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About me Master Chartist, Investor, Trader, Advisor, Coach, Chat Room Host: Key Hidden Levels
Last visit Joined 5 years ago United States, CT 87spider www.tradingview.com
Join me in chat room "KEY HIDDEN LEVELS" https://www.tradingview.com/chat/#c8BzrhGRvXxGXWnJ
Markets Allocation
76 % stocks 6 % commodities 5 % indices 13 % other
Top Mentioned Symbols
SPY 8% | 86 TSLA 6% | 73 AAPL 2% | 31 TLT 2% | 29
timwest timwest PRO DIA, D, 2 days ago
DIA: Quiet Periods & Earnings Release Zones for DIA Dow Jones Indu
257 2 5
Quiet Periods & Earnings Release Zones for DIA Dow Jones Indu
Using the DJIA exchange traded portfolio $DIA, I am graphing the generalized 2-week quiet period in BRIGHT GREEN and the bulk majority of the earnings release dates in BRIGHT YELLOW so you can see when the market is discounting important, new information and when it has NO INFORMATION about new fundamentals. If I could grab all institutional upgrades and graph them in a meaningful way I would. But for now, this gives you a much more LOGICAL VIEW of the DJIA Index as it relates to important time windows. The quiet period is 2-weeks for each company, so the "quiet period" as graphed is not entirely perfect by any means, but it is instructional that you have to be able to understand what is going on in the market and this is a nice way to "see" more information. Cheers, Tim West 2AM EST, Oct 25, 2016
timwest timwest PRO XAUUSD, D, 2 days ago
XAUUSD: Gold XAUUSD STUCK between Brexit extremes
973 2 31
Gold XAUUSD STUCK between Brexit extremes
Whatever your opinion of gold is at the moment, the market is afraid to move outside of the KEY BREXIT LEVEL from 1250-1358. Sure that is a wide range to operate in, but that level has contained the market since June 28th. The "Highest Low" hasn't been outside that range yet and the "Lowest High" hasn't either. The giant bi-distribution pattern around $1255 and $1325 as seen in the volume pattern on the right means the market has two scenarios it is trying to discount. Short term there is a small, 7-day uptrend in place from the 7-day accumulation pattern that set-up from 1255-1257 through the 17th of October. When that rally phase ends, a decent trade is to shoot for a retest of that level. It could lift to 1279-1281. Risk is $10 on any position. The rally phase ends Wednesday. Short term: Long for a rally to 1279-1281. After that, short with a target of 1257, 1291 stop.
timwest timwest PRO SPX500, M, Long , 2 days ago
SPX500: SPX500 Monthly PATTERN reveals MASSIVE FEAR
1293 28 48
SPX500, M Long
Hope, fear and greed can be measured in many ways on Wall Street and we are told to "sell hope and buy fear" by the great investors, sages and textbooks of all time. It is difficult to buy fear and even more difficult to sell hope, since hope tends to go on longer and go higher than anyone can imagine. But the downside is more consistent and similar, as you'll see in the chart. What I'd like to show you here with this chart is the price action of the US stock market in a unique way that shows "sentiment" (see the blue line labeled "RgMov" together with a price & volatility pattern that has many people nervous for the past couple of years. Sentiment as measure by the blue line "RgMov" peaked 2 years ago in August 2014 and has been declining in a significant way that is reminiscent of major stock market bottoms as in 2003 and 2009. Note the magnitude of the drop and the duration and severity. We have had many months where all or most of the price action has been on the downside, which makes people "feel" like stock prices are always having a rough time. Compare this pattern of "psychology" which prevailed at the 1993 time frame and led to a sideways 1994 market before the bull market continued in 1995-1999. Note how the 1987 crash was the PEAK VOLATILITY event and then there was CONVERGENCE during the rally phase into 1994, for 7 years. Note also how the 2009 market was the PEAK VOLATILITY event and there was CONVERGENCE during the rally phase into 2016, for 7 years. Average True Range Percentage (ATR%) declined to its lowest level this month as it did back in 1993. People naturally get scared when volatility declines to a low level, as it has been "THE CALM BEFORE THE STORM" in the 2007 example, so analysts, commentators and investors are looking at this pattern and drawing the conclusion that we are repeating 2007 again. I think we are repeating 1994 right now and if the right tax laws change as they did in 1994 where Bill Clinton reduced tax rates on start-ups to 15% and made the "internet tax-free" - we could see upside. In 2007, to explain why we aren't repeating that time frame, the Gov't slammed the breaks on bank lending by cutting bank leverage from 40:1 down to 11:1 which crushed real estate, lending and asset prices. I don't see that now or anytime on the horizon since we are at 11:1 leverage now. This time in the US is closer to 1993-1994 than 2007-2008. October 23, 2016 9:29PM EST Tim West
