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Auto-critic First
- Many people recently told me " you keep shorting a market that only goes up"
- That is partially true but is also making an implicit false statement.
(1) I have been looking for shorts since Jun14 (had some success, took profit in the right places and also got stopped tactically a few times).
(2) I am still holding the view that there is a top building process but i did not know what shape it would take (it is becoming clearer now and i will explain my view lower in this post)
(3) In the mean time the volatility has increased and although it appears the market keeps going up, overall the progress has only been 7% from top to top with many corrections of 5% and one correction of 10% within.

Going back to the market only:
- Since June 14, I "know" some sort of correction is coming (flat, fast, slow, volatile?).
- It could have had different shapes:
(a) Fast and swift 20% correction with bottoming process and resumption of the rally.
(b) A longer topping process with more shallow corrections and new high which may lead to a more lasting top (counter intuitively)

- It seems that the market has elected for (b) in the US while Europe is making its catchup.
- The Volatility Regime is interesting: volatility reduction until Jul14 and then got very agitated with no ability to break lower.
- I think the last move up is a squeeze that will leave space for another 10% correction in the next 8 weeks.
- Then i foresee, SPX may enjoy a last rally of 12/14% from 1900 which may be slow/steady over 3 months (a more sanguine rally than the Nov14 one).
- This last top in july15 (the 3rd one over 12 months) may leave the market subject to a longer/calmer/deeper correction into year end (a move where the volatility would increase gradually marking acceptance of the new price paradigm)

Conclusion in short:
- My view is the current new top is a bull trap and is part of a triple top in the second top which is forming since November 2014.
- Risk to that base scenario: some more drift up for 1/4 weeks up to 2140/2160 (europe will not allow i think).
- Whatever happens, given the posture on Dax, Nasdaq, Biotech... a correction is due in the next 8 weeks.

It is close to impossible to short tops without bearing 3/4% adverse moves over 3/5 weeks.
it is tricky because either you short small (30/40% size, that is probably the right thing to do) or you deal with options which can be eroded in theta if there is resilience.

My trading stance:
- 3 weeks ago i went short through 2000/1930 march put spread (will be a close call) and added 20% short via future.
- Now, after 3 weeks, and the market having gone up, I have added 20% short.
- The position is bleeding a bit but that was part of the game plan and I think it will perform either very well if a collapse occurs in the next 3 weeks or decently if after.

Note1: I am not holding short against a market that can make moves of 10% vertically. There is a market structure that prevents that when it comes close to the red line which only allows for drifts that are manageable (the situation was very different in Europe and that is why i have largely refrained from shorts on the DAX/ESTX).

Note2: With the latest move in Europe, the US / EUROPE posture is in better sync now.

I am a swing trader. To enjoy the honey, you need to bear some bee bites.

Don t forget the time perception, I noticed:
- People forgive me more for being wrong 5% in 2 days where i stop rather than 2% over 4 weeks where i hold my position and repeat myself.

I foresee some nice swings going forward.

Best,
Yacine Kanoun

The last few days were very strong and came as a surprise in posture where all indices could have corrected.

The correction is still pending and could happen any time although grinding higher is very possible now that the motion is in place.

The blue trajectory is just speculation for now.

As per my previous trade with stop 10400 on close - today it worked. let's see monday.

Hey gang, lot's of dollar strength today and after big moves we typically see some relief. Below is a link to my weekly trading video where I'll walk you through the 3 different opportunities that the EURUSD will offer us to get long.

"What The Internet Won't Tell You" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kUA_hZ3DaNY&feature=youtu.be

Gold been tough for longs in the last 3 weeks.

The last chance is probably here.

Long 20% 1213 stop 1175 on close.

.

We are in a consoliadation phase. Let the market decide which way to go and buy/sell the breakout.
Possible targets are on the chart. Atleast 33% profit within a month after breakout is possible.

