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Silver Prices Stabilise Near Record HighsSilver Prices Stabilise Near Record Highs As the XAG/USD chart shows, the price of silver per ounce is consolidating near its all-time high, which lies above $85. Bullish sentiment dominates the market, as concerns over the independence of the US Federal Reserve, heightened geopolitical tensions, and other factors have fuelled demand for safe-haven metals. According to media reports: → Official authorities are exerting pressure on the Fed to cut interest rates, having opened a criminal case against its Chair. Powell, in turn, described these actions as a “pretext” for influencing the decisions of an independent financial institution. → Traders are also closely monitoring the escalation of protests in Iran, which could lead to US military involvement, alongside President Trump’s statements about the annexation of Greenland. In the aftermath of the operation in Venezuela, such scenarios are increasingly being viewed as realistic. Technical Analysis of the XAG/USD Chart On 29 December, we updated the previously drawn ascending channel and suggested a potential decline in silver prices towards its lower boundary, with a possible bearish breakout attempt. Indeed, prices moved down to the lower boundary. However, after the formation of an Inverted Head and Shoulders (IHS) pattern, bulls found support there and resumed the upward trend. The current consolidation in XAG/USD confirms the role of the channel median, which appears to act as a reference level acceptable to both buyers and sellers. That said, today’s CPI release could disrupt this balance. Possible scenarios include: → a pullback towards the psychological support around $80, where the bullish impulse marked by the arrow began; → a rise towards the QH line, which divides the upper half of the channel into two quarters. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FXOPEN:XAGUSD
by FXOpen
11
Litecoin: The Next PumpAfter years of posting my Monero KRAKEN:XMRUSD thesis based on its privacy use case it has finally catapulted into new All Time Highs and entered "price discovery." So I now look to what is next... focusing on PATTERN RECOGNITION FUNDAMENTALS: PRIVACY THE TRADE Pattern Recognition A recent post by Peter Brandt got me to check old, long dormant cryptocurrencies and I checked Litecoin $KRAKEN:LTCUSD. At first glance of the long term historic chart I can't help but notice the eerie similarity between Litecoin and two other recent random pumps: Silver and Monero These are assets with history of sporadic, massive volatility pumps that come after long periods of low volatility price action. Imagine spotting the next big pump before the crowd. That is what I imagine when I see a chart that looks like Litecoin right now. Fundamentals: Privacy Coins I attribute my success in going all-in on Monero to identifying the market change to valuing privacy coins early (3 years ago). It became clear to me that this use case was NOT being services by Bitcoin. There is value in privacy. Monero is "privacy by default". I'm not even going to waste time with the centralized "Z". But then there is Litecoin. Litecoin's Mimblewimble Extension Blocks (MWEB) provide optional on-chain privacy by hiding transaction amounts and breaking linkability between senders and receivers through confidential transactions, stealth addresses, and native mixing features. This opt-in upgrade keeps the main chain transparent while enabling private, fungible transfers in a parallel secure layer—perfect for cash-like digital payments without sacrificing Litecoin's speed or low fees. Litecoin is the smart, optional privacy play that keeps things fast and cheap—value in privacy, without the hassle. And most importantly Litecoin is ubiquitously listed on every exchange. It arguably has more potential speculative inflows than Monero which is widely DE-listed. The Trade: As a trader what interests me the most is DEFINED RISK. And Litecoin stands out extremely well in this regard because of October 10th: The October 10th, 2025 liquidation event - brought on by a random US market closed Friday evening Tweet by Trump - sent a shockwave across the cryptocurrency market. It liquidated billions in leveraged longs and put some market makers out of business. But it did something of incredible importance to us NOW: It defines where price should not go. Liquidations remove the excess leverage and stupidity of the market. Those traders are out, with less money, and frustrated. They are no longer there to fade rallies and may even FOMO back in when price finally goes the way they wanted. It's market psychology. Defined risk means you sleep easy—knowing exactly where to cut losses, while the upside plays out. If one sets a stop below major liquidation spikes it is a very effective true level to GET OUT of a trade. Because once the leverage is removed AND price still continues on its downward path you can be confident that the bear trend is actually REAL. "You know where your stop needs to be" Here are a few examples I can recall off the top of my head: The same October 10th, 2025 Spike on Bitcoin: The December 2021 Spike that ended the last Bull cycle. A historic example with the same result. We never can know for sure what will pump or dump but the patterns of price action around liquidation spikes let us know "Where our stop needs to be." So from a place of knowing where to get out of a trade we can size our risk. Then all we have to do is wait for upside. Trade wisely.
