timwest

timwest Wizard Updated 

NASDAQ:TSLA was trading over 20X's sales in 2021 and 2022 and was "way ahead" of itself in valuation. The cart was before the horse. First is expectations, then reality comes next. Growth and momentum gets investors excited and they pay UP for potential. With stocks, it isn't a "weighing game" at the beginning because the sellers are holders who don't want to...

timwest Wizard Updated 

Here's an overlay of $MCD in yellow from 1980 to 2005 lined up to the 75% drop in $MCD on the "Dollar Menu" price wars, store closings and YOY% sales decline for $MCD back in 2002. It was a disaster. Well, $TSLA has the same 75% drop to the current low. Maybe they mimic, maybe they don't. Just interesting! Here's the $MCD chart and the part that I copied and...

timwest Wizard

A little brief before I start into this. I got started investing prior to the 1987 stock market crash and have always been amazed at the stock market for what it can do in a short period of time. People experience the market in so many different ways and I was fascinated by the mass-hysteria, psychology, economics and politics that surrounded the entire 1987...

timwest Wizard

In order to get the decimal point to the right of a number, I had to multiply AMEX:SPY by 1,000,000,000,000 or 1 Trillion. The price of the market is unchanged since January 1997 with the adjustment. That is an incredible 26 years where prices haven't bean 'inflation as measured by the quantity of money' floating around in the banking system. Nominally, our...

timwest Wizard Updated 

Here is a long term view of long term US Gov't interest rates. Long term is defined as 30 years and is a common bond owned by pension funds and insurance companies and other long term investors with long term obligations. I highlight the various ranges of interest rates as shown in these 4 boxes and the few moves that temporarily moved interest rates outside...

timwest Wizard Updated 

The "real value of the US Gov't Debt" is a different way of looking at our situation through rose-colored glasses, but it is a fair analysis. If we "adjust the debt level for inflation" as measured by the CPI Index (All Urban Consumers Index) from the beginning of the series back in 1966, you will have a line that is grinding SIDEWAYS since October 2020 at a...

timwest Wizard Updated 

Tesla NASDAQ:TSLA vs Lithium Prices Tesla was faced with crushing increases in the price of lithium which created a feedback-loop spiral to the downside for investor and speculator expectations. There were many other factors going on at the same time for Tesla's big slide from $400+ down to $100+ per share, but this picture paints a picture and story which is...

timwest Wizard Updated 

$TSLA has had wild swings in valuation from under 2 times sales and over 20 times sales in the past few years. Granted, you have to know the future to know what the sales are, but in 2019 it was insanely cheap just as the Model Y was just starting to sell. The MODEL Y is why Tesla has done so well in my opinion. It has dominated and is still growing insanely fast...

timwest Wizard Updated 

Adjusted for inflation as measured by FRED:CPIAUCSL , the price of crude oil hasn't changed since the price peak in 1985. The back and forth oscillations in supply and demand over the decades has left us right where we started back when I was in college 38 years ago! The price of a first class stamp in 1985 was 13 cents and is now 66 cents. So, the price of a...

timwest Wizard

The goal of this chart is to attempt to show the impact of energy costs in the current economy. We use equal amounts of natural gas and crude oil according to economic websites, so a chart that shows the year-over-year % change of energy costs would be useful to look at so we aren't confused by headlines. Everyone seems to be looking at crude oil as the main...

timwest Wizard

If you have seen the general news that M2 Money Supply is contracting at the greatest rate in 50 years, then you may be wondering why it is happening and what it means. I hope you do, at least. Money Supply is a general term that means the total money available to an economy in the form of cash money in the bank plus loans and short term deposits sitting in...

timwest Wizard Updated 

With everyone in the general media chirping about the rise in crude oil this year, I can't help but wonder why there isn't a massive wave of good news about how "low natural gas prices are". We all know the media loves to get attention and fear, uncertainty and anger work much more effectively at capturing the ears of a weary audience. Wouldn't it make sense to...

timwest Wizard

Here's a quick view of CORN vs CRUDE which has been moving together for the past ten years with some variation. With CRUDE pushing highs here (Price Inflation fears rampant) and CORN pushing new lows (Food Deflation - no fears about falling corn prices in the news warning about falling inflation), it seems obvious to put up a chart showing how these two markets...

timwest Wizard Updated 

Drops in crude oil have an impact on stocks in a positive way. The important point to remember is that falling crude oil prices have a lagged effect on the overall equity market. How long is that lag? It changes over time but it is approximately 6 months. When oil prices rise, it too has a lagged effect on the market by a variable amount of time. Of course, it...

timwest Wizard Updated 

I posted this pattern originally back in 2019 which showed the relationship between sharp drops in crude oil prices and the resulting support levels created in the stock market, as measured by the $SPX500 S&P500 Index. Crude oil has basically gone sideways over the last 40 years when adjusted for inflation and when you factor in efficiency in that we get 22 mpg...

timwest Wizard Updated 

Educational chart: The massive 20% rally in the US Dollar into the fall of 2022 coincided with the bear market in stocks and fears of recession as the Fed was raising rates to choke off the inflation stoked from aggressive fiscal and monetary expansion post-Covid lockdowns. What is important to learn is how the US Dollar movements can drive earnings estimates so...

timwest Wizard Updated 

AMEX:IWM long vs AMEX:SPY short -------------------------- This is a "spread trade" between two indexes which is sometimes called a "pairs trade". Typically a "pairs trade" is between two similar stocks in a similar industry whose fortunes are tied together to a similar end user or buyer. Imagine NYSE:KO and NASDAQ:PEP (Coca-Cola vs Pepsi) as a decent...

timwest Wizard Updated 

Confluent NASDAQ:CFLT has an 11-month base formation since last May 2022 almost every month has touched the price of $22.6/sh. This May the price of NASDAQ:CFLT has "range expanded up" which can mean that buyers are in control and stepping up after they have accumulated enough shares to control the price. The base measures 100% from a low near $17 to a high...