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Launch Chart
21 hours ago
GBPUSD, 240 Long
33 774
A bullish bat pattern has completed on this pair and a .382 retracement would take us right back to the previous support shelf that has been proven strong and that should now become resistance. Hence I don't think that we can get more out of this than a retest of that level.

As it is a bat pattern, RR is good, stops below 1.5189, I would even suggest a 1 ATR stop @ 1.5170 as we are trading a pattern on the 240 chart.

Good luck and may the pips be with you.
20 hours ago
USDCAD, 240 Neutral
4 285
This is an update to the trade idea linked under Related Ideas, where I had spotted a bearish Gartley pattern on the 4H timeframe of this pair. For a further description of that trade I refer to the link.

Since then the price printed a new C point for this pattern, widening the potential reversal zone (due to the shift of the AB=CD pattern which is a key harmonic level). Price has now travelled 50% from C towards the (updated) reversal zone.

The key characteristics of the trade have not changed. There are still 134 pips to be made (if this pair follows the script) and the trade still has a reward – risk ratio of 2.0!
21 hours ago
GBPJPY, 240 Long
1 259
A further move down of this pair could bring us to the completion of a bulish bat pattern. As always, bat patterns have a pretty good RR ratio, target 1 being approx 1.5 and target 2 approx. 2.5 times the pips we risk.

As this is a setup on the 240 chart, I use a 1ATR stop loss under X.

* UPDATE : This pattern has now completed
6 hours ago
SPY, D Short
0 216
Here's a new DISCOVERY - to start the uptrend from the lowest high (not necessarily the lowest low). With trend calculated in this more logical way, it makes everything get CRYSTAL CLEAR in the SPY here. This observation makes the uptrend start at an earlier date, which puts a few more days at the mode for the uptrend and allows a little more advance and then watch this:

1. The red box on the downtrend formed a 15 period mode around the 202 level, which FAILED to create the necessary drop to the 193 area. So, what did the market do? It rallied for 15 periods once it spent an entire session above 202. Look at the red arrow with 15 on top. That is when the failure-time expired.

2. The purple box is the uptrend from the "LOWEST HIGH" in January. From that point, 10 days formed around the 205 level and set up the rally for 10 periods starting on the 11th (marked with a purple arrow UP). NOTE HOW 10 EXPIRED RIGHT AT THE HIGHEST LOW OF THE RALLY. That is excellent.

3. The blue box is a mode that was forming that would launch us into the next advance, but it failed to build to 10 or 11 to continue the accumulation and that implies that the buyers have run out of power and the sellers are in control.

4. The purple box FSILED TO REACH 215 as implied by the accumulation - so that means the buyers are weak here and need to be tested.

5. NOTE my proprietary RangeMove (RgMov) indicator which is FLASHING A VERY OMINOUS DANGER SIGNAL because it has gone to a 2-month LOW while the price action is very close to a 2-month high. Why is this happening and what does it mean? It means that lately, the price action has been mostly on the downside. If you look at the price action since Feb 17th you will notice that mostly the entire day of trading has been on the downside. It gaps down, and then trades up from there, but the net-net of it is that the trading action is to the downside. That IMPLIES heavy selling by someone. It could be anyone at this point, we don't really know.

6. NOTE the Range Expansion to the downside today and on Tuesday. These are signs that the "PATH OF LEAST RESISTANCE" is DOWN.

So everyone, there is support down at the last mode at 205, then at the 15 period mode at 202. If it punches through there then look for 193, which was implied in the last decline.

This is quite a collection of events collaborating the decline we are in at the moment. STAY TUNED!!!
23 hours ago
TSLA, D Long
1 228
There are many variables shown on this graph, the most important one is the fact that TSLA is at the lowest PSR (Price-to-Sales Ratio) going back to the summer of 2013 when it bottomed near 6 times sales. TSLA is now at 7.9 times sales and could very well be suffering from the new round of cars at the Geneva Auto Show where the Volkswagen Diesel Electric looks stunning in both styling and raw power from dual electric motors and relatively low cost to the good old Model-S and Model-D. There is nothing like good old fashioned competition in the marketplace. Tesla is facing it from all fronts and investors are nervous. For now, until profits roll in, and until the Model-X (gull-wing SUV crossover) is sold, TSLA is just "holding on".

What I'm seeing here is that TSLA is in a confirmed downtrend and it has fallen a similar percentage amount as it had in the fall of 2013 (See -40% drop) and the spring of 2014 (See the -34% drop) with its current 37% drop off of the high back in September which happened after a great earnings report and a string of analyst initiates and upgrades and very high targets set. The current correction has seen almost 14 days in a row where volume and price range expanded on the downside signifying strong selling by investors and traders. That kind of continuous selling should be alerting us to look for a bottom down here somewhere, which is why I have this as a "LONG" idea here.

The old level of valuation isn't holding at 10 times sales, so it is trying to find somewhere down here to hold.

Call me a die-hard fan of Tesla as I know I'd like to own one. If every one of my subscribers here would just send Tesla $1 each month, then I could lease 3 or 4 of them. One for me and the rest for you, in a lottery of my lucky subscribers. TradingView, can you manage that project for me? (I'm kind of kidding, but I'd love to see that happen).

Cheers.

Tim
March 5, 2015 11:35PM EST 200.63 last
1 day ago
USDCAD, W Short
3 337
. USDCAD should do a correction.
ROC gives us the signal. Which is currently in the overbought zone.
19 hours ago
EURUSD, 240 Short
0 201
Price reached the T1 and go throw it and back test T1 target and could not
break above to back test the 1st break out level more down side expected now to reach the T2 zone
at 1.0900 - 1.8400 Levels
21 hours ago
GBPAUD, 240 Long
10 227
Maybe a tad late on publishing this one as the pattern has already completed and we already saw some upwards price action, But ... we could see a double bottom formation here giving us another change to enter this long trade with a very good Risk/Reward ratio. Something to keep an eye on if it fits your trading rules.

