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Hi friends! Welcome to this update analysis on the US bond market, via the TLT ETF! Let's get right to it.
As many of my long-time followers know, I've been bearish on the bond market for quite some time. In February, I posted a chart calling for a fall to the low $100's. So, let's assess how things have been developing there. Looking at the monthly TLT chart, ...
U.S. equities bounce from initially being down 15 handles, but volatility is expected. However, is recent move expected? Yes, in my opinion, as markets are ultimately forced to re-price growth and inflation .
Step back from the earnings headlines because that's literally old news. Although Q3-18 earnings growth is up nearly 20 percent, over 60 percent of ...
Head and Shoulders patterns are the most over predicted one in existence, meant to suck in the Dumb Money before Kapow!!!!!! The market whips the other way, fleecing said Dumb Investors of their money… LOL
We’re all Turning Japanese, and long-term rates are going to Zero! Time to Get Long the TLT, so when all your Buddies are riding FAANG stocks to their ...
Just documenting my call here. I think it may rise 8-10% from here. A significant drop in bond yields awaits.
TLT is going higher, slowly but surerly. Since the big drop in the beginning of bloody October TLT has found strong support and formed a wedge. It is a rather medium-term opportunity than short-term. For now it seems so be bouncing off the upward-sloped trendline and we may see an end of this move in the range 114.74 - 115.
Although it still may go a few days ...
Hi friends! Today, I'd like to step away from crytpocurrenceis, to review a market has maintained my interest — bonds! Specifically, we're reviewing the weekly chart, for the TLT, which is the 20 year T-bond ETF. Personally, I have held long term put options against the TLT, for a couple months now. As you know, I don't particularly care too much for fundamental ...
TLT isn't at support yet. This is not good for a bullish scenario in stocks. Looks like everything is lining up for market weakness into Dec.
... for a .71/contract debit. Small bet that treasury sell-off is overdone here and/or there will be some risk-off running into mid-term elections.
Probability of Profit: 51%
Max Profit: 1.29/contract
Max Loss: .71/contract
Break Even: 112.71 (no downside risk)
Notes: Will begin to look at taking the entire setup off as a unit at 25% max. You can ...
TLT with a huge bearish signal
Fib resistance cluster in index area $TLT,
Yes the FED is raising rates, but this looks like a BUY to me personally based on he following thoughts:
- Falling wedge/Double bottom breakout on high volume
- Initially sold off intraday after the FED announcement, retraced and overcame selloff prices
- RSI down trend busted
- Held above neckline for 1 hour
Therefore I will give this a 51% chance of moving ...
Future Fed hikes almost priced-in
Flight to quality active
IS THIS IT?
AFTER WAITING FOR AN ENTIRE YEAR, WILL TREASURIES FINALLY BREAKDOWN???
Short Term Bullish Play to $120
Bond valuations being low means rates are high and thus stock become less attractive. simple economics. lets see if it recovers or the charts prove to be right (below declining MAs) and serious weakness is back in bonds.
Relationship between TLT and 30-yr yield