KRAKEN:LTCUSDLong
by norok
15
When Will Tesla’s Pilot Take Off?Hello Traders 👋 Hope you all are doing well and trading with discipline. Let’s analyze Tesla from a pure technical perspective and see where the next major move could unfold. Tesla is trading inside a well-defined rising channel, respecting both the rising support and the rising resistance, which clearly confirms a strong bullish market structure. After getting rejected from the 458–460 resistance zone, price did not break down. Instead, it formed a higher low on the rising support line, showing that buyers are still in control and dips are being accumulated. Now price is again approaching the same resistance, which makes this level extremely important. Repeated attacks on resistance usually weaken sellers and increase the probability of a breakout. A 4-hour close above 458 will confirm a range breakout, after which Tesla can quickly move toward the upper channel resistance around 510–520. This zone also aligns with a potential new all-time high breakout, making this setup very attractive from a risk-reward perspective. As long as price stays above the rising support zone (~430–435), the overall structure remains bullish and this pullback should be seen as a trend-continuation move, not a reversal. This is a classic example of smart money accumulation inside an uptrend before the next expansion. Trade Plan-: Entry: 4H close above 458 Stop-loss: Below 435 (rising support) Targets: 500 -515- New ATH zone. Regards- Amit.
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by AMIT-RAJAN
29
Post-Rally Consolidation, Awaiting CatalystHello everyone, Bitcoin is no longer in an expansion phase of the uptrend, but has shifted into a consolidation phase following the recent rally. From a structural perspective, the medium-term uptrend remains intact. Bitcoin continues to print higher highs and higher lows, with price holding above both the EMA 34 and EMA 89, while these two moving averages are still sloping upward. The key point here is that sellers have not been able to trigger any meaningful breakdown, especially failing to force a clear close below the EMA 89 — the critical dynamic support of the current trend. After setting a high around the 94,000 area, BTC pulled back and began moving sideways within a relatively tight range around 91,000–92,000. Many interpret this phase as a sign of weakness, but in my view, this behavior looks more like post-trend accumulation rather than distribution. The trading range is narrowing, volume is gradually declining, and each dip toward the EMA 89 is quickly met with buying interest, indicating that defensive capital is still present. A truly weak market would show a decisive break below the EMA 89, followed by aggressive selling on rebounds — and so far, that scenario has not materialized.
Long
by DomicChaina
18
Bitcoin - Holding The Middle, Eyes On The EdgeBitcoin continues to trade within a clearly defined range, with price currently positioned in the upper half of that structure. After a strong move away from the lower boundary, the market has shown acceptance above the midpoint, suggesting buyers are still active but now approaching an area where reactions are more likely. Range Structure And Key Zones The broader structure remains range-bound, with a well-respected low acting as the base and a clear resistance zone marking the top. The upper boundary of this range stands out as the most obvious pool of liquidity, making it a logical magnet for price before any meaningful directional decision is made. Internal Support Reaction Within the range, price recently reacted cleanly from a strong internal support area. This zone has previously acted as a pivot, showing multiple reactions and confirming its relevance. The current bounce from this level adds confidence that the move higher is not random, but instead supported by real participation from buyers. Liquidity Considerations Given the clarity of the range high, resting liquidity above that area is highly likely. From a liquidity perspective, it would make sense for price to continue pushing higher, take out those highs, and invite breakout traders into long positions. This type of behavior often precedes a reversal rather than sustained continuation. Projected Price Path If price continues to build on the internal support reaction, a move toward the range high becomes the most logical next step. A sweep of that high followed by rejection would align with classic range manipulation, where liquidity is taken before price rotates back into the range. Conclusion As long as the internal support holds, further upside remains plausible. However, the real area of interest sits at the range high, where a liquidity sweep and reversal scenario becomes increasingly attractive. Patience is key here, allowing price to show its hand at the most obvious level before committing to directional bias. ___________________________________ Thanks for your support! If you found this idea helpful or learned something new, drop a like 👍 and leave a comment, I’d love to hear your thoughts! 🚀
