NaughtyPines

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About me Focusing on IVR (Implied Volatility Rank), I look to sell premium, focusing primarily on indices (SPY/DIA/IWM) and treasuries (TLT/TBT) using short vertical spreads, iron condors, and short strangles.
Last visit Joined 2 years ago United States
I trade volatility, not direction.
Markets Allocation
77 % stocks 10 % indices 1 % forex 12 % other
Top Mentioned Symbols
SPY 7% | 45 SPX 5% | 38 IWM 4% | 30 VXX 3% | 24
NaughtyPines NaughtyPines RAD, D, 2 days ago
RAD: TRADE IDEA: RAD APRIL 21ST 6 LONG CALLS
23 0 4
RAD, D
TRADE IDEA: RAD APRIL 21ST 6 LONG CALLS

I do these lotto trades once in a while ... . I won't take credit for it, and I'm not the only "genius" who's thought of it given open interest in the March, April 6 and 7 calls ... . Here's the low-down, courtesy of Motley Fool: https://www.fool.com/investing/2017/02/21/the-clock-is-ticking-to-profit-from-rite-aid-stock.aspx Because I'm paying a debit for this ...

NaughtyPines NaughtyPines GPS, D, 2 days ago
GPS: TRADE IDEA: GPS 21/25/25/29 IRON FLY
17 0 5
GPS, D
TRADE IDEA: GPS 21/25/25/29 IRON FLY

High implied volatility rank, high implied volatility, earnings/volatility contraction play ... . Metrics: Max Profit: $203/contract Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: $197/contract Break Evens: 22.97/27.03 Delta: -6.38 Theta: 2.03 Notes: I'll shoot to take this off at 25% max profit ... .

NaughtyPines NaughtyPines TSLA, D, 2 days ago
TSLA: OPENING: TSLA MARCH 17TH 240/245/310/315 IRON CONDOR
82 4 2
TSLA, D
OPENING: TSLA MARCH 17TH 240/245/310/315 IRON CONDOR

... for a 1.27 ($127)/contract credit. Using the monthlies, since this isn't the most liquid thing options-wise in the world. Metrics: Probability of Profit: 67% Max Profit: $127/contract Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: $373/contract Break Evens: 243.70/311.30 Delta: -.22/contract (neutral assumption) Theta: 4.42/contract Notes: I'll look to manage this at 50% ...

NaughtyPines NaughtyPines WUBA, D, 4 days ago
WUBA: THE WEEK AHEAD:  EARNINGS AND A PERSISTENTLY LOW VIX
53 2 3
WUBA, D
THE WEEK AHEAD: EARNINGS AND A PERSISTENTLY LOW VIX

If you're going to play anything next week premium selling wise, it's going to be in earnings, because that's all that's really out there volatility-wise. The VIX remains persistently low here, and running a screen for exchange-traded funds with >70% implied volatility rank, and >35% implied volatility yields absolutely nothing. Here's what showed up on my radar ...

NaughtyPines NaughtyPines TMUS, D, 11 days ago
TMUS: NEXT WEEK: IF LAST WEEK WAS SLIM, THIS WEEK IS "SLIMMER" PICKINS
50 0 9
TMUS, D
NEXT WEEK: IF LAST WEEK WAS SLIM, THIS WEEK IS "SLIMMER" PICKINS

There are a few names popping up on my radar for earnings plays, but when I "look behind the curtain," they aren't that attractive ... . TEVA, for example, announces on Monday, but it's an ADR, so it could be before market open or after market close or, indeed, not at all, but on some other day. It's tough to put on a volatility contraction play when you don't ...

NaughtyPines NaughtyPines SPY, D, Long , 13 days ago
SPY: TRADE IDEA: SPY MAY 19TH 212/MARCH 17TH 224 SHORT PUT DIAGONAL
102 0 8
SPY, D Long
TRADE IDEA: SPY MAY 19TH 212/MARCH 17TH 224 SHORT PUT DIAGONAL

Here, I'm looking to add some long delta to my portfolio, although it's also good as a stand alone trade in this low volatility environment. The short-dated put is being sold at the ~20 delta strike, the long-dated one at the ~15, so I'm picking up about 5.00 positive delta/contract from this setup. Unfortunately, with diagonals, we're not able to precisely ...

NaughtyPines NaughtyPines ATVI, D, 15 days ago
ATVI: TRADE IDEA: ATVI FEB 17TH 34/38.5/40/44.5 IRON CONDOR
69 0 3
ATVI, D
TRADE IDEA: ATVI FEB 17TH 34/38.5/40/44.5 IRON CONDOR

ATVI announces earnings tomorrow after market close, so look to put on a play in the waning hours of the NY sesh ... . Its implied volatility rank is >70%, and its background volatility is on the cusp of 50% ... . Metrics: Probability of Profit: 50%* Max Profit: $231/contract Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: $219/contract Theta: 11.33/contract Delta: ...

NaughtyPines NaughtyPines NVDA, D, 16 days ago
NVDA: OPENING: NVDA 100/105/140/145 IRON CONDOR
129 0 10
NVDA, D
OPENING: NVDA 100/105/140/145 IRON CONDOR

... for a 1.57/contract credit. (Earnings; High IVR/High IV). I fiddled with various setups long enough ... . Here, I'm going out farther in time than I usually like to go with an earnings play in order to give myself time to be right. Will look to manage to 50% max profit. Metrics: Probability of Profit: 63% Max Profit: $157/contract Max Loss: ...

