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Launch Chart
1 day ago
EURUSD, 120 Neutral
3 1523
With the highly anticipated referendum vote coming out of Greece this weekend, emotions will likely be running high on the open of trading Sunday for the EURUSD. With a highly charged event coming soon, I like to take a step back and assess what the waves are suggesting so as not to rely on other’s analysis and their opinions once the news is released.

First of all, current sentiment readings are clocking in at -1.79. This means 64% of EURUSD retail traders are currently short. SSI is a contrarian tool which suggests further gains are likely. This is because these traders are already positioned in the market so they become a future pool of buyers.

Now, looking at the Elliott Wave picture, the higher probability counts are noted in green text box on the chart. That means on June 28, prices completed red wave (c) which is an ending wave to the downside. That leaves a simple 5 wave move higher that likely breaks 1.1465. That also suggests we may be beginning red wave (iii) of that 5 wave move now. Third waves tend to be the longest and strongest and the Greek vote could provide the rocket fuel.

For those unfamiliar with EW and if you wish to see the idealized pattern at play, view this link and place the June 28 EURUSD low at the start of the blue line higher. In essence, the “you are here” dot would be starting the climb up the blue line.
http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/education/trading_tips/post_of_the_day/2015/06/23/EURUSD-Elliott-Wave-Analysis.html?cmp=SFS-70160000000Nc3HAAS

Elliott Wave analysis is probabilistic. We never know for certain what is going to happen so it is certainly possible for prices to drop hard on Sunday. I have those counts de-emphasized and listed in the red text box. De-emphasized means they are lower probability in my opinion, but still possible.

Bottom line, my bias is bullish and 1.0815 is the key level which would turn me bearish. If you missed the long entry in the 1.09-1.10 area we’ve discussed for the past couple weeks, the closer a trade can be entered near 1.0815, the better risk to reward ratio.

On Monday’s weekly US Opening Bell webinar, we’ll update the action from Sunday and eliminate counts as needed to see what the higher probability move is going forward. You are more than welcome to join with a free 14 day registration to the DailyFX Plus Live Classroom:

http://www.dailyfx.com/forex_trading_signals?cmp=SFS-70160000000Nc3HAAS

The webinar is held at 9:30a ET (New York time) and the archive will be made available afterwards at the same spot.

In closing, keep in mind prices are likely to open a significant distance away from where they close today. I don’t know if the gap would be higher or lower so there is risk of getting slipped on a stop loss or stop entry on the Sunday open. If you hold a trade over the weekend, make sure it is small so a slipped trade doesn’t eat too much of your equity.

I would be interested in hearing from other EW’ers what your preferred count is. Good luck!
22 hours ago
GBPUSD, 60 Neutral
3 512
It has been 2 weeks since we posted on the GBPUSD (“Elevated Probability of a 200 Pip Sell Off”).

The sell off cut deeper so the higher probability counts are getting shifted around. It appears there are support and wave relationships coming from multiple angles into the 1.5450-1.5550 zone. So the higher probability opportunity is to trade around that zone.

The June 18-24 sell off has many wave relationships that indicate it is impulsive. I have it labeled as wave (a). Within (a):

Wave iii traveled nearly 2.618* wave i
Wave v traveled nearly .618 * wave i-iii
Wave v terminated near the 2-4 trend channel


June 24-29 is clearly a correction of the down move.

June 29 thru today is lining up as impulsive with today’s high being wave 4 printing near the 38.2% retracement of wave 3.

The wave count shown on the chart above suggests blue wave ‘v’ comes to an end perhaps as early as next week in the zone (scenario #1). At that point, it would launch a rally towards 1.62.

A break above the upper blue trend line builds the case for a large rally.

So I’m cautiously bullish into the zone cited.

Much deeper than 1.5450 then we’ll likely step aside and wait for clarity.

Sentiment is tame at +1.16 so that doesn’t contribute to a bias.

Your higher probability count is appreciated, especially if different. I’m interested in other competing views.

Good luck!
18 hours ago
EURUSD, 60 Neutral
1 246
There mere announcement of the Greek referendum led the Euro to post one of its largest week-opening gaps on record (it was a record for EURJPY). Depending on the outcome of the vote and how it is interpreted, we could face another tumultuous open - perhaps even more severe.
2 days ago
GBPAUD, 240 Neutral
18 2656
What is an Uptrend:
Uptrend: A series of higher highs and higher lows. Each highs surpasses the previous high and each low is either above or equal to the previous low.

