gb50k

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Last visit Joined 2 years ago
Markets Allocation
35 % stocks 8 % indices 57 % other
Top Mentioned Symbols
SPX 26% | 16 SPY 18% | 11 VXX 10% | 6 TLT 5% | 3
gb50k gb50k PRO VIX/SPY, 60, Long , 2 months ago
VIX/SPY: SPY to rally based on VIX/SPY
54 0 2
VIX/SPY, 60 Long
SPY to rally based on VIX/SPY
The ratio VIX/SPY goes down when SPX 0.05% goes up. This makes it easier to see the ratios lower limit (and SPX's upper limit) Today VIX/SPY broke a support. SPX has not yet mimicked this move If VIX/SPY returns to baseline (as it has before) it implies a move of SPX500 to ~2183.
gb50k gb50k PRO SPX*50-DOWI*5, M, 9 months ago
SPX*50-DOWI*5: SPX 1222 for Election day 2016
528 2 15
SPX*50-DOWI*5, M
SPX 1222 for Election day 2016
A chart of the SPX-DOWI premium organizes price into an orderly channel. One salient target for the current bear market is SPX 1222 in November 2016.
gb50k gb50k PRO (FB+AMZN+NFLX+GOOGL)/QQQ, W, 10 months ago
(FB+AMZN+NFLX+GOOGL)/QQQ: Fall of FANG: No WICK in sight
Fall of FANG: No WICK in sight
Expected to continue until we see a lower wick: FANG stocks (FB, AAPL, AMZN, NFLX, GOOG) typically outperform the NASDAQ index. Not this week. Buying opportunity?
gb50k gb50k PRO SPX500, 60, Long , 10 months ago
SPX500: Illusion of Violation: Long SPY
419 4 7
SPX500, 60 Long
Illusion of Violation: Long SPY
It is tempting to short SPY (or SPX500, ES, etc.) as it violated support at Fridays close. (top) Here is why I am long: Plotting SPX500 relative to the DOW or to the dollar (DXY) suggests that it is most likely to bounce up. Relative to DOW, SPX500 is on a support that has held 4 times over 4 previous months ...
gb50k gb50k PRO SPX500/US30, 60, 10 months ago
SPX500/US30: Abandon ship - SPX loses big business to the Dow index
216 0 5
SPX500/US30, 60
Abandon ship - SPX loses big business to the Dow index
While the market marches higher (bottom) the ratio SPX500/US30 is in sharp decline. This indicates LARGE out performance of the (safer) DOW index. Open question: Why would investors abandon SPY for the DOW as futures seem to be rising? Good luck.
gb50k gb50k PRO DSRE/DSEH, D, 10 months ago
DSRE/DSEH: SPY Bear /crash indicator DSRE/DSEH
62 0 3
DSRE/DSEH, D
SPY Bear /crash indicator DSRE/DSEH
The rate of change in the ratio between the Dow Real Estate index and the Real Estate and Housing Dev index provides a reliable indicator for impending losses in SPY. Setting a cut off of approximately 3.5 in the ROC (this can be tweaked) is useful.
gb50k gb50k PRO SPY, D, Short , 10 months ago
SPY: Short SVXY durring high VIX periods
201 0 6
SPY, D Short
Short SVXY durring high VIX periods
SVXY pays a price when VIX is high (>16).... even when SPY is increasing (see arrows). This is due to rollover but not to be confused with VXX decay due to contango.
gb50k gb50k PRO SPY, 2W, 10 months ago
SPY: Buy Puts Now: The Sequal
78 0 4
SPY, 2W
Buy Puts Now: The Sequal
Applying Fib levels to previous SPY crash levels is consistent with a level of 50 in Feb 2019.
gb50k gb50k PRO SPY/VIX, 2W, 10 months ago
SPY/VIX: Buy Puts Now
282 0 8
SPY/VIX, 2W
Buy Puts Now
Historic trend lines for SPY, VIX and the ratio SPY/VIX suggest SPY 50 (assuming VIX 100) in the future. Timing is estimated with fibs anchored on past crashes. A simple hedge is to buy Puts on SPY at the lowest strike (70) with a distant expiration date (Dec, 2018 is the farthest right now but these could be ...
gb50k gb50k PRO SPX500, D, 10 months ago
SPX500: Houston? We may have a problem
273 0 4
SPX500, D
Houston? We may have a problem
The indicator shows $ change in NAS100 futures vs. US30 futures. The previouse trend of increasing change to NAS100 vs US30 has been broken. As US30 may be considered a safe heaven relative to the NAS100 index, the trends breakdown signifies a tipping point in terms of risk.
gb50k gb50k PRO SPX, W, 11 months ago
SPX: SPY missing wick: Rally a monthly wick
332 4 7
SPX, W
SPY missing wick: Rally a monthly wick
A 'bottom wick' can be formed on the monthly chart by having an all green/up week. When combined with the red candle at the monthly level - Creates the dynamic of a 'bottom' where the bears push price down to a limit and the bulls succeed in fighting back and bring price back up - and the bottom is formed. Looking ...
gb50k gb50k PRO SPX500, W, 11 months ago
SPX500: SPY missing wick: more pain to come
134 1 7
SPX500, W
SPY missing wick: more pain to come
Bottom candles tend to have a lower wick. This represents the bears bringing down the price and the bulls overcoming the bears and bringing price back up. Hence the 'bottom' Last week SPY decline lacks a wick. Suggests more Down to come.
gb50k gb50k PRO SPX500, 120, 11 months ago
SPX500: SPY indicator: The Spy-Dow premium
166 0 3
SPX500, 120
SPY indicator: The Spy-Dow premium
Motivation: Historical data shows how the index ratio SPY/DIA gives insight into different market phases since the Dow is more attractive when risk is high. (ref: www.crossingwallstreet.com/archives/2013/09/the-dow-to-sp-500-ratio-2.html ) Daily and intraday movements can be both described and predicted using ...
gb50k gb50k PRO 2*XAUUSD*100-ZBH2016*1000, 45, a year ago
2*XAUUSD*100-ZBH2016*1000: Long Gold, Short TLT
Long Gold, Short TLT
value seems to be transferring from bonds to gold. a long gold, short bonds position produces an attractive equity curve. The charts shows dollar value for a combined position of 3 futures: 2 long GC (gold) 1 short ZB (treasuries 30yr)
gb50k gb50k PRO 4*US30*5-NAS100*20-SPX500*50, 120, a year ago
4*US30*5-NAS100*20-SPX500*50: to rally or not to rally - 3 index answer
to rally or not to rally - 3 index answer
combining DOW, SPY and NAS futures can cut down on the noise. still an open question: are we rallying or not. this chart might give clarity before "one index" charts.
gb50k gb50k PRO XAUUSD*100-USOIL*1000, 30, a year ago
XAUUSD*100-USOIL*1000: Long gold short oil
396 0 6
XAUUSD*100-USOIL*1000, 30
Long gold short oil
The gold-oil gap appears to be passing through a tipping point. A surge in the long-gold short-oil position could be due to either a gold rally, an oil dump, or both. Chart shows position using one gold future and one oil future but there exists a parallel position using ETF's.
gb50k gb50k PRO XIV, 3M, a year ago
XIV: LARGE BEAR WICK ON XIV 3mo
43 1 5
XIV, 3M
LARGE BEAR WICK ON XIV 3mo
time to short svxy
gb50k gb50k PRO VIX, D, a year ago
VIX: VIX surf
90 1 4
VIX, D
VIX surf
VIX surfs the waves of SPY volatility
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