timwest

timwest

Did anyone notice that the Covid19 Crash of 2020 fell to the level where Trump was elected back in November 2016? I thought it would be interesting to use the "bars pattern" tool to copy the US Presidential Election Year price action of the $DJI Dow Jones Industrials and paste it to the end of 2019 to see how we are doing compared to the last 4 elections. I'll...

timwest

In 1987, 33 years ago, the $SPX500 peaked in August on the 25th of the month right as Alan Greenspan took over at the Federal Reserve from the then greatest Paul Volcker who had navigated the US financial markets through the desperate Jimmy Carter inflation of the late 1970's and spiked rates up to the sky to stop inflation into 1980. The stock market in 1987...

timwest

Here's how the stock market declined in 2018 from the peak in January and the peak in October as compared to the current peak. I also have graphed the levels of support from previous panic selloffs as represented by the pink triangles and lines. Usually those are reference levels for support for the market. Notice what happened back in late 2018 when the...

timwest

A great way to monitor the stock market is to divide it it by gold. Since the Presidential election on Nov 8, 2016, the stock market advanced 46% against gold into the October 2018 high, but since then has tumbled back down to only a 15% gain over the past 3+ years. Violent setbacks are clearly evident on this chart and even reveals more of a triangle...

timwest

I stumbled on my "BEAR MARKET" chart from last year where the $QQQ fell 23.5% from the peak last summer into year-end.... and just want to point out that with stocks, you have to deal with 23% corrections in order to earn a 10% return, because that is all the market is up from the highs last summer. Yes, it FEELS like the market is up a lot more, but it isn't. It...

timwest

Will $AAPL fall all by itself? Likely. Will $AAPL fall relative to the $SPX500? Much more likely. Why? Apple has reached extended valuation levels at a time when portfolio managers and indexers are not likely to do anything to adjust their positions going into year end. Why sell now and pay capital gains taxes? Exactly, they wont sell now. They will sell...

timwest

What I would like to reveal with these two charts, the Crude Oil market ($USDWTI) and the US Stock Market ($SPX500) using a 22-day chart (monthly) is the link between them and how we can utilize large drops in Crude Oil to help us to find support levels in the S&P500 Index. In order to help us see crude oil inflation adjusted, I divided Crude by the CPI Index. You...

timwest

I want to share the LOG-scale trendline for $BTCUSD using Bitstamp data. There is an "internal trendline" that has been useful and it is found using the highs of the bars instead of the lows. Notice how the breakdown in late 2018 occurred right from a break of the yellow "internal trendline". Also note that the market flushed out and then RETURNED to the...

timwest

The internal trendline is broken in $TSLA shares and it is poised to return to old price levels at higher prices. The green lines with green triangles are the price range at the release of Earnings and represent KEY LEVELS where stocks have important support and/or resistance. The internal trendline is the line that connects the "highest low" of rallies and you...

timwest

I am looking at the divergence in performance of the two "WAL" retail stocks, Walmart and Walgreens. $WMT has rebounded sharply from the two selloffs in 2018 while $WBA has been in a sharp dive since late 2018. The two are about as far enough apart in performance to set up a trade to bring the two back together. $WBA reports earnings on the 27th in just 2 days,...

timwest

I formerly had lined up the December 28, 2018 bottom to the launch up in January 1987 and then with the bottom in May/June this year to the bottom in May 1987. So far, so good. Tim

timwest

The point? Markets tend to chop around before Presidential Elections. George Bush Senior is probably the best performing Presidential stock market to not get re-elected. Clinton likely had the best performing stock market thanks to the internet, unbridled leverage in real estate due to tax-free capital gains of $500,000 every 2 years for couples in their...

timwest

The pioneers in medicine ($IBB Biotech) vs the pioneer in automobile, battery and automated driving ($TSLA, Tesla). Notice the wave of investor recognition of the future of biotech from 2011 to 2015 matches quite well to the wave of investor recognition of the future of energy storage and EV vehicles in the stock price of Tesla. Biotechs returned to the US...

timwest

I am always finding interesting patterns and I post them to my Chat Room "Key Hidden Levels" here at TradingView.com where we point out trade setups using charts, news, earnings, and other tricks of the trading business. This chart is the $DJIA or Dow Jones Industrial Average going back to the 1940's to show the 10 year Rate of Change (%) but adjusted for...

timwest

Back in February this year I posted this chart here at TradingView to diagram the structure of the Crude Oil market and its potential upside along with the overhead resistance and the general timeframe to expect based on the chart at the time. The method I have outlined here is logical and not subjective, but what I do call this is "guessing" because anytime...

timwest

When a market moves further and faster than you can imagine, usually there is someone with a large position that is losing in the market and everyone else knows it and is trading against them. I've seen it too many times before. The biggest one is when Long Term Capital Management owned lower quality bonds and sold short high quality US Treasury Bonds to finance...

timwest

When $VIX SPIKES by more than 5 points and then RETRACES BY 75%, something VERY IMPORTANT HAPPENS. What is important about that? Well, one thing. When $VIX spikes, the market becomes ILLIQUID and options sellers run out of capital to provide liquidity to the market so that the prices of options have to INCREASE to bring more liquidity into the market. Why is...

timwest

Depending on the length of time you have been watching markets, you will find that you have a bias towards thinking that gold and interest rates (as measured by US Gov't T-Bill Rates) have some kind of a pattern. But the longer term chart reveals that there is almost zero correlation. I wont even run the "correlation indicator" because you can very easily see...