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Launch Chart
16 hours ago
26
1279
1. As a novice trader, one of the biggest mistakes you can make, especially after having had a number of successful trades, is thinking you know what you are doing when you actually don´t. This will be the cause of every trading error you have the potential to make.
2. It takes absolutely no skill at all to place a winning trade. It does to consistently do it.
3. Be unoriginal. Save the innovative strategies and custom indicators for when you have learned how to trade.
4. Do not judge a trade on its result. A good trade can turn out a loser. A bad trade can turn out a winner.
5. Don’t focus too much on making money in the beginning. As you are still improving, it should not be your goal to make money. It should be your goal to make good trades.
6. In trading, there is no supervisor or manager reviewing every decision before it’s made. Success, for better or worse, is totally self-dependent. This is not for everybody. Find out if it’s for you.
7. Though this site has many of its members emphasizing on technical analysis, don’t underestimate the impact of fundamentals on price action. Understanding them will increase your edge in trading.
8. Don’t overemphasize the importance of finding the best trading system. Equally important are psychology and money management.
9. Online chat rooms can be good learning tools and from time to time very entertaining, but beware of entering trades that are not part of your trading plan or trade setups that you have not studied for yourself.
10. Eliminate your mistakes. Do this on a daily basis, mistake per mistake. Eventually you will run out of mistakes to make.
2. It takes absolutely no skill at all to place a winning trade. It does to consistently do it.
3. Be unoriginal. Save the innovative strategies and custom indicators for when you have learned how to trade.
4. Do not judge a trade on its result. A good trade can turn out a loser. A bad trade can turn out a winner.
5. Don’t focus too much on making money in the beginning. As you are still improving, it should not be your goal to make money. It should be your goal to make good trades.
6. In trading, there is no supervisor or manager reviewing every decision before it’s made. Success, for better or worse, is totally self-dependent. This is not for everybody. Find out if it’s for you.
7. Though this site has many of its members emphasizing on technical analysis, don’t underestimate the impact of fundamentals on price action. Understanding them will increase your edge in trading.
8. Don’t overemphasize the importance of finding the best trading system. Equally important are psychology and money management.
9. Online chat rooms can be good learning tools and from time to time very entertaining, but beware of entering trades that are not part of your trading plan or trade setups that you have not studied for yourself.
10. Eliminate your mistakes. Do this on a daily basis, mistake per mistake. Eventually you will run out of mistakes to make.
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14 hours ago
22
895
Multiple potential advanced patterns setting up on the USDJPY all around the same area. We've yet to break out of this consolidation, but if we do before Friday's Jobs number, we have a good location to look for our next short.
Before I get a million nasty messages no, I don't think dollar weakness and Yen strength long term, but that's what makes me a "Trader" and not an "investor" I don't have a long term bias when trading on shorter term charts. I take the setups as they come bullish or bearish despite my personal fundamental outlook.
Before I get a million nasty messages no, I don't think dollar weakness and Yen strength long term, but that's what makes me a "Trader" and not an "investor" I don't have a long term bias when trading on shorter term charts. I take the setups as they come bullish or bearish despite my personal fundamental outlook.
19 hours ago
1
923
I don't often go to the 1hr time frame, but I'm hunting around for a better long entry on a retracement. This is just something to keep on the radar for the time being. A move above 'C' will invalidate this pattern, and really both 'C' and 'B' are ever so slightly not "perfect" (see below). On the whole this looks to be a well formed pattern. This would be a long trade/buy opportunity, which would only be taken at the 'D' completion point... if price gets there.
The butterfly contains an ABCD pattern preceded by a significant low (X) or high. This pattern is found only at significant market tops or bottoms.
Requirements:
'B' point should be a .786 retracement of the XA leg
'C' point should be either .382 or .886 retracement of AB
Swing from A to D should be a 1.272 or 1.618 extension of XA
'D' Must be below 'X'
A valid ABCD must be observed in the extension move (AD)
*Ideally*, the two triangles will be nearly equal in time, XAB and BCD. Otherwise, look for BCD to complete between 1.272 and 1.618.
