About meMy published ideas or any conversations in public chat rooms should not be taken as financial advice. Do your own due diligence before making any financial decisions. My public chat room commentary should not be taken as facts and should be ignored.
The idea is a position that profits from any difference between the 20yr bond ETF ( NASDAQ:TLT ) and NASDAQ:IEF , the 10yr Note ETF. The potential opportunity lies in their identical share price, a rare event.
Yield on the 20yr has never been lower than the yield on the 10yr (since 1989). The top chart shows the difference in price . Always above 0. It...
NYSE:IFN India Daily
Volume Profile : VAH Value Area High not likely to be resistance given the acceleration as price punches it at high volume.
Target: top of fork
SL: there's a fractal at 15.80
DBB weekly .
AVWAP support from multiple historic lows.
Recent double bottom (TBD)
Support going back to 2008. Tested multiple times (inc 2010 and 2022's October lows)
Volume Profile LVN consistent with the 2008 support.
SL: the support zone.
TP: The VAH ~ around ~$21.16 appears to offer the best expected value (risk...
For the answer, scroll down to the comment section.
Two charts of $IWM weekly TF.
One chart is current (as of 2/4/2023).
The other is 2008 ,up to 4 candles before the 50% drop.
Which one crashed 50%?
The conundrum: why do we assess current price action as bullish, when a similar pattern resulted in the GFC in 2008?
There are many possible answers, none of...
Chip maker Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. may benefit from ChatGPT. Their scope is international and they manufacture 95% of small chips.
Targets: confluence of 2 forks, VAH and fib 0.618
SL idea: $86 is below the intersection of the 2 forks medians and below a 4hr fractal
Growth stocks outperform value stocks most of the time on a weekly chart of $VUG / $VTV, Vanguard's growth and value elf's respectively.
Since the start of the 2022 bear market that relationship has reversed and, in August 2022, broke both horizontal support as well as a 14 year long diagonal support.
These breakouts are being retested now, in January 2023. The...
An alien trader landed on earth and was given a chart of the combined** US indices (futures). Luckily, and not coincidentally, he knew TA.
He had never heard of people like J.Powell and J.Cramer, or places like China, Ukraine and Russia.
this is what he saw:
- Broke out 'above' the main diagonal trend (bullish)
- Made a Higher High (bullish)
Buy for long-term hold
Dividend > 6%
Entry: bounce off POC and breakout from descending wedge
Context: Shorting NAS 100 index while buying quality blue-chips with high dividends for > 3yr hold.
Simultaneous 2W Red Bars for all the above*. SPY is in pink so it stands out (by popular request).
This is relatively rare p= 0.028: 11 out of 387 bars since GFC
The chart shows the 11 periods with a yellow vertical line. Each asset is shown independently (upper left) as well as a horde (bottom)
Since the choice of ETF's was neither complete nor systematic,...
Price and range typically move in opposite directions (you will pay more for a less volatile asset). The bottom chart (Average True Range) looks like a mirror image of the top (Price). For a perfect example I'm appending the same chat but have scrolled back to the COVID drop.
The ATR is in a larger downtrend that remains intact.
** It did not break out today....
Safe experience lull you into a false sense of security, even when you know about a clear and present danger. That's what experts on risk and decision making** say about the role of our personal experience in our risk perception. Take 9/11 for example. Many, suddenly concerned about the risk in flying, opted to drive instead. However, in reality the risk of...
The summary: Stocks fell ("Faded"?) out of the main upward channel. Bulls can hang there hats on the ATR that has not confirmed a reversal.
Chart shows the mean of 3 US stock indexes divided by their respective volatility index: SPX / VIX , NDQ / VXN , DJA / VXD. This is one approach to putting all 3 on a single scale and is conceptually similar to Z-score,...
Chart shows SPY (2D) and the percentage of stocks above their 20DMA(aqua) and 200DMA (yellow).
Each series is the mean percentage of 7 index's which, in turn, aggregate several thousand underlying stocks. The 7 indexes: S&P, Dow, Nasdaq, Russell, TSX, NYSE, AMEX
The peaks of the index coincide with market tops (as shown in the chart). Based on this pattern...
SPY, 240m price
indicator: momentum midline oscillator
Price exhibits, perhaps historic, divergence from the momentum oscillator below. This is just one of many signs concerning experts about the possibility of a global financial crisis.
Managing risk in this environment feels ironic at times. It reminds me a Douglas Adams humor book from the...
Chart: SPY 2 week TF. The answers are both in the chart and below. SPOILER: If SPY rallies to $800, the downtrend is still valid.
A downtrend is defined as LOWER lows (LL) and LOWER highs (LH). Uptrend? as HL's and HH's. **
A single HIGHER high (HH) invalidates a downtrend trend in that TF.
Trend is relative to TF and can be valid in one TF...