NaughtyPines

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About me Focusing on IVR (Implied Volatility Rank), I look to sell premium, focusing primarily on indices (SPY/DIA/IWM) and treasuries (TLT/TBT) using short vertical spreads, iron condors, and short strangles.
Last visit Joined 2 years ago United States
I trade volatility, not direction.
Markets Allocation
77 % stocks 10 % indices 1 % forex 12 % other
Top Mentioned Symbols
SPY 7% | 49 SPX 5% | 38 IWM 4% | 30 VXX 3% | 24
NaughtyPines NaughtyPines SNAP, D, Long , 17 hours ago
SNAP: TRADE IDEA: A SNAP POOR MAN'S
81 0 3
SNAP, D Long
TRADE IDEA: A SNAP POOR MAN'S

One thing I'm certain about, and that's that I don't want to buy SNAP stock here with its having whipsawed between 29+ and 19 in the short time since its IPO. But I might want to acquire it later once it settles down -- as with all things, preferably at a lower price than 22.74. A Poor Man's Covered Call gives me the flexibility to play SNAP, give me the option ...

NaughtyPines NaughtyPines SNAP, D, 2 days ago
SNAP: THE WEEK AHEAD: SNAP, FEZ, XLV, AND XRT
28 2 6
SNAP, D
THE WEEK AHEAD: SNAP, FEZ, XLV, AND XRT

With four weeks or so until the next batch of earnings, I'm briefly turning my attention to exchange-traded funds to see if there's anything I can play to bridge the gap between earnings seasons. As with the previous several weeks, there isn't much; only three are near or above the 70th percentile for implied volatility over the past six months: FEZ, with an ...

NaughtyPines NaughtyPines VIX, D, 3 days ago
VIX: OPENING: VIX JULY 19TH 16/19 SHORT CALL VERTICAL
24 0 8
VIX, D
OPENING: VIX JULY 19TH 16/19 SHORT CALL VERTICAL

... for a .75 ($75)/contract credit. Another "Term Structure" trade (See Posts, Below). Since the beginning of the year, all of them have been setup as 16/19's or 17/20's and have been filled for around .75/contract. Naturally, I look to set these up in expiries of 90 days or less; 120 days, after all, is an awfully long time to "get your candy." That being ...

NaughtyPines NaughtyPines XOP, D, Long , 4 days ago
XOP: OPENING: XOP APRIL 21ST 33.5/JUNE 16TH 30 PUT DIAGONAL
14 0 3
XOP, D Long
OPENING: XOP APRIL 21ST 33.5/JUNE 16TH 30 PUT DIAGONAL

... for a .03 db. At its outset, you short put is basically completely "financing" the cost of your long put (but for the $3 it cost to put the trade on). Your goal is to roll the short option forward for duration, collecting credits along the way and to exit the setup for a debit that is less than what you collected in credits (as you would do with any credit ...

NaughtyPines NaughtyPines NKE, D, 5 days ago
NKE: OPENING: NKE MARCH 31ST 54.5/58.5/59/63 IRON CONDOR
43 0 7
NKE, D
OPENING: NKE MARCH 31ST 54.5/58.5/59/63 IRON CONDOR

... for a 2.23 credit. (Earnings volatility contraction play). Metrics: Probability of Profit: Coin Flip Max Profit: $223/contract Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: $177/contract Break Evens: 56.27/61.23 Notes: I filled this at open, but price has moved down somewhat, so you may want to adjust the setup by a half strike or so. In any event, this thing's so ...

NaughtyPines NaughtyPines FDX, D, 5 days ago
FDX: OPENING: FDX MARCH 31ST 177.5/182.5/202.5/207.5 IRON CONDOR
21 0 7
FDX, D
OPENING: FDX MARCH 31ST 177.5/182.5/202.5/207.5 IRON CONDOR

... for a 1.40 credit. (Earnings; Volatility Contraction Play). Metrics: Probability of Profit: 60% Max Profit: $140/contract Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: $360/contract Break Evens: 181.10/203.90 Notes: Will look to manage at 50% of max.

NaughtyPines NaughtyPines SPY, D, Long , 7 days ago
SPY: LONG-TERM ACCOUNTS: 2017 401(K)/IRA SPY SHARE ACQUISITION LEVELS
88 0 11
SPY, D Long
LONG-TERM ACCOUNTS: 2017 401(K)/IRA SPY SHARE ACQUISITION LEVELS

For what seems like eons in the scheme of things, I've been working an IRA that is predominantly made up of SPY covered calls. Each month, I basically just look at selling calls against my shares to reduce cost basis in them and to give me a bit of some downside protection in the event of a sell off. Additionally, every quarter, I look at the long-term charts ...

NaughtyPines NaughtyPines FDX, D, 7 days ago
FDX: THE WEEK AHEAD: FDX, NKE EARNINGS
55 0 8
FDX, D
THE WEEK AHEAD: FDX, NKE EARNINGS

With fourth quarter earnings announcements trailing off majorly here, there isn't much in the way of earnings to play, with the earnings of note for premium sellers being FDX, which announces on 3/21 after market close, and NKE (same). FDX is toward the top of its implied volatility range over the past six months (85), with NKE in the 63rd percentile over that ...

