There is a lot of information in a chart to digest and I wanted to put up a technical chart first before showing you the fundamentals, which is what I actually look at first. Why fundamentals first? Because I find it helps me sleep at night when I know what is going on under the surface of the stock price. I like to know who is buying and for what reasons and who is selling and for what reasons. I think rational markets involve rational participants and when everyone is doing their homework, it makes for a better marketplace.
Well, I'll make another post on the fundamentals to show revenues, market cap as a function of revenues (Price:Sales Ratio), Profit Margin, Free Cash Flow, etc. But for now, here's the stock price action.
TSLA has had four quarterly declines in a row represented by the white arrows. Meanwhile it has been in a range from $280+ to under $145 from last July through now. That's a pretty wide range but consistent with the median stock in the DJIA in terms of $range.
TSLA is above the level where it reported the last 4 earnings announcements, which I find constructive. I also find that using RgMov (blue line under chart) to find "trend" is helpful. When RgMov hits a 2-month high (44-days), the trend is up. When Rgmov hits a 2-month low, the trend is down. Right now and since March, the trend is up.
What I want to see when the trend is up is for a shorter term oversold reading to give me a lower risk entry into the uptrend. I'm essentially jumping on board a train at the "next stop" if I missed the start of the trend. You can add/remove positions using CCI(11) along the way, buying dips and exiting on rallies. $TSLA is coming off of 2 oversold readings in the last week or so.
You can see that TSLA is above the "highest volume" price level at $220 (see the mountain of volume on the right hand side of the chart, which is graphing the volume over the price range shown). I prefer to use "time" but "volume" will suffice for now.
There are many catalysts for TSLA at this point fundamentally, but I have to keep it technical for this one (ok: Gigafactory, Model-X production ramp, Model-3 anticipation, SolarCity merger (noted on chart)).
I have been quiet on TSLA for awhile here but have been somewhat active in the Key Hidden Levels Chatroom where you can see my comments on various stocks, indexes, commodities and currencies from time to time.
I think this is a low risk entry zone for a move to the $254 level where I see ample resistance from old earnings levels and volume. I don't see $TSLA going back under $220 for a decent risk/reward ratio.
11:37AM EST Aug 15, 2016 228.34 last TSLA