timwest timwest PRO DAL, D, Long , 6 days ago
DAL: Delta $DAL taking off for further gains
423 7 10
DAL, D Long
Delta $DAL taking off for further gains
Delta has a very constructive fundamental valuation (see the bottom half of the chart) and a very constructive "accumulated position" on the charts to suggest "Blue Skies Ahead" for further gains in $DAL. Fundamentally, you can see $DAL has $3.6 billion in "free cash flow" which is the real cash return you would earn if you owned the company outright (which is a simplistic, but more realistic view than just earnings). The market capitalization of $DAL is just over $30 billion, which means the current "Free cash flow yield" is 12% (3.6 billion/ 30 billion). That is a back-wards looking number but it is a high return given the alternatives that we can find in the universe of stocks. Technically, $DAL has a price pattern that shows that investors have accumulated shares and are "in control" of those shares and are prepared to hold them off of the market until higher prices are realized in the marketplace. Why is this the case? It is all about how shares accumulate from sellers to buyer and how the price is displayed on the chart. The price where the most price action takes place is the "battleground" area and can be seen by the thin white line I have drawn in the chart across the $37-$36.75 price level from June until September. What happened at that price line is important, because it spent 10 weeks total there and when the market climbs above that level, it means that the sellers are likely done their selling and the buyers have taken over control. The way the pattern develops from the "battleground" area is to move away from that zone for the same amount of time that it spent at that level AND the size of the movement "at the battleground zone" is the approximate size of the advance from the battleground level. The white box you see is the measurement of the movement around the 10-week white line from June to September and then it is moved to the end of the battleground level and used to measure the time and price of the advance. These dual factors of fundamentals and "share price accumulation" give solid credence to a strategy to look for a move to $45-$45.50 over the ensuing 6 weeks. With $DAL at $41.17 now, that only represents a return of 10% in 6 weeks from current levels. If there are corrections back to the green arrow line drawn on the chart, then a much better risk/reward trade will set up as well and I will be looking to add to positions. Other airlines including $JBLU, $LUV also support the $DAL chart. Wishing you well, Tim October 20, 2016 11:48AM EST
timwest timwest PRO CL1!, W, Long , 7 days ago
CL1!: Crude Oil Projections thru 2017 Year-End
801 3 24
CL1!, W Long
Crude Oil Projections thru 2017 Year-End
Crude Oil is on a new 15-week bull trend signal here using the "Time At Mode" methodology. There are two likely outcomes from what the accumulation below $46 for 15 weeks is telling us. You can count 15 weeks of time that touch the $46 price level across this chart in the large white box labeled "ACCUMULATION". Once we have broken free of that accumulation, which happened two weeks ago with the range entirely above the $46 level, it sets the stage for a 15 weeks total of advance and "distribution" to balance out the market. The price range that we see around $46 includes a rally high to near $52 and a drop near $39 for a nearly $13 price range. It will likely take a $13 rally from $46 to peak out the market in the advance. The ideal way to enter the market at this late-stage of the game is enter on weakness to the levels I have shown on the chart and target the conservative or aggressive upside targets listed also. This is all mechanical and not-subjective and provides time and price targets as shown. Look for large price corrections to provide excellent entries for long-side trades. Tim October 19, 2016 2:51PM EST
timwest timwest PRO DIA, D, Long , 7 days ago
DIA: Why are investors so scared of the stock market?
612 11 17
DIA, D Long
Why are investors so scared of the stock market?
