good luck traders
Most updates come via Twitter: @Tone_LLT
12 hours ago
9
292
Weekly Timeframe: The weekly timeframe shows that price has broken below a major weekly Quasimodo support level at 1.1109, and, as a consequence hit weekly demand coming in at 1.0760-1.0988.
Daily Timeframe: Yesterday saw the Euro take out daily demand at 1.1045-1.1127. This consequently drove the market south into a daily swap area seen below at 1.1016-1.0952 (located just within the weekly demand area mentioned above at 1.0760-1.0988).
4hr Timeframe: The latest coming in from the 4hr timeframe reveals that price closed below the mid-level number 1.1050, which, subsequently, saw price viciously spike north up to a 4hr decision-point supply area seen at 1.1114-1.1143 (this move was likely a result of negative unemployment numbers coming out of the US). Following this, price continued south down to the 1.1000 psychological threshold, where, at the time of writing, supportive pressure is currently being seen.
With all of the above taken into account, we feel that the Euro is trading in oversold territory at the moment and could be ready for a bounce higher. Nevertheless, before this happens, we feel there’s a good chance that price will challenge the 1.1000 level once more, although this time we expect a push deeper to be seen, thus taking out more stops i.e. sell stops (liquidity) for pro money to buy into.
With that said, our team’s main focus in this market today will be to watch how price behaves if a retest of 1.1000 is seen. However, please do keep in mind that we have the mighty NFP release later on, which, as you probably know, could distort any technical signal seen, so do trade cautiously.
Current buy/sell orders:
• Buy orders: 1.1000 (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: dependent on where one confirms this level).
• Sell orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).
Daily Timeframe: Yesterday saw the Euro take out daily demand at 1.1045-1.1127. This consequently drove the market south into a daily swap area seen below at 1.1016-1.0952 (located just within the weekly demand area mentioned above at 1.0760-1.0988).
4hr Timeframe: The latest coming in from the 4hr timeframe reveals that price closed below the mid-level number 1.1050, which, subsequently, saw price viciously spike north up to a 4hr decision-point supply area seen at 1.1114-1.1143 (this move was likely a result of negative unemployment numbers coming out of the US). Following this, price continued south down to the 1.1000 psychological threshold, where, at the time of writing, supportive pressure is currently being seen.
With all of the above taken into account, we feel that the Euro is trading in oversold territory at the moment and could be ready for a bounce higher. Nevertheless, before this happens, we feel there’s a good chance that price will challenge the 1.1000 level once more, although this time we expect a push deeper to be seen, thus taking out more stops i.e. sell stops (liquidity) for pro money to buy into.
With that said, our team’s main focus in this market today will be to watch how price behaves if a retest of 1.1000 is seen. However, please do keep in mind that we have the mighty NFP release later on, which, as you probably know, could distort any technical signal seen, so do trade cautiously.
Current buy/sell orders:
• Buy orders: 1.1000 (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: dependent on where one confirms this level).
• Sell orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).
1 day ago
5
791
05 MAR 2015 - Tech-Note:
Friends,
A quick explanation of what TG-Hi, Lo and TG-Hix and TG-Lox are - Cut/pasted from a private message:
WHAT ARE TG-Hi/Lo; HOW DO THEY COMPARE TO TG-Hix/Lox?
----------------------------------
TG-Hi and TG-Lo are are named target, as opposed to numbered target, hence called nominal target.
Nominal targets represent a low-probability level of being attained, but a high-probability level of reversal if and once price gets there.
Hi refers to the bullish placement relative to price, whereas Lo is its antipod, bearish placement.
Because the markets will be subjected to a varying degree of momentum, the model also ascribes a much lower, and in fact, rarer occurrence, whereby price would reach an extreme reversible level, which explains the "x" in the targets, or TG-Hix and TG-Lox.
All TG-Lo/Hi targets will be in RED, whereas their extremes will be in PURPLE.
Most recently, I have added numbers in BLUE which represent trigger level that, if reached, should prompt the trader to turn to a higher timeframe, in the order of 4 times the current frame (e.g.: M15 x 4 = H1, H1 x 4 = H4, ... etc) as attainment of this level is simple the rarest of events, and suggests a higher-frame interference by typically better funded players, stronger institutions - This augmentation in timeframe should be done even once the purple target is in effect and the technical analysis should be redrawn or at least re-considered at the newer, higher frame, simply to preempt any cooptation by stronger actors - I will post this explanation on few other charts as well - Thank you for asking and remaining curious. - David Alcindor
----------------------------------
... cont'd in thread ...