Long
by TehThomas
60
XAUUSD: Critical Supply Zone - Reaction May Define Next MoveHello everyone, here is my breakdown of the current XAUUSD setup. Market Analysis Gold is trading within a broader bullish environment, but recent price action shows signs of exhaustion near key resistance. After a period of consolidation inside a clear range, XAUUSD broke to the upside and formed a well-defined upward channel, confirming buyer control. This move brought price into the upper Resistance Zone around 4,590–4,600, where strong selling pressure emerged. Currently, at this level, price printed a fake breakout, indicating a lack of acceptance above resistance and trapping late buyers. Following this rejection, gold pulled back sharply and then staged a recovery, breaking above the local structure again and retesting the Support Zone near 4,530. This area aligns with previous resistance turned support and a rising triangle support line, which is currently being tested. Despite the bullish recovery, price is once again approaching the major resistance area, where sellers have previously shown strong interest. The market structure suggests that the current move is corrective within a larger resistance context rather than the start of a fresh impulsive rally. My Scenario & Strategy My primary scenario favors a short setup while price remains below or reacts strongly from the 4,590–4,600 Resistance Zone. A rejection from this area could trigger a move back toward the 4,530 Support Zone and potentially lower if selling momentum increases. However, a clean breakout and acceptance above 4,600 would invalidate the short bias and signal bullish continuation. Until that happens, the resistance area remains a key decision point, and caution is warranted near the highs. That’s the setup I’m watching. Thank you for your attention, and always manage your risk.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by Ratner
53
It's not about a strategy. It's about how you see yourself. When I first started trading, after beginners luck period, I honestly believed the strategy was the missing piece that would fix everything, like once I found the right setup the market would finally “make sense,” my losses would stop, and I’d just execute trades like a machine and collect profits on schedule. So I did what most beginners do, I went on the hunt, watching hours of content, saving charts, screenshotting models, changing my templates, and telling myself I was “learning,” when in reality I was just chasing certainty because I hated the feeling of taking losses. And if you fall into the ICT universe, that hunt becomes endless, because there’s always another video, another name, another “new” concept that looks fresh on the thumbnail but feels suspiciously like an old idea with a new label, and it keeps you busy enough to feel productive while you quietly avoid the one thing you actually need to face. 🧪 That’s the doom loop. You lose, it hurts, you blame the method, you go searching for a better one, and you repeat, not because you’re lazy, but because your brain is trying to protect you from pain by convincing you the solution is more knowledge. Later I found its not strategy what makes you profitable, but you. You turn it in to profits. Let me explain why. 🧪 How is this possible? Same strategy in hands of two traders - One person will make make money, get funded and retire and another will keep blowing accounts, frustrated and at some point start to look for another new better strategy again. How ? If they both have good strategy? It's about how you see yourself. How you see yourself you will behave. ❌ Self Image - Identity - Wrong aproach Beginners always thinking, once Im profitable and funded I will be disciplined, doing weekly reviews, proper risk management on serious money, journaling. I will be selective on my traders, I will not overtrade, but now I need to first pass that prop challenge quickly etc.... But it's not working this way. It works other way around. ✅ Self Image - Identity - Real Change Ask yourself what is profitable trader doing ? What is his Daily, Weekly Habits / Routines ? Visualize such person and write down everything what you think profitable person is doing. - Longterm thinking in years advance - Build confidence in his strategy by backtesting - Preparing trading plan on the weekends - Updating charts daily at