A move beyond 1.618 renders the pattern invalid and suggests a strong trend continuation in progress.
The butterfly contains an ABCD pattern preceded by a significant low (X) or high. This pattern is found only at significant market tops or bottoms.
Requirements:
'B' point should be a .786 retracement of the XA leg
'C' point should be either .382 or .886 retracement of AB
Swing from A to D should be a 1.272 or 1.618 extension of XA
'D' Must be below 'X'
A valid ABCD must be observed in the extension move (AD)
*Ideally*, the two triangles will be nearly equal in time, XAB and BCD. Otherwise, look for BCD to complete between 1.272 and 1.618.
A move beyond 1.618 renders the pattern invalid and suggests a strong trend continuation in progress.
12 hours ago
1
495
This is a hypothetical trade.
However, Technically, a trend following trade looks imminent.
The overall trend remains bearish
The retraced towards the main falling trend line
and 50 percent of the latest bearish wave
Another key horizontal high is at 310.00.
RSI near overbought
Having that said, odds favor a short position.
http://thefxchannel.com/ , vote and subscribe
However, Technically, a trend following trade looks imminent.
The overall trend remains bearish
The retraced towards the main falling trend line
and 50 percent of the latest bearish wave
Another key horizontal high is at 310.00.
RSI near overbought
Having that said, odds favor a short position.
http://thefxchannel.com/ , vote and subscribe
17 hours ago
8
291
I am looking to short as the price has completed a double top at the top of rising channel. Stochastic crossed overbought region confirming the sell signal. Good luck
17 hours ago
1
268
With the huge drop of this pair thanks to the relatively good numbers announced for USD and the unchanged interest rate for CAD, we are sooner near to completion of this Cypher pattern than expected. It's not quite in the reversal zone yet but a little further down during tomorrow's early session is certainly possible.
4 hours ago
5
467
05 MAR 2015 - Tech-Note:
Friends,
A quick explanation of what TG-Hi, Lo and TG-Hix and TG-Lox are - Cut/pasted from a private message:
WHAT ARE TG-Hi/Lo; HOW DO THEY COMPARE TO TG-Hix/Lox?
----------------------------------
TG-Hi and TG-Lo are are named target, as opposed to numbered target, hence called nominal target.
Nominal targets represent a low-probability level of being attained, but a high-probability level of reversal if and once price gets there.
Hi refers to the bullish placement relative to price, whereas Lo is its antipod, bearish placement.
Because the markets will be subjected to a varying degree of momentum, the model also ascribes a much lower, and in fact, rarer occurrence, whereby price would reach an extreme reversible level, which explains the "x" in the targets, or TG-Hix and TG-Lox.
All TG-Lo/Hi targets will be in RED, whereas their extremes will be in PURPLE.
Most recently, I have added numbers in BLUE which represent trigger level that, if reached, should prompt the trader to turn to a higher timeframe, in the order of 4 times the current frame (e.g.: M15 x 4 = H1, H1 x 4 = H4, ... etc) as attainment of this level is simple the rarest of events, and suggests a higher-frame interference by typically better funded players, stronger institutions - This augmentation in timeframe should be done even once the purple target is in effect and the technical analysis should be redrawn or at least re-considered at the newer, higher frame, simply to preempt any cooptation by stronger actors - I will post this explanation on few other charts as well - Thank you for asking and remaining curious. - David Alcindor
----------------------------------
... cont'd in thread ...
----------------------------------
David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Denver, Colorado - USA
-----
Twitter:
@4xForecaster
LinkedIn:
David Alcindor
See our All-Time TradingView Top Authors:
- https://www.tradingview.com/people/all/
------
.
Friends,
A quick explanation of what TG-Hi, Lo and TG-Hix and TG-Lox are - Cut/pasted from a private message:
WHAT ARE TG-Hi/Lo; HOW DO THEY COMPARE TO TG-Hix/Lox?
