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EURUSD, 240 Short
30 1034
Gray charts are weekly trades. That means that they are independent of other charts that I publish. So do not be alarmed if I am short on the weekly trade and long on the daily or monthly. That is absolutely normal
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XAUUSD, 240 Neutral
8 1158
GOLD UPDATE
I am still holding my short at 1366 for the
AB=CD Complete (see my previous idea)
CLOSED 2/3 and Balance Position with B.E SL.
I am watching this triangle and the CPL
(Critical Price Level) at the yellow zone
for Gold to make its direction.
If it break down 1307, I will consider to short the pull back
again for more decline.
If it breaks up the tri-angle
I will close all my short position and get ready to long.
This is my trading plan
USDJPY, 120 Short
7 1152
Price has reached a daily downtrend, it has been rejected from that level, it broke below the wedge it was moving in, it's consolidating below the broken level and MACD bearish divergence is present. Great sell opportunity here..!

Like and comment for updates... If a setup comletes i will come back letting you all know.!

Daily downtrend:
https://www.tradingview.com/x/P0mmcCaH/
XAUUSD, 120 Long
4 264
I'm planning to long Gold at 1306
TG1:1350
EURUSD, D Neutral
0 530
Brexit made the Euro break under the uptrend mode support, very bearish. Right now, the Monthly has a potential downtrend setup to confirm if price is under 1.1216 by end of July.

We could form a new 15 week mode here by the end of the month. This could propel the daily and weekly trends up,
against the monthly confirmation. What this tells me is simple, sell the top of the rally to rejoin the bigger picture trend.
This will take time, meanwhile, we should look for a safe exit for our shorts, and flip long.

I think the market will go for everyone's stops, and everyone must be short the Euro right now.
It's highly likely we'll see the Euro, Gold, Silver and the Yen rally together once this happens, as a risk off event.

The G20 summit might be the catalyst for this to happen, expecting a major shift and volatility, potentially an equities selloff to come as well. After Monday's close, we can determine the new key level location. Pay close attention this week.

Check out my updated track record here: http://pastebin.com/6CyyqnPT

If interested in my real time whatsapp alerts and swing trading newsletter, or in personal tuition, contact me privately. I'm offering a considerable discount on a packaged course which includes access to my private trading signals list for a year.

Cheers!

Ivan Labrie

Link to Tim West's chatroom: https://www.tradingview.com/chat/#c8BzrhGRvXxGXWnJ
We discuss setups like this often there. Feel free to stop by and subscribe to his indicator pack. If you have any questions ask.

Risk disclaimer: My analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
USOIL, D Neutral
27 1253
During the last 2 weeks oil was consolidating. As today we broke 44.40$ the bounce above 50$ is off the table for 2 weeks.
First we need to print the daily cycle low in 2 weeks. When oil bottoms and start to rally again oil related stocks will rally.
It will also give a big push to the general stock market as well.

We just have to wait for oil to bottom. I will be buying between 38-42$.
It seems strong not a big decline. We might bottom at 42$. Time will tell.

I'm not shorting oil. If something the World's powers don't want - especially USA-Govt before elections -- : an oil related recession because of falling oil prices.
So oil at 40$ is a buy.
XAUJPY, D Long
5 242
Why Gold is lagging Safe have losses & Yen is outperforming

1. When looking at Gold vs Yen or XAUJPY it becomes apparent why Gold is lagging the broad safe haven losses that we have seen during this risk-recovery rally - investors are buying gold over Yen - so gold appears to be their preferred safe have asset to hold in a risk-on rally - likely a function of perceived future weakness of Yen? BOJ/ JPY Govt stimulus?

- This may be the case for three reasons; 1) Investors speculate JPY is due further downside gains compared to gold (Gold is the stronger Risk-off asset) and they speculate that BOJ may deliver a big devaluing package and/ or 2) They believe JPY is more overvalued than Gold so they sell their JPY holdings over their Yen. 3) Gold is more illiduid compared to Yen e.g. investors have been able to sell their Yen faster/ easier than their Gold as Gold is a physical asset and FX markets are the most liquid markets in the world - whereas Yen is pure currency which is convertible at any level.

Implications:

1. This infers that investors expect Gold to continue to outperform in risk-off rallies going forward - which makes sense given Gold is already up 30% this year vs Yen's only 20% up - so they see further upside for Gold. This could be the case as the market discounts the probability that the BOJ/ JPY govt delivers a large easing package which devalues the JPY.

- Therefore Gold shorts should be careful during this risk-on rally as when the tides change back to the trend of risk-off, Gold is more likely to rally aggressively in comparison to Yen.

Trading strategy:

1. Buying Gold on the risk-on reversal (to risk-off) - we should allocate the liquidity to Gold over Yen to take advantage of this investor sentiment.

2. The market is clearly discounting quit aggressive JPY weakness when relatively compared to other safe havens - likely due to BOJ/ JPY Govt stimulus worries.

- Knowing this, we should potentially position for JPY shorts - since the market clearly is positioning for some serious JPY weakness relatively - a big BOJ package?

3. Whilst safe havens have outperformed risk by 14% (20% safe havens 6% risk-on assets - pre-brexit) - Gold has also outperformed Yen by 7%.

