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Launch Chart
19 hours ago
BTCUSD, D Neutral
9 1166
On the left is our $266 high in 2013, on the right is our current volatile drop to $166 flipped upside down. A month ago I made a thread about how I believed we were in the middle of a shorting\bearish bubble, posted here:
http://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/2sbb0q/welcome_to_a_shorting_bubble/

And today, with our 20\20 retrospect goggles on, we can see that having formed out in the charts. These moves are partly harmonic\fractal because of the nature of markets to find a equilibrium, but I believe it shows the bubble cycle mentality that is so common in Bitcoin. In the past, the only way to participate in the price action was to buy. There was no ability to short on any exchange until basically 2014, where we saw the advent of the bear market. This means that the bears, like the bulls, need to have their chance at the extremely volatile, bubble-like nature of Bitcoin, and undergo a shorting bubble just like the bulls had a longing bubble.

I threw the ascending wedge pattern in there for shits and giggles, but I honestly do not know where this consolidation pattern will lead us (as my related idea below shows). I just find it fascinating how Bitcoin loves to repeat it's patterns; it loves it's fractals.

I used the April 2013 bubble because it fit the shape I was looking for more in form than the Nov 2013 one did where we twin-topped (inb4 accusations of form-fitting). If you scroll to Nov on the left chart then you can see what I am talking about, I added a few of my markings for comparison.

Let me know what you think! I'm liking the historical analysis "series" I've been doing, for some reason I keep finding these things. Like, comment, and follow!
16 hours ago
EURUSD, 240 Long
29 970
Hey gang, lot's of dollar strength today and after big moves we typically see some relief. Below is a link to my weekly trading video where I'll walk you through the 3 different opportunities that the EURUSD will offer us to get long.

"What The Internet Won't Tell You" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kUA_hZ3DaNY&feature=youtu.be
8 hours ago
EURUSD, 240 Long
12 648
After the steep decline yesterday I was wondering why this pair stopped where it did and I found 3 reasons for it.

- A bullish Gartley pattern
- A bullish Butterfly pattern where D is the 1.618 extension of AB
- A previous gap that can act as support

Furthermore, the Fib extensions for both patterns (1.272 for Gartley and 1.618 for Butterfly align nicely)

8 hours ago
BTCCNY, D Short
7 443
PREDICTIVE/FORECASTING SYSTEM:

1 - 575.65 - 27 FEB 2015

and

2 - 405.95 - 27 FEB 2015


SIMPLE MARKET GEOMETRIES:

Large simple symmetrical a-b = c-d patterns aim for similar vicinity.

1 - The largest in light blue projects into the Model's range of 575.65 to 405.95

2 - The smallest in light purple projects slight above the Model's first target of 575.95

Averaged projection of the blue terminal and purple terminal levels is (623.69 + 501.17)/2 = 562.43, or slightly right at the Model's first target of 575.95


OCCULT MARKET GEOMETRIES:

Momental lines (representing dominant rated of change in price throughout any timeframe, running independent from channel lines) can be seen in the chart as running from bottom left to upper right. This is to contrast with a long-term bearish channel which is running from top-left to bottom-right.

These momental lines are likely to remain in force in this case, as in any other cases, imposing their omni-present forces on price, ... in this particular case acting as an overhead resistance.


OVERALL:

Price action is likely to seek a denouement in the shaded area. The arrow shows the probable direction of price. Invalidation of this would need to meet two important tests:

1 - Transgression of the momental line

and

2 - Committed accession above the 1944 level, whereby price would Break-Across + Close-Across ("BACA").


Stay tuned,


David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Denver, Colorado - USA


-----
Twitter:
@4xForecaster

Linked-In:
David Alcindor
-----


.
8 hours ago
NZDUSD, D Short
6 494
I have been publishing multiple forecasts for the past few days, the price indeed reached my targeted resistance area at the 50-days SMA and 0.7620 before forming a bearish pin bar, which suggest a potential setback and resumption of the overall bear trend. For previous analysis check the related links below..

I already placed my limit sell order at 0.7575 level.

Thank you for reading , be one of the first members of my new trading portal, check my new website http://thefxchannel.com/ , vote and subscribe. Thank you


Trading Criteria:
1. Trades are taken in two units
2. First unit would be closed at first target
3. Stop loss is then moved to break-even
4. Second unit would be closed at second target
Notes:
5) If 90 percent of first target is reached I move stop loss to breakeven.
6) If 90 percent of first target is reached without triggering entry I cancel the trade.
7) Remember: Losing is a main part of the game
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Good luck, keep your stops tight..
https://twitter.com/thefxchannel
https://www.facebook.com/thefxchannel
https://plus.google.com/+Thefxchannel0
My best regards
Technician
18 hours ago
NZDUSD, D Short
1 607
The NZD/USD has been in a significant downtrend since July of 2014 as the USD strength continues to rule the FX Market.

