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Launch Chart
9 hours ago
BTCUSD, D Neutral
7 655
On the left is our $266 high in 2013, on the right is our current volatile drop to $166 flipped upside down. A month ago I made a thread about how I believed we were in the middle of a shorting\bearish bubble, posted here:
http://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/2sbb0q/welcome_to_a_shorting_bubble/

And today, with our 20\20 retrospect goggles on, we can see that having formed out in the charts. These moves are partly harmonic\fractal because of the nature of markets to find a equilibrium, but I believe it shows the bubble cycle mentality that is so common in Bitcoin. In the past, the only way to participate in the price action was to buy. There was no ability to short on any exchange until basically 2014, where we saw the advent of the bear market. This means that the bears, like the bulls, need to have their chance at the extremely volatile, bubble-like nature of Bitcoin, and undergo a shorting bubble just like the bulls had a longing bubble.

I threw the ascending wedge pattern in there for shits and giggles, but I honestly do not know where this consolidation pattern will lead us (as my related idea below shows). I just find it fascinating how Bitcoin loves to repeat it's patterns; it loves it's fractals.

I used the April 2013 bubble because it fit the shape I was looking for more in form than the Nov 2013 one did where we twin-topped (inb4 accusations of form-fitting). If you scroll to Nov on the left chart then you can see what I am talking about, I added a few of my markings for comparison.

Let me know what you think! I'm liking the historical analysis "series" I've been doing, for some reason I keep finding these things. Like, comment, and follow!
18 hours ago
XAUUSD, 60 Short
18 741
Bear Gartley, Sorry for the lack of explanation earlier, but we found this while in the middle of my live trading room session. Essentially this is a bearish Gartley (which may have double topped by now) coming into previous structure. So for those looking to catch a move short.
3 days ago
EURUSD, D Long
139 6057
1. Trading is not a get rich quick scheme. it is a normal investment that gets you return on capital.

Did you ever hear of a trader making 100% percent return per month on a consistent manner? If you did, did you see a proof of that?

Trading professionally with proper money management would likely get you a return of few percents a month, from my personal experience a 3-5% return on capital per month is a very realistic number.

So if you’re that kind of person who wants to “make a killing” trading please reconsider your expectations

2. You should be well-capitalized. Small accounts will probably burn you.

This point is correlated to the first one, let me illustrate by an example:

Suppose that you have a 30k trading account, according to the 3-5 percent return per month rule; that would give you 1000-$1500 return per month, which is relatively a very good number.

Now let’s assume that you have a 5k account, according to the 3-5 percent rule, that would return 150-$250 per month.

In the 5k example, the return would likely be unsatisfying for someone looking to trade for living. Would it be for you? Wouldn't you break your money management rules and take more risk to increase that return?

3. Technical Analysis doesn't work all the time. Assumption we make will always have a percentage of failure. The main goal is to keep you risk limited, your targets bigger than your risk for consistent profit on the long run.

4. Trading is not about forecasting the market. Do not try to be smart and always forecast where markets are headed. What a trader does is, wait for the market to GIVE him certain conditions that validate a trade. (Don’t trade under the market rules, trade under your rules). Do you feel sometimes that your lost and don’t know what to do ? its probably because of this. This is very important, and helps avoid getting lost in the process..

5. If you did use stop loss on your trades within the past year, but you didn't and took excessive risk only on one trade, this single trade might wipe out all of the profits you gained through the year.

How many times did you ignore your stop loss convincing your self that you will close at better price, it may have worked sometimes, but what if the price goes against you more and more, are you mentally strong enough and able to close at a bigger loss? you probably won’t, and end up with a margin call.

6. Don’t over analyze. Over analysis and complicating your tools will lead to confusion and not necessarily efficient.

7. Ignore your bias, trades require technical evidence, 3,4 or 5 conditions that occur concurrently.

8. Always use a top to down analysis approach, from the higher time frame to the lower time frame. The higher the time frame the more strong and invulnerable the trend is, and the more strong and invulnerable the support and resistance levels are.

