gb50k

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Markets Allocation
28 % stocks 9 % indices 64 % other
Top Mentioned Symbols
SPX 25% | 16 SPY 19% | 12 VXX 9% | 6 TLT 4% | 3
gb50k gb50k PRO 2*DXY*1000+ZN1!*1000+2*US30*5+XAUUSD*100, W, Short ,
2*DXY*1000+ZN1!*1000+2*US30*5+XAUUSD*100: short everything
short everything

the idea: the main asset classes are negatively correlated (stocks, bonds, dollar, gold) so shorting its all should be a dynamically hedged position. Shorting : Dollar DXY x 2 Dow: US30 x 2 Gold: GC Bonds: ZN target: bottom of wedge, then yellow circle

gb50k gb50k PRO SPY, D,
SPY: RSI comparison across SPY GLD USO TLT
122 1 11
SPY, D
RSI comparison across SPY GLD USO TLT

Capital flows can be inferred from a comparison of SPY GLD USO TLT in terms of relative RSI's

gb50k gb50k PRO VIX/SPY, 60, Long ,
VIX/SPY: SPY to rally based on VIX/SPY
84 0 6
VIX/SPY, 60 Long
SPY to rally based on VIX/SPY

The ratio VIX/SPY goes down when SPX 0.05% goes up. This makes it easier to see the ratios lower limit (and SPX's upper limit) Today VIX/SPY broke a support. SPX has not yet mimicked this move If VIX/SPY returns to baseline (as it has before) it implies a move of SPX500 to ~2183.

gb50k gb50k PRO SPX*50-DOWI*5, M,
SPX*50-DOWI*5: SPX 1222 for Election day 2016
562 2 18
SPX*50-DOWI*5, M
SPX 1222 for Election day 2016

A chart of the SPX-DOWI premium organizes price into an orderly channel. One salient target for the current bear market is SPX 1222 in November 2016.

gb50k gb50k PRO (FB+AMZN+NFLX+GOOGL)/QQQ, W,
(FB+AMZN+NFLX+GOOGL)/QQQ: Fall of FANG: No WICK in sight
Fall of FANG: No WICK in sight

Expected to continue until we see a lower wick: FANG stocks (FB, AAPL, AMZN, NFLX, GOOG) typically outperform the NASDAQ index. Not this week. Buying opportunity?

gb50k gb50k PRO SPX500, 60, Long ,
SPX500: Illusion of Violation: Long SPY
430 4 11
SPX500, 60 Long
Illusion of Violation: Long SPY

It is tempting to short SPY (or SPX500, ES, etc.) as it violated support at Fridays close. (top) Here is why I am long: Plotting SPX500 relative to the DOW or to the dollar (DXY) suggests that it is most likely to bounce up. Relative to DOW, SPX500 is on a support that has held 4 times over 4 previous months (middle). Relative to DXY, SPX500 sits on a support ...

gb50k gb50k PRO SPX500/US30, 60,
SPX500/US30: Abandon ship - SPX loses big business to the Dow index
228 0 7
SPX500/US30, 60
Abandon ship - SPX loses big business to the Dow index

While the market marches higher (bottom) the ratio SPX500/US30 is in sharp decline. This indicates LARGE out performance of the (safer) DOW index. Open question: Why would investors abandon SPY for the DOW as futures seem to be rising? Good luck.

gb50k gb50k PRO DSRE/DSEH, D,
DSRE/DSEH: SPY Bear /crash indicator DSRE/DSEH
64 0 5
DSRE/DSEH, D
SPY Bear /crash indicator DSRE/DSEH

The rate of change in the ratio between the Dow Real Estate index and the Real Estate and Housing Dev index provides a reliable indicator for impending losses in SPY. Setting a cut off of approximately 3.5 in the ROC (this can be tweaked) is useful.

gb50k gb50k PRO SPY, D, Short ,
SPY: Short SVXY durring high VIX periods
211 0 8
SPY, D Short
Short SVXY durring high VIX periods