We have seen quite a dramatic pullback within the NZD/USD that has now set us up for an excellent selling opportunity to trade back in line with the overall downtrend.

We have 8 factors of confluence on the daily chart that support a bearish bias.

1. Trading With The Trend
2. Pinbar Sell Signal
3. Double Top Formation
4. Rejection of 50 EMA
5. Rejection of .5-.618 Fib Retracement
6. Rejection of Key Resistance at .7600 (Previous Key Support)
7. Rejection of Descending Channel Trendline
8. Bearish Wedge Continuation Pattern

We have two entry options available to use, both offering great risk-reward ratios.

I expect this market to breakdown and target the next KEY weekly support at 72 cents. Breaking below 72 cents opens up the gates for 70 cents as the next downside target.
3 days ago
EURUSD, D Long
147 6230
1. Trading is not a get rich quick scheme. it is a normal investment that gets you return on capital.

Did you ever hear of a trader making 100% percent return per month on a consistent manner? If you did, did you see a proof of that?

Trading professionally with proper money management would likely get you a return of few percents a month, from my personal experience a 3-5% return on capital per month is a very realistic number.

So if you’re that kind of person who wants to “make a killing” trading please reconsider your expectations

2. You should be well-capitalized. Small accounts will probably burn you.

This point is correlated to the first one, let me illustrate by an example:

Suppose that you have a 30k trading account, according to the 3-5 percent return per month rule; that would give you 1000-$1500 return per month, which is relatively a very good number.

Now let’s assume that you have a 5k account, according to the 3-5 percent rule, that would return 150-$250 per month.

In the 5k example, the return would likely be unsatisfying for someone looking to trade for living. Would it be for you? Wouldn't you break your money management rules and take more risk to increase that return?

3. Technical Analysis doesn't work all the time. Assumption we make will always have a percentage of failure. The main goal is to keep you risk limited, your targets bigger than your risk for consistent profit on the long run.

4. Trading is not about forecasting the market. Do not try to be smart and always forecast where markets are headed. What a trader does is, wait for the market to GIVE him certain conditions that validate a trade. (Don’t trade under the market rules, trade under your rules). Do you feel sometimes that your lost and don’t know what to do ? its probably because of this. This is very important, and helps avoid getting lost in the process..

5. If you did use stop loss on your trades within the past year, but you didn't and took excessive risk only on one trade, this single trade might wipe out all of the profits you gained through the year.

How many times did you ignore your stop loss convincing your self that you will close at better price, it may have worked sometimes, but what if the price goes against you more and more, are you mentally strong enough and able to close at a bigger loss? you probably won’t, and end up with a margin call.

6. Don’t over analyze. Over analysis and complicating your tools will lead to confusion and not necessarily efficient.

7. Ignore your bias, trades require technical evidence, 3,4 or 5 conditions that occur concurrently.

8. Always use a top to down analysis approach, from the higher time frame to the lower time frame. The higher the time frame the more strong and invulnerable the trend is, and the more strong and invulnerable the support and resistance levels are.

9. Trading setups that occur within the context of the trend usually turn more profitable than those against the trend.

10. Don’t give up when you encounter a losing streak, yeah it can go up to 10 losing trades… don’t worry it’s normal in trading.

Hope you found it useful and enjoyable... If you have points that you would add to this, I would be happy to hear them, please comment and discuss..

Be one of the first members of my new trading portal, check my new website http://thefxchannel.com/ , vote and subscribe. Thank you

https://twitter.com/thefxchannel
https://www.facebook.com/thefxchannel
https://plus.google.com/+Thefxchannel0
My best regards
Technician
13 hours ago
USOIL, 240 Long
0 402
My previous trade failed and was stopped out (https://www.tradingview.com/v/SkmOygMy/). However, i am giving this setup another shot at a better level with a better risk-reward, as the price retested areas near the bottom of the range at 47.40, forming a pin bar.

Crude oil might be heading towards the top of the recent sideways range, the price has broken above the main falling trend line(thick dashed line), its usual that we see price move in sideways bias following a trend line breakout as the supply demand equilibrium might have changed, and the previous downside bias could be changing to neutral.

Thank you for reading , be one of the first members of my new trading portal, check my new website http://thefxchannel.com/ , vote and subscribe. Thank you


Trading Criteria:
1. Trades are taken in two units
2. First unit would be closed at first target
3. Stop loss is then moved to break-even
4. Second unit would be closed at second target
Notes:
5) If 90 percent of first target is reached I move stop loss to breakeven.
6) If 90 percent of first target is reached without triggering entry I cancel the trade.
7) Remember: Losing is a main part of the game
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Good luck, keep your stops tight..
https://twitter.com/thefxchannel
https://www.facebook.com/thefxchannel
https://plus.google.com/+Thefxchannel0
My best regards
Technician
7 hours ago
BTCUSD, D Long
0 335
Breaking out from a 5 wave Symmetrical Triangle(down median bias), clearing 20-50 sma, downtrend_line(s), above/at 50%. RSI at 55, clearing horizontal resistance.
8 hours ago
EURAUD, 240 Neutral
7 115
2 bat patterns on EURAUD together with a current downtrend of lower highs lower lows might indicate that there is some further downside to this pair.
We might be looking at a reversal around the completion of the red bat pattern (structure present) or even a little deeper to complete the blue one ...

