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Launch Chart
3 hours ago
BTCCNY, D Neutral
2 446
We are in a consoliadation phase. Let the market decide which way to go and buy/sell the breakout.
Possible targets are on the chart. Atleast 33% profit within a month after breakout is possible.

Are you ready ? : ]
7 hours ago
SPX500, W Short
13 231
Auto-critic First
- Many people recently told me " you keep shorting a market that only goes up"
- That is partially true but is also making an implicit false statement.
(1) I have been looking for shorts since Jun14 (had some success, took profit in the right places and also got stopped tactically a few times).
(2) I am still holding the view that there is a top building process but i did not know what shape it would take (it is becoming clearer now and i will explain my view lower in this post)
(3) In the mean time the volatility has increased and although it appears the market keeps going up, overall the progress has only been 7% from top to top with many corrections of 5% and one correction of 10% within.

Going back to the market only:
- Since June 14, I "know" some sort of correction is coming (flat, fast, slow, volatile?).
- It could have had different shapes:
(a) Fast and swift 20% correction with bottoming process and resumption of the rally.
(b) A longer topping process with more shallow corrections and new high which may lead to a more lasting top (counter intuitively)

- It seems that the market has elected for (b) in the US while Europe is making its catchup.
- The Volatility Regime is interesting: volatility reduction until Jul14 and then got very agitated with no ability to break lower.
- I think the last move up is a squeeze that will leave space for another 10% correction in the next 8 weeks.
- Then i foresee, SPX may enjoy a last rally of 12/14% from 1900 which may be slow/steady over 3 months (a more sanguine rally than the Nov14 one).
- This last top in july15 (the 3rd one over 12 months) may leave the market subject to a longer/calmer/deeper correction into year end (a move where the volatility would increase gradually marking acceptance of the new price paradigm)

Conclusion in short:
- My view is the current new top is a bull trap and is part of a triple top in the second top which is forming since November 2014.
- Risk to that base scenario: some more drift up for 1/4 weeks up to 2140/2160 (europe will not allow i think).
- Whatever happens, given the posture on Dax, Nasdaq, Biotech... a correction is due in the next 8 weeks.

It is close to impossible to short tops without bearing 3/4% adverse moves over 3/5 weeks.
it is tricky because either you short small (30/40% size, that is probably the right thing to do) or you deal with options which can be eroded in theta if there is resilience.

My trading stance:
- 3 weeks ago i went short through 2000/1930 march put spread (will be a close call) and added 20% short via future.
- Now, after 3 weeks, and the market having gone up, I have added 20% short.
- The position is bleeding a bit but that was part of the game plan and I think it will perform either very well if a collapse occurs in the next 3 weeks or decently if after.

Note1: I am not holding short against a market that can make moves of 10% vertically. There is a market structure that prevents that when it comes close to the red line which only allows for drifts that are manageable (the situation was very different in Europe and that is why i have largely refrained from shorts on the DAX/ESTX).

Note2: With the latest move in Europe, the US / EUROPE posture is in better sync now.

I am a swing trader. To enjoy the honey, you need to bear some bee bites.

Don t forget the time perception, I noticed:
- People forgive me more for being wrong 5% in 2 days where i stop rather than 2% over 4 weeks where i hold my position and repeat myself.

I foresee some nice swings going forward.

Yacine Kanoun
9 hours ago
BTCUSD, 120 Long
12 125
wave a is in progress as a smaller expanding diagonal. ((v)) is a zigzag so expect abc up to 320.86 to complete wave a of 5 of the larger expanding diagonal
15 hours ago
BTCUSD, 60 Long
2 8393
“There will come a time in your life when you lose something that matters to you. You'll fight for it and you won't win. But what really matters isn't the war you're waging, it's that you don't lose the person you are, in the midst of the battle.”
― J. Sterling, The Perfect Game

... Remember those words once I've taken your account from you.
22 hours ago
GER30, D Neutral
5 258
The last few days were very strong and came as a surprise in posture where all indices could have corrected.

