timwest

timwest Wizard

Here is a ratio chart of Gold OANDA:XAUUSD and Crude Oil $USOIL. Historically you can see it goes to extremes. Especially in 2020 when crude oil went to zero (and negative). I cut that spike out of the chart so hopefully it shows here. When the Global Financial Crisis in 2008-2009 hit, crude oil hit $140 and gold was low which set up the bottom of this chart...

timwest Wizard

Back in 2015 I had published a chart with annual data for the Dow Jones Industrials. I will provide a link at the bottom. The research for this patterning is something I did myself by hand using pencil and paper back in the 1980's. These patterns show up in all time frames. There is plenty of room to enhance the research on this technique and a group of us...

timwest Wizard

The REAL S&P500 Index is plotted here from the data on SP:SPX and FRED:CPIAUCSL which is CPI-All Urban Consumers which allows us to see the "REAL", or inflation-adjusted S&P500 (excluding dividends) over the long term. Most people forget the impact that inflation has on the price of stocks because it gets complicated and small increases in price compound...

timwest Wizard

If you use the great EARNINGS indicator here on TradingView you can quickly see how volatile stocks have been on their EARNINGS report looking back many years very quickly and visually by seeing how big the EARNINGS TRIANGLE is. When we look at NASDAQ:ADBE you can see it gaps a LOT on earnings and has done so the last two quarters as shown with the big green...

timwest Wizard

The politically motivated push to depress oil prices and drain the Strategic Petroleum Reserve created a PRICE LEVEL in the crude oil market which has proven twice to have strong overhead resistance. The FLIP-SIDE of that SPR DRAIN LEVEL is that SPR-REFILL LEVEL and we are down low enough where it makes sense to strategically refill our lost petroleum...

timwest Wizard

NASDAQ:AAPL is already IN a weekly downtrend. NASDAQ:AAPL is below the mode since the high NASDAQ:AAPL peaked 7 weeks ago NASDAQ:AAPL had a weekly range expansion down this week to trigger a sell signal NASDAQ:AAPL had a RESZ rally into 50-75% resistance this week after RgExp down Stop loss $226, downside $195 I also labeled Warren Buffett's sale of...

timwest Wizard

SKEW is a measure of options prices in the S&P500 Index that divides the options volatilities of puts/calls. How to use the CBOE:SKEW Index gets a bit more cloudy since it isn't always clear or perfect in its "signal generation". But I think it is important to know what it is showing so you can at least decide what the general sentiment and positioning is in...

timwest Wizard

This chart says it all. The biggest destruction of wealth that I have witnessed in my professional life. Bigger than the real estate melt-down in the GFC. Bigger than the S&L crisis and bailout. Bigger than the stock market crashes of 1987, 1990, 2003, 2008, 2020 and 2023. Enjoy the upside run! Tim 92.99 last NASDAQ:TLT

timwest Wizard Updated 

Going along with my usual 'Key Hidden Levels' in the markets perspective that NEWS is an important price level to mark on charts so it is visible to everyone, I have created the update to the "Rate Hiking Cycle" chart. The purple triangles and lines are the range of the day of the announcement and the mid-point of the day plotted horizontally forward. With this...

timwest Wizard

Many years ago I had drawn this 1.7-1.3 level in the PSR (or Price-to-Sales Ratio) for NYSE:NKE and the recent smack down for NYSE:NKE stock has put it within reach of the 1.7-1.3 X Sales zone. The RETURN for shareholders has been negative for the last 7 years in NYSE:NKE when adjusted for inflation. The stock is basically unchanged back to 2018 here (not...

timwest Wizard

TVC:DXY strength creates stock market bottoms as earnings translation reduces earnings from overseas. This simple graph will show you very simply how the TVC:DXY creates strong changes in earnings estimates, which in turn, cause market participants to change the value that they are placing on the market. Combine TVC:DXY movement together with other...

timwest Wizard Updated 

Here are the actual #'s for you to see the 2024 Wall Street analysts forecasts on the chart. Once those are charted in the black rectangles at the year-end price targets, we can see where there are concentrations of estimates and where investors might pause and sell as the target has been reached for the year. And then I added in the 9% and 10% green lines to...

timwest Wizard Updated 

$TSLA has had wild swings in valuation from under 2 times sales and over 20 times sales in the past few years. Granted, you have to know the future to know what the sales are, but in 2019 it was insanely cheap just as the Model Y was just starting to sell. The MODEL Y is why Tesla has done so well in my opinion. It has dominated and is still growing insanely fast...

timwest Wizard Updated 

What do we get when we buy NASDAQ:AAPL shares for a valuation of $3 trillion? We get $100 billion in free cash flow. (3 year average free cash flow is ~$100B) Over 10 years revenues have more than doubled from $170B in 2013 to $383B and debt has jumped from $17B to FWB:95B to pay dividends and to buy back stock which has dropped from 26B shares to under 16B...

timwest Wizard

Since Microsoft bought ChatGPT back in March 2023, the price of NASDAQ:MSFT stock has gone on to replicate the same pattern as the 1987 S&P500 stock market rally. Does it mean anything all by itself? No. It still needs a catalyst for the drop to happen. The 1987 stock market crash had many triggers and catalysts and the drop was a sharp 40% from August 28th,...

timwest Wizard Updated 

Here's an overlay of $MCD in yellow from 1980 to 2005 lined up to the 75% drop in $MCD on the "Dollar Menu" price wars, store closings and YOY% sales decline for $MCD back in 2002. It was a disaster. Well, $TSLA has the same 75% drop to the current low. Maybe they mimic, maybe they don't. Just interesting! Here's the $MCD chart and the part that I copied and...

timwest Wizard

The valuation of NASDAQ:AAPL shares is always an interesting challenge and historically you can view the range of valuation that Apple shares have traded at using the powerful tools that TradingView has for you. Here is a template you can easily make a copy of using the "share" button at the bottom of the graph. Once you click "share" you will see a "make it...

timwest Wizard

The methodology shown here is what I call "Time@Mode" because of a pattern of counting the number of bars at "the mode" of a trend and using that count to project the time of the move out of that mode. I found the pattern by plotting charts by hand back in the 1980's, but fine-tuned here at TradingView with the powerful charting and tools available to us,...