If you are able to spot this structure on any chart, then you can clearly say the trend is up.

The opposite is true for a downtrend.

How the trend is reversed?
A break of the structure of higher highs and higher lows is the main threat for an uptrend and could lead to a reversal from an Uptrend to a Downtrend.
Note that its not always the case some times the trend resumes to create a new highs or move in sideways manner.

Support and Resistance
Support and resistance levels are simply those highs and lows that you draw on the chart. For example. The latest higher low in the chart above is the most important support level in the uptrend. Why i say the most important? because simply if the price breaks below that higher low, the the structure of higher highs and higher lows is no longer intact, as we will have a new low that's below the latest higher low as shown on chart. Read(2) on chart.

If that happens, a trader should be very careful, as the price may create a new lower high now somewhere below the latest high and resume the move lower to create a new lower low.

My best regards
Technician
Subscribe to my trading portal http://thefxchannel.com
1 day ago
USDCAD, 240 Neutral
9 388
Friends,

Here is perhaps an opportunity to peel confounding details between the Wolfe Wave and the Geo, using an independent model (Predictive/Forecasting Model).


WOLFE WAVE BASICS:

In its purest form, the Wolfe Wave suggests that upon completion of its 5th plot at Point-5, price is expected to reverse away from the geometry's 1-3 Line and move counter-trend-wise to the geometry's 1-4 Line, ak.a.: its profit line.

The other aspect of the Wolfe Wave is that it exists independent of any geometry, indicator or any advanced or subtle internal constructs. Therefore, Elliott Wave internal developments, Scott Carney's patterns, or Welles Wilder's RSI are simply not needed to confirm the simple completion of the Wolfe Wave ("WW"). It simply is what it is, and once complete, Point-5 becomes a point of counter-trend entry.


GEO BASICS:

In contrast, the "Geo" depends on certain geometric conditions, such as the reciprocal ab = cd symmetry of its 1-2 Leg, as well as Elliott Wave Double-ZZ (DZ) or Triple-ZZ (TZ) internal constructions of its 2-3 Leg, a simple ZZ of its 3-4 Leg, and at time, a cluster of Fibonacci values (1.414 or 1.618 are the most often sought) between these same legs (1-2, 2-3 and 3-4).


"WW" + "GEO" versus "Model"

As a reminder though: Any and all geometries used in my analyses stand in the background as visual support to the Predictive/Forecasting Model ("Model"), which stands as a completely independent actor in defining targets. It's simply that I have found the Wolfe Wave - and later on the refinement of the Wolfe Wave expressed at the "Geo" - as the closest geometries capable to closely spouse the extent of price action defined by the Model.

In effect, the Model will be able to define retracement and reversal levels, but remains incapable to define the bar-by-bar manner by which it will get to these targets. In contrast, the Wolfe Wave suggests the general "envelop" of that action, while the "Geo" defines in greater details intrinsic and predictive clues (1-4 Line as target based on internal rules, such as "Tunneling", "Geo-Anchoring" as external rule such as the Geo's OffSet Rule).


https://www.tradingview.com/x/VyMEg5fa/


OVERALL:

Independent from the geometries, the Predictive/Forecasting Model calls for higher highs attainment, namely the following two qualitative targets:

1 - TG-Hi = 1.27129 - 02 JUL 2015

and

2 - TG-Hix = 1.28144 - 02 JUL 2015

Whereas, the standard Wolfe Wave would simply call for a reversal at Point-5 and a take-profit along the 1-4 Line. I thought that this $USDCAD would offer the perfect opportunity to decipher and better explain the properties that distinguish Mr. Bill Wolfe's namesake WW and my discovery of the Geo and the development of an independent Predictive/Forecasting Model. All three are complementary and not meant to degrade one against the other - They simply offer a valuable edge that help the trader guard against premature actions.