Are you ready ? : ]

ABCD patterns repeating, if we confirm escape velocity from the trend line to the upside, another ABCD completion looking good, then green arrow down, and repeat yet again? Top long term trend resistance at D, but red or blue? we will see. IMO.

except from grinding higher, SPX is going to find it very difficult to climb significantly higher in the next 5 weeks.

In this chart I decided to focus on timing momentum via the use of fundamental events.
These are the pieces of information the market will be expecting before deciding in its direction.
The events in red are the ones that will create the strongest volatility when announced, non-farm payrolls and the interest rate decision by the BoE.
Smaller news mostly have an impact on retail traders who create the small momentum surges we see here, while the larger timeframe trader (institutions and large speculators) continue in the direction they had established before, which created the trend in the first place.
Small surges of supply create the peaks and troughs, but paradigm shifts will be fueled by fundamental events, observable in the chart as well.
As long as the 1.54 level holds, and if we see price move away from it, upwards, I expect cable to rally further, easily reaching 1.58 in the short term.
Let's see how this unfolds, shall we?

Breaking out from a 5 wave Symmetrical Triangle(down median bias), clearing 20-50 sma, downtrend_line(s), above/at 50%. RSI at 55, clearing horizontal resistance.

Trading is tough here except with tight stop (which are likely taken away)

I would buy again if trades below 43

AAPL is now worth over $700 Billion. The company had a record quarter ( understatement) thanks in part to sales of their iPhone 6 . The return on the stock this month is ~ 10.3 %.

Apple will hold an event in a few weeks to introduce new products. You can expect more detail and official launch date for the Apple watch , Macbook air "2", and perhaps an 12.9" iPad ( running full OS X ??) .

REUTERS reports that the tech giant asked its Asian suppliers to make 6 million units of its three Apple Watch models. At a starting price of $349 , the Apple watch is quite expensive and may be a concern for some investors. Can Apple really sell a watch that needs a different charger AND needs to be charged EVERY night ? o_O , only time will tell.

If the Apple Watch is a success , this could potentially add approx $ 5 billion/quarter. In any case , Apple remains a solid long positions, and may reach $150 by the end of the year , as many have suggested. Still long.

Cheers

Algo

When I see a stock go from 2.6 times sales to 6.4 times sales while revenues have fallen from $21 billion to $16 billion, you can tell that investors are hoping for something big coming down the road.

For now, I'll look for a trip down to the lower end of the rising regression channel.

Risk - $64 or $65. Target $53-$54.

Tim 4:25PM EST Feb 27, 2015

Triangle Closing In, fifth wave potential down move, after reversal at upper bound and horizontal resistance, 61.8%, lower highs, potential (abcde) pattern, with brake_down AB=CD targeted area. RSI geometry break_down potential.

After the steep decline yesterday I was wondering why this pair stopped where it did and I found 3 reasons for it.

- A bullish Gartley pattern
- A bullish Butterfly pattern where D is the 1.618 extension of AB
- A previous gap that can act as support

Furthermore, the Fib extensions for both patterns (1.272 for Gartley and 1.618 for Butterfly align nicely)

I have been publishing multiple forecasts for the past few days, the price indeed reached my targeted resistance area at the 50-days SMA and 0.7620 before forming a bearish pin bar, which suggest a potential setback and resumption of the overall bear trend. For previous analysis check the related links below..

I already placed my limit sell order at 0.7575 level.

Thank you for reading , be one of the first members of my new trading portal, check my new website http://thefxchannel.com/ , vote and subscribe. Thank you


Trading Criteria:
1. Trades are taken in two units
2. First unit would be closed at first target
3. Stop loss is then moved to break-even
4. Second unit would be closed at second target
Notes:
5) If 90 percent of first target is reached I move stop loss to breakeven.
6) If 90 percent of first target is reached without triggering entry I cancel the trade.
7) Remember: Losing is a main part of the game
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Good luck, keep your stops tight..
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Technician