()

On the left is our $266 high in 2013, on the right is our current volatile drop to $166 flipped upside down. A month ago I made a thread about how I believed we were in the middle of a shorting\bearish bubble, posted here:
http://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/2sbb0q/welcome_to_a_shorting_bubble/

And today, with our 20\20 retrospect goggles on, we can see that having formed out in the charts. These moves are partly harmonic\fractal because of the nature of markets to find a equilibrium, but I believe it shows the bubble cycle mentality that is so common in Bitcoin. In the past, the only way to participate in the price action was to buy. There was no ability to short on any exchange until basically 2014, where we saw the advent of the bear market. This means that the bears, like the bulls, need to have their chance at the extremely volatile, bubble-like nature of Bitcoin, and undergo a shorting bubble just like the bulls had a longing bubble.

I threw the ascending wedge pattern in there for shits and giggles, but I honestly do not know where this consolidation pattern will lead us (as my related idea below shows). I just find it fascinating how Bitcoin loves to repeat it's patterns; it loves it's fractals.

I used the April 2013 bubble because it fit the shape I was looking for more in form than the Nov 2013 one did where we twin-topped (inb4 accusations of form-fitting). If you scroll to Nov on the left chart then you can see what I am talking about, I added a few of my markings for comparison.

Let me know what you think! I'm liking the historical analysis "series" I've been doing, for some reason I keep finding these things. Like, comment, and follow!

PREDICTIVE/FORECASTING SYSTEM:

1 - 575.65 - 27 FEB 2015

and

2 - 405.95 - 27 FEB 2015


SIMPLE MARKET GEOMETRIES:

Large simple symmetrical a-b = c-d patterns aim for similar vicinity.

1 - The largest in light blue projects into the Model's range of 575.65 to 405.95

2 - The smallest in light purple projects slight above the Model's first target of 575.95

Averaged projection of the blue terminal and purple terminal levels is (623.69 + 501.17)/2 = 562.43, or slightly right at the Model's first target of 575.95


OCCULT MARKET GEOMETRIES:

Momental lines (representing dominant rated of change in price throughout any timeframe, running independent from channel lines) can be seen in the chart as running from bottom left to upper right. This is to contrast with a long-term bearish channel which is running from top-left to bottom-right.

These momental lines are likely to remain in force in this case, as in any other cases, imposing their omni-present forces on price, ... in this particular case acting as an overhead resistance.


OVERALL:

Price action is likely to seek a denouement in the shaded area. The arrow shows the probable direction of price. Invalidation of this would need to meet two important tests:

1 - Transgression of the momental line

and

2 - Committed accession above the 1944 level, whereby price would Break-Across + Close-Across ("BACA").


Stay tuned,


David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Denver, Colorado - USA


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Twitter:
@4xForecaster

Linked-In:
David Alcindor
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1. Trading is not a get rich quick scheme. it is a normal investment that gets you return on capital.

Did you ever hear of a trader making 100% percent return per month on a consistent manner? If you did, did you see a proof of that?

Trading professionally with proper money management would likely get you a return of few percents a month, from my personal experience a 3-5% return on capital per month is a very realistic number.

So if you’re that kind of person who wants to “make a killing” trading please reconsider your expectations

2. You should be well-capitalized. Small accounts will probably burn you.

This point is correlated to the first one, let me illustrate by an example:

Suppose that you have a 30k trading account, according to the 3-5 percent return per month rule; that would give you 1000-$1500 return per month, which is relatively a very good number.

Now let’s assume that you have a 5k account, according to the 3-5 percent rule, that would return 150-$250 per month.

In the 5k example, the return would likely be unsatisfying for someone looking to trade for living. Would it be for you? Wouldn't you break your money management rules and take more risk to increase that return?

3. Technical Analysis doesn't work all the time. Assumption we make will always have a percentage of failure. The main goal is to keep you risk limited, your targets bigger than your risk for consistent profit on the long run.

4. Trading is not about forecasting the market. Do not try to be smart and always forecast where markets are headed. What a trader does is, wait for the market to GIVE him certain conditions that validate a trade. (Don’t trade under the market rules, trade under your rules). Do you feel sometimes that your lost and don’t know what to do ? its probably because of this. This is very important, and helps avoid getting lost in the process..

5. If you did use stop loss on your trades within the past year, but you didn't and took excessive risk only on one trade, this single trade might wipe out all of the profits you gained through the year.

How many times did you ignore your stop loss convincing your self that you will close at better price, it may have worked sometimes, but what if the price goes against you more and more, are you mentally strong enough and able to close at a bigger loss? you probably won’t, and end up with a margin call.

6. Don’t over analyze. Over analysis and complicating your tools will lead to confusion and not necessarily efficient.

7. Ignore your bias, trades require technical evidence, 3,4 or 5 conditions that occur concurrently.

8. Always use a top to down analysis approach, from the higher time frame to the lower time frame. The higher the time frame the more strong and invulnerable the trend is, and the more strong and invulnerable the support and resistance levels are.

9. Trading setups that occur within the context of the trend usually turn more profitable than those against the trend.

10. Don’t give up when you encounter a losing streak, yeah it can go up to 10 losing trades… don’t worry it’s normal in trading.

Hope you found it useful and enjoyable... If you have points that you would add to this, I would be happy to hear them, please comment and discuss..

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Technician

My previous trade failed and was stopped out (https://www.tradingview.com/v/SkmOygMy/). However, i am giving this setup another shot at a better level with a better risk-reward, as the price retested areas near the bottom of the range at 47.40, forming a pin bar.

Crude oil might be heading towards the top of the recent sideways range, the price has broken above the main falling trend line(thick dashed line), its usual that we see price move in sideways bias following a trend line breakout as the supply demand equilibrium might have changed, and the previous downside bias could be changing to neutral.

Thank you for reading , be one of the first members of my new trading portal, check my new website http://thefxchannel.com/ , vote and subscribe. Thank you


Trading Criteria:
1. Trades are taken in two units
2. First unit would be closed at first target
3. Stop loss is then moved to break-even
4. Second unit would be closed at second target
Notes:
5) If 90 percent of first target is reached I move stop loss to breakeven.
6) If 90 percent of first target is reached without triggering entry I cancel the trade.
7) Remember: Losing is a main part of the game
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Good luck, keep your stops tight..
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My best regards
Technician