NaughtyPines

... , one high implied volatility (HTZ), two low implied volatility (TLT, GLD), and one long-dated bullish assumption oil trade (XOP). High Implied Volatility HTZ "Monied" Covered Call Buy 100 Shares at 16.96 Sell Oct 20th 15 call 13.99 db (your cost basis in the shares) 1.01 max profit if called away at 15 Notes: Roll the short call out for additional cost ...

... for a 1.03 credit. I put this on "on the fly" on Friday. Basically, I'm looking to get a credit equal to max loss with these, so I put this in-the-money short put vertical on for a 1.03 credit with a buying power effect of .97 (risk one to make one) with the notion that contango* will erode the position running into expiry ... . Notes: Will look to "money, ...

Unless you've been living under a rock somewhere, you'll know that last week we experienced a pop in VIX. Ordinarily, this would get me somewhat excited to put on broad market index exchange-traded fund stuff in SPY, IWM, and QQQ. However, running my standard defined risk setups in those underlyings has led to minor disappointment -- while they are paying more ...

... for a 2.47 db (low implied volatility rank/low implied volatility). Metrics: Buying Power Effect: $247/contract Theta: .57 Delta: -15.07 Notes: Will look to take profit at 20% max/roll sides as price dictates.

Putting on some more low volatility strategy stuff in this low volatility market ... . There aren't many metrics to look at: Buying Power Effect: 3.55 db Theta: 1.08 Delta: -9.57 As with the IWM put calendar (see Post below), will work both ends of the candle, rolling the long away profitably, rolling the short away/out profitably while keeping the width of any ...

With VIX continuing to rattle around at sub-11 levels (it finished Friday's session at 10.03), the place to sell premium remains in earnings, although even there the pickings are slim, as broad market low volatility bleeds through the entire market. The decently liquid underlyings on tap for earnings next week: DIS, M, and NVDA, with DIS announcing Tuesday after ...

Earnings AAPL announces Tuesday after market close Aug 11th 142/157.5 20-delta short strangle Probability of Profit: 74% Max Profit: $191/contract Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: Undefined Break Evens: 140.09/159.41 (wide of 1 standard deviation on both sides) Theta: 19.34 Delta: .79 Aug 11th 137/142/157.5/162.5 20-delta iron condor Probability of Profit: 70% Max ...

... for an .11 credit. Here, I'm looking for a defined risk strategy with which to play earnings that doesn't subject me to the risk on both sides if the underlying rips hard in a larger than expected move. There are several different ways to play these: (a) Wait for the short put to approach worthless. At that point, examine what the long is worth. If its ...

... for a 2.71 db. I don't have any IWM on, and we're in a low volatility market, and calendars are a low volatility strategy, so putting one on here ... . The back month is setup around the 40 delta; the front at the same strike as the back. Unfortunately, as with all calendars and diagonals, they're aren't a good deal of metrics to look at. Here's what we do ...

... for a .93 credit. I really wanted to open up a QQQ 45 DTE, but a Sept 8th expiry is not yet available, so this will have to do. Metrics: Probability of Profit: 43% Max Profit: $93/contract Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: $207/contract Break Evens: 240.07/251.93 (~expected move on both sides) Theta: .77 Delta: -2.4 Notes: Will look to take profit at 50% max.

... for a .99 credit. Metrics: Probability of Profit: 50% Max Profit: $99/contract Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: $151/contract Break Evens: 52.01/56.99 (Slightly wide of expected move) Delta: -3.55 Theta: 4.77 Notes: Will look to manage at 50% max.

... for a 1.10 credit. It announces earnings today after market close. Metrics: Probability of Profit: 54% Max Profit: $110/contract Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: $190/contract Break Evens: 146.90/161.10 (Wide of expected move, both sides) Delta: .37 Theta: 6.08 Notes: The strikes were pesky on the call side. It was either go five-wide or 2 1/2 wide on the ...

... for a .95 credit. I really wanted to go with the highest implied volatility broad index exchange-traded fund (SPY, IWM, QQQ, DIA), 45 days until expiration, but the bid/asks were wide on both IWM and QQQ in the Sept 1st expiry, so went with SPY instead, which had a much tighter bid/ask. The short options here are set up around the 30 delta, so I'm somewhat ...

Although many of next week's earnings plays aren't up to my usual snuff due to lower implied volatility invading the entire market with VIX at sub-10 levels, some of these announcements might offer decent premium even though the metrics for a volatility contraction play aren't ideal (>70 implied volatility rank, >50 background implied volatility). Here, I'm ...

... for a 1.10/contract credit. QQQ still has the highest implied volatility of the four "majors" (SPY, QQQ, IWM, DIA). Going with the expiry nearest 45 DTE. Metrics: Probability of Profit: 51% Max Profit: $110/contract Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: $190/contract Break Evens: 132.90/144.10 Delta: -1.38 Theta: 1.12 Notes: Will look to manage at 50% max.

With this holiday foreshortened trading week, premium selling pickings remain slim. The vast majority of underlyings with 52-week >70 implied volatility rank are in stocks that are ramping up for earnings -- e.g., QCOM (71) with earnings in 15, MSFT (79) (16 days), AAPL (75) (21). In that case, you might as well wait to look at those closer to announcement to ...

Going to bite on an August setup here ... . Metrics: Max Profit: $190/contract Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: $160/contract Break Evens: 10.40/14.40 Theta: .94 Delta: 17.02 Notes: Previously, the recommendation was to shoot for 25% max profit on these. If you do that, however, you'll have to wait until the very last moment, generally, so shooting for 10% max on ...

It's got the highest implied volatility among the broad-index exchange traded funds. Going delta neutral here to get some theta on and decaying. Metrics: Probability of Profit: 51% Max Profit: $102/contract Max Loss: $198/contract Break Evens: 133.98/146.02 Theta: .98 Delta: .59 Notes: Will look to manage at 50% max.