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Further to my recent "oil sell-off complete" chart (linked), I'm much more cautious getting long energy, especially because of this heating oil chart.
Will see how both my Brent crude and heating oil charts line up going forward but I expect Brent to be considerably below my target zone by the time this heating oil chart drops into the 2.04 and below buy zone.
Heating Oil has just made a Higher Low (RSI = 52.430, Highs/Lows = 0.0000) at 2.1600 on the 1W Channel Up that has been dictating its direction since January. Technically this is an ideal long term long entry towards the 2.4466 High.
However on the monthly chart and the 1M Channel Up (RSI = 60.743, MACD = 0.148, Highs/Lows = 0.0482) that started on January 2016, ...
We think it is worth to have an eye on this crack spread between gasoline and heating oil. The reason is simple: this spread is close to its lower end of the range and therefore close to its extreme. We will buy this spread when the spread reached -0.40. In this case, we buy RB and sell HO.
Heating Oil is trading within a very long term 1W Channel Up (RSI = 60.650, MACD = 0.049, Highs/Lows = 0.0425), highly volatile, but after having made a Lower High, seen on a strong 1D Channel Up. We are long aiming first at 2.3061 and 2.3404 in extension.
Wave almost completed. Big short opportunity comming up.
Short term under-performance for NG relative to HO?
Heating Oil is trading within a long term 1D Channel Down and is coming off the most recent Lower High (RSI = 45.169, MACD = -0.007, Highs/Lows = -0.0171, B/BP = -0.0334). The downside potential is significant but we will only go short if the August 02 low (2.0863) breaks. TP = 2.0421.
Been doing some research the past week to test different tools to read this market and so far ichimoku and the CM_ULTIMATE_... (long name, created using combo of multiple tools) work the best.... Also i see the MACD helps along too but most definitely not needed but helps confirm signals but not as good as the other 2 on this market imo.
Entered the market a ...
Stops below 200MA.
Short Position (EP) : 2.1399
Stop Loss (SL) : 2.1586
Take Profit (TP) : 2.0669, 1.9916
RB formed Double Repo Failure Sell at 1d time frame. Trade setup with Sell Limit at 0.382 Level (2.1399) and place stop after 0.618 level (2.1586). Once the position was hit, place take profit before an agreement (2.0669) and 1.9916
In scrolling through the intra-day charts, I came across a rather bearish looking pattern being painted by the algos.
This caught my attention and warranted further investigation - What I found was a confluence of bearish indicators that argue for making a short bet here. Lets take a look at the evidence.
1 - The COT report as of 10/3 shows that Commercials ...
Remains to be seen - something to watch over the next two or three trading sessions. Fib levels are natural S/R zones and can be used as targets/entry and exit points moving forward. Until it makes a confirmation with price, we watch and wait.
Heating Oil this week broke above its 2 year high. The move was confirmed with a strong day's close above the high, and now the weekly bar is closing above - N.B: provided that Heating Oil holds in today's session.
Seasonally August & September are strong months which lends another dimension to a pure chartist approach.
Here is the setup:
1 - Commercial Traders net position ranks 92% on a 18m basis - They have been buying heavily into this decline. Trend following Hedge Funds on the other hand score a very weak 21% so they are still extremely short even after this 30 cent wipeout. Once the technicals start turning, their algo's will be covering to lock in the sizeable gains on ...
New January contracts spread look to go down. Setup is not so clear, so I prefer to wait outside.
Crude oil contract has not gave us a signal yet as NY Harbor ULSD has.
We looking to go short here.
$5,178.60 / Contract profit potential
$4,125 initial margin
All signals the same as Crude oil WTI.
Futures trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors.
Good opportunity to sell some upside calls or call spread, above 1.60 strike for sideways or correction lower IMHO
Targets on downside middle BBands and lower trend line (orange).
(Time frame next 5-10 trading days)