NaughtyPines NaughtyPines NVDA, D, 18 days ago
NVDA: THE WEEK AHEAD -- NVDA, XRT, AND THE VIX
108 0 3
NVDA, D
THE WEEK AHEAD -- NVDA, XRT, AND THE VIX

If you're a premium seller, you're probably doing a bit of hand-sitting here (again) with VIX again at sub-12 levels. There are, however, a few things that could prove productive ... . NVDA: With a six-month implied volatility rank of 85% and general background implied volatility of 55%, it's ripe for a volatility contraction play. They announce earnings on ...

NaughtyPines NaughtyPines XOP, D, 21 days ago
XOP: TRADE IDEA: XOP MARCH 17TH 36/40/40/44 IRON FLY
31 0 4
XOP, D
TRADE IDEA: XOP MARCH 17TH 36/40/40/44 IRON FLY

Looking for petro to zombie about in here in the short term ... . Implied volatility rank isn't as high as I'd like it, but background vol is one of the higher ones out there for exchange traded funds. Metrics: Max Profit: $242/contract Max Loss: $158/contract Break Evens: 37.58/42.42 Notes: Will look to manage at north of 25% max profit.

NaughtyPines NaughtyPines SPX, D, 21 days ago
SPX: OPTIONS TIP: "CHEAP CALLS" HERE MAY NOT BE "SMART" ... DEPENDING
46 0 4
SPX, D
OPTIONS TIP: "CHEAP CALLS" HERE MAY NOT BE "SMART" ... DEPENDING

Bad advice in part; good advice in part; hiding the ball in part. http://finance.yahoo.com/news/volati...213649448.html The good part: cover your stock/equity positions with short calls. This will smooth out your P&L somewhat and protect you -- albeit not completely -- from down side risk while reducing cost basis in your shares. Unfortunately, they don't want to ...

NaughtyPines NaughtyPines VIX, D, 23 days ago
VIX: OPENING: VIX MAY 17TH 16/19 SHORT CALL VERTICAL
27 0 3
VIX, D
OPENING: VIX MAY 17TH 16/19 SHORT CALL VERTICAL

... for a .77 ($77/contract) credit. Another "Term Structure" trade (See Post Below). Farther out in time than I like to go, which means I'll probably regret it in short order.

NaughtyPines NaughtyPines X, D, 24 days ago
X: X EARNINGS SHORT STRANGLE/IRON FLY
70 3 7
X, D
X EARNINGS SHORT STRANGLE/IRON FLY

X announces earnings tomorrow (Tuesday) after market close, and with its implied volatility rank and implied volatility metrics, it's ripe for a volatility contraction play. Here are two possible setups, which naturally might need to be tweaked this way or that depending on price movement intraday tomorrow. Feb 17th 29/38 Short Strangle Metrics Probability of ...

NaughtyPines NaughtyPines VIX, D, a month ago
VIX: THE WEEK AHEAD: X, FB, VIX
92 0 6
VIX, D
THE WEEK AHEAD: X, FB, VIX

Running through my implied volatility screens, it doesn't look like next week looks very promising for premium selling at the moment. A couple of earnings play possibles are out there, however, one of which is X, whose 6-month implied volatility rank is at 78, with a background implied volatility of 69, which means my earnings play/volatility contraction "smell ...

NaughtyPines NaughtyPines VIX, D, a month ago
VIX: TRADE IDEA: VIX MARCH 22ND 11.5/13.5 LONG CALL VERTICAL
41 0 6
VIX, D
TRADE IDEA: VIX MARCH 22ND 11.5/13.5 LONG CALL VERTICAL

Truth be told, I'm not a "debit spread" guy, namely because I look at them as "one and dones" -- they either work or they don't; rolling these out for duration generally costs more money, and I don't like paying to roll, so I look at them as "one shots." Here, I looked for a risk one to make one metric for the setup ... . Metrics: Max Profit: $105/contract Max ...

NaughtyPines NaughtyPines SPY, D, a month ago
SPY: OPENING: SPY APRIL 21ST 211/214/234/237 IRON CONDOR
172 1 12
SPY, D
OPENING: SPY APRIL 21ST 211/214/234/237 IRON CONDOR

I tweaked the setup a bit from yesterday, and got filled for a 1.01/contract credit. Metrics (Currently): Max Profit: $106/contract Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: $194/contract Break Evens: 212.94/235.06 Delta: -5.65/contract Theta: .71/contract Notes: I probably could have been a touch more patient and gone with a fill slightly above the mid. In any event, ...

NaughtyPines NaughtyPines VIX, D, a month ago
VIX: THE WEEK AHEAD: EARNINGS TAKE THE STAGE
46 0 3
VIX, D
THE WEEK AHEAD: EARNINGS TAKE THE STAGE

You wouldn't have known it last week with all the inauguration hoopla, but we're in earnings season. Now that the hoopla's in the rear view mirror, earnings will take the market stage (and, yes, a bit of digesting of what all "the hoopla" meant). SPY et al. (Broad Market) From a premium seller's perspective, "SPY and friends" continues to be an unproductive ...

NaughtyPines NaughtyPines SPY, D, a month ago
SPY: TRADE IDEA: SPY APRIL 21ST 209/212/235/238 IRON CONDOR
32 0 5
SPY, D
TRADE IDEA: SPY APRIL 21ST 209/212/235/238 IRON CONDOR

Going out to April for my core index exchange-traded fund position, since volatility "locally" (<45 DTE) blows here. Very close to getting 1/3rd the width of the wings; it'll have to do ... . Metrics: Probability of Profit: 54% Max Profit: $92/contract Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: $208/contract Break Evens: 211.08/235.92 Theta: .67/contract Delta: ...

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