NaughtyPines

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About me Focusing on IVR (Implied Volatility Rank), I look to sell premium, focusing primarily on indices (SPY/DIA/IWM) and treasuries (TLT/TBT) using short vertical spreads, iron condors, and short strangles.
Joined United States
I trade volatility, not direction.
Markets Allocation
77 % stocks 9 % indices 1 % forex 13 % other
Top Mentioned Symbols
SPY 7% | 52 SPX 5% | 38 IWM 4% | 31 VIX 4% | 29
NaughtyPines NaughtyPines XOP, W, Long ,
XOP: XOP: THREE BULLISH ASSUMPTION PLAYS IN ADVANCE OF OPEC TALKS
24 0 8
XOP, W Long
XOP: THREE BULLISH ASSUMPTION PLAYS IN ADVANCE OF OPEC TALKS

With XOP hanging around horizontal support here and with OPEC output cut extension talks and jawboning on the near-term horizon, it only makes sense to talk about petro plays with a bullish assumption, particularly due to XOP implied volatility rank (in the 74th percentile over the past six months) with background implied volatility at 34. Here are ...

NaughtyPines NaughtyPines XOP, W,
XOP: THE WEEK AHEAD: HPQ, LOW, BBY, GME EARNINGS; XOP, EWZ (NON)
35 0 6
XOP, W
THE WEEK AHEAD: HPQ, LOW, BBY, GME EARNINGS; XOP, EWZ (NON)

EARNINGS HPQ, LOW, BBY, and GME are all up for earnings announcements. Out of these, BBY and GME appear to be the best candidates for premium selling, given their implied volatility rank and background implied volatility metrics, although virtually every liquid underlying with an earnings announcement bears watching; implied volatility can pop at the last ...

NaughtyPines NaughtyPines XOP, W,
XOP: OPTIONS TIP: TRADING WHILE ON THE ROAD
18 0 6
XOP, W
OPTIONS TIP: TRADING WHILE ON THE ROAD

With summer somewhat upon us and with my wife making various plans (she's basically the family "travel agent"/"arranger"), I'm looking to wind down "higher attention span" setups and get into lower key/lower maintenance setups here so that I'm not driving her nuts on the road. "Hey, I just need to pull off here for a few and look at a few trades ... " gets pretty ...

NaughtyPines NaughtyPines EWZ, D,
EWZ: OPENING: EWZ JULY 21ST 26/28/38.5/40.5 IRON CONDOR
18 0 7
EWZ, D
OPENING: EWZ JULY 21ST 26/28/38.5/40.5 IRON CONDOR

... for a .61 credit. With EWZ caving heftily here and implied volatility popping, I'm going back to the Brazilian well narrow and small, since I can foresee this having some volatility in it for a bit, in which case I may want to add to the position. Metrics: POP%: 63% Max Profit: $61/contract Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: $139/contract BE's: ...

NaughtyPines NaughtyPines IWM, D,
IWM: OPENING: IWM JUNE 16TH 128/131/141/142 "DOUBLE DOUBLE"
38 0 7
IWM, D
OPENING: IWM JUNE 16TH 128/131/141/142 "DOUBLE DOUBLE"

This is basically an iron condor variation where you double up the number of contracts on the call side while going narrower with the call side spread. Due to "the math" of that, there is no additional buying power effect, but you collect some additional credit ... . Metrics: Probability of Profit: 57% Max Profit: $76/contract Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: ...

NaughtyPines NaughtyPines OIH, D, Long ,
OIH: OPENING: OIH JUNE 16TH 24/27/27/28 BROKEN WING BUTTERFLY
28 1 6
OIH, D Long
OPENING: OIH JUNE 16TH 24/27/27/28 BROKEN WING BUTTERFLY

A slight variation on a Super Bull (short put vertical financing a long put vertical; bullish assumption). Metrics: POP%: 71% Max Profit: 1.12/contract Max Loss/BPE: 1.88/contract Break Even: 25.88 Notes: There are a couple of different ways to work this intratrade: (a) take the long put vert off in profit, leave the short put vert to ride; (b) the inverse of ...

NaughtyPines NaughtyPines FXE, D, Short ,
FXE: OPENING: FXE JUNE 16TH 102/103/105/107 IRON CONDOR
27 0 6
FXE, D Short
OPENING: FXE JUNE 16TH 102/103/105/107 IRON CONDOR

Basically, a synthetic short FXE position with some put side flexibility in the event that I am totally wrong ... . Metrics: POP%: 46% Max Profit: $95/contract Max Loss/BPE: $105/contract BE's at 102.04/105.96 Theta: .38 Delta: -22 Notes: Shooting for 50% max ... .

NaughtyPines NaughtyPines NVDA, 240,
NVDA: NVDA MAY 19th 94.5/95.5/110/113 IRON CONDOR (PRELIM)
102 0 7
NVDA, 240
NVDA MAY 19th 94.5/95.5/110/113 IRON CONDOR (PRELIM)

A high implied vol rank/implied vol, earnings volatility contraction play with no downside risk ... Metrics: POP%: 72% Max Profit: $101/contract Max Loss/BPE: $199/contract BE at 111.01 (no downside risk). Notes: A good finish remains between the short strikes (95.5/113). Attempting to avoid getting "AMD'd" here ... . Will look to take profit at 50% max. ...