Are these patterns going to complete ? Nobody knows ... but I'll certainly keep an eye on it
6 hours ago
EURUSD, 60 Short
1 368
EUR/USD has broken major support 1.1260(S1) ,this confirms short term bearishness and reach till 1.1100 cannot be ruled out .

On the upside minor resistance is around 1.12600 (R1 Support turned into resistance) and aby break above could open way for another test of 1.1300/1.1346 (200 day HMA).

Indicators (1 hour chart)
CCI (50) – Sell
CCI (14) – Sell
Ichimoku- Sell

Recommendation: Sell EUR/USD around 1.1260, SL 1.1305, Target 1.100.


10 hours ago
SPX500, W Neutral
8 148
except from grinding higher, SPX is going to find it very difficult to climb significantly higher in the next 5 weeks.
1 day ago
XAUUSD, 60 Short
18 897
Bear Gartley, Sorry for the lack of explanation earlier, but we found this while in the middle of my live trading room session. Essentially this is a bearish Gartley (which may have double topped by now) coming into previous structure. So for those looking to catch a move short.
20 hours ago
XAUUSD, M Short
1 198
XAUUSD Target: ~603
1 day ago
GBPUSD, D Neutral
5 505
If you start your analysis of GBPUSD at the low in January and walk forward from there and watch the mode build higher and higher, you can get an idea of how accumulation occurs and then use that accumulation to project both time and price.

Note how I have labeled all of the modes as the price has moved since the low and take note of how the largest time of 9, I placed a box around the price range from the first touch of the mode to the last touch of the mode. That range is then the accumulation range and you then look for a move above that mode equivalent to the accumulation range.

Note how there are 9-days at the mode around 1.54 and there was a 9-day rally which ended yesterday.

This is the way that I analyze the structure of the market. Realize that this is only daily time frame analysis.

Cheers.

Tim 9:58AM EST Feb 26, 2015 1.54151 last GBPUSD
22 hours ago
FX1!, D Short
0 63
Triangles A and B(abcde) Targets reached.
Elliot Wave 5, with potential ending diagonal Triangle.
1.618 extension levels(x 2) resistance.
RSI Toppish.
23 hours ago
BTCUSD, D Neutral
1 308
Honestly I have no idea I have done. An hour of extra time I decided to slap together this. A couple of 3D shapes and some indicators. Let us get right to it.

So, for the past 3-4 weeks I have been on a total bitcoin blackout. I have no idea what (still don't) news has gone on and had not looked at a BTC price checker. If it went mainstream that is the only way I knew about it. BTW, I did not see very much mainstream news or any mention on a TV show at all. Government 1 - Bitcoin 0.

Indicators
* Stoch RSI is being fun today. Other than being just above oversold it just seems to be breaking down. How far will be determined, but this market looks a bit stale.
* MACD - Been so far under the level that it hasn't seen the light of day just like Beijin hasn't seen the sun. Oh maybe we get there in time.
* Aroon - Expecting 400s? Well Aroon doesn't. Hardly stays high enough to warrant anything but a small hill. The hill, for now, is curving back down.
* PSAR - From my vantage it has no strength for anything. More likely to just go sideways at this point.

Overall, market down, sentiment mixed, triangles set, and trends established. 6 more weeks of winter I suppose. I guess you can look at the triangles as periods where the price spikes then does not for a short period afterwards.

Have fun and good luck trading.
1 day ago
AMZN, M Long
3 262
In order to make 10 times your money, sometimes you do have to risk 27% - 48% of your capital. Why? Because that is just what it takes to make a massive return on your capital. If you risk 50% to make 10 times your money, that is a 20:1 winning trade.

Look at the times when AMZN fell to roughly 2 times sales and had you purchased back in 2005-2006 in the 30's, you would have faced some deep drawdowns in the value of your shares, to the tune of 27% right off the bat and then several other large drawdowns along the way. But, in the end, that is the way that long term, huge gains are made in the stock market.

Note too that when AMZN gets up to near 3 times sales (PSR of 3) that sellers come out of the woodwork and slows down the price appreciation until the valuation can catch up.

I hope this is instructive for any of you who are interested in learning how to invest in the stock market. If you believe that you need to cut your losses at 7%, then you will find it very difficult to hold onto a 10X winner like this one, ever.

Cheers,

Tim
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