CommoditiesTrader

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About me Bringing substance to charting. Actual analyst, actual trader. Loves to talk markets.
Joined USA Lemieux_26
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Markets Allocation
33 % commodities 30 % forex 10 % indices 27 % other
Top Mentioned Symbols
GC1! 15% | 19 XAUUSD 9% | 11 DXY 6% | 8 USDJPY 5% | 7
SPX: Unapologetically Bearish
879 8 10
SPX, D
Unapologetically Bearish

A series of events took place causing me sit back and contemplate market participants (in)sanity. First, it is known that I've was one of the first to stick my neck out and tell it how it is – the U.S. Is facing a recession in 2016 – last April. Soon after, various investment banks flirted with the potential but gave the very realistic situation very low ...

CommoditiesTrader CommoditiesTrader EURUSD, D,
EURUSD: Downside Risk Potential For The Euro
460 0 8
EURUSD, D
Downside Risk Potential For The Euro

There is downside risk for the euro as price action for EURUSD failed to close above 1.1342, essentially creating an asymmetric double top with the fizzled mid-February rally. The pair looks to fade back to the 200-day EMA near 1.1108. The rally in the dollar following its steep declines last week could cause a more pronounced slide as long as the DXY remains ...

DXY: The Dollar Paradox Pt. 1: Unintended Consequences
718 6 5
DXY, M
The Dollar Paradox Pt. 1: Unintended Consequences

It is clear that the U.S. dollar has been one of the biggest hedge fund crowded trades, and still remains despite recent pullbacks in the greenback. And, although, the DXY saw a violent decent following last week's dovish FOMC-minutes report, there is still an underlying dynamic that supports a much higher dollar. History may not repeat, but it often rhymes. ...

GDX: Gold Miners Could Pullback Before Resumption of Trend.
319 0 2
GDX, D
Gold Miners Could Pullback Before Resumption of Trend.

Gold prices have been volatile, flucuating between $1,275 and $1,220 as markets remain indecisive on what stance to take: is the Federal Reserve going to continue hiking assuming the economy will "gradually improve," or with traders continue to look for safer locations to place there cash? According to recent capital flow data, the GLD has seen redemption as ...

GC1!: Gold to $8,000?
359 0 3
GC1!, W
Gold to $8,000?

Despite what so-called gold bugs have been trying to predict for years, it still remains seen how valuable the most "hated" asset on Wall Street can be. Calls of $10- or $50,000 gold have made headlines and often laughs, but when investors take into account the supporting fundamentals, gold can be extremely beneficial during these centrally-planned ...

GLD: Demand for Gold Rockets Higher
431 0 9
GLD, D
Demand for Gold Rockets Higher

Is the once Goldman Sachs "slam dunk sell" turning into a layup buy? I cannot hate the initial call from many investment bank analysts it to sink to $1,000 because, in 2013, I issued a $1,035 bear-call. However, I do ridicule these analysts for unwillingly (either through ignorance or moral hazard) understanding the dynamics of gold. But in 2014 I turned rather ...

CommoditiesTrader CommoditiesTrader EURJPY, 240,
EURJPY: EURJPY Intraday Technicals
123 0 3
EURJPY, 240
EURJPY Intraday Technicals

The yen has severely weakened during the Asian session as the Nikkei tries to play catch up with the large, volumeless pullback continuation in SPX. Intraday technicals are indicating that the pair is at a tipping point. A break of the minor downward trend line would signal further continuation, potentially to 125.10 (pending clearance from the 72-4H ...

SPX: SPX Pullbacks Are Volumeless, Stay the Course
770 6 8
SPX, D
SPX Pullbacks Are Volumeless, Stay the Course

Traders have seen this before, and it continues to play out as the global economic climate breaks down. Although these pullbacks in the SPX are often lofty and swift, it is important to realize volume is the most import factor when considering the validity of a pullback. Here, we can see that the move in SPY is volumeless. The entire squeeze from the Feb. 11 low ...

CommoditiesTrader CommoditiesTrader USDCAD, D,
USDCAD: A Turning Point for USDCAD?
339 1 5
USDCAD, D
A Turning Point for USDCAD?

The recent risk rally has encouraged commodity currencies higher. As crude ignores the globalized downturn in economic output and ongoing "pump at all costs" mantra of producers, the Canadian dollar has hit a three-month high against the dollar. Crude aside, traders have also factored in the fact that the potential for a rate cut from the Bank of Canada had ...