I keep a unique price calculation which shows me what the mood of any market is and it is flashing now that we have 85% of the decline needed to create a major bottom in the stock market. But what is fascinating is that normally a drop of this indicator by the amount that it has dropped would normally happen if the market dropped 9%-15% and yet it has only dropped 3% from its peak reading. What does that mean? It means the price action in the market is making people scared. The market drops violently off of the highs which makes investors watching the market fear that it is the "top". Traders, advisors, watchers, commentators get the same feeling too from watching the market each day. The news is negative: Falling earnings, a weak economy, the Fed can't get the economy going, the darn election, the terrible candidates, the bankruptcies, the world tensions, the rising price of oil, the huge budget deficits.... and so on. Major market bottoms happen when the indicator "RgMov" drops 20 points in the $DIA and the drop into September 2015 was -29.4 points (followed by a bounce of 19%) and the drop into February 2016 was 21.9 points (followed by a bounce of 19%). I am not forecasting what the catalyst will be to a rally in prices here, but the obvious candidates are "earnings" and "election results". Check out my other market forecasts in the SPX500, SPY, and DIA and see what comments you have. I do my best to provide unique insights that stem from extremes in sentiment as measured by the VIX index and a pattern that I have found that is reliable in that indicator, and from looking at the whole universe of supply and demand factors. I have also studied what happens when a new Fed Chairman steps in. Oddly enough, the market follows a similar pattern each time. I also consider margin debt since that has correlated to the market average price quite closely. I also look at EARNINGS RELEASES and find that the market clusters around those prices since that is the level where news hit the tape. Time will tell. Wishing you all well and success in trading-investing. Tim 11:54AM EST 10/19/2016
timwest timwest PRO SPY, D, Long , 18 days ago
1627 10 23
SPY, D Long
With the S&P500 ($SPY) at 215.04 last as of Friday, October 7, 2016, you can see the price of various options. I started at 215 which is "at the money" and the prices above that are the call options, since those are "out of the money". I made the call options green, since they are for upside price action. I then graphed the put options prices from 215 and down and made them red, since they are for downside price action. What you can see is that it costs a lot more to protect against a market decline than it does for a rally. In fact, if you had $1.65-$1.70 to spend on a CALL option, you could get one that was 3.2% out of the money. But if you bought a PUT option instead, you'd have to get one that was 9.3% out of the money, which is ALMOST 3 TIMES FURTHER OUT OF THE MONEY. Basically speaking you'd have to monitor this every day to see what was a "normal" amount of skew, or price difference between puts and calls that are out of the money. But I think you can see that this is a pretty extreme reading at first glance. The fact that they are different in price is more of a function of how people use options and who initiates the trade to price the option. Let's walk through the basics: A put buyer enters an order to buy a put, which gives a put seller the chance to sell. Once the transaction has occurred, the "put seller" generally would prefer to neutralize the position by either selling short a fractional amount of the index, or go out and purchase other put options to hedge off the risk. So after awhile, a market for options that looks like this would imply that a lot of hedging has taken place and nervous longs and bearish speculators have already built their positions and are protected against a market decline. What I would also expect out of an extreme reading like we have now, is that any sharp decline would find a bottom quickly because the hedges are already in place. This is not to say that we can't have any declines, but you wouldn't expect to see a cascading decline or a massive collapse with this much hedging already in place. It looks to me that the market will more likely edge higher to the 220-225 area into year end as a much more likely possibility to the 198-206 area. The odds are better than 2:1 that this is true, from the way that I see it. Have a great weekend and hope to continue doing this analysis each weekend until it shows a bearish signal. I'll be in KEY HIDDEN LEVELS chat room during the week if you have any questions or feel free, of course, to post questions here. All the best, Tim
timwest timwest PRO DJY0, D, a month ago
DJY0: DJIA Composite Key Earnings Level & Trading Range
858 2 21
DJIA Composite Key Earnings Level & Trading Range