Best,


David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Durango, Colorado - USA


-----
Twitter:
@4xForecaster

LinkedIn:
David Alcindor
-----


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1 day ago
EURUSD, D Neutral
3 587
Well, it has to break out next week, so for sure we are at a turning point... but which way will it turn?
Honestly, I have no clue at all. Thinking about the possibilities regarding macro picture, Grexit, US employment numbers (yesterday) and possible FED action, I still have the feeling that we have slightly bigger chance to see a bullish action in EURUSD, but this is just a feeling. As a technical trader the only we can and what we should follow is Price action itself.
However this time looking purely at charts we have a very difficult situation, as we have quite a mixed and different picture on weekly and on daily time frames.

Weekly - Looks bearish, but there are still some question marks:
- Price turns down from Kijun Sen, Ichimoku setup has rather bearish bias again.
- Heikin Ashi candle is bearish, haDelta is below SMA3 and Oscillator turned bearish too. However in haDelta there is still some chance to keep the bullish divergence. So as 5 weeks ago, it may happen again that we don't see a weekly follow through after this red candle, but another doji, or bullish candle with price moving higher again.
- We see quite clear support and resistance levels. Lower side is ard 1,0950. Upper side is at horizontal line and Kijun Sen 1,1330. Break through any of these important levels will decide next trending direction.

Daily - Looks neutral, with some initial bullish bias again
- Ichimoku setup is neutral, with still some bullish tone. Price is at Kumo, trades at short term equilibrium level of 1,1100. Chikou Span is still above past candles.
- Price has been moving in a simmetric tightenning triangle, which has to be broken by next week.
- Heikin Ashi today may give early signal for a possible bullish reversal.


One more thought to add: EUR has been extremely strong on all other crosses, shows no fear at all, completely recovered after initial knee jerk seling on Monday. So this whole thing in EURUSD might be rather decided from the USD side. What you can watch here is the change in FED Funds Rate fwd pricing of possible start of tightenning, or the US10Y Treasury spread above BUND.

If I had to chose, I'd say EURUSD Long still has slightly better expected risk-reward from these levels.
4 days ago
AUDUSD, 240 Short
150 7112
Update: Stopped out
Profit= -$600 .
Balance= 31 017 - 600 = $30 417
===========================================================================

Trade 14: SHORTED AUDUSD @0.7680
Trade Status: Active
S.L @ 0.7730
T1 0.7600
T2 0.7535

For $30 592 Balance, Position size = 1.2 lot ~ 2% risk of capital
===========================================================================

Reasoning

Retest of recent horziontal borken support
Descending resistance
Broken rising trend line
Multiple pin bar on retest
Negative sentiment surrounding markets, may support lower yielders.


Don't forget to click the Thumbs Up
Wish me luck and best of luck for everyone.

For Trades rules and guidelines follow this link https://www.tradingview.com/chart/EURUSD/van3YvDZ-Journey-to-100-Trades-Rules-and-Guidelines-forex/

My best regards
Technician
Subscribe to my trading portal http://thefxchannel.com
1 day ago
USDJPY, 240 Neutral
1 125
AS YOU CAN SEE PRICE IS MAKING AND ABCDE WEDGE. I AM THINKING PRICE WILL MAKE A GOOD RALLY UP

REASONS:
1) IF YOU SEE THE "E" WAVE FINISH JUST AT THE CONFLUENCE OF THE SUPPORT OF THE STRUCTURE AND THE 61%FIB LEVEL.
2)MACD IS SHOWING DIVERGENCE
3) IN A BIGGER PICTURE WE MIGHT HAVE AN ABC SEQUENCE, AND WITH "E" WAVE "B" WAVE FINISH TO START "C"WAVE

IN THE OTHER HAND, I DONT SEE US DOLLAR INDEX GOING UP TO GIVE THE STRENGH TO THE RALLY UP HERE, BUT ANYWAYS LOOKS REALLY GOOD THIS ANALYSIS, I AM 99% SURE THAT IS GOING UP.

ALSO, WITH "E" WAVE I WANT TO SEE MORE DIVERGENCE WITH MACD.

WHAT DO YOU GUYS THINK? I AM RIGHT?

LIKE OR COMMENT YOUR IDEAS PLEAS.
16 hours ago
GREK, D Neutral
2 42
With Greek markets closed, we have had to look elsewhere to measure the expectations and fears surrounding the Euro-area's most prominent threat. Will we can look at equity activity in the region, that is more a measure of contagion fears - which kicks in as the severity of fear gets to certain high levels. The GREK Greece ETF is more timely and certainly a substitute favorite if volume is any indication.
1 day ago
AUDUSD, D Short
6 411
We see that AUDUSD hold above key support 0.7580 for 4 months from March 11. This is a strong support which AUDUSD bounced from this level 5 times, and now AUDUSD once contacts this level. The question on the table now Does Aussie/Dollar breaks this level or bounces from the low ?

