The tickers are MMTW, MMRH and MMFI.
Interesting that they are close to historic trend-lines given recent volatility (date: 12/11/18).
Possibly a unique opportunity to take a longterm position (days or weeks) in equities.
the idea: the main asset classes are negatively correlated (stocks, bonds, dollar, gold) so shorting its all should be a dynamically hedged position. Shorting :
Dollar DXY x 2
Dow: US30 x 2
target: bottom of wedge, then yellow circle
The ratio VIX/SPY goes down when SPX 0.05% goes up. This makes it easier to see the ratios lower limit (and SPX's upper limit)
Today VIX/SPY broke a support.
SPX has not yet mimicked this move
If VIX/SPY returns to baseline (as it has before) it implies a move of SPX500 to ~2183.
It is tempting to short SPY (or SPX500, ES, etc.) as it violated support at Fridays close. (top)
Here is why I am long:
Plotting SPX500 relative to the DOW or to the dollar (DXY) suggests that it is most likely to bounce up. Relative to DOW, SPX500 is on a support that has held 4 times over 4 previous months (middle). Relative to DXY, SPX500 sits on a support...
While the market marches higher (bottom) the ratio SPX500/US30 is in sharp decline. This indicates LARGE out performance of the (safer) DOW index.
Open question: Why would investors abandon SPY for the DOW as futures seem to be rising?
The rate of change in the ratio between the Dow Real Estate index and the Real Estate and Housing Dev index provides a reliable indicator for impending losses in SPY.
Setting a cut off of approximately 3.5 in the ROC (this can be tweaked) is useful.
Historic trend lines for SPY, VIX and the ratio SPY/VIX suggest SPY 50 (assuming VIX 100) in the future.
Timing is estimated with fibs anchored on past crashes.
A simple hedge is to buy Puts on SPY at the lowest strike (70) with a distant expiration date (Dec, 2018 is the farthest right now but these could be rolled, say, once a year)
The indicator shows $ change in NAS100 futures vs. US30 futures.
The previouse trend of increasing change to NAS100 vs US30 has been broken.
As US30 may be considered a safe heaven relative to the NAS100 index, the trends breakdown signifies a tipping point in terms of risk.