SPX Monthly Log Scale: -Despite last years 28% decline, the defining uptrends remain intact. In my view, the A1-B1 trendline best defines the bull market but decent arguments can also be made for C-D. A test of C-D would require that the market decline roughly 30% from the most recent close. - In the absence of overtly bearish behaviors and with the primary...
Are you still waiting for 50K? While this kind of forecast is completely unrealistic and out of range, it is ESPECIALLY so in light of the new SELL SIGNAL that has appeared off of the 24K resistance following Friday's NFP outcome. As I wrote in my previous analysis, when 5 waves can be clearly counted, the move has likely run out of steam. While this is still a...
A "Rule of the Majority" (RM) signal occurs when one of the three main U.S stock indices; S&P 500 (SPX), Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI), Nasdaq Composite (IXIC) makes a new high or low unaccompanied by the other two indices. The signals occur at major, intermediate and sometime short-term market turns. Because of the difused nature of stock market tops,...
Why market is entering into short-term bullishness again and latter uncertainty or range? We will do both technical and fundamental analysis in this video tutorial, and we will see how both analyses can affirm each other. Refer to the related video link, I explained at greater length. Or you can always visit my YouTube channel. Content: . Why market is entering...
This week, we thought it will be interesting to review the trade from last week given the reaction post-FOMC, as well as discuss an alternative way to set up this trade. Firstly, let’s review the post-FOMC/employment data reaction. - Nonfarm Payrolls surprised to the upside, as over half a million jobs were added way above the estimates of a sub 200K...
The above chart shows the correlation between Bitcoin ( BTC ) and the Nasdaq 100 ETF ( QQQ ). The correlation between these two is the highest ever . See the chart below for a closer look. For the stats nerds out there, here are the current correlation values between BTC and QQQ (as measured by using monthly closing prices with a 20-period look back): r...
On February 1st, the Federal Reserve (Fed) announced a widely-expected 25bps rate hike. This was the rallying cry for the current market rally to continue. Is this confidence warranted? An interesting note is that the FOMC meeting minutes and the associated press conference appeared contradictory in nature because there was not a straightforward hawkish or dovish...
7. Jesse Livermore, the father of modern short selling Profit on trade: Around $100 million Event: 1929 Stock Market Crash He was probably one of the first examples of a successful ‘short-seller’. Way back at the start of the last century he shorted stocks just prior to the San Francisco earthquake. For this trade he managed to make $3 million. Obviously...
Following the FOMC’s rate hike, markets continued to rally yesterday until the closing bell when tech giants Alphabet, Amazon, and Apple reported their earnings. Bleak numbers poured cold water on a rally, and in after-market trading, Nasdaq 100 index fell more than 2.5%. However, this move quickly recovered, highlighting the market's growing fragility. With VIX...
At the moment there are a lot of internet "gurus" spouting nonsense. The guy in the picture is just one example. Over 500,000 subscribers being told that BITSTAMP:BTCUSD will be $50,000 in the next 3-4 months and to buy it up here after this rally. They are all telling you EXACTLY WHAT YOU WANT TO HEAR. When the price was $18,000 they were saying it was all...
Forward growth seems to be priced back into these hot high volume in the news stocks. Both Tesla and Facebook/meta have almost doubled in the last month. Dividend dow is not shunned and ignored as hot stocks are back in style. Fear in vix and junk bonds is low.
CBOT: Treasury Yield Spread 10Y-2YY ( CBOT_MINI:10Y1! CBOT_MINI:2YY1! ), Micro Dow ( CBOT_MINI:MYM1! ), Micro S&P ( CME_MINI:MES1! ) On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve raises its benchmark Fed Funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 4.5%-4.75%. The move marked the eighth consecutive hikes that have began in March 2022. The overnight risk-free rate is...
For traders it's not about what the Fed does or is going to do, it's about how the market reacts to what the Fed does. Today the FOMC raised rates by .25 basis points and the markets took off. As of right now the bulls are in control, but for how much longer? In today's video I go over how I will determine a market top and ways to tell if this rally still has...
In my experience there are phases to creating a strategy. In this episode we will cover one of the most important steps: establishing an exit strategy. Exiting a position is crucial to risk management. If your entries are terrible but you have a good exit strategy, you might get by and not lose a lot of your capital. And vice-versa, if your entries are great, but...
Those who have been reading our past 2 ideas will know we’ve been harping on and on about expected rate path and policy timelines. Why the recent obsession you ask? Because we think we’re on the cusp of major turning points. So, for the third time, let’s look at the market’s expected policy rate path. With FOMC coming up this week, we are expecting a 25bps...
Why market is entering into short-term bullishness again and latter uncertainty or range? We will do both technical and fundamental analysis in this video tutorial, and we will see how both analyses can affirm each other. Content: . Why market is entering into a short-term bullishness? (Fundamental & Technical studies) . Subsequently the market will enter into...
Trading in the financial markets, whether it be forex or cryptocurrency, can be a thrilling yet challenging experience. It requires a level of strategy, discipline, and risk tolerance to make informed decisions and reap profits. But, as traders, we are often faced with fears that can cloud our judgment and hinder our success in the market. To help you overcome...
This week things are very simple and the stakes are very high. In every significant timeframe, you can see how BTC is at a pivotal point but none other than the 1-week time frame gives us a better view. In this time frame alone you can see Bitcoin price having to overcome the 50MA (yellow wavy line), the 200MA (white wavy line), long-time support (thick straight...