9. Trading setups that occur within the context of the trend usually turn more profitable than those against the trend.

10. Don’t give up when you encounter a losing streak, yeah it can go up to 10 losing trades… don’t worry it’s normal in trading.

Hope you found it useful and enjoyable... If you have points that you would add to this, I would be happy to hear them, please comment and discuss..

Be one of the first members of my new trading portal, check my new website http://thefxchannel.com/ , vote and subscribe. Thank you

https://twitter.com/thefxchannel
https://www.facebook.com/thefxchannel
https://plus.google.com/+Thefxchannel0
My best regards
Technician
1 day ago
XAUUSD, D Long
6 1009
Regardless of the latest strong bearish wave, the structure of higher highs and higher lows hasn't been broken yet, as the latest higher low is still intact and that keeps the short term bullish trend valid and hints a potential rebound as price attempts to maintain this structure with a new higher low. Having that said, i was looking for some bullish rebound signals that i could speculate on, what we have is : Multiple pin bars at the 61.8 key retracement level and near the rising trend line.. I am long from 1205 in my personal account, however i placed 1200 as an entry point for this idea for a more optimum trade in terms of a better risk-reward...

Thank you for reading , be one of the first members of my new trading portal, check my new website http://thefxchannel.com/ , vote and subscribe. Thank you


Trading Criteria:
1. Trades are taken in two units
2. First unit would be closed at first target
3. Stop loss is then moved to break-even
4. Second unit would be closed at second target
Notes:
5) If 90 percent of first target is reached I move stop loss to breakeven.
6) If 90 percent of first target is reached without triggering entry I cancel the trade.
7) Remember: Losing is a main part of the game
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Good luck, keep your stops tight..
https://twitter.com/thefxchannel
https://www.facebook.com/thefxchannel
https://plus.google.com/+Thefxchannel0
My best regards
Technician
7 hours ago
EURUSD, 240 Long
20 490
Hey gang, lot's of dollar strength today and after big moves we typically see some relief. Below is a link to my weekly trading video where I'll walk you through the 3 different opportunities that the EURUSD will offer us to get long.

"What The Internet Won't Tell You" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kUA_hZ3DaNY&feature=youtu.be
16 hours ago
GBPUSD, D Neutral
4 420
If you start your analysis of GBPUSD at the low in January and walk forward from there and watch the mode build higher and higher, you can get an idea of how accumulation occurs and then use that accumulation to project both time and price.

Note how I have labeled all of the modes as the price has moved since the low and take note of how the largest time of 9, I placed a box around the price range from the first touch of the mode to the last touch of the mode. That range is then the accumulation range and you then look for a move above that mode equivalent to the accumulation range.

Note how there are 9-days at the mode around 1.54 and there was a 9-day rally which ended yesterday.

This is the way that I analyze the structure of the market. Realize that this is only daily time frame analysis.

Cheers.

Tim 9:58AM EST Feb 26, 2015 1.54151 last GBPUSD
8 hours ago
NZDUSD, D Short
1 427
The NZD/USD has been in a significant downtrend since July of 2014 as the USD strength continues to rule the FX Market.

We have seen quite a dramatic pullback within the NZD/USD that has now set us up for an excellent selling opportunity to trade back in line with the overall downtrend.

We have 8 factors of confluence on the daily chart that support a bearish bias.

1. Trading With The Trend
2. Pinbar Sell Signal
3. Double Top Formation
4. Rejection of 50 EMA
5. Rejection of .5-.618 Fib Retracement
6. Rejection of Key Resistance at .7600 (Previous Key Support)
7. Rejection of Descending Channel Trendline
8. Bearish Wedge Continuation Pattern

We have two entry options available to use, both offering great risk-reward ratios.

