NaughtyPines

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About me Focusing on IVR (Implied Volatility Rank), I look to sell premium, focusing primarily on indices (SPY/DIA/IWM) and treasuries (TLT/TBT) using short vertical spreads, iron condors, and short strangles.
Joined United States
Markets Allocation
79 % stocks 8 % indices 1 % forex 12 % other
Top Mentioned Symbols
SPY 7% | 60 VIX 4% | 39 VXX 4% | 38 SPX 4% | 38
NaughtyPines NaughtyPines TLT, 1W, Short ,
TLT: OPENING: TLT AUG/SEPT 119/126 DOWNWARD PUT DIAGONAL
32 3 8
TLT, 1W Short
OPENING: TLT AUG/SEPT 119/126 DOWNWARD PUT DIAGONAL

... for a 4.83/contract debit. Fading the treasuries move higher ... again. Here are the metrics: Max Loss On Setup: $483 Max Profit On Setup: $217 Break Even on Setup: 121.17 Debit Paid/Spread Width Ratio: 69% Theta: .32 Delta: -42.26 Notes: Will look to take profit at 20% max. Ordinarily, I like to do these skip month (e.g., Aug/Oct) to give me an ...

NaughtyPines NaughtyPines XLU, 1W,
XLU: THE WEEK AHEAD: XLU, XRT, EEM, FXI DIRECTIONALS, EWZ PREMIUM
36 0 10
XLU, 1W
THE WEEK AHEAD: XLU, XRT, EEM, FXI DIRECTIONALS, EWZ PREMIUM

With volatility at somewhat of an ebb here, I'm eyeing exchange-traded funds for directional plays in lieu of just hand sitting. The setup pictured here is of a XLU diagonal with the long dated option out in Dec, the front month in August. I would prefer setting this up as a skip month (Aug/Oct), but an Oct expiry isn't available yet. Here are the metrics: ...

NaughtyPines NaughtyPines PBR, 1D,
PBR: THE WEEK AHEAD: PBR, USO, GE, T, ORCL, EWZ
107 0 6
PBR, 1D
THE WEEK AHEAD: PBR, USO, GE, T, ORCL, EWZ

With various things Brazilian in implosion mode, it's no surprise that PBR and EWZ have high implied volatility here. PBR: Bullish Assumption Setups: The July 20th 30 delta 9 put is paying .43/contract, resulting in an 8.57 break even, which isn't very compelling, but might appeal to some smaller account holders who are willing to hold the short put until near ...

NaughtyPines NaughtyPines USO, 1D,
USO: OPENING: USO JULY/OCT 10/13/13/16 DOUBLE DIAGONAL
74 0 7
USO, 1D
OPENING: USO JULY/OCT 10/13/13/16 DOUBLE DIAGONAL

... for a .77/contract credit. Truth be told, I kind of hate USO, with XOP being my go-to for petro-based plays. That being said, with its high implied volatility rank (65) and its decent background volatility (31%), I figured I'd throw a "can't hurt much" trade on here as a demo trade for a "safety tape" setup. The basic notion of a "safety tape" trade is to ...

NaughtyPines NaughtyPines XLE, 1W,
XLE: THE WEEK AHEAD: XLE, XOP
64 0 6
XLE, 1W
THE WEEK AHEAD: XLE, XOP

With this quarter's earnings pretty much in the rear view mirror, there isn't much single name to play here, particularly since we start right back up again with earnings around the July monthly. Consequently, if you're going to play single name, you may get caught in a volatility expansion running into earnings, so if you absolutely can't resist the urge to pay ...

NaughtyPines NaughtyPines IWM, 1D,
IWM: THE WEEK AHEAD: HPQ, COST, XOP, OIH, EWZ, IWM
85 2 7
IWM, 1D
THE WEEK AHEAD: HPQ, COST, XOP, OIH, EWZ, IWM

HPQ announces tomorrow after market close; COST on Thursday after market. Neither underlying's rank/implied vol metrics are particularly compelling, however, with the former's implied at 29.6%, the latter at 23.5%. Even so, the 68% probability of profit, ~20 delta COST June 15th 188/207.5 short strangle's paying 2.31; managed early (<50% max), that could make ...

NaughtyPines NaughtyPines EWZ, 1D,
EWZ: OPENING: EWZ JULY 20TH 33/39/39/45 IRON FLY
78 0 7
EWZ, 1D
OPENING: EWZ JULY 20TH 33/39/39/45 IRON FLY

... for a 3.22/contract credit ... . Metrics: Probability of Profit: 50% Max Profit: $322/contract Max Loss: $278/contract Theta: 1.71/contract Delta: -7.06/contract Break Evens: 35.78/42.22 Notes: With a background implied of around 31%, it's the highest vol exchange-traded fund out there. As with a short straddle, I'll look to manage the trade early (25% ...

NaughtyPines NaughtyPines TSLA, 1W,
TSLA: THE WEEK AHEAD: TSLA, RIG, X, EWZ
176 0 9
TSLA, 1W
THE WEEK AHEAD: TSLA, RIG, X, EWZ

With the vast majority of options-liquid earnings plays in the rear view mirror, premium selling becomes a search for just plain Jane high implied volatility underlyings. This week, TSLA, RIG, X round out out the top implied volatility single names; EWZ, the exchange-traded fund top implied volatility play. Here are some possible nondirectional setups, which are ...