same time - Understanding Market context and conditions - Having a Clear Trading rules - Journaling Trades for continuous improvement - Reviewing Trades / Self - Analysis - Patient in waiting for A+ Setups - Consistent in work on daily basis - Controlling risk per trade - Not in need to trade every day - Learning from each loss - Controlling fear and greed - Not revenge trading - Not proving to anyone not competing - Only competition is my yesterdays self - Managing his time out trading - Trading is not center of his life but a tool - Prioritizing sleep and recovery - Eating organic food , hydrating - Hitting the Gym going for walks - Use Social media for business not as slave - Reading the books - Meditating 15 minutes a day - Does Stretching and take care of his body - Saying No to everything what is not aligned with his goals ‼️Visualizing this is not task for the 5 minutes, you really need to think about it and write it down to the paper. This is how you define the habits and routines of profitable trader - Your New-self. 💊 Transform it to your new identity Sit down every day and meditate 10 minutes. Visualize yourself and your day with this new identity. Literally visualize how you are doing Market preparations on the weekends, how you update the charts , how you review the trades , but also how are disciplined in other parts of your life as gym, eating healthy, sleeping at same time. Simply having all routines in a check. * Self imager visualization is a proven method from a book - Psychocybernetics from Maxwell Maltz - find it read it, it will change your life 🧠 Importance of strategy If you do all the above strategy really doesnt matter. I only suggest you try to keep it as much mechanical as possible, without subjective diagonal lines and patterns. You need to have approach with fixed criteria and rules for Entry, SL and TP . So you can measure performance and statistical data. Only this way you can improve over time and control your emotions as fear and greed. How? 🧪 Fear Why would you fear opening the next trade after a loss or closing early, if you know that on average you win 75 out of 100 trades? Distribution is random, but with a positive win rate, you win over time. Why would you close early if you know that your TP was hit in 75 out of 100 ? 🧪 Greed Why would you set unrealistic targets when your statistics already show what RR is most profitable for you? And why would you gamble big lot sizes if you know you can lose 35 trades out of 100? It doesn't make sense to gambler right? 🧪 Revenge Trading Why do it, if you know losses are part of the process and that if you just stick to the plan, you’ll win long-term? Why your statistics says so. You know how your A+ Setup looks like, when stopped out why re-entering again if setup is not valid. 🧪 Overtrading Why trade every day if your A+ setup doesn’t occur every day? If your data says the best setups occur 3 times per week, why force it? Why risk extra trades if you already made profit or if you didn’t perform well this week, why gamble it all on Friday? 🧠 See ? Having a fixed mechanical solution backed by backtested statistical data is solution to all emotional challenges in trading. Believing this magic strategy nonsense is what keeping you from getting funded. ⁉️ Promise to yourself and Commit to continuous improvement. Every Saturday find 90 minutes to review your week and ask these questions 📌 1) Was there a type of trade that did/didn’t work well? Yes - Journal - repeat next time No - Journal - avoid next time 📌 2) Did I followed my plan exactly as described? No - Why ? Write self reflection Yes - confirm yourself what you do is right 📌 3) Was there any setups I missed ? Yes - Journal them - reviewing trades you didnt take is first step to take them next time. 📌 4) Did I enter trades too soon? Yes - Why ? - Didnt wait for the candle close ? 📌 5) Did I enter trades too late? Yes - Why I was trying to fomo in to trade ? 📌 6) Did I set TP , SL as per plan? If not - remind it yourself in the journal 📌 You can expand this with many other question as following. - Did I take profits too soon? - Did I take profits too late? - Did I put my stops loss too tight? - Did I use an unnecessarily big stop loss? - Did I take take any trades with poor Risk:Reward ratio? - Did I risk too much? - Did I risk too little? - Did I deviate from my trading model? - Did I deviate from my plan? ✌️The goal is to be aware of mistakes and journal them its the only way to start to eliminating them. Simply - NO JOURNAL = NO SUCCESS. Becoming profitable is not about a strategy, but about how you see yourself and what habits you adopt, consistently sticking to one strategy and improving yourself on weekly basis. Define your new identity and start applying it consistently and this is how you change your trading. --------------------------------- I promised myself I’d become the person I once needed the most as a beginner. Below are links to a powerful lessons I shared on Tradingview. Hope it can help you avoid years of trial and error I went thru. 