I expect this market to breakdown and target the next KEY weekly support at 72 cents. Breaking below 72 cents opens up the gates for 70 cents as the next downside target.
23 hours ago
LS1!, M Neutral
8 90
I had 3 follow up post of Lumber futures to see the progress of the triangle breakout towards inflation or housing slump.
Since like lumber is heading for housing slump

I've decided to overlay LS1! vs SPX to see how they behave for the last two crisis.
Orange line (Lumber futures), Blue Line (SPX)

Red bold vertical line with a circle indicates the point when Lumber and SPX started to diverge. And black thin vertical line being the exact equity market top before collapsing.

For 2000 tech bubble:
Lumber peaked at Feb 2000 while SPX peaked at Aug 2000. Hence it took 6 months later for SPX to crash.

For 2008 subprime crisis
It took 14 months before SPX finally had enough of bull fun.

Currently, i am not sure whether it will be a correction or crisis
The fact is :
Lumber had peaked out since March 2013. And 24 months later SPX has yet to peak.

The million dollar question will be what is the value of X (i shall limit it to single digit??)

15 hours ago
AMZN, M Long
3 228
In order to make 10 times your money, sometimes you do have to risk 27% - 48% of your capital. Why? Because that is just what it takes to make a massive return on your capital. If you risk 50% to make 10 times your money, that is a 20:1 winning trade.

Look at the times when AMZN fell to roughly 2 times sales and had you purchased back in 2005-2006 in the 30's, you would have faced some deep drawdowns in the value of your shares, to the tune of 27% right off the bat and then several other large drawdowns along the way. But, in the end, that is the way that long term, huge gains are made in the stock market.

Note too that when AMZN gets up to near 3 times sales (PSR of 3) that sellers come out of the woodwork and slows down the price appreciation until the valuation can catch up.

I hope this is instructive for any of you who are interested in learning how to invest in the stock market. If you believe that you need to cut your losses at 7%, then you will find it very difficult to hold onto a 10X winner like this one, ever.

Cheers,

Tim
1 day ago
USOIL, 240 Long
14 1125
Crude oil might be heading towards the top of the recent sideways range, the price has broken above the main falling trend line(thick dashed line), its usual that we see price move in sideways bias following a trend line breakout as the supply demand equilibrium might have changed, and the previous downside bias could be changing to neutral.

Furthermore, we have seen a breakout above the short term descending trend line(thin dashed line), in addition to the horizontal resistance near 50.30 area, which was followed by a pin bar candle.

To make a long story short, I placed a buy limit order targeting the top of the range near 54.20. What i don't like much about this trade is the risk-reward ratio for the first half of the position its just above 1:1 ..

Thank you for reading , be one of the first members of my new trading portal, check my new website http://thefxchannel.com/ , vote and subscribe. Thank you


Trading Criteria:
1. Trades are taken in two units
2. First unit would be closed at first target
3. Stop loss is then moved to break-even
4. Second unit would be closed at second target
Notes:
5) If 90 percent of first target is reached I move stop loss to breakeven.
6) If 90 percent of first target is reached without triggering entry I cancel the trade.
7) Remember: Losing is a main part of the game
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Good luck, keep your stops tight..
https://twitter.com/thefxchannel
https://www.facebook.com/thefxchannel
https://plus.google.com/+Thefxchannel0
My best regards
Technician
1 day ago
USDCAD, D Short
2 374
Bearish bias prevails at this point


PREDICTIVE/FORECASTING MODEL:

- Numerical Targets:

1 - TG-1 = 1.21656 - 25 FEB 2015
and
2 - TG-2 = 1.17984 - 25 FEB 2015


- Nominal Targets:

1 - TG-Lo = 1.15527 - 25 FEB 2015
and
2 - TG-Lox = 1.13517 - 25 FEB 2015


STRUCTURAL TRADING:

- Invalidation > 1.26965
- Strongest bearish resistance @ 1.26234 - See "Market Geo" next for expected rallying extent.