NaughtyPines NaughtyPines VRX, 120, Long , 12 days ago
VRX: OPENING: VRX MONIED COVERED CALL
34 0 4
VRX, 120 Long
OPENING: VRX MONIED COVERED CALL

I'm fading the Ackman dumpage here with a small position bet that price will stay clear of $10 through April 21st expiry ... . Bought 100 Shares Sold April 21st 10 Call Whole Package: 9.38 Max Profit: $62 per 100 shares/contract Max Loss/BP Effect: $938 per 100 shares/contract

NaughtyPines NaughtyPines SPY, D, Long , 13 days ago
SPY: TRADE IDEA: SPY APRIL 21ST 230/233 SHORT PUT VERT
89 0 8
SPY, D Long
TRADE IDEA: SPY APRIL 21ST 230/233 SHORT PUT VERT

This is a defined risk variation on a Tom Preston (Dough/TastyWorks) play, where he sells the monthly SPY put with a 68% probability of expiring worthless. He generally does this on the Monday following the monthly opex; I'm doing it a few days early ... . While I'm using it as a delta hedge of a core SPY position (I'm in need of a touch of long delta), it's ...

NaughtyPines NaughtyPines VIX, D, 15 days ago
VIX: THE WEEK AHEAD: IT'S EYEBALLS ON THE FED
34 2 4
VIX, D
THE WEEK AHEAD: IT'S EYEBALLS ON THE FED

Ugh. Doing my weekly market review/screening and there is literally nothing high IVR/high IV to play ... . Nada ... . Zilch ... . One option is to sell puts in one of these "just high IV" underlyings: VRX: April 21st 11 goes for .56 AKS: April 21st 7 goes for .31 AMD: April 21st 13 goes for .66 WLL: April 21st 8 goes for .28 CLF April 21st 8 goes for .34 X: ...

NaughtyPines NaughtyPines ATVI, D, 17 days ago
ATVI: OPENING: ATVI COVERED PUT
90 7 6
ATVI, D
OPENING: ATVI COVERED PUT

This is a continuation of a trade that started as an earnings play iron fly (see post below). There are a couple of reasons I went this particular way, as opposed to attempting to continue to work the setup "as is." First, the March 17th 40 short call was deep in the money. Even assuming I could roll to improve that strike a bit, it would still be deep in the ...

NaughtyPines NaughtyPines URBN, D, 19 days ago
URBN: OPENING: URBN MARCH 17TH 21.5/25.5/25.5/29.5 IRON FLY
34 0 2
URBN, D
OPENING: URBN MARCH 17TH 21.5/25.5/25.5/29.5 IRON FLY

... for a 2.24 ($224)/contract credit. (High IVR/High IV; Post Earnings Volatility Contraction Play). Metrics: Max Profit: $224/contract Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: $177/contract Break Evens: 23.27/27.73 Theta: 6.12 Delta: -4.33 Notes: I'm looking to manage this at 25% max profit.

NaughtyPines NaughtyPines SPY, D, 21 days ago
SPY: OPTION TIP: SMALL ACCOUNT SHARE ACQUISITION/COST BASIS REDUCTION
57 1 6
SPY, D
OPTION TIP: SMALL ACCOUNT SHARE ACQUISITION/COST BASIS REDUCTION

Okay, so you don't have $2 million and you can't afford to buy 100 shares of SPY to do a full on 1-lot covered call. What to do? The answer: go smaller. In the pictured, albeit extreme example, I'm buying 1 share of SPY for 238.42 and selling an April 21st 244/247 short call vertical, for which I'll receive a $49 credit. From a cost basis reduction standpoint, ...

NaughtyPines NaughtyPines SPY, D, 21 days ago
SPY: OPTIONS TIP: THE NET CREDIT DIAGONAL
92 1 7
SPY, D
OPTIONS TIP: THE NET CREDIT DIAGONAL

If you're going to do diagonals without potentially taking it up the glory hole if price rips away from the setup, well, this is the way to do that. Unlike naked shorts or short verticals, diagonals benefit from volatility expansion, which makes them one of the go-to strategies in this low vol environment we're experiencing. To get into this setup, you sell the ...

NaughtyPines NaughtyPines VIX, D, 21 days ago
VIX: THE WEEK AHEAD: URBN  (WHAT?! THAT'S IT?!)
33 0 6
VIX, D
THE WEEK AHEAD: URBN (WHAT?! THAT'S IT?!)

Unfortunately, there isn't much next week earnings wise that renders itself to quality premium selling, with nothing appearing in screens where I'm looking for underlyings that are not only liquid from an options standpoint, but also whose implied volatility is at least in the 70th percentile over the past six months and background implied volatility is greater ...

NaughtyPines NaughtyPines ANF, D, a month ago
ANF: OPENING: ANF "MONIED" COVERED CALL
35 0 5
ANF, D
OPENING: ANF "MONIED" COVERED CALL

Here, I'm going covered call because ANF has a small divvy that I want to attempt to grab (.20/$20 per 100 shares), so I need to own the shares to do that. The record date is 3/3, so I will need to hold the shares until at least then. I'm going monied because I just don't trust this thing not to implode somewhat post earnings ... . Metrics: Probability of ...

NaughtyPines NaughtyPines BBY, D, a month ago
BBY: OPENING: BBY MARCH 10TH 38/42/47.5/51.5 IRON CONDOR
55 0 5
BBY, D
OPENING: BBY MARCH 10TH 38/42/47.5/51.5 IRON CONDOR

BBY announces earnings tomorrow before market open, so look to put on something today before market close to take advantage of the ensuing volatility contraction. Implied volatility rank is currently at 92 over the preceding six months, with implied volatility just shy of the 50% mark. I compared and contrasted going with my standard 20-delta iron condor, as ...

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