5 times bounce from the low, most people are thinking about BUY IN DIP, but be cautious . Let rethink about current situation.

I see that China stock fell sharply last month, and this trend could continue this month. PBOC cut rate, today Australia Retail Sales cann't beat the forecast.

Next week, we have RBA Minutes + Australia Employment report.

I surely RBA will use this meeting as a change to talk down the Aussie to respond the rate decision of PBOC, and most likely the employment report could be NEGATIVE.

This means Aussie most likely breaks the LOW and move lower.

- Back to the Technical Analysis.

+ RSI indicator show the indicator are falling down, and there still has the room for the decline: Oversell zone still wait for the contact.

+Price bounce from the intersection of two trend lines.

+ The most important thing I want to say is: Head and Shoulder Pattern: AUDUSD is now stop at the neckline of pattern.

Any break the neckline always goes with the downtrend. I wait for the break.

Next week: I WAIT FOR THE BREAK, BUT IF YOU BELIEVE IN MY ANALYSIS, HIT SELL ORDER NOW.

--------------------------

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Support: support@trackingforexsignals.com

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Best Regard!

- -TrackingForexSignals.com--

Do the Right thing- Think the right way.
1 day ago
BTCCNY, 480 Neutral
4 116
Looks like this wedge may complete this leg:
https://www.tradingview.com/x/jlt77AQd/

Measured move from the first part of the ABC points to low 1530s.
But the wedge implies low 1550s.
Although on the same wedge on 8hr makes 1546 possible.

Bigger question is which leg does this complete?
Notes to which are in the chart.
6 hours ago
SPX, W Long
0 32
the SPX has pulled back to a horizontal support. This subsequently is also a 50%fib. In fact, all the fibs at 50%, 61.8% and 71.8% have horizontal support. It is tough to decide where exactly the market will bounce; hence, my stop is below 71.8%.

Other supporting evidence:
(1) Notice the hidden bullish divergence in both MACD and Stochastic indicators. This is an indication that the previous weekly trend could resume.
(2) Notice how the weekly chart is still making higher highs and higher lows. July 2015 could be the month where a new bull market will resume.

Comments and what to look for and anticipate:
For the weeks of June 6 and June 13, 2015, I expect the weeks head to give a bullish sign to rally, with a projection target to 2175. from there, I will watch the market for any possible sign of a reversal.
1 day ago
GBPJPY, D Long
3 249
On the Daily chart price is trading in a correction in black wave 4. That said price may reach the fibo. level 0.382 of previous black wave 3, before turning to the upside. Invalidation level is at 184.470, as long as this level is not breached we are expecting a bullish turn, because wave 4 must not trade into wave 1.


www.ew-forecast.com
3 hours ago
SPX, M Neutral
1 24
Two long term trend signals are about to agree that a major sell-off could be in the works. the past two times these have aligned we have seen a drastic sell off. Conversely these sell off have eventually provided excellent long term buy opportunities.
1 day ago
CT1!, D Long
1 71
As wee see correction in blue wave B seems to be finished, as price moved sharply to the upside. That said new leg up in blue wave C is expected to unfold in weeks ahead. The price may move towards 72 - 73 area.


www.ew-forecast.com
22 hours ago
SPX, D Short
0 64
Benchmarking global equities to the start of 2013. Nikkei 225 regains top spot as China (red) collapses. Most impressive is SPX - incredibly slow and steady.
23 hours ago
GBPAUD, W Short
0 60
GBP has been on a tear vs the AUD. This is the first RSI BAMM set up we have had on the weekly chart in years. First there is a complex RSI formation back in January 2014, 50 RSI was breached, and now we are back above 70. There is also a beautiful 1.618 butterfly. I drew the D point at the top of the PRZ; That is where RSI became overbought. I always set my stop loss at the 1.27 extension of A and the top of the PRZ. Feel free to enter this anytime price is above 2.051. I expect this trade to make a 38.2% retracement 80% of the time.
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