----------------------------------
David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Denver, Colorado - USA
-----
Twitter:
@4xForecaster
LinkedIn:
David Alcindor
See our All-Time TradingView Top Authors:
- https://www.tradingview.com/people/all/
------
.
Friends,
A quick explanation of what TG-Hi, Lo and TG-Hix and TG-Lox are - Cut/pasted from a private message:
WHAT ARE TG-Hi/Lo; HOW DO THEY COMPARE TO TG-Hix/Lox?
----------------------------------
TG-Hi and TG-Lo are are named target, as opposed to numbered target, hence called nominal target.
Nominal targets represent a low-probability level of being attained, but a high-probability level of reversal if and once price gets there.
Hi refers to the bullish placement relative to price, whereas Lo is its antipod, bearish placement.
Because the markets will be subjected to a varying degree of momentum, the model also ascribes a much lower, and in fact, rarer occurrence, whereby price would reach an extreme reversible level, which explains the "x" in the targets, or TG-Hix and TG-Lox.
All TG-Lo/Hi targets will be in RED, whereas their extremes will be in PURPLE.
Most recently, I have added numbers in BLUE which represent trigger level that, if reached, should prompt the trader to turn to a higher timeframe, in the order of 4 times the current frame (e.g.: M15 x 4 = H1, H1 x 4 = H4, ... etc) as attainment of this level is simple the rarest of events, and suggests a higher-frame interference by typically better funded players, stronger institutions - This augmentation in timeframe should be done even once the purple target is in effect and the technical analysis should be redrawn or at least re-considered at the newer, higher frame, simply to preempt any cooptation by stronger actors - I will post this explanation on few other charts as well - Thank you for asking and remaining curious. - David Alcindor
----------------------------------
... cont'd in thread ...
----------------------------------
David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Denver, Colorado - USA
-----
Twitter:
@4xForecaster
LinkedIn:
David Alcindor
See our All-Time TradingView Top Authors:
- https://www.tradingview.com/people/all/
------
.
11 hours ago
3
156
Watch-out España traders, the IBEX is challenging the major key long term sideways resistance or ceiling. Typically, in sideways markets, we expect price to reverse to the downside. However, this time might be different, as the price test the level for sixth time. The latest test(March 2) was followed by a minor pullback and a bullish pin bar.
I would think twice before going short at that resistance for now. why? For the first time , the ECB is pumping money for free with its new asset purchase program. History and the FED have taught us what happens to equities when central banks go full throttle.
We might see a reactive correction but i advise waiting for a candlestick confirmation for such scenario and look only for limited downside potential.
A breakout above 11235 resistance with at least a weekly closing would confirm the bullish breakout. I wont suggest targets for this scenario as this idea is just a general opinion...
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Be one of the first members of my new trading portal, check my new website http://thefxchannel.com/ , vote and subscribe. Thank you
Good luck, keep your stops tight..
https://twitter.com/thefxchannel
https://www.facebook.com/thefxchannel
https://plus.google.com/+Thefxchannel0
My best regards
Technician
I would think twice before going short at that resistance for now. why? For the first time , the ECB is pumping money for free with its new asset purchase program. History and the FED have taught us what happens to equities when central banks go full throttle.
We might see a reactive correction but i advise waiting for a candlestick confirmation for such scenario and look only for limited downside potential.
A breakout above 11235 resistance with at least a weekly closing would confirm the bullish breakout. I wont suggest targets for this scenario as this idea is just a general opinion...
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Be one of the first members of my new trading portal, check my new website http://thefxchannel.com/ , vote and subscribe. Thank you
Good luck, keep your stops tight..
https://twitter.com/thefxchannel
https://www.facebook.com/thefxchannel
https://plus.google.com/+Thefxchannel0
My best regards
Technician
1 day ago
22
1601
Multiple potential advanced patterns setting up on the USDJPY all around the same area. We've yet to break out of this consolidation, but if we do before Friday's Jobs number, we have a good location to look for our next short.
Before I get a million nasty messages no, I don't think dollar weakness and Yen strength long term, but that's what makes me a "Trader" and not an "investor" I don't have a long term bias when trading on shorter term charts. I take the setups as they come bullish or bearish despite my personal fundamental outlook.
Before I get a million nasty messages no, I don't think dollar weakness and Yen strength long term, but that's what makes me a "Trader" and not an "investor" I don't have a long term bias when trading on shorter term charts. I take the setups as they come bullish or bearish despite my personal fundamental outlook.