📊 Sharpen your trading Strategy ⚙️ 100% Mechanical System - Complete Strategy 🔁 Daily Bias – Continuation 🔄 Daily Bias – Reversal 🧱 Key Level – Order Block 📉 How to Buy Lows and Sell Highs 🎯 Dealing Range – Enter on pullbacks 💧 Liquidity – Basics to understand 🕒 Timeframe Alignments 🚫 Market Narratives – Avoid traps 🐢 Turtle Soup Master – High reward method 🧘 How to stop overcomplicating trading 🕰️ Day Trading Cheat Code – Sessions 🇬🇧 London Session Trading 🔍 SMT Divergence – Secret Smart Money signal 📐 Standard Deviations – Predict future targets 🎣 Stop Hunt Trading 💧 Liquidity Sweep Mastery 🔪 Asia Session Setups 📀 Gold Strategy 🧠 Level Up & Mindset 🛕 Monk Mode – Transition from 9–5 to full-time trading ⚠️ Trading Enemies – Habits that destroy success 🔄 Trader’s Routine – Build discipline daily 💪 Get Funded - $20 000 Monthly Plan 🧪 Winning Trading Plan ⭕ Backtesting vs Reality 🛡️ Risk Management 🏦 Risk Management for Prop Trading 📏 Risk in % or Fixed Position Size 🔐 Risk Per Trade – Keep consistency 🧪 Risk Reward vs Win Ratio 💎 Catch High Risk Reward Setups ☯️ Smart Money - Who control Markets Adapt useful, Reject useless and add what is specifically yours. David Perk
Education
by David_Perk
54
NVIDIA Huge Head & Shoulders forming. $127 technical Target.NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) is in the process of completing the Right Shoulder of a Head and Shoulders (H&S) pattern, having turned sideways since the October 29 2025 High (ATH). With the 1D RSI on Lower Highs, i.e. a Bearish Divergence since July 17 2025, it is possible that within a month's time max, the stock will break its Support and the H&S will target its technical extension, the 2.0 Fibonacci at $127.00. --- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** --- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
NASDAQ:NVDAShort
by TradingShot
26
AUDUSD Trend continuation pattern supported at 0.6637The AUDUSD remains in a bullish trend, with recent price action showing signs of a breakout within the broader uptrend. Support Zone: 0.6637 – a key level from previous consolidation. Price is currently testing or approaching this level. A bullish rebound from 0.6637 would confirm ongoing upside momentum, with potential targets at: 0.6756 – initial resistance 0.6780 – psychological and structural level 0.6800 – extended resistance on the longer-term chart Bearish Scenario: A confirmed break and daily close below 0.6637 would weaken the bullish outlook and suggest deeper downside risk toward: 0.6620 – minor support 0.6600 – stronger support and potential demand zone Outlook: Bullish bias remains intact while the AUDUSD holds above 0.6637 A sustained break below this level could shift momentum to the downside in the short term. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by Trade Nation
14
Parabolic Moves Don’t Always End in Collapse — Silver ExplainedI’ve seen many analyses from my colleagues where 1980 and 2011 are used not as upside projections, but as collapse templates for silver. The argument is simple and visually convincing: silver has already gone parabolic, therefore the next chapter must be a collapse similar to those historical episodes. I understand the logic. I don’t predict the future, and I can’t categorically deny that such an outcome is possible. But here’s where I draw a clear line: similar-looking charts do not guarantee similar outcomes, especially when the underlying drivers are fundamentally different. And in silver’s case, they are different. Let’s be precise about what 1980 really was (and why it collapsed) The 1980 silver collapse is often treated as a “natural law of parabolic moves”. In reality, it was not a natural market outcome. It was the direct consequence of extreme concentration and leverage, driven by the Hunt brothers. What made 1980 fragile by design - The Hunts accumulated an extraordinary share of the global silver supply, both physical and paper. - They used massive leverage in a relatively small and illiquid market. - The price did not rise because global demand structurally changed — it rose because supply was artificially constrained. - Once exchanges changed the rules (margin hikes, liquidation-only trading), the entire structure collapsed under its own weight. This is critical: The collapse of 1980 was not caused by silver being “too expensive”. It was caused by the system forcibly unwinding a concentrated position. So when someone says “this looks like 1980”, the real question is: - Where is today’s equivalent of that concentration? - Who controls 30–40% of deliverable supply? - What single entity is forced to liquidate? If that element is missing, then the collapse logic weakens dramatically. 