----------------------------------
TG-Hi and TG-Lo are are named target, as opposed to numbered target, hence called nominal target.
Nominal targets represent a low-probability level of being attained, but a high-probability level of reversal if and once price gets there.
Hi refers to the bullish placement relative to price, whereas Lo is its antipod, bearish placement.
Because the markets will be subjected to a varying degree of momentum, the model also ascribes a much lower, and in fact, rarer occurrence, whereby price would reach an extreme reversible level, which explains the "x" in the targets, or TG-Hix and TG-Lox.
All TG-Lo/Hi targets will be in RED, whereas their extremes will be in PURPLE.
Most recently, I have added numbers in BLUE which represent trigger level that, if reached, should prompt the trader to turn to a higher timeframe, in the order of 4 times the current frame (e.g.: M15 x 4 = H1, H1 x 4 = H4, ... etc) as attainment of this level is simple the rarest of events, and suggests a higher-frame interference by typically better funded players, stronger institutions - This augmentation in timeframe should be done even once the purple target is in effect and the technical analysis should be redrawn or at least re-considered at the newer, higher frame, simply to preempt any cooptation by stronger actors - I will post this explanation on few other charts as well - Thank you for asking and remaining curious. - David Alcindor
----------------------------------
... cont'd in thread ...
----------------------------------
David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Denver, Colorado - USA
-----
Twitter:
@4xForecaster
LinkedIn:
David Alcindor
See our All-Time TradingView Top Authors:
- https://www.tradingview.com/people/all/
------
.
17 hours ago
5
144
A follow-up on the chart I posted last Monday. The first of the predicted bat patterns has come to a completion now.
Don't go long just yet though, we have a Draghi speech tomorrow which could have an impact on price action. I'd wait for either a good confirmation and entry signal, either a completion of the second pattern.
There might not be that much upside to the EUR with the QE kicking in next week.
Don't go long just yet though, we have a Draghi speech tomorrow which could have an impact on price action. I'd wait for either a good confirmation and entry signal, either a completion of the second pattern.
There might not be that much upside to the EUR with the QE kicking in next week.
1 day ago
21
890
There are several EURO news events this morning (pmi´s and retail sales). Depending on whether they are favorable or unfavorable as a whole, we could have an opportunity to trade out of those news events with the reversal of an advanced price pattern that is nearing its completion on the 4H timeframe. Price is already testing the potential reversal zone and this set up qualifies as a “trade candidate” and goes on my watch list.
When defining the potential reversal zone (PRZ) for a Gartley pattern, we look at the projection of three harmonic levels. I: the 786 retracement of XA, II: an AB = CD pattern and III: a BC expansion converging in the same area (in this case 1272 BC). This defines a tight zone, about 26 pips wide, represented by the orange lines in the chart. Should price action reverse convincingly, I would enter long. SL goes 10 pips behind the next support level. TP1 = 382 retracement of AD and TP2 = 618 retracement of AD.
There are 220 pips to be made (if this pair follows the script) and the trade has a reward – risk ratio of 2.0!
When defining the potential reversal zone (PRZ) for a Gartley pattern, we look at the projection of three harmonic levels. I: the 786 retracement of XA, II: an AB = CD pattern and III: a BC expansion converging in the same area (in this case 1272 BC). This defines a tight zone, about 26 pips wide, represented by the orange lines in the chart. Should price action reverse convincingly, I would enter long. SL goes 10 pips behind the next support level. TP1 = 382 retracement of AD and TP2 = 618 retracement of AD.
There are 220 pips to be made (if this pair follows the script) and the trade has a reward – risk ratio of 2.0!
23 hours ago
7
388
With multiple bounces of various support levels and the breakout of the long term downtrend trendline, finally we should see some strength in AUDUSD. I have two main targets for an upside swing, however, pair might retrace back to 0.7780 before / if going to hit the target. On the downside note, breakout below 0.7740 would invalidate these analyses and could once again send pair lower toward 0.7640 area.