JPM: The Dimon Bottom Hype Is Over
224 0 3
JPM, W
The Dimon Bottom Hype Is Over

CNBC has loved to refer the recent pullback in the SPX as the "Dimon Bottom" because CEO Jamie Dimon purchased roughly $26 million worth of JPM shares. However, it's not looking for those wanting to hold to believe in the recovery dream. Whether investors want to believe it or not, the U.S. economic cycle is rolling over; and, considering the very high ...

CommoditiesTrader CommoditiesTrader EURCHF, 240,
EURCHF: EURCHF At Key Technical Level Prior to ECB Meeting
167 0 6
EURCHF, 240
EURCHF At Key Technical Level Prior to ECB Meeting

The Swiss franc has seen some action as traders move in and out of safe-haven assets, no matter what the Swiss National Bank implements (franc futures has a .82 correlation with gold). With the ECB hinting that more quantitative easing is possible ahead of the rate decision March 10, the SNB may feel obliged to intervene to stop any significant appreciation in ...

CommoditiesTrader CommoditiesTrader XAUUSD, 240,
XAUUSD: Gold Intraday Technicals
521 0 6
XAUUSD, 240
Gold Intraday Technicals

Gold has pulled back slightly, but still up almost 15 percent since 2016. Traders don't believe the current rally as they look hopeful of more central bank quantitative easing, which is exactly why gold has had its run this year; and it is why I have been saying fundamentals have been strengthening for gold for roughly 16 months. After gold volatility hit ...

CommoditiesTrader CommoditiesTrader USDJPY, M,
USDJPY: Will the BoJ Increase QE In Two Weeks? Doesn't Matter.
472 0 1
USDJPY, M
Will the BoJ Increase QE In Two Weeks? Doesn't Matter.

With markets on edge and Japanese inflation data this week, those short the yen are hoping the Bank of Japan Governor, Haruhiko "Kamikaze" Kuroda, will further increase the balance sheet through more quantitative easing. Because when everything else fails, he'll try to go all in. Or will he? Essentially, his brilliant idea to implement negative rates, or NIRP, ...

CB2!: Brent Near-Term Outlook
408 0 1
CB2!, D
Brent Near-Term Outlook

Brent crude has been able to rally on little volume during the U.S. banking holiday and rumors surrounding a potential unified OPEC production cut, issued by the UAE energy minister just as WTI was carving out a 12 year low (and in the middle of the night, local time, no less.) Four days later, there has been no new reports of said production cut proposal, but ...

CommoditiesTrader CommoditiesTrader CADJPY, D,
CADJPY: Implications of Risk (CAD, WTI and Bonus Chart)
444 0 3
CADJPY, D
Implications of Risk (CAD, WTI and Bonus Chart)

CADJPY has been setting up to become a great selling opportunity on a macro-standpoint for the following reasons: I was looking for a drop well-before today's ...

CL1!: Crude Technical Outlook
1075 21 8
CL1!, M
Crude Technical Outlook

Crude started the new year with volatility, as prices initially rebounded into price resistance near $38/bbl on geopolitical tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia. However, the rally was short-lived and there looks to be no follow through in today's session. There are a few key factors to take into account: slow global growth, a decline in global demand growth ...

CommoditiesTrader CommoditiesTrader XAUUSD, 240,
XAUUSD: Gold Trends Near Resistance After Consecutive Session Gains
425 5 3
XAUUSD, 240
Gold Trends Near Resistance After Consecutive Session Gains

Currently, gold is budding up against intraday resistance, following two consecutive sessions of gains on a weaker dollar. As the rate hike came and went, many – even those who ushered in the hike with excitement – are beginning to wonder if the Federal Reserve waited far too long to boost interest rates. The yellow metal had began its two-day rally by finding ...

GC1!: Precious Metals Jump Ahead of FOMC
254 1 5
GC1!, D
Precious Metals Jump Ahead of FOMC

Precious metals jump higher ahead of today’s FOMC minutes and potentially the first rate hike in the U.S. since 2007. Why? It’s most likely contributed to the fact that the majority of market participants believe Fed Chair Janet Yellen will remain extremely dovish post-rate increase. A dovish hike may be a hard sell, as Nomura suggests, but precious metals may ...

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