Skipper86

Skipper86 P

The S&P no longer has the same level of weakness it did in 2000 and 2008 and here's why: In 2000, price stayed below the 50-week sma for a duration of 66 weeks in a row before closing above it. In 2008, it stayed below for 53 weeks in a row before closing above it. In 2022, it only stayed below it for 34 weeks in a row. This inability to stay below the sma...

Skipper86 P

Corn has dropped below the 100, 20, and 9-week simple moving averages, all of which have rolled over to have negative slopes. The most notable is the 100sma. When it has a positive slope, it appears to act as support, but once the slope turns negative, price can go vertically down as it did in 2013. Another noteworthy item is the 45 week time span from peak to...

Skipper86 P

This diagram helps visualize the effects of overtrading. Overtrading is placing more trades than should be placed, typically resulting in unnecessary losses. There is a fixed number of trade setups that will occur with any trading system during any time period and ideally each trade setup will be traded to produce maximal profits. In general, trades that are...

Skipper86 P

Gold is respecting the 300-day simple moving average as of late. We just put in a double bottom which tagged it twice after the Silicon Valley Bank Failure which can serve as a catalyst for further upside in the week ahead. Similarities between the current situation and the situation before the big run up which began in 2019 are highlighted using 300-day...

Skipper86 P Updated 

Hear ye hear ye! Thy SPY chart needeth to drop down to 300. Okay, enough of that. SPY is likely headed down from here and here’s why: For starters, the weekly MACD has had a signal cross failure which is something I’ve been on the look out for since May per the linked idea below. This MACD red alert following on the heels of a head and shoulders with a...

Skipper86 P

The green channels show the inverse H&S price objective, the green dotted line shows the broken uptrend, and the red line shows a previous resistance level. The upside target is at the confluence of the three at 265.45 in mid-March. The P/E ratio is looking extended and supports a downside move at the resistance. I don’t have a downside target or even a trade...

Skipper86 P

Soybean short swing trade: The Bollinger Bands width has narrowed to 2.56% of price which is a level not seen in over a year. A new 6-month or greater low in bandwidth indicates that a volatility squeeze breakout is likely upon us. Similar volatility squeeze situations exist in wheat and corn but they both broke to the downside significantly last week. Wheat...

Skipper86 P

The assumptions are that money printing is real inflation as is often stated by Peter Schiff and M2 money supply is a good measure of the amount of money that has been printed into circulation. This data goes back to 1959 and makes the dot com bubble in 2000 look much more exuberant than current price levels. There is room for downside from here as the 1966 to...

Skipper86 P

Price is attempting a retest of the white 2022 trend line. There’s a confluence of the trend line, the green parallel channel, and price level 3880. 3880 is a level I’m watching due to similarities between now and 2011 which turned out to be a fake crash year. That idea is linked as a related idea below. The confluence occurs on Friday of this coming week. ...

Skipper86 P

The soybean crush spread calculates how much profit a soybean processing plant can generate by crushing a bushel of soybeans into soybean meal and oil. The profit margin is that profit number divided by the revenue which is the price of the meal and oil outputs. I prefer to look at profit margin as opposed to just profit as it adjusts for large market...

Skipper86 P

This idea is an analysis of this season's widowmaker spread breakdown done in hindsight for future reference. See idea linked below for last season's widowmaker analysis. Idea explained on the chart. Snapshot of chart before publishing distortion:

Skipper86 P

Boston Scientific develops, manufactures, and markets medical devices. Q4 earnings were reported this week providing a clear picture of 2022 annual fundamentals. The fundamentals considered are presented on the chart with brief commentary. Technical considerations: Price bounced off of trend line going back to 2012 Ascending triangle breakout New ATH weekly...

Skipper86 P

Price is oscillating in a cyclical manner within a sweeping channel. If it continues to do so, it will be at $193 by March 20th. Keyword: if. It might make sense to pick up a couple calls just in case, they’re fairly cheap. Also, entering long here with a stop outside the channel might make sense as well.

Skipper86 P

$35 strike May 19 expiration puts are going for $1.03 right now and I’m thinking of grabbing 10 at $1.00 a piece for a total cost of $1000. Reasons to go short: FCX at upper bound of downtrend channel FCX at horizontal resistance from May 2021 FCX Time cycle suggests top forming within 2 weeks (this trade might be early) Weekly copper chart at 2008 crash level,...

Skipper86 P

Chart 1: Looking at the seasonal performance of oil longs taken around this time of year for the previous 2 years, it can be extrapolated that this last week of January coming up is a good time to go long for a swing trade. It can also be observed that there was a W-bottom this time last year and that we’ve just completed a similar W-bottom pattern. The green...

Skipper86 P

Bear case: There is a descending triangle and a time cycle of peaks suggesting downside. Bull case: There is a trendline suggesting upside General: If the green trendline is broken to the downside, there is no moving average support* until the 20-month SMA and below that there is only the 100-week and 200-week which is well below near the implied target of the...

Skipper86 P

and it was retested this week. The Rollover LTE indicator (see script below) helps show why the 20 SMA (white smooth line) rolled up so sharply after steadily declining since June. The current price is above the sharply-dropping weekly closing price from 20 weeks ago (white jagged line), therefore, the 20 SMA has achieved a positive slope in short order. The...

Skipper86 P

There are similarities between the price action in 2011 and 2022 worth examining. The 2011 chart is on the left and the 2022 chart is on the right. The similarities listed in chronological order are as follows: 1. Major spiking crash (white) 2. Corrective trading range which would eventually serve as support (blue) 3. 100%+ rally off of crash low(gray) 4. Head...