NaughtyPines NaughtyPines FXE, D,
FXE: THE WEEK AHEAD: FXE OR /E6, P, NVDA, AND M
73 0 7
FXE, D
THE WEEK AHEAD: FXE OR /E6, P, NVDA, AND M

With the French elections now in the rear-view mirror, the Euro is at 1.10-ish at Asian open, and I'm looking to watch and short /E6 or FXE after seeing how far the spot forex pair goes here. Typically, the currency doesn't move all that much in the Asian session, so I kind of want to see what the European market does with the news before committing to a short ...

NaughtyPines NaughtyPines EWY, 240,
EWY: OPENING: EWY JUNE 16TH 58/63/63/68 IRON FLY
10 0 3
EWY, 240
OPENING: EWY JUNE 16TH 58/63/63/68 IRON FLY

Ended up going with the fly. Filled for a 2.59 credit. Metrics: POP%: 42% Max Profit: 2.59/contract Max Loss: 2.41/contract BE's at 60.41/65.59 Theta: 1.54 Delta: -6.72 Notes: Shooting for something north of 25% max ... .

NaughtyPines NaughtyPines AAPL, 240,
AAPL: OPENING: AAPL MAY 12TH 137/140/155/157.5 IRON CONDOR
42 0 5
AAPL, 240
OPENING: AAPL MAY 12TH 137/140/155/157.5 IRON CONDOR

... for a .57/contract credit. Here, I'm opting for a higher POP% over max profit (there are always trade offs). Metrics: POP%: 69% Max Profit: $57/contract Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: $243 BE's at 139.43/155.57 Notes: I'll look to take profit somewhere north of 50% max ... .

NaughtyPines NaughtyPines EWY, 240,
EWY: TWO EWY (S. KOREA ETF) TRADE IDEAS
17 0 6
EWY, 240
TWO EWY (S. KOREA ETF) TRADE IDEAS

I haven't traded this particular instrument before. For obvious reasons, now seems like a perfect time. The first of the two trades is a short strangle, with the shorts set up at the ~30 delta strike: JUNE 16TH 60/65 SHORT STRANGLE POP%: 59% Max Profit: $140/contract Max Loss: Undefined Break Evens: 58.60/65.82 Theta: 3.01 Delta: .78 The second's a defined ...

NaughtyPines NaughtyPines FXE, D, Short ,
FXE: FXE: TWO BEARISH OPTIONS SETUPS
27 0 5
FXE, D Short
FXE: TWO BEARISH OPTIONS SETUPS

FXE JUNE 16TH 105/108 SHORT CALL VERTICAL The first of the two setups is a "static" short call vertical with a break even around 106 resistance. Metrics: Probability of Profit: 58% Max Profit: $120/contract Max Loss: $180/contract BE: 106.20 Notes: Look to manage at 50% profit. FXE JUNE 16TH 107 SHORT CALL/SEPT 15TH 110 LONG CALL DIAGONAL This particular ...

NaughtyPines NaughtyPines EWY, D,
EWY: THE WEEK AHEAD: EWY, FEZ, FXE, AND OIH/XOP/XLE
22 0 4
EWY, D
THE WEEK AHEAD: EWY, FEZ, FXE, AND OIH/XOP/XLE

With VIX in another ebb and a paucity of high quality premium selling earnings plays in the making for next week with both high implied volatility rank and high implied volatility, I'm looking at exchange traded funds instead for potential plays. For instance, EWY, the South Korea exchange traded fund, makes sense in the current geopolitical environment, and its ...

NaughtyPines NaughtyPines X, D,
X: OPENING: X MAY 5TH 27/31/31/35 IRON FLY
104 6 7
X, D
OPENING: X MAY 5TH 27/31/31/35 IRON FLY

... for a 2.23 credit. Metrics: Max Profit: $223/contract Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: $177 BE's: 28.77/33.23 Theta: 6.1 Delta: -1.06 Notes: Earnings announcement today after market close. Will look to manage at 25% max.

NaughtyPines NaughtyPines TLT, D, Long ,
TLT: OPENING: TLT JUNE 16TH 117/MAY 19TH 119.5 PUT DIAGONAL
36 1 4
TLT, D Long
OPENING: TLT JUNE 16TH 117/MAY 19TH 119.5 PUT DIAGONAL

Getting long bonds here via a net credit diagonal that I filled for a .01 credit. For diagonals and calendars, there aren't much in metrics to look at, since how much you make will depend on a wide variety of factors (i.e., IV, underlying price movement, etc.): Theta: 1.02 Delta: 7.24 Notes: The idea here is basically to reduce your cost basis in the long ...

NaughtyPines NaughtyPines FXE, D, Short ,
FXE: TRADE IDEA: FXE JUNE 16TH 105/108 (?) SHORT CALL VERTICAL
47 0 5
FXE, D Short
TRADE IDEA: FXE JUNE 16TH 105/108 (?) SHORT CALL VERTICAL

Post-French elections, the fairly obvious thing to do is to think about shorting the Euro here or its proxy, FXE. Unfortunately, we don't know exactly where FXE will open, but if the EURUSD chart is any indication, it will be in the vicinity of previous resistance at 105-ish. Similarly, we don't know exactly what this spread will price at, so I can't provide the ...

NaughtyPines NaughtyPines AA, D,
AA: TRADE IDEA: AA MAY 5TH 28/32/32/36 IRON FLY
50 0 5
AA, D
TRADE IDEA: AA MAY 5TH 28/32/32/36 IRON FLY

AA (implied volatility rank 73/implied volatility 48) announces earnings on Monday after market close, so look to put on a play before the end of the session to take advantage of the post-announcement volatility crush. Metrics: Max Profit: $210/contract Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: $190/contract Break Evens: 29.90/34.10 Theta: 4.96 Delta: 3.51 Notes: This is a ...

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