Q: What is the "KEY LEVEL" in the Dow Jones Industrial Average and why does it exist? A: It is the price level where each component of the index REPORTS EARNINGS and its OUTLOOK for the coming quarter. There are 4 times a year when we KNOW THE MOST about a stock and that is when the company reports its earnings for the most recent quarter and then they provide their outlook for the coming quarter. This is the most important time for analysts, investors and traders to focus on a stock and listen to what the company has to say. The company has to go through a two week "Quiet Period" prior to reporting and anticipation is high. The company then has several weeks of information about the new quarter to help guide expectations for the coming quarter, which gets quickly analyzed and priced into the market. The way to look at the market is to understand that this process is unfolding and that these "EARNINGS LEVELS" represent "Fair Value" for each company. Once about half of the stocks report earnings, the market has been building time around that level until the end of the quarter and before the new quiet period before the next quarterly reports start. The YELLOW BOX represents choppy back-and-forth trading around the "composite earnings level" at the end of each quarter. Earnings season begins again in a couple of weeks, in the middle of October so you can imagine that nerves will be at their most sensitive between now and the start of earnings announcements. I hope this perspective of the markets gives you a greater understanding for how the market works and potentially you can see the hidden patterns that are here as well. For example: Do you see how the market trades in a tighter range around the KEY LEVEL once it is "set in place"? That is valuable information, if you know how to find it. If you have any questions, please post them here or join us in the KEY HIDDEN LEVELS chatroom where we discuss this concept and others all day long, every day. Cheers, Tim West 9/30/2016 End Of Quarter
timwest timwest PRO DOWI, D, Long , a month ago
DOWI: Dow Jones $DOWI & S&P500 VIX spikes for 2016
858 1 26
DOWI, D Long
Dow Jones $DOWI & S&P500 VIX spikes for 2016
In previous charts I have published here reveal the powerful pattern of VIX spikes of greater than 5 points followed by 75% retracements which highlights when big money interests are accumulating shares from panicky sellers in heightened volatility markets. The "strong hands" buyers calm the market and absorb the selling pressure and drive down volatility in options prices, which sets a floor for future setbacks in the market. The graphs above show you what the 4-VIX-Spikes of 5+ points look like this year and how to analyze them. Once you "see" the pattern, I think it is rather intuitive. Refer to my other publications on this unique effect and join me in our intra-day chat room called "Key Hidden Levels" right here at TradingView. I have this as a "long" idea for the main purpose that the mid-point of the last accumulation was tested and held AND the September setback held the top of the May and June accumulations, which was to be expected. The logical exit on any longs purchased down around the 18,130 level (midpoint of VIX spike & retracement) would be around the $18,500-$18,600. Tim 12:22AM September 29, 2016 18,339 last $DOWI
timwest timwest PRO TSLA, W, Long , a month ago
TSLA: Updated Elliott Wave Guess for Tesla Motors
1386 5 16
TSLA, W Long
Updated Elliott Wave Guess for Tesla Motors
My last Elliott Wave guess for Tesla was two years ago and published here at TradingView. https://www.tradingview.com/chart/TSLA/Es2QKpOG-Tesla-Motors-TSLA-Weekly-Elliott-Wave-Guess/ It was a brave effort to forecast far into the future and was bearish at the time, looking for a drop to 193. See the link below for reference. The updates relate to going back to 2006 as the top of wave 1 since that was when the Roadster was sold. The Model-S in 2012 kicked off the next wave of advance. Tesla is going through a lot of growing pains and digesting a lot of difficult news: The latest action down is the result of a perfect storm of bad news: 1. Tesla and SolarCity attempting to merge, putting two cash-flow losing companies together increases financial needs and pressures equity holders who either get diluted with new shares or the prospect of much worse - of not getting capital to fund development. 2. Accidents with the self-driving software by drivers who have violated the law and taken their eyes off of the road. This has pushed the attention away from the technology and focused on the negative side of Tesla's business. 3. GM's Bolt is widely discussed as a competitor with its 200 mile range. Plenty of other manufacturers are lining up to compete. This is what Elon Musk wanted to drive adoption of EV as an alternative to internal combustion engines (ICE). 