The correction is still pending and could happen any time although grinding higher is very possible now that the motion is in place.

The blue trajectory is just speculation for now.

As per my previous trade with stop 10400 on close - today it worked. let's see monday.
1 day ago
7 859

1 - 575.65 - 27 FEB 2015


2 - 405.95 - 27 FEB 2015


Large simple symmetrical a-b = c-d patterns aim for similar vicinity.

1 - The largest in light blue projects into the Model's range of 575.65 to 405.95

2 - The smallest in light purple projects slight above the Model's first target of 575.95

Averaged projection of the blue terminal and purple terminal levels is (623.69 + 501.17)/2 = 562.43, or slightly right at the Model's first target of 575.95


Momental lines (representing dominant rated of change in price throughout any timeframe, running independent from channel lines) can be seen in the chart as running from bottom left to upper right. This is to contrast with a long-term bearish channel which is running from top-left to bottom-right.

These momental lines are likely to remain in force in this case, as in any other cases, imposing their omni-present forces on price, ... in this particular case acting as an overhead resistance.


Price action is likely to seek a denouement in the shaded area. The arrow shows the probable direction of price. Invalidation of this would need to meet two important tests:

1 - Transgression of the momental line


2 - Committed accession above the 1944 level, whereby price would Break-Across + Close-Across ("BACA").

Stay tuned,

David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Denver, Colorado - USA


David Alcindor

20 hours ago
6 282
Gold been tough for longs in the last 3 weeks.

The last chance is probably here.

Long 20% 1213 stop 1175 on close.
18 hours ago
AAPL, M Long
5 142
AAPL is now worth over $700 Billion. The company had a record quarter ( understatement) thanks in part to sales of their iPhone 6 . The return on the stock this month is ~ 10.3 %.

Apple will hold an event in a few weeks to introduce new products. You can expect more detail and official launch date for the Apple watch , Macbook air "2", and perhaps an 12.9" iPad ( running full OS X ??) .

REUTERS reports that the tech giant asked its Asian suppliers to make 6 million units of its three Apple Watch models. At a starting price of $349 , the Apple watch is quite expensive and may be a concern for some investors. Can Apple really sell a watch that needs a different charger AND needs to be charged EVERY night ? o_O , only time will tell.

If the Apple Watch is a success , this could potentially add approx $ 5 billion/quarter. In any case , Apple remains a solid long positions, and may reach $150 by the end of the year , as many have suggested. Still long.


18 hours ago
BMY, D Short
1 98
When I see a stock go from 2.6 times sales to 6.4 times sales while revenues have fallen from $21 billion to $16 billion, you can tell that investors are hoping for something big coming down the road.

For now, I'll look for a trip down to the lower end of the rising regression channel.

Risk - $64 or $65. Target $53-$54.

Tim 4:25PM EST Feb 27, 2015
21 hours ago
USOIL, D Neutral
1 155

Trading is tough here except with tight stop (which are likely taken away)

I would buy again if trades below 43
1 day ago
BTCUSD, D Neutral
11 1508
On the left is our $266 high in 2013, on the right is our current volatile drop to $166 flipped upside down. A month ago I made a thread about how I believed we were in the middle of a shorting\bearish bubble, posted here:

And today, with our 20\20 retrospect goggles on, we can see that having formed out in the charts. These moves are partly harmonic\fractal because of the nature of markets to find a equilibrium, but I believe it shows the bubble cycle mentality that is so common in Bitcoin. In the past, the only way to participate in the price action was to buy. There was no ability to short on any exchange until basically 2014, where we saw the advent of the bear market. This means that the bears, like the bulls, need to have their chance at the extremely volatile, bubble-like nature of Bitcoin, and undergo a shorting bubble just like the bulls had a longing bubble.