18 hours ago
4
249
Does not feel like the 50 period SMA can hold this up... sticking to original call from March 1st on the pull back.
11 hours ago
0
154
We must be prepared for some fundamental news on thursday.
This bat pattern can work well if there are positive news for the EU.
Good luck.
Important: the fixed target is only for information purposes, you must use your own trade management system if the trade is open.
Good luck.
This bat pattern can work well if there are positive news for the EU.
Good luck.
Important: the fixed target is only for information purposes, you must use your own trade management system if the trade is open.
Good luck.
21 hours ago
6
210
My feeling is that this may be happening.
Everyone has been expecting $300 plus, but to me this looks like a 3 wave impulse ending at 295.
Also there's the divergence on the CCI that has been present the whole way up.
CCI failign on the red overhead resistance too.
And RSI is topping .
If so I'm looking for a buy in the retrace zone.
Comments please. (ignore my EW numbering as usual DanV) :-)
Thanks a lot
Everyone has been expecting $300 plus, but to me this looks like a 3 wave impulse ending at 295.
Also there's the divergence on the CCI that has been present the whole way up.
CCI failign on the red overhead resistance too.
And RSI is topping .
If so I'm looking for a buy in the retrace zone.
Comments please. (ignore my EW numbering as usual DanV) :-)
Thanks a lot
6 hours ago
1
382
Fundamentally there are several forces at work on this pair. There is a safe-haven demand for the Yen after China’s downgrade of its growth outlook creating some selling pressure while the policy divergence between the FED and the BoJ creates buying pressure. On the daily timeframe it has been trading inside a triangle consolidation pattern since December last year. The next critical data point to be released impacting this pair will be US employment data, which may provide fresh impulses. Meanwhile, on the hourly timeframe, we can see the contours of a bearish Bat pattern developing. Price has comfortably passed the B point and travelled 70% on the way from C to the potential reversal zone (PRZ). With this, the set up qualifies as a trade candidate and it goes on my watch list.
When defining the potential reversal zone (PRZ) for a Bat pattern, we look at the projection of three harmonic levels. I: the 886 retracement of XA, II: an extended AB = CD pattern (in this case 1618 AB = CD) and III: a BC expansion (in this case 2000 BC). This defines an extremely tight zone, just 5 pips wide, represented by the orange lines in the chart. There is structure inside this zone (a 4H resistance level), which increases the edge of a reversal. Should price action test the PRZ and reverse convincingly, I would enter short. SL goes 10 pips behind X. TP1 = 382 retracement of AD and TP2 = 618 retracement of AD.
There are 50 pips to be made (if this pair follows the script) and the trade has a reward – risk ratio of 2.5!
When defining the potential reversal zone (PRZ) for a Bat pattern, we look at the projection of three harmonic levels. I: the 886 retracement of XA, II: an extended AB = CD pattern (in this case 1618 AB = CD) and III: a BC expansion (in this case 2000 BC). This defines an extremely tight zone, just 5 pips wide, represented by the orange lines in the chart. There is structure inside this zone (a 4H resistance level), which increases the edge of a reversal. Should price action test the PRZ and reverse convincingly, I would enter short. SL goes 10 pips behind X. TP1 = 382 retracement of AD and TP2 = 618 retracement of AD.
There are 50 pips to be made (if this pair follows the script) and the trade has a reward – risk ratio of 2.5!
15 hours ago
2
168
So... On Monday I made a video forecast for the coming week. We discussed a lot of cool stuff, that honestly you won't hear anywhere else. So first off check out this video to see how precise the concepts worked for us
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ok_SLDU2f4g
ICT Orderblocks
In the video we discussed orderblocks, taught by Inner Circle Trader. The concept behind them is that 1. smart money is the force that moves markets 2. smart money sells into buying. Therefore, a bearish orderblock is a green candle (smart money sells into buying) that sees an immediate, violent movement down ward. In the video we go through this more. But I have illustrated that black line to show the precision of this concepts. The forces that move the market were active at this level and it shows.
