timwest

The internal trendline is broken in $TSLA shares and it is poised to return to old price levels at higher prices. The green lines with green triangles are the price range at the release of Earnings and represent KEY LEVELS where stocks have important support and/or resistance. The internal trendline is the line that connects the "highest low" of rallies and you...

I am looking at the divergence in performance of the two "WAL" retail stocks, Walmart and Walgreens. $WMT has rebounded sharply from the two selloffs in 2018 while $WBA has been in a sharp dive since late 2018. The two are about as far enough apart in performance to set up a trade to bring the two back together. $WBA reports earnings on the 27th in just 2 days,...

I formerly had lined up the December 28, 2018 bottom to the launch up in January 1987 and then with the bottom in May/June this year to the bottom in May 1987. So far, so good. Tim

The point? Markets tend to chop around before Presidential Elections. George Bush Senior is probably the best performing Presidential stock market to not get re-elected. Clinton likely had the best performing stock market thanks to the internet, unbridled leverage in real estate due to tax-free capital gains of $500,000 every 2 years for couples in their...

The pioneers in medicine ($IBB Biotech) vs the pioneer in automobile, battery and automated driving ($TSLA, Tesla). Notice the wave of investor recognition of the future of biotech from 2011 to 2015 matches quite well to the wave of investor recognition of the future of energy storage and EV vehicles in the stock price of Tesla. Biotechs returned to the US...

I am always finding interesting patterns and I post them to my Chat Room "Key Hidden Levels" here at TradingView.com where we point out trade setups using charts, news, earnings, and other tricks of the trading business. This chart is the $DJIA or Dow Jones Industrial Average going back to the 1940's to show the 10 year Rate of Change (%) but adjusted for...

Back in February this year I posted this chart here at TradingView to diagram the structure of the Crude Oil market and its potential upside along with the overhead resistance and the general timeframe to expect based on the chart at the time. The method I have outlined here is logical and not subjective, but what I do call this is "guessing" because anytime...

When a market moves further and faster than you can imagine, usually there is someone with a large position that is losing in the market and everyone else knows it and is trading against them. I've seen it too many times before. The biggest one is when Long Term Capital Management owned lower quality bonds and sold short high quality US Treasury Bonds to finance...

When $VIX SPIKES by more than 5 points and then RETRACES BY 75%, something VERY IMPORTANT HAPPENS. What is important about that? Well, one thing. When $VIX spikes, the market becomes ILLIQUID and options sellers run out of capital to provide liquidity to the market so that the prices of options have to INCREASE to bring more liquidity into the market. Why is...

Depending on the length of time you have been watching markets, you will find that you have a bias towards thinking that gold and interest rates (as measured by US Gov't T-Bill Rates) have some kind of a pattern. But the longer term chart reveals that there is almost zero correlation. I wont even run the "correlation indicator" because you can very easily see...

This pattern was shown to me by Liz Ann Sonders in her publications at Charles Schwab, which are available to all of us via Schwab.com and her posts on Twitter. What you see here is when longer term (3-month) VIX ($VIX3M) drops to a fraction of front-month (1-month) $VIX, it can signal an extreme shift in demand for short term options, which has shown us time...

Here is a log-scale chart of 10 Year Interest Rates in the United States as measured by the $TYX Index. I have noted several important events along the way: 1. 1987 stock market peak and crash 2. 1994 sideways stock market and bond market bear-market that destroyed Long Term Capital Management and their leveraged bets on sub-prime loans while shorting US...

Back in 2012, I was actively researching Tesla, investing in the stock, and charting the patterns here at TradingView. The pattern I found was that people were concerned the Model-S wasn't going to work as planned or they would have production problems. Tesla was still such a new company in 2012 to most and the price point for the Model-S car was much higher...

Here is a plot of the $DJI Dow Jones Industrial Average together with a concept I call "Key Earnings Levels" which plots the sum total of the prices where the stocks in the Dow reported their earnings. It has been a very useful tool to define support and resistance in this sideways, choppy market that has led to low risk entries several times this year. We...

I've plotted this relationship over the years here and here is the current update. The concept: When $VIX spikes by 5 points or more and then retraces 75% of that spike, buyers have absorbed the selling from the panicky sellers and provided liquidity to an illiquid market. AFTER these episodes, you can use them for reference and support. See how there have...

What is the PATTERN of gold price movement on the day that the Fed raises interest rates? Here are the last six (6) rate hikes and the dates. If the triangle is GREEN, then the price moved UP and CLOSED UP on the day. If the triangle is RED, then the price moved DOWN and CLOSED DOWN on the day. On 6/14/2017, the price moved UP initially, then traded DOWN and...

Previous Fed Chair and Stock Market (divided by CPI, to make it "real"). You can see how there is turmoil typically at the beginning of a new Central Bankers term. Bernanke, not initially as he sat on top of a giant credit bubble that was set to pop. Greenspan had the worst initial stock market performance, but Bernanke had the worst performance with a close...

2018 - basic outline for the year - as published here in my chatroom - Key Hidden Levels. I see "no gain" for the year as the market chops sideways and then musters strength for a move up next year as the full impact of the new Tax Law kicks into full effect, driving Capex, Buybacks and re-distribution of wealth. Time will tell, but given the extreme calls for...