2011: parabolic, yes — structurally unstable, also yes 2011 is a more honest comparison, and this is where many collapse arguments focus. Silver: - rallied aggressively, - became a retail darling, - and eventually collapsed hard. But again, the reason it collapsed matters. Why 2011 unraveled - The rally was dominated by financial demand, not structural necessity. - ETFs, leverage, and macro fear created fast money flows. - When liquidity tightened and risk appetite faded, demand evaporated quickly. - There was no structural constraint on supply forcing price stability. In other words: - 2011 collapsed because demand was reversible. - Once sentiment flipped, there was nothing underneath to slow the fall. Now comes the disagreement: why I don’t expect a 1980/2011-style collapse this time Yes — I fully agree on one thing: extreme volatility is coming, or is already here (yes, more extreme than we've seen!) Silver doesn’t trend quietly. It never has. But volatility and collapse are not the same thing. The key difference today: the type of demand Today’s silver market is not driven solely by: - fear, - speculation, - or monetary narratives. A large and growing portion of demand is industrial and strategic: - electrification, - energy transition, - technology infrastructure. That demand: - doesn’t disappear overnight, - doesn’t panic-sell because RSI is overbought, - and doesn’t care about chart symmetry. This changes the downside dynamics. Supply cannot respond the way people assume Another overlooked point: - most silver production is a by-product of other metals. - higher prices do not instantly bring new supply online. In 1980 and 2011, supply dynamics were not a binding constraint. Today, they are. That doesn’t mean price can’t drop — it means drops are more likely to be violent corrections, not structural collapses. About the “parabolic = must collapse” logic This is where I respectfully disagree with many analysts. A parabolic move tells you: - volatility is increasing, - positioning is crowded, - risk management becomes essential. It does not automatically tell you: - the entire move must fully retrace, - or that price discovery was fake. Markets can: - correct through time instead of price, - form wide ranges, - or retrace partially and rebase. History offers multiple outcomes, not a single script. My base case (clear and unemotional) - Yes, I expect extreme swings. - Yes, I expect sharp pullbacks that will scare most participants. - No, I do not see a clear mechanism today for a 1980-style forced collapse. - And unlike 2011, I don’t believe demand disappears just because momentum cools. This is not optimism. It’s structure-based reasoning. Trading perspective (grounded) Because I expect volatility: - I don’t chase vertical candles. - I respect levels, not narratives. - I scale, I take partial profits, and I allow room for noise. - I treat silver as a dangerous instrument, not a lottery ticket. Being right about direction is useless if volatility kicks you out first. Final thought My colleagues may be right — markets can always surprise. But assuming collapse just because the chart looks familiar is lazy analysis. 1980 collapsed because of forced concentration unwind. 2011 collapsed because of reversible financial demand. Today, silver is volatile — not hollow. And that distinction matters more than any historical overlay. The market will decide. My job is to respect risk, not marry analogies 🚀 Best of luck! Mihai Iacob
OANDA:XAGUSDEducation
by Mihai_Iacob
50
Bitcoin - 2026 roadmap, pump to 100k, then crash to 57k!Is it possible that Bitcoin will go above 100k or 103k in the next weeks/months? And is it possible that Bitcoin will later drop heavily to 57k? Altcoin season during the rise to 103k? I will answer these questions in this post. Write a comment with your altcoin, hit the like button, and I will make an analysis for you in response. On the chart we can see a long-term linear chart of Bitcoin (2017 - 2026). As we can see, Bitcoin crashed by 85% in 2018 and by 77% in 2022. The next crash is apparently scheduled for 2026 - Bitcoin can drop below 60k to make at least a 54% correction. This correction will not be that dramatic most likely, because institutional investors joined the crypto market with ETFs, but it's still a significant drop. Why below 60k (precisely 57,802)? This is a very significant point of interest for traders/investors for multiple