SVXY pays a price when VIX is high (>16).... even when SPY is increasing (see arrows). This is due to rollover but not to be confused with VXX decay due to contango.

gb50k gb50k PRO SPY, 2W,
SPY: Buy Puts Now: The Sequal
78 0 6
SPY, 2W
Buy Puts Now: The Sequal

Applying Fib levels to previous SPY crash levels is consistent with a level of 50 in Feb 2019.

gb50k gb50k PRO SPY/VIX, 2W,
SPY/VIX: Buy Puts Now
289 0 10
SPY/VIX, 2W
Buy Puts Now

Historic trend lines for SPY, VIX and the ratio SPY/VIX suggest SPY 50 (assuming VIX 100) in the future. Timing is estimated with fibs anchored on past crashes. A simple hedge is to buy Puts on SPY at the lowest strike (70) with a distant expiration date (Dec, 2018 is the farthest right now but these could be rolled, say, once a year)

gb50k gb50k PRO SPX500, D,
SPX500: Houston? We may have a problem
279 0 6
SPX500, D
Houston? We may have a problem

The indicator shows $ change in NAS100 futures vs. US30 futures. The previouse trend of increasing change to NAS100 vs US30 has been broken. As US30 may be considered a safe heaven relative to the NAS100 index, the trends breakdown signifies a tipping point in terms of risk.

gb50k gb50k PRO SPX, W,
SPX: SPY missing wick: Rally a monthly wick
332 4 9
SPX, W
SPY missing wick: Rally a monthly wick

A 'bottom wick' can be formed on the monthly chart by having an all green/up week. When combined with the red candle at the monthly level - Creates the dynamic of a 'bottom' where the bears push price down to a limit and the bulls succeed in fighting back and bring price back up - and the bottom is formed. Looking at the weekly chart for SPX or SPY their are ...

gb50k gb50k PRO SPX500, W,
SPX500: SPY missing wick: more pain to come
134 1 8
SPX500, W
SPY missing wick: more pain to come

Bottom candles tend to have a lower wick. This represents the bears bringing down the price and the bulls overcoming the bears and bringing price back up. Hence the 'bottom' Last week SPY decline lacks a wick. Suggests more Down to come.

gb50k gb50k PRO SPX500, 120,
SPX500: SPY indicator: The Spy-Dow premium
171 0 4
SPX500, 120
SPY indicator: The Spy-Dow premium

Motivation: Historical data shows how the index ratio SPY/DIA gives insight into different market phases since the Dow is more attractive when risk is high. (ref: www.crossingwallstreet.com/archives/2013/09/the-dow-to-sp-500-ratio-2.html ) Daily and intraday movements can be both described and predicted using trendlines on the SPX500 premium over the US30 in ...

gb50k gb50k PRO 2*XAUUSD*100-ZBH2016*1000, 45,
2*XAUUSD*100-ZBH2016*1000: Long Gold, Short TLT
Long Gold, Short TLT

value seems to be transferring from bonds to gold. a long gold, short bonds position produces an attractive equity curve. The charts shows dollar value for a combined position of 3 futures: 2 long GC (gold) 1 short ZB (treasuries 30yr)

gb50k gb50k PRO 4*US30*5-NAS100*20-SPX500*50, 120,
4*US30*5-NAS100*20-SPX500*50: to rally or not to rally - 3 index answer
to rally or not to rally - 3 index answer

combining DOW, SPY and NAS futures can cut down on the noise. still an open question: are we rallying or not. this chart might give clarity before "one index" charts.

gb50k gb50k PRO XAUUSD*100-USOIL*1000, 30,
XAUUSD*100-USOIL*1000: Long gold short oil
412 0 7
XAUUSD*100-USOIL*1000, 30
Long gold short oil

The gold-oil gap appears to be passing through a tipping point. A surge in the long-gold short-oil position could be due to either a gold rally, an oil dump, or both. Chart shows position using one gold future and one oil future but there exists a parallel position using ETF's.

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