timwest

When a market moves further and faster than you can imagine, usually there is someone with a large position that is losing in the market and everyone else knows it and is trading against them. I've seen it too many times before. The biggest one is when Long Term Capital Management owned lower quality bonds and sold short high quality US Treasury Bonds to finance ...

When $VIX SPIKES by more than 5 points and then RETRACES BY 75%, something VERY IMPORTANT HAPPENS. What is important about that? Well, one thing. When $VIX spikes, the market becomes ILLIQUID and options sellers run out of capital to provide liquidity to the market so that the prices of options have to INCREASE to bring more liquidity into the market. Why is ...

Depending on the length of time you have been watching markets, you will find that you have a bias towards thinking that gold and interest rates (as measured by US Gov't T-Bill Rates) have some kind of a pattern. But the longer term chart reveals that there is almost zero correlation. I wont even run the "correlation indicator" because you can very easily see ...

This pattern was shown to me by Liz Ann Sonders in her publications at Charles Schwab, which are available to all of us via Schwab.com and her posts on Twitter. What you see here is when longer term (3-month) VIX ($VIX3M) drops to a fraction of front-month (1-month) $VIX, it can signal an extreme shift in demand for short term options, which has shown us time ...

Here is a log-scale chart of 10 Year Interest Rates in the United States as measured by the $TYX Index. I have noted several important events along the way: 1. 1987 stock market peak and crash 2. 1994 sideways stock market and bond market bear-market that destroyed Long Term Capital Management and their leveraged bets on sub-prime loans while shorting US ...

Back in 2012, I was actively researching Tesla, investing in the stock, and charting the patterns here at TradingView. The pattern I found was that people were concerned the Model-S wasn't going to work as planned or they would have production problems. Tesla was still such a new company in 2012 to most and the price point for the Model-S car was much higher ...

Here is a plot of the $DJI Dow Jones Industrial Average together with a concept I call "Key Earnings Levels" which plots the sum total of the prices where the stocks in the Dow reported their earnings. It has been a very useful tool to define support and resistance in this sideways, choppy market that has led to low risk entries several times this year. We ...

I've plotted this relationship over the years here and here is the current update. The concept: When $VIX spikes by 5 points or more and then retraces 75% of that spike, buyers have absorbed the selling from the panicky sellers and provided liquidity to an illiquid market. AFTER these episodes, you can use them for reference and support. See how there have ...

What is the PATTERN of gold price movement on the day that the Fed raises interest rates? Here are the last six (6) rate hikes and the dates. If the triangle is GREEN, then the price moved UP and CLOSED UP on the day. If the triangle is RED, then the price moved DOWN and CLOSED DOWN on the day. On 6/14/2017, the price moved UP initially, then traded DOWN and ...

Previous Fed Chair and Stock Market (divided by CPI, to make it "real"). You can see how there is turmoil typically at the beginning of a new Central Bankers term. Bernanke, not initially as he sat on top of a giant credit bubble that was set to pop. Greenspan had the worst initial stock market performance, but Bernanke had the worst performance with a close ...

2018 - basic outline for the year - as published here in my chatroom - Key Hidden Levels. I see "no gain" for the year as the market chops sideways and then musters strength for a move up next year as the full impact of the new Tax Law kicks into full effect, driving Capex, Buybacks and re-distribution of wealth. Time will tell, but given the extreme calls for ...

Amazon has rallied for 15 weeks into last week's close after accumulating at the mode back this past fall for 15 weeks. In other words: Amazon has "run out of time". Once Amazon blasted off on its previous earnings report back in October, it kicked off a 15 week rally which ran far beyond the rally that was implied by the previous move from $766 (where it ...

The current market environment somewhat mimics the 1981 market: Why? The stock market rallied 31% from Nov 1979 to Nov 1980 on the optimism that Reagan would revolutionize the economy. The Reagan Revolution led to the Tax Cuts entitled "Economic Recovery Tax Act of 1981, An act to amend the Internal Revenue Code of 1954 to encourage economic growth through ...

Overly simplistic - non-inflation adjusted returns, but so far they are remarkably similar. I lined up the bottoms of 1974 and 1987 to the 2009 low. Doing some "pattern analysis" to show that the magnitude of the current advance is similar when compared to previous booms. What do we have in this cycle compared to 1973-1987 and 1987-2000? Back then we had ...

A little tongue in cheek here but clearly the end of the year has been a time when people have moved OUT OF short term treasuries and into other assets or durations.  The news has been covering how short term rates are at their highest levels in years here. I'm pulling up the chart and with the great indicator "MTPC" for "Multi-Time-Period-Charts" I was able to ...

Here is a "pairs strategy" to go long $DIS and short $MAR over the course of the next 3-6 months AFTER earnings are released for $DIS on November 9th. I don't want to put you at risk for the current earnings report, but over the longer term, $DIS tends to correlate very highly to $MAR Marriott. $MAR has been on a straight line rally for many months now while ...

Sometimes a picture tells you a powerful story - just like this one. The KEY HIDDEN LEVELS "Earnings Support and Resistance" lines show you in advance where important support and resistance is in a stock. Take a look at $UAL for example: Note how the green line broke to the downside, then retested before heading lower in a cascade of "Range Expansion" ...

The TIME@MODE structure of the decline in the $EURUSD has put the market in a tight spot here sitting right on support. Why is it support? The current price is where the most volume has traded over the past few months, so it is the "resting place" where collectively the market is viewed as "balanced" and "fairly valued". Why is it a low risk buy? The market ...