reasons. The first reason is that there is a strong Fibonacci level of 0.618 of the previous bull market. This is the strongest fibo level on the market. The next reason is the 200 weekly moving average. Usually big banks and institutional investors use this specific 200-period to buy and accumulate their assets. They are usually not interested in buying at the peak - they wait for pullbacks. Now we have to take a look at the Elliott Wave theory, which works on Bitcoin perfectly from my point of view. We already had a big drop from 125k to 81k at the end of 2025. It looks like we can mark this wave as wave (A) or (W). Currently wave (B) or (X) is in progress and this is a bullish corrective wave that can bring the price up to 100k or 103k In this case that would be a perfect 1:1 FIB extension for an ABC correction to 57k. So there is a possibility of going up in Q1/Q2 but in Q3/Q4 we may see a huge crash! Of course this is just a speculation, we have to take all scenarios into consideration. We need to see more data in the coming days and weeks to confirm this scenario. Thank you, and I wish you successful trades!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Xanrox
185
Gold Strengthens as Geopolitical Risk IncreasesGold Strengthens as Geopolitical Risk Increases Gold continues to respect a bullish market structure, with price developing a clear impulsive sequence followed by shallow corrective waves. The recent pullback found support near the 4,400 zone (wave iv), and price is now pushing higher again, confirming buyers’ control. The bullish scenario remains intact. A clean continuation higher could first target the resistance zone 4,548. A breakthrough at the top of the structure 4548 should push GOLD easily to 4,600. If momentum remains strong, the next major upside target is located near 4,650. On the fundamental side, gold is also benefiting from rising geopolitical uncertainty. Recent geopolitical tensions fueled by Trump’s rhetoric and positioning regarding Greenland have added another layer of risk sentiment to global markets. Any escalation or uncertainty in U.S.–European relations tends to support safe-haven assets such as gold, reinforcing the bullish technical outlook. You may find more details in the chart! Thank you and Good Luck! PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day Previous Analysis:
FX:XAUUSDLong
by KlejdiCuni
42
Stocks Shake as Prosecutors Go After Fed Boss Powell. Now What?Wall Street went into the weekend riding record highs — and came back to something that felt more like a political thriller than a macro update. US stock futures slipped after news broke that the Department of Justice has opened a criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, sharply escalating President Donald Trump’s long-running standoff with the central bank. Early Monday morning, Dow DJ:DJI futures fell 200 points , while S&P 500 futures SP:SPX dropped 0.5% and Nasdaq NASDAQ:IXIC futures slid as much as 1% as traders trimmed risk and tried to digest a scenario that few had on their morning to-do list: the Fed chair facing potential indictment. It’s not every Monday you wake up wondering whether the world’s most powerful central banker might be spending more time with lawyers than economists. 🎥 Powell Goes on Camera — and Draws a Line In an unusual move for a Fed Chair, Powell took to video Sunday evening to confirm that federal prosecutors had issued grand jury subpoenas and were weighing criminal charges related to his June testimony before the Senate Banking Committee about the $2.5 billion renovation of the Fed’s headquarters. Powell didn’t mince words. “This is not about the renovation,” he said. “This is about whether the Fed will be able to continue to set interest rates based on evidence and economic conditions — or whether monetary policy will be directed by political pressure.” Powell’s term is set to expire in May. 🐴 Trump Enters, Stage Right President Trump denied any involvement in the probe — but didn’t miss the chance to throw a few verbal jabs. “I don’t know anything about it,” he told NBC News. “But he’s certainly not very good at the Fed, and he’s not very good at building buildings.” This comes after months of Trump calling Powell a “stubborn mule” and a “major loser” for refusing to slash interest rates faster. Markets are now left to navigate a delicate question: What happens when a sitting Fed chair is legally threatened by a White House that wants lower rates? 🏅 Gold Does What Gold Does Best The answer, at least initially, was written in shiny metal. Gold OANDA:XAUUSD surged to a record $4,600 per ounce in Asia, up as much as 2%, before settling slightly lower. Bullion tends to pop when central bank independence appears under threat, and this episode checks that box in bold red ink. When traders worry that politics might start steering monetary policy, they reach for the oldest hedge in the book. 