- Therefore in risk-off rallies we SHOULD expect Yen to underperform Gold e.g. GOLD should be brought over Yen.

- In risk-on rallies (now) we should expect Yen shorts to outperform Gold as Yen is considered the poorer asset - USDJPY longs are better/ safe than Gold shorts (hence supporting my long $yen view).

*Check the attached posts that also support the long $Yen view in this market*
CL1!, 240 Neutral
8 158
Correction structure of usoil is quite clear now. The wave C-4 is a triangle structure and was broken in Friday. The price is in wave C-5 currently. The target of C-5 is at around 42.2 based on the triangle broken and 41.4 if wave C-5 equals C-1. The correction might finish next week.

Trading suggestion:
The price rebounded from bottom of the channel. Watch for the resistance at 44.5~44.7 which has a short trading opportunity if price is rejected back with SL at 45.1
TP1: 42.2
TP2: 41.4

Or you can wait for the complete of correction to go long.

Good luck for everyone!
EURUSD, W Long
2 222
Eur/usd temporary long then go for short
USDJPY, 240 Short
0 175
Weekly:
Price has hit a major support area at 101.500. It has been a nice test but It will have to retest it sooner or later.

Daily:
Looking at the daily price is moving on a nice downtrend. Price hit and rejected the 50 MA numerous attempts confirming it has turned into a dynamic resistance.

4 Hour:
There can be either of two areas which can bring price down to make a lower low. 106.500 - 107.500 range and/or 109.000 if price decides to move that far for its continuation down.
A nice TP should be around 99.500 area.

Wishing everyone a good trading week!
CBV2016, D Long
0 85
Possibly the price has reached its Daily Cycle Low on Friday, July 22.
Expecting rebound to 50.50 in the first decade of August.
-------------------
First buy limit activated @ 45.72 (DMA200)
Another buy limit @ 44.54 (162% fibo of wave C of W formation / major weekly support)
-------------------
Rationale:
MA200 reached (Daily close confirmation)
Diagonal triangle formed, Bearish wave likely completed
(Weak) Bullish Price/Oscillator Divergence + buy area reached (based on previous DCLs)
Daily Sentiment Index @ 35% bulls
Expected DCL on July 21-26
-------------------------------
Daily close below 44.00 next week invalidates this idea.
First warning sign if daily close is below DMA200 or 46.90 resistance stands.
-------------------------------
Safe trades!
XAUUSD, D Long
1 187
Gold cemented a bottom price of 1045 at the end of last year, and since has made considerable gains - reaching 1375 earlier in the month. From the rise over the past few months, Elliott Wave would dictate that we're in an impulsive wave 3.

I have an initial target of just under 1500 before November this year however either wave could be extended and hit higher prices.

We can see on the Stochastic RSI , there is a bullish divergence; and fundamentally speaking - there's been an increase in demand for precious metals as economic uncertainty continues, with gold-0.55% playing the part of a safe-haven for wealth.

In my opinion, Gold is a very attractive buy right now.

Happy trading!
USOIL, 240 Long
2 118
USOIL IS IN A DOWN TREND CORRECTION
LOOKS LIKE THE CORRECTION IS ABOUT TO END.
WAIT FOR THE BREAKOUT TO UPSIDE BEFORE ANY BUYS
THANK YOU
KEEP FOLLOWING AND SUPPORT
HAPPY WEEKEND!
XAUUSD, D Neutral
1 272
Its been very evident that even the strongest bears went positive since BREXIT on Precious Metals for intermittent rally or pullback from the supercycles as we call.

Everybody would agree that 1300-1310 would serve as strong demand area and resistance from previous tops especially March 2015 highs. The breach woud open the gate to 12XX and bear would take thier chance to push down as much as possible it can. Probably 1250-1211 would be bears targeting for.

On current Daily Chart I see huge range play from 1300-1330 for next whole week and I believe this the last bear week and will make perfect Bull Flag on weekly. We have bottomed the STOCH and RSI hover around 48-50 on daily.

So Huge Sideways possible within range till 27 July, Yellen still might not give green signal to rate hikes in august as statisticians or Economists would treat previous two NFP data as Anomaolies and would wait for more evidence on job reports.

Dovish stand likely to induce rally in all PM and would again try to target previous tops and 1375-1390 Region. I have charted all bull possiblites, if not anyone of those being played, God help the bulls !! because it will dive down so hard that even bear has not imagine.

Good Luck for Next Week

Happy Trading.
USDJPY, 60 Long
0 93
#if it possible, short first then long#
as my post latter for expecting bullish continuation https://new.tradingview.com/chart/USDJPY/9danIYN6-Crab/, then at now what look a like the JPY is in correction mode? we'll see soon. for me as long as the price stay above 10375 - 10315 support level, I thought is good to look for Long trades.

hope you have wonderful weekend.
EURUSD, 60 Long
3 337
Wolfe Wave, Black Swan, Emerging Cypher C wave... Good Luck :D
EURUSD, 240 Neutral
1 99
Solid stricture beneathe it, good luck.
BTCUSD, W Neutral
6 168
Bitcoin / USD --- simple lines
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