4. Musk's Space-X had an explosion, unexplained, of a valuable rocket with valuable payload of $200 million of Facebook's Zuckerberg's satellite on board. Since Musk funds Space-X and Tesla and SolarCity, the setback hurts perception that Elon will have trouble raising funding. 5. Gigafactory development and production concerns are omnipresent: Is gigafactory the right answer with the right technology? Is there a better battery technology than Lithium Ion? Can gigafactory cut the price enough to make a difference and cut prices enough? 6. Model-X production problems and a softening of car sales, together with soft economic activity in Europe and America has investors wondering if there is enough demand for Tesla's to maintain production. 7. Activist short-seller investor Jim Chanos openly derided Tesla's prospects for profitability in a recent report. He is widely respected and called for the collapse of Enron, a famous overleveraged utility company in Texas that crashed and burned and crushed the faith of investors worldwide. The issue there was fraud and clever accounting tricks to hide risk and assets and therefore leverage in offshore partnerships. 8. Google's, Apple's and now Uber's competition. Uber started up a self-driving car in Pittsburgh, but manned by a backup driver and assistant. For a thorough overview of Elliott Wave and NEoWave which is displayed here, consider reviewing Glenn Neely's treatise on the subject called "Mastering Elliott Wave" published back in 1988 and still for sale. I was his student and helped edit the book. Another major disclosure: I bought a Tesla last week from a previous owner, so now I am officially biased. Used Tesla's have fallen dramatically in price and now seem cheap by comparison to other cars. Check online auto sales site to confirm, but the Model-S 60 has fallen dramatically this summer after the release of the Model-S 100D and its incredible range over 300 miles. The future is now. Climb on board. Good fortune to you, Tim September 16, 2016 2:14PM EST Warning: Theoretical price action is included on this chart. I derived price action from pre-2006, the end of the first IMPULSIVE rally I'm labeling wave (1). Wave (2) is a long, protracted sideways drift higher the culminates with the release of the Model-S. Since then we had a big advance and then are in another wave-2 as all of the issues get worked out and Model-3 for mass production launches the next advance in TSLA shares. Possible 6-fold advance from here starting as early as mid-2017.
timwest timwest PRO ALTSALES, D, Long , a month ago
ALTSALES: USA Population is up 50% since 1976 but not Auto Sales
486 7 10
USA Population is up 50% since 1976 but not Auto Sales
When we look at auto sales, do we adjust for the number of people in America? If you see the lower chart, you can see we are just over the trend in Light Vehicle sales. The trend is 16 million and we hit 18 million and backed off to 17 million recently. It sure looks like the number of cars sold "per person" in the USA is down dramatically over the last 40 years, which means there is plenty more upside potential in auto sales. These are more tools are available for you at TradingView in the "Economic Data" section that you can graph. Graph and learn. Tim 12:16PM EST 9/12/2016
timwest timwest PRO VIX, D, Long , a month ago
939 8 23
VIX, D Long
Follow up from my last publication on this phenomenon from 8 months ago. When VIX falls 75% after a spike-run up of at least 5 points, it sets a foundation of buying support that often holds when revisited or retested. This is a unique and powerful observation. The last foundation level of support in the SPY is 209-204-199. That covers a wide range, but it is just under the current level of 213.28. Search for the other charts I have posted here on this phenomenon and keep it in mind. Tim
timwest timwest PRO TSLA, D, Long , 2 months ago
TSLA: Tesla Motors $TSLA Holding Up Well
2049 16 26
TSLA, D Long
Tesla Motors $TSLA Holding Up Well
There is a lot of information in a chart to digest and I wanted to put up a technical chart first before showing you the fundamentals, which is what I actually look at first. Why fundamentals first? Because I find it helps me sleep at night when I know what is going on under the surface of the stock price. I like to know who is buying and for what reasons and who is selling and for what reasons. I think rational markets involve rational participants and when everyone is doing their homework, it makes for a better marketplace. Well, I'll make another post on the fundamentals to show revenues, market cap as a function of revenues (Price:Sales Ratio), Profit Margin, Free Cash Flow, etc. But for now, here's the stock price action. TSLA has had four quarterly declines in a row represented by the white arrows. Meanwhile it has been in a range from $280+ to under $145 from last July through now. That's a pretty wide