If it does not go back into the Potential Reversal Zone I stay away from it as it would mess up the RR.

Comments welcome. Good luck and may the pips be with you !
1 day ago
ESP35, D Neutral
4 229
Watch-out España traders, the IBEX is challenging the major key long term sideways resistance or ceiling. Typically, in sideways markets, we expect price to reverse to the downside. However, this time might be different, as the price test the level for sixth time. The latest test(March 2) was followed by a minor pullback and a bullish pin bar.

I would think twice before going short at that resistance for now. why? For the first time , the ECB is pumping money for free with its new asset purchase program. History and the FED have taught us what happens to equities when central banks go full throttle.

We might see a reactive correction but i advise waiting for a candlestick confirmation for such scenario and look only for limited downside potential.

A breakout above 11235 resistance with at least a weekly closing would confirm the bullish breakout. I wont suggest targets for this scenario as this idea is just a general opinion...

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Technician
10 hours ago
USDJPY, D Long
6 189
With King Dolla Strength and the decent NFP print I fomoed myself in at 120.1 before this blew up to 121+ !!!!

However as our resident bear Peter Schiff pointed out "The number of Americans not in the labor force surged to 98.9 million, a new record high as the participation rate dropped to 62.8%".

Still it didn't stop the DXY making nice gains today. The trade is risk free now with trailing stops set.

Let the Nikkei be your guide here.
13 hours ago
USDJPY, D Short
1 256
After positive fundamental news from US and a strong rally we can expect some retracement.
This bat could work very well
The last resistance from W1 and M1 will be hard to break so i will place SL above.
Good luck.
17 hours ago
IBB, W Neutral
3 77
Although there could be a correction in between, it may not be over.

The top could be at the end of the summer around 420.

That would complete a 640% rally since 2009. Remarkable.

The final stages of such rallies can be asymptotic and overshoot.. That could be in the next few month (Maybe after an intermediary correction).
4 hours ago
SPY, D Neutral
0 92
If you look back historically, this chart has been a reliable indicator for divergences.

RATIO*
19 hours ago
SPX500, D Short
2 253

This is rather subjective and there are different ways to look at it. This is the count I feel the most comfortable with (This is not Elliott).

I think SPX is awaiting a IV and a V.

The IV awaited is to be coupled with II (Sep12/Nov12: 11%, 8 weeks)

Including the correction and the rally, the 09 rally could have another 6 months to go.

Anyway. which ever count you use, the apex is becoming very narrow and it is unlikely SPX is going to respect that many month to 2200.

A decisive break of the cone is imminent - Question of weeks. This is often the case in wave IV before a V outside of the cone.
18 hours ago
GCJ2015, D Short
11 91
Gold bear trend has resumed in Feb15 and in now well established. Shorting at current market price (1193.0) and targeting 1150.0 (mid march 15)
22 hours ago
EURNZD, 240 Short
4 147
All-time lows (at least the ones charted on TradingView) have been broken yesterday and price action went for a retest of that level. (green dotted line).

It is reasonable to expect price to continue the downwards trend given the QE measures and an "ideal" AB=CD pattern in the making.

There are several ways we can enter this trade :

- at market : stops would have to go above 1.4920 giving the retrace to previous low an less than 1/1 RR ratio
- wait for the formation of a double top, and wait for confirmation of a descent - in which case we can put our stops above the little top and improve our RR ratio
- wait for the formation of a 2618 pattern (double top, break below neckline and .618 retracement of previous down move) - the most conservative way.

Maybe it's not the best option to enter it right before the weekend, so I'd advise to give it a wait and see on Monday opening what the market has done and if it is still a valid opportunity.

Good luck and may the pips be with you !
11 hours ago
XAUUSD, W Neutral
2 223

The next 3% dictate the market. Up or Down.

It is not dead yet, it could jump still but if trades decisively through 1170, it would be ugly.

Above 1250, it could rally hard.

Note:
The move today was eurusd driven.
I see eurusd move down floored at 1.06 for the the next few weeks.
The move is also coupled with some correction hints on SP500 which could end up supporting Gold.

Again, there is no way to know here for sure, it is just very pivotal.
1 day ago
NZDUSD, 240 Long
24 859
It's been a very slow week for me, but luckily Jason is picking up the slack. Going into Friday's Job Report I have no intention of entering any new positions aside from this potential bullish bat pattern on the Kiwi. NZDUSD is in a very interesting position as our HTF trend has bounced off previous structure resistance, yet our LTF trend has recently created a NSH and is retesting previous structure support. Consolidation perhaps?? Hope so since that would work well for pattern traders. VERY IMPORTANT. IF this trade does not trigger before tomorrow mornings top-down analysis THEN I will remove all orders as I want no parts of the crap shoot that is the Non-farm Payroll report.

As always it's Thursday so that also means the release of my weekly WEEKEND REVIEW video. (link at bottom)) In this week's video "Dollars Don't Matter" I talk about this NZDUSD trade, how we can help each other out in the initial phases of backtesting an updated version of an inside bar breakout strategy that i used to trade, and of course an update of how Jason and i have down int he Syndicate. here's a clue...I haven't done much lol

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UvH5rMqPKuo&list=UUVveEks3MWZqOsvzTF_LGQg
Lastly make sure you clear your schedules for early April ;-)
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