Skipper86

Skipper86 Pro

Last week’s unusual intraday price action on Cinco De Mayo when there was a big rally right at the market open followed by a ranging pattern with highs that formed a crescent sweep looks very similar to the price action on the daily chart for the year. There are many differences between the patterns but the similarities between the two very different timeframes...

Skipper86 Pro

The top chart which is the daily shows major trendline support confluence at 101.00 and a 15-day time cycle of peaks which suggests we’re currently near or at a peak. The bottom chart which is the hourly shows a compound rising wedge (a rising wedge within a rising wedge) and the breakout of the teal line which “requires” a kickback revisit before allowing any...

Skipper86 Pro

Using a standard MACD and an indicator which colorizes price based on MACD signals, it can be observed that the current price decline looks similar to previous corrections and crashes with the exception of the Covid crash which was a rare black swan event. Assuming another black swan isn't upon us, and basing predictions on past performance, (two yellow flags,...

Skipper86 Pro

DXY weekly has an ascending triangle and it had a positive correlation to stocks when it had a sharp bull rally in 2014. It's also approaching horizontal resistance. Should get interesting.

Skipper86 Pro

Last time the Fed started raising interest rates and people were freaking out saying the stock market was about to crash was 2015. Yours truly lost a decent chunk of change on SPY puts at that time, so I remember it clearly. As the chart shows, the market did not crash, it rallied. The main difference between now and then is there is inflation and a new set of...

Skipper86 Pro

A pattern which for now is being described as a bat pattern until someone comes up with something better has been observed previously and now what appears to be a larger version is forming. SPY has repeated the "W" pattern many times during the Covid bull market but the most recent instance of such a pattern failed to continue the rally. This perhaps signals the...

Skipper86 Pro

There has been a 5.8 day (133 hour) cycle that began with the Russian invasion. Plotting the distance (“Dispersion” bottom left chart) between the 50hr sma (blue top left) and 200hr sma (red top left) reveals it. The turning of the peaks represents buy (green vertical lines) and sell (red vertical lines) signals. Whether or not the turning of the peaks signals...

Skipper86 Pro

Bearish considerations: 1. All moving averages of importance have curled over and have negative slopes. 2. A clearly-defined uptrend has been broken and tested multiple times. 3. A .382 Fib retracement has been clearly defined. 4. There is a bear flag pattern (the green channel). 5. The 200-day has been retested and rejected from below in a major way Bullish...

Skipper86 Pro

A nice parabola can be observed in the DXY chart. Cartesian coordinates have been added for emphasis. This is not investment advice.

Skipper86 Pro

Chart A: (this text magically disappears from the chart when publishing so I put it here) Strength (higher high) shown in December crude => Likelihood that oil is headed higher note: June contract has not put in a higher high at this point, but December is taken to be more important since it's further into the future and future price is what we're trying to...

Skipper86 Pro

EIA (Energy Information Agency) historical data going back to 1990 shows that the past year has seen stocks (storage) depleting more rapidly than any other year. I have reasons to believe demand is rising and if anyone is curious I will elaborate further but these ideas that I've been posting don't get much attention. I'll just say that diminishing supply and...

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The US consumes 18 million barrels of crude oil per day (source: Google ). This is a staggering volume which is difficult to visualize therefore I have calculated how many football fields long each side of a cube that could hold that much oil would need to be in order to help with visualization. The result is that the cube would need to measure 1.29 football...

Skipper86 Pro

SPY is at horizontal support and is peeking below the 100-day sma. The previous two selloffs didn't make it much further than 1.5% below the 100-sma, as shown by the 1.5% envelope band below the sma. This suggests a buying opportunity may be upon us within the next 5 or so trading days, judging by previous price action. I wouldn't want to hold long over the...

Skipper86 Pro

Crude will probably retest and maybe exceed the 2021 high somewhat but a correction to cool things off seems necessary to bring us back to the green trendline which is sloped identically to previous ascents. The purple trendline which goes back to November 2020 is important and a retest of it seems likely. The red line which is a support/resistance line of...

Skipper86 Pro

Supports a bearish outlook. The speed fan shows uptrend failure after uptrend failure and retesting of the fan lines. It would appear that we are now retesting a fan line and the downside target is in the $50 range.

Skipper86 Pro

Looks like the setup before a major plunge. A plunge is not guaranteed, but the setup is worth noting.

Skipper86 Pro

(increased production) and a decrease in price in the price of crude oil in 2022.

Skipper86 Pro

Linear regression downward channel, engulfing candles shown, looks more bearish than it does bullish but a break out of this channel would be interesting.