range but consistent with the median stock in the DJIA in terms of $range. TSLA is above the level where it reported the last 4 earnings announcements, which I find constructive. I also find that using RgMov (blue line under chart) to find "trend" is helpful. When RgMov hits a 2-month high (44-days), the trend is up. When Rgmov hits a 2-month low, the trend is down. Right now and since March, the trend is up. What I want to see when the trend is up is for a shorter term oversold reading to give me a lower risk entry into the uptrend. I'm essentially jumping on board a train at the "next stop" if I missed the start of the trend. You can add/remove positions using CCI(11) along the way, buying dips and exiting on rallies. $TSLA is coming off of 2 oversold readings in the last week or so. You can see that TSLA is above the "highest volume" price level at $220 (see the mountain of volume on the right hand side of the chart, which is graphing the volume over the price range shown). I prefer to use "time" but "volume" will suffice for now. There are many catalysts for TSLA at this point fundamentally, but I have to keep it technical for this one (ok: Gigafactory, Model-X production ramp, Model-3 anticipation, SolarCity merger (noted on chart)). I have been quiet on TSLA for awhile here but have been somewhat active in the Key Hidden Levels Chatroom where you can see my comments on various stocks, indexes, commodities and currencies from time to time. I think this is a low risk entry zone for a move to the $254 level where I see ample resistance from old earnings levels and volume. I don't see $TSLA going back under $220 for a decent risk/reward ratio. Cheers, Tim 11:37AM EST Aug 15, 2016 228.34 last TSLA
timwest timwest PRO TSLA, W, Long , 4 months ago
TSLA: TSLA mimicking the accumulation from IPO to Model-S lift-off
5287 6 36
TSLA, W Long
TSLA mimicking the accumulation from IPO to Model-S lift-off
I was looking at TESLA and noticing how long it needs to consolidate before taking off - now granted - it doesn't have anything driving it to make it take off fundamentally this time like it did last time with Model S sales going great... but I suppose it could be anticipation of Model 3 sales and the July grand opening of the Gigafactory. Interesting that I lined up the first deep correction off the run up in 2013 with the IPO in 2010. And they are right on top of each other here with EXCEPTIONALLY SIMILAR accumulation patterns. I don't often publish "Mirror" patterns or "Mimick" patterns but I found this to be very interesting and wanted to share it with you. I included the link below for the "What happens after a new Fed Chairman is elected?" which is also very interesting. For much more content and insight from me, join me at the chatroom KEY HIDDEN LEVELS which you can find under the Social tab on the righthand border of the charts page. Search for KEY HIDDEN LEVELS and join us. Ivan Labrie and I, among others, point out key levels in a variety of markets that you can use to pinpoint your entries, exits and targets. If you aren't familiar with my work, review my charts and Ivan Labrie's charts to get an idea of how to define targets, entries and stops. Cheers, Tim 12:05PM EST June 13, 2016
timwest timwest PRO VIX, D, Long , 4 months ago
VIX: SPY - S&P500 - Strong Support Right Under 210
1768 11 34
VIX, D Long
SPY - S&P500 - Strong Support Right Under 210
There is a "Hidden Support" level that I have published many times here at TradingView and it comes from the large, long term buyers who show up to absorb supply from weak, short-term sellers. The "hidden tracks" that these buyers leave in the market, in this case the SPY (S&P500) revealing their presence is the action of the VIX indicator which retraces 75% of the last 5 point rally. If you go back and see my other publications on this phenomena, then you can become more familiar with the power of this simple, yet powerful observation. Cheers. Tim
timwest timwest PRO NFLX, W, Short , 4 months ago
NFLX: Netflix NFLX has severe negative cash flow & toppy chart action
1499 12 29
NFLX, W Short
Netflix NFLX has severe negative cash flow & toppy chart action