GEOMETRIC DEVELOPMENT:

- Potential WW with pending 5-wave expected as a Point-5-prime expression, rather than a conventional Point-5; Subsequent rallying would likely be capped at WW's Point-4 level, or 1.26620.

Expect a protracted, time-consumptive unfolding of price at this level, as EW's 4th wave is unfolding, respective of the "Rule Of Alternations".


OVERALL:

Bearish bias pending significant break of floor, which is not expected to occur until resolution of background advance geometry.

Stay tuned,


David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Denver, Colorado - USA


-----
Twitter:
@4xForecaster

LinkedIn:
David Alcindor
-----

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1 day ago
BTCUSD, W Long
3 323
Decided to try out these arc patterns ive seen a lot of people doing. Im expecting an end to the bear market in Q1 2015. Breaking that SMA is my conformation target.
1 day ago
GBPUSD, 240 Short
10 601
Im still short on this pair. The gartley pattern failed but today the bat pattern was respected to the pip.
Good luck.
1 day ago
XAUUSD, D Long
1 282
Gold prices are likely bottoming after having retraced a big chunk of the January rally this month. Looking at the XAUUSD chart over the past two and a half years, prices have started to bounce off an old bearish trend line that was broke through at the start of the year. There's also a bullish trend line coming in at the $1190 level. Technicals suggest that a bounce in gold prices could target at least $1230 in the beginning of March, but I think the market could work its way back up to $1250 so long as the dollar continues to consolidate. After Yellen's testimonies this week, I find that the greenback faces downside risk as economists and traders are likely to push back their aggressive forecasts for a rate hike before September. A bearish reversal in the dollar market would bolster the upside potential for gold in March, and that could allow it to rally all the way back up to $1300. Note however that we'd need to see a break above the January highs before being able to expect a true gold rally over the long term.

I am bullish above $1200.
1 day ago
GLD, D Long
3 295
GLD touched KEY TREND SUPPORT that was labeled at 114.61 here.
Let's look for a move up to the recent high at 125.
As long as the recent low holds, there is a decent chance for a rally.

If we get through 124 on this run, then look for a rally through the balance of 2015.

Tim 8:05PM Wed, February 25, 2015 115.70 last GLD
16 hours ago
GPRO, D Long
1 141
GPRO is down 54% since the beginning of October. It has consolidated in a downward wedge and is now sitting on significant support - retesting the price where it first reported earnings in August 2014 & its .236 Fibbonaci retracement, while nudged against TL support. RSI shows a bullish divergence since mid-December and is forming a rounding pattern. High probability trade setup. Entry at $44.75. First target is $53.5 with further upside to $63 (yellow boxes = acceptable profit zones).

2.26.15 - 9:55am EST
16 hours ago
EURUSD, 240 Neutral
1 209
This Cypher was one of two possible setups I've posted in the Weekly Markets Analysis this week.
Now that the $EURUSD has reached the PRZ, it will be interesting to monitor price intra-day price reversals.

Subscribe to the Weekly Markets Analysis
http://www.themarketzone.net/#!wma/c1jxp
17 hours ago
AAPL, W Neutral
2 183
-because Carl Icahn says Apple is underpriced by 2x?
-because AppleWatch is launching soon?
-because of iCar rumors?

Firstly, Carl Icahn as an activist investor himself and having invested into Apple shares himself makes his credibility zero. Can you really take this guy's words for real? When is he going to dump on you?

Second, will Apple Watch really take off like what many claims it will be?

Third, people are buying into the rumor of Apple developing a car and that might bring in a potential 100b + revenue? what? Sure if you're speculating on Tesla, but Apple Car isn't even out to date.
Buy the rumor, sell the news. (See: https://www.tradingview.com/v/prkfU7Tq/ )

To sum things up, there's simply so much more to lose than to gain from buying here. The market will always be there, sometimes you're better off not trading and wait for an opportunity.
Patience is the word.

Sure if you've already bought Apple at a low price, its still worth holding it over long term.
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