I threw the ascending wedge pattern in there for shits and giggles, but I honestly do not know where this consolidation pattern will lead us (as my related idea below shows). I just find it fascinating how Bitcoin loves to repeat it's patterns; it loves it's fractals.

I used the April 2013 bubble because it fit the shape I was looking for more in form than the Nov 2013 one did where we twin-topped (inb4 accusations of form-fitting). If you scroll to Nov on the left chart then you can see what I am talking about, I added a few of my markings for comparison.

Let me know what you think! I'm liking the historical analysis "series" I've been doing, for some reason I keep finding these things. Like, comment, and follow!
14 hours ago
VXX, 240 Neutral
1 20
And the GLD splits the two. Noticing that GLD trending up. What does that say about pro players leans to the markets near future action? GLD will miror VXX , and cross SPY on its way down IMO.
21 hours ago
EURGBP, W Neutral
0 90
EUR is supposed to be in a bear market.

If this call is true about EURGBP, It is then likely that the other call about GBPUSD would be true too.
1 day ago
GBPUSD, 15 Long
9 217
In this chart I decided to focus on timing momentum via the use of fundamental events.
These are the pieces of information the market will be expecting before deciding in its direction.
The events in red are the ones that will create the strongest volatility when announced, non-farm payrolls and the interest rate decision by the BoE.
Smaller news mostly have an impact on retail traders who create the small momentum surges we see here, while the larger timeframe trader (institutions and large speculators) continue in the direction they had established before, which created the trend in the first place.
Small surges of supply create the peaks and troughs, but paradigm shifts will be fueled by fundamental events, observable in the chart as well.
As long as the 1.54 level holds, and if we see price move away from it, upwards, I expect cable to rally further, easily reaching 1.58 in the short term.
Let's see how this unfolds, shall we?
1 day ago
EURUSD, 240 Long
30 1356
Hey gang, lot's of dollar strength today and after big moves we typically see some relief. Below is a link to my weekly trading video where I'll walk you through the 3 different opportunities that the EURUSD will offer us to get long.

"What The Internet Won't Tell You" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kUA_hZ3DaNY&feature=youtu.be
1 day ago
0 541
Breaking out from a 5 wave Symmetrical Triangle(down median bias), clearing 20-50 sma, downtrend_line(s), above/at 50%. RSI at 55, clearing horizontal resistance.
21 hours ago
TSLA, 60 Neutral
2 186

Following is a quick analysis offered in a personal inquiry; I was asked that it be shared in TradingView.com. I thank my friend for his trust and recommendation.

Here is the 60-min. chart, which is revealing important technical developments:


1 - A positive divergence in RSI has built a solid floor, interdicting or imposing a very-high resistance right at 183.84 - not sure what happened there fundamentally, but this will be one hard floor to crack.

2 - A 1.272 Fibonacci extension is the shallowest acceptable counter-trend value to consider any aggressively counter-directional market. Here, it did that right at that aforementioned positive RSI divergence ... Again, a very fast turn-around built at a very solid buttressed value of 183.84

3 - A nascent bullish channel is forming. This remains to be further elucidated by added validation levels, but that channel might perhaps belong to a "momental line" which are part of the occult and weird behavior in the market I have discovered. (see how the translated upper channel boundary maintains angular relevance in this window ... Very important feature suggesting a maximal rate of acceeration, much like a car has a maximal speed based on its intrinsec mechanics. Each stock submits to the same mechanical "terminal velocity" over time, hence the momentum allusion.

Right now, the precocious targets are as featured, namely:

1 - TG-1 = 256.10 - 27 FEB 2015


2 - TG-Hi = 283.70 - 27 FEB 2015.

OVERALL: The M5/M15 chart shows a retail-level analysis that often falls to higher-weighed players in terms of financial responding.

If 225.44 is breached to the upside while price remains in the (still speculative) bullish channel, then the targets are likely to be part of a larger Elliott Wave Flat pattern with added upside.

PS: I do not hold any position in TSLA.

David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Denver, Colorado - USA


David Alcindor

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