Netflix may be on of my favorite monthly subscriptions and my kids love it too, but NFLX is bleeding cash flow. Investors are paying up to 6 times in market capitalization for every $1 in revenue at Netflix. And although NFLX is reporting a profit, after tax, when you factor in the investments they need to make to grow the business, the story begins to come apart at the seams. $7 billion in revenue seems very impressive indeed, which has doubled in just the last 3 years, but to buy a company for $42+ billion in market cap while it is losing nearly $1 billion and accelerating down steadily over the past year gives me a cramp in my stomach. It seems to me that the same logic that is omnipresent in investment circles for Tesla, which has similar issues in valuation and free cash flow, doesn't apply to Netflix. I therefore think that NFLX has a reasonable chance at testing below $80 and as low as the low $60's before it becomes safer to own shares. If you have never shorted a stock before in your life, then at least learn more about how it works and the risks involved. The old saying is surely true, that you can lose a lot more than you can make. Short selling is not for everyone, but you can also just sell call-spreads where you collect premiums from call buyers, but also hedge by protecting yourself from further crazy valuations. For example: You could sell the December 100 call options and buy the Dec 120 call options and this way you can define your risk to a maximum loss of $20 per spread (100 shares per contract), less the premiums you receive. For the technician: There is a large double-top pattern at the $130 level and a long term trendline that broke going back 3 years. The price pattern might also be a "head & shoulders top" but the point here is that NFLX peaked back in August nearly a year ago and is struggling here at a level that may stop further advances as old buyers cash out here at "breakeven". Ask questions anytime or join us in the KEY HIDDEN LEVELS CHAT ROOM. Tim 12:35AM EST June 6, 2016 99.59 last NFLX
timwest timwest PRO NKE, W, Long , 4 months ago
NKE: Nike NKE - Nearing Buy Level at 51 for return to 69 this year
1447 16 34
NKE, W Long
Nike NKE - Nearing Buy Level at 51 for return to 69 this year
Nike has been an investors best dream for many years now as it has compounded investor capital by double-digits for the past 10 and 20 years. Lately, however, NKE is in a correction which has reached 22%, which is a very typical correction for this superstar stock. Instead of waiting until the moment that NKE has reached down to an ideal entry level at $51 or below to trigger, I am alerting you now to the price level so you can prepare yourself. You can use a host of techniques to get exposure to NKE, but I'll leave a few suggestions and you can discuss with others. What is the situation with NKE now? Revenue growth is slowing on a percentage basis and this is troubling investors. You can see the "TOTAL REVENUE" line for NKE and how it is steadily powering ahead, but on a percentage scale it is growing much slower than it used to. Look at 2012 where revenues were up 18%, then on to 2013 where they were up only 9%. In 2014 revenues grew by nearly 12% and then in 2015 dropped to a much slower gain of 7%. Revenue growth is the fuel the fires the spirits of investors and fears of global recession seem to be winning the argument lately. On the positive side - NKE's "AFTER TAX MARGINS" are at their highest level in the data series we get here at TradingView. A/T Margins have creeped up to nearly 12% which is a powerful driver of investment performance. Free-cash-flow is not supporting the price of NKE stock here because it peaked out at 2.86 Billion in the first quarter of 2015 and has since dropped back down to 1.12 Billion, which is a low return if you owned the company outright (at a level of 2.3 x 32 B in revenues = $73+ Billion Mkt Cap). This is a minuscule return of 1.5% per year. The current bear market for NKE shares, which I am labeling because they are down more than 20% from the peak, is an opportunity to prepare yourself to buy shares at slightly lower levels. Note the entry price, stop loss level, and target price I have given. I am looking for NKE to return to the peak of $69+ by year-end for what would be a 30%+ return. I only recommend taking a loss of 10% in order to capture the upside potential at this time. If I can further pinpoint the entry on further setbacks then I will do my best. Feel free to ask questions or shoot holes in my logic. All the best, Tim NKE 53.45 last, 12:07AM June 6, 2016 Monday
timwest timwest PRO DJY0, D, Long , 5 months ago
DJY0: DJIA - KEY EARNINGS LEVEL with 7 stocks remaining to report
2945 10 31
DJY0, D Long
DJIA - KEY EARNINGS LEVEL with 7 stocks remaining to report
The Key Earnings Level is the cumulative level where each element of the DJIA has reported earnings and created a "mass focus" level where there is either support or resistance. I call the "Earnings Report" levels "KEY EARNINGS LEVELS". The summation of every DJIA stock is represented by each data point listed here and has been useful for defining important support/resistance for the overall market. If the market is above the KEY LEVEL, look for support when it falls to the KEY LEVEL. If the market is below the KEY LEVEL, look for resistance when the market rises to the KEY LEVEL. For today, the level is 7 points under the close of May 4. 17644. The number wont change until the next company reports earnings. Stay tuned: Tim West 8:31AM 5/5/2016 17651 DJIA
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