13 hours ago
2
83
I'll mark myself down as long more as a technicality then a true conviction. In my opinion the charting suggest this is bullish, but I like to interpret our break through the multi-decade wedge resistance as a critical point (yet to indicate a particular direction). Despite every suit on CNBC calling the fall of the dollar, I would argue on a historical basis were at a relatively low point (especially if you were to consider the dollar index in gold denominated terms, go chart "dxy/gc1!"). Given these circumstances and an apparently bullish break, Regan and Bush dollar values don't seem too far away.Perhaps mullets will have their comeback too. Ive outlined a smaller falling wedge to give some context as to timing, which would confirm a successful third attempt to break resistance as a catalyst for a rally.
I expect us to continue beyond this point into the high 90's before consolidating, and perhaps retesting the old resistance. Should the old resistance hold as support I would comfortably by into your favorite Dollar ETF. Should it re-enter the wedge pattern I would expect a rather quick fall to mid 80's, hammering out a bottom and completing a second leg of a wave theory retracement.
Nominal measured move of $78 takes us to $170, percentage measured move of 48% takes us to $140. First pit stop is at $118, the most recent high in 2001 and would definitely be my limit sell if it managed to get there. Let's see which way it goes and consider it's affect on gold and exporter stocks.
~ Cheers
I expect us to continue beyond this point into the high 90's before consolidating, and perhaps retesting the old resistance. Should the old resistance hold as support I would comfortably by into your favorite Dollar ETF. Should it re-enter the wedge pattern I would expect a rather quick fall to mid 80's, hammering out a bottom and completing a second leg of a wave theory retracement.
Nominal measured move of $78 takes us to $170, percentage measured move of 48% takes us to $140. First pit stop is at $118, the most recent high in 2001 and would definitely be my limit sell if it managed to get there. Let's see which way it goes and consider it's affect on gold and exporter stocks.
~ Cheers
12 hours ago
2
189
. USDCAD should do a correction.
ROC gives us the signal. Which is currently in the overbought zone.
ROC gives us the signal. Which is currently in the overbought zone.
1 day ago
8
689
Fundamentally there are several forces at work on this pair. There is a safe-haven demand for the Yen after China’s downgrade of its growth outlook creating some selling pressure while the policy divergence between the FED and the BoJ creates buying pressure. On the daily timeframe it has been trading inside a triangle consolidation pattern since December last year. The next critical data point to be released impacting this pair will be US employment data, which may provide fresh impulses. Meanwhile, on the hourly timeframe, we can see the contours of a bearish Bat pattern developing. Price has comfortably passed the B point and travelled 70% on the way from C to the potential reversal zone (PRZ). With this, the set up qualifies as a trade candidate and it goes on my watch list.
When defining the potential reversal zone (PRZ) for a Bat pattern, we look at the projection of three harmonic levels. I: the 886 retracement of XA, II: an extended AB = CD pattern (in this case 1618 AB = CD) and III: a BC expansion (in this case 2000 BC). This defines an extremely tight zone, just 5 pips wide, represented by the orange lines in the chart. There is structure inside this zone (a 4H resistance level), which increases the edge of a reversal. Should price action test the PRZ and reverse convincingly, I would enter short. SL goes 10 pips behind X. TP1 = 382 retracement of AD and TP2 = 618 retracement of AD.
There are 50 pips to be made (if this pair follows the script) and the trade has a reward – risk ratio of 2.5!
UPDATE: Price action tested the potential reversal zone without reversing convincingly as it formed two spinning tops in the zone before a spike exceeded X. This invalidated the pattern so I did not enter the trade. Nothing was risked and nothing was lost. On to the next trade!
When defining the potential reversal zone (PRZ) for a Bat pattern, we look at the projection of three harmonic levels. I: the 886 retracement of XA, II: an extended AB = CD pattern (in this case 1618 AB = CD) and III: a BC expansion (in this case 2000 BC). This defines an extremely tight zone, just 5 pips wide, represented by the orange lines in the chart. There is structure inside this zone (a 4H resistance level), which increases the edge of a reversal. Should price action test the PRZ and reverse convincingly, I would enter short. SL goes 10 pips behind X. TP1 = 382 retracement of AD and TP2 = 618 retracement of AD.
There are 50 pips to be made (if this pair follows the script) and the trade has a reward – risk ratio of 2.5!
UPDATE: Price action tested the potential reversal zone without reversing convincingly as it formed two spinning tops in the zone before a spike exceeded X. This invalidated the pattern so I did not enter the trade. Nothing was risked and nothing was lost. On to the next trade!
16 hours ago
1
271
There is a risk for more stickiness but overall it seems 2120 is going to retain.
Between tomorrow afternoon after NFP and the 23rd of March, SP500 is probably going to make its way down to 1900.