Equilibrium
The fib illustrates our equilibrium concept. This is hard to explain in text, so just watch the video. No one else will show you this stuff.
Ballers Fair Value
So, ballers do not overpay for bitcoins. We have some measure of what fair value is. In the video, I show how awesome the 14day MA is, the times its most effective, and how to use it. We used equilibrium to indicate that we were very extended for this surge up. At the same time, we were moving further away from fair value as defined by our 14 day MA.
Due to all these factors, We should be looking to buy only when price gets back to fair value.
If this intrigues you, subscribe for more. There's just no one talking about any of this stuff, and this is how to crush the market. And this is only like 10% of my stuff. I could make a video every day for a month and still have more to say about the bitcoin market. SRS.
https://twitter.com/BallerTrader
http://ballertrader.com/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ok_SLDU2f4g
ICT Orderblocks
In the video we discussed orderblocks, taught by Inner Circle Trader. The concept behind them is that 1. smart money is the force that moves markets 2. smart money sells into buying. Therefore, a bearish orderblock is a green candle (smart money sells into buying) that sees an immediate, violent movement down ward. In the video we go through this more. But I have illustrated that black line to show the precision of this concepts. The forces that move the market were active at this level and it shows.
Equilibrium
The fib illustrates our equilibrium concept. This is hard to explain in text, so just watch the video. No one else will show you this stuff.
Ballers Fair Value
So, ballers do not overpay for bitcoins. We have some measure of what fair value is. In the video, I show how awesome the 14day MA is, the times its most effective, and how to use it. We used equilibrium to indicate that we were very extended for this surge up. At the same time, we were moving further away from fair value as defined by our 14 day MA.
Due to all these factors, We should be looking to buy only when price gets back to fair value.
If this intrigues you, subscribe for more. There's just no one talking about any of this stuff, and this is how to crush the market. And this is only like 10% of my stuff. I could make a video every day for a month and still have more to say about the bitcoin market. SRS.
https://twitter.com/BallerTrader
http://ballertrader.com/
17 hours ago
0
249
We've had a Crab pattern (grey pattern) complete nicely at the 293 level. I'm looking for a retracement to the 0.618 area around 255-260 before moving higher to the 300-330 region.
We also had a Bat pattern completion (just short of the 0.886XA but I'm counting it anyway as most would shadow the level rather than aim for a direct hit) which resulted in a 0.50 retracement of the the CD leg before moving higher to the Crab completion.
We also had a Bat pattern completion (just short of the 0.886XA but I'm counting it anyway as most would shadow the level rather than aim for a direct hit) which resulted in a 0.50 retracement of the the CD leg before moving higher to the Crab completion.
1 day ago
3
389
As SP500 has been losing momentum in the last 6 months and seems to be reaching what could be the TOP (In time and price), it becomes increasingly relevant to take a step back a reevaluate extreme scenarios.
In any case what seems clear is that SP500 could be above 10,000 in the years 2030.
The question is whether SP500 is going to suffer a 50%+ dive in the next 2 to 4 years and if that correction will be slow/painful or will come as a fast shock (maybe the second then the first).
As Governments have already used all their easing ammunitions, if there is a problem, it may take longer to resolve.
This is all vague at this stage. The take away is that markets often work in trio and a third leg down of 50% is possible.
Of course, thinking of 50% down seems ridiculous when most managers currently wonder if SP500 will reach 2300 this year but it was the same in 2000 and 2007: nobody could foresee what was coming and everybody was looking up.
Note: in 2013 and 2014, many prominent analysts were forecasting large corrections... They are instinct now. The move is therefore more likely to occur.
1 day ago
7
645
Potential bearish Bat Pattern completion at a pretty decent resistance level.
There's not much at all that has caught my attention in the Forex market and I've got about an hour left before my trading day starts, so just having some fun by looking around and seeing what else is out there.
There's not much at all that has caught my attention in the Forex market and I've got about an hour left before my trading day starts, so just having some fun by looking around and seeing what else is out there.