NaughtyPines NaughtyPines SLV, 1W, Long ,
SLV: OPENING: SLV JULY 20TH 16 SHORT/OCT 19TH 13 LONG PUT DIAGONAL
75 0 7
SLV, 1W Long
OPENING: SLV JULY 20TH 16 SHORT/OCT 19TH 13 LONG PUT DIAGONAL

... for an .79/contract credit. Taking a directional shot here on silver weakness. In essence, it's a synthetic covered call with the short put aspect of the setup around the 70 delta. The long put is thrown in to bring in buying power effect over the naked for those that are working in a cash secured environment. On margin, you won't be saving much in buying ...

NaughtyPines NaughtyPines DISH, 1W, Long ,
DISH: TRADING IDEA: TWO BULLISH ASSUMPTION PLAYS IN DISH
67 2 5
DISH, 1W Long
TRADING IDEA: TWO BULLISH ASSUMPTION PLAYS IN DISH

DISH announces earnings on Tuesday before market open and is a state of high volatility (>50%). While you can naturally go with the plain Jane volatility contraction play around earnings (short strangle), there might be an opportunity here to catch it at significant lows while simultaneously taking advantage of risk premium present here which will lower your cost ...

NaughtyPines NaughtyPines DIS, 1W,
DIS: THE WEEK AHEAD: DIS, AKS, P, TSLA, TWTR, X, MU, DISH
156 2 5
DIS, 1W
THE WEEK AHEAD: DIS, AKS, P, TSLA, TWTR, X, MU, DISH

With most of the earnings heavy hitters in the rear view mirror, there isn't much to trade this week of quality from an earnings announcement volatility contraction standpoint, with DIS being the standout name. DIS announces on Tuesday after market close with a 30-day implied volatility of 25%, which is in the upper half of its 52-week range. The May 18th 96/97 ...

NaughtyPines NaughtyPines EFA, 1W,
EFA: OPENING: EFA JUNE/SEPT 66/71/71/76 DOUBLE DIAGONAL
27 0 5
EFA, 1W
OPENING: EFA JUNE/SEPT 66/71/71/76 DOUBLE DIAGONAL

... for an .83/contract credit. Notes: I seem to be on a double diagonal kick of late ... . Will look to take profit at 20% of the width of the wings/roll the short straddle aspect at 25% max or at 21-25 DTE.

NaughtyPines NaughtyPines XBI, 1W,
XBI: OPENING: XBI JUNE 15TH 77/80/93/96 IRON CONDOR
53 0 8
XBI, 1W
OPENING: XBI JUNE 15TH 77/80/93/96 IRON CONDOR

... for a 1.00/contract credit. Metrics: Probability of Profit: 57% Max Profit: $100/contract Max Loss: $200/contract Break Evens: 79.00/94.00 Delta: -.28 Notes: Will shoot to take profit at 50% max ... .

NaughtyPines NaughtyPines EEM, 1D,
EEM: OPENING: EEM JUNE/SEPT 42.5/46.5/46.5/50.5 DOUBLE DIAGONAL
104 16 9
EEM, 1D
OPENING: EEM JUNE/SEPT 42.5/46.5/46.5/50.5 DOUBLE DIAGONAL

... for an .79 credit/contract. Roll the short straddle aspect at >25% max; look to exit for 20% of the wing width ... .

NaughtyPines NaughtyPines ROKU, 1D,
ROKU: OPTIONS TIP: BUYING POWER EFFECT REDUCTION/BUDGETING WITH LONGS
132 1 5
ROKU, 1D
OPTIONS TIP: BUYING POWER EFFECT REDUCTION/BUDGETING WITH LONGS

When playing with a small, cash secured account, buying power effect can limit one's ability to trade since even something as basic as the 30-delta 27 short put in ROKU in the June cycle pictured here can tie up quite a bit of buying power. The June 15th 27 short put brings in a nice 1.27/contract in credit, but comes with a cash secured price tag of the strike ...

NaughtyPines NaughtyPines TSLA, 1W,
TSLA: THE WEEK AHEAD: TSLA EARNINGS, EEM
165 0 6
TSLA, 1W
THE WEEK AHEAD: TSLA EARNINGS, EEM

Although AAPL and GILD announce earnings next week, the only earnings announcement that interests me from a premium selling standpoint is TSLA, with a background implied volatility of over 65%. The 73% probability of profit May 11th 255/330 short strangle is paying 5.83 at the mid (off hours quotes) with its defined risk counterpart, the 68% probability of profit ...

NaughtyPines NaughtyPines TLT, 1W, Long ,
TLT: OPENING: TLT SEPT 21ST 113 LONG/JUNE 15TH 117 SHORT PUT DIAGONAL
55 0 5
TLT, 1W Long
OPENING: TLT SEPT 21ST 113 LONG/JUNE 15TH 117 SHORT PUT DIAGONAL

... for a .07/contract credit. Taking a directional shot here at long-term horizontal support, with some flexibility to roll the short put aspect down in the event I'm wrong. Notes: Will roll the short put aspect "as is" on 50% decrease in value and look to exit for 20% the width of the spread in profit.

NaughtyPines NaughtyPines XLF, 1W,
XLF: OPENING: XLF June/Sept 24/27/28/31 Double Net Credit Diagonal
52 0 6
XLF, 1W
OPENING: XLF June/Sept 24/27/28/31 Double Net Credit Diagonal

... for a .58/contract credit. Basically, this is a calendarized iron condor or iron fly, where you roll just the short strangle/short straddle body of the setup for cost basis reduction, while keeping the long strangle aspect in place for purposes of defining the risk ... . Take profit is somewhat subjective, but I start to look to bail on the trade at >20% of ...

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