The bottom at 1900 shall be reached before the 17th of April.
As per my dax post, the best maturity right now to target options is probably the April expiry.
The final top could be in July and then after a potential top stickiness it may find its way down into year end.
NOTE: THERE IS NO MOMENTUM UP ANYMORE - SP500 has only climbed 2% since Nov14 top.
Between tomorrow afternoon after NFP and the 23rd of March, SP500 is probably going to make its way down to 1900.
The bottom at 1900 shall be reached before the 17th of April.
As per my dax post, the best maturity right now to target options is probably the April expiry.
The final top could be in July and then after a potential top stickiness it may find its way down into year end.
NOTE: THERE IS NO MOMENTUM UP ANYMORE - SP500 has only climbed 2% since Nov14 top.
5 hours ago
10
161
Maybe a tad late on publishing this one as the pattern has already completed and we already saw some upwards price action, But ... we could see a double bottom formation here giving us another change to enter this long trade with a very good Risk/Reward ratio. Something to keep an eye on if it fits your trading rules.
If it does not go back into the Potential Reversal Zone I stay away from it as it would mess up the RR.
Comments welcome. Good luck and may the pips be with you !
If it does not go back into the Potential Reversal Zone I stay away from it as it would mess up the RR.
Comments welcome. Good luck and may the pips be with you !
20 hours ago
5
257
Daily:
- Ichimoku setup looks more bearish with Price below the Kumo, but the possible bearish Kumo break can not be valid, until Price action confirms, so until Price doesn't print a lower low. This also means that for bearish confirmation Chikou Span should break below past Kumo too. The ultimately important uptrend line still holds.
- MACD gives a buy signal
- Heikin Ashi candle today signals hesitation or possible short term bullish move again. haDelta seems to be crossing up, but it is still below zero line
4H:
- Ichimoku setup is rather neutral
- Heikin Ashi is mixed a bit but the signal can turn short term bullish
- All together a confirmed buy signal would come with a break and close above 1210 (Kumo and Kijun Sen). Chikou cross above Price and later above Kumo would give further confirmation.
Now probability for short term higher prices is increasing, but there are still a lot of open questions left (will it really happen, if yes, how high the tgt can be, etc?)
If I had to chose, I'd still buy it here rather than sell. So maybe try to buy small again and keep our eyes open!
- Ichimoku setup looks more bearish with Price below the Kumo, but the possible bearish Kumo break can not be valid, until Price action confirms, so until Price doesn't print a lower low. This also means that for bearish confirmation Chikou Span should break below past Kumo too. The ultimately important uptrend line still holds.
- MACD gives a buy signal
- Heikin Ashi candle today signals hesitation or possible short term bullish move again. haDelta seems to be crossing up, but it is still below zero line
4H:
- Ichimoku setup is rather neutral
- Heikin Ashi is mixed a bit but the signal can turn short term bullish
- All together a confirmed buy signal would come with a break and close above 1210 (Kumo and Kijun Sen). Chikou cross above Price and later above Kumo would give further confirmation.
Now probability for short term higher prices is increasing, but there are still a lot of open questions left (will it really happen, if yes, how high the tgt can be, etc?)
If I had to chose, I'd still buy it here rather than sell. So maybe try to buy small again and keep our eyes open!
4 hours ago
0
147
This is an update to the trade idea linked under Related Ideas, where I had spotted a bearish Gartley pattern on the 4H timeframe of this pair. For a further description of that trade I refer to the link.
Since then the price printed a new C point for this pattern, widening the potential reversal zone (due to the shift of the AB=CD pattern which is a key harmonic level). Price has now travelled 50% from C towards the (updated) reversal zone.
The key characteristics of the trade have not changed. There are still 134 pips to be made (if this pair follows the script) and the trade still has a reward – risk ratio of 2.0!
Since then the price printed a new C point for this pattern, widening the potential reversal zone (due to the shift of the AB=CD pattern which is a key harmonic level). Price has now travelled 50% from C towards the (updated) reversal zone.
The key characteristics of the trade have not changed. There are still 134 pips to be made (if this pair follows the script) and the trade still has a reward – risk ratio of 2.0!
5 hours ago
0
142
A further move down of this pair could bring us to the completion of a bulish bat pattern. As always, bat patterns have a pretty good RR ratio, target 1 being approx 1.5 and target 2 approx. 2.5 times the pips we risk.
As this is a setup on the 240 chart, I use a 1ATR stop loss under X.
* UPDATE : This pattern has now completed
As this is a setup on the 240 chart, I use a 1ATR stop loss under X.
* UPDATE : This pattern has now completed