📈 Stocks Were at Record Highs The irony here is that this political drama arrives at a time when markets have been in remarkably good shape. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones both closed Friday at all-time highs, capping a winning week. The S&P gained more than 1%, while the Dow and Nasdaq posted even stronger gains. Throughout 2025, markets largely ignored Trump’s attempts to jawbone the Fed as Powell cut rates three times anyway. Inflation stabilized. Growth held up. Investors shrugged and kept buying. 🧭 Why This Matters More Than One Man If investors start to believe that US monetary policy could be influenced by political threats, the risk premium on everything from Treasuries to tech stocks shifts. That’s why gold jumped. That’s why futures dipped. And that’s why forex markets are quietly paying attention with the US dollar on the defensive. A politicized central bank is a different animal — and not one markets are used to feeding. 📊 Meanwhile, Earnings Amid all the legal and political noise, something very normal is about to happen: earnings season kicks off this week. JPMorgan NYSE:JPM , Bank of America NYSE:BA , Morgan Stanley NYSE:MS , and Goldman Sachs NYSE:GS are all set to report, offering the first hard look at consumer spending, deal flow, and trading activity for the past quarter. Those results may do more to stabilize or unsettle markets than any headline. If the banks deliver solid numbers, investors may decide that politics is background noise — unless there’s a new escalation. 🧠 The Takeaway Powell’s legal drama has introduced a new variable into an otherwise optimistic setup: strong earnings, falling inflation, and record-high stocks are joined by a political spectacle. Whether this becomes a lasting shock or a brief tremor depends on how the story evolves. Traders right now are doing what they always do in moments like this: trimming risk, buying a little protection, and waiting for clarity. Off to you : Where do you see this whole thing headed? Share your views in the comments!
SP:SPX
by TradingView
8
A letter to myself. (Buy the dip)This is phase one of a global technological financial system. If our parents even parked a fraction of their cash here 10–20 years ago the long-term payoff would have been nice, but they didn't and it's okay because they didn't know. We now have the privilege of choosing to contribute to our financial future in ways that were previously out of reach for everyday people because we couldn't even fathom the future the internet is today. This data from the adoption curve theory further supports that we're adopting this cryptocurrency. With clearer signals from regulators and pro-crypto movements gaining traction in U.S. political leadership, confidence and liquidity have been rising. Under the current administration, regulatory clarity and initiatives like a strategic Bitcoin/Digital Asset stockpile have helped sentiment in crypto. We're currently at a 3.12T marketcap (2026JAN11) Regardless of sentiment. Here's the play: 🔄 Elliott Wave Structure — Strength in #'s We’re observing a 1–5 multi-year impulse wave, often followed by an A-B-C corrective phase: Impulse (1–5) = trend direction (up) ABC Correction = pullback phase after a trend leg before continuation A = first leg down B = bounce / retrace up C = final leg down completing correction Right now, we’re in an ABC retracement within a larger uptrend — meaning the market is consolidating against the bull trend. This correction doesn’t invalidate the uptrend until key Elliott rules are broken. We're also approaching the 200MA which is (rolling) key support resistance to keep an eye on. That’s why we plan to DCA (dollar-cost average) — buying strength and weakness — to build positions regardless of short-term noise. This sets us up for a disciplined exit strategy when the next upward leg resumes. It's an election year, so this is a key fundamental day that will affect market prices. Don't forget, this is early innings in a new global financial network. When BTC goes up we see the altcoin market react. (The Money Flow Cycle) Large Caps Mid Caps Small Caps Micro Caps Long-term participation with risk management beats short-term guessing. The next big move up rewards the prepared, not the reactive. Park into mid caps / small caps at your own risk. I personally are heavy VeChain (#VET) (#VECHAIN) simply because of the fact that it's an L1 that has been around YOY through bull/bear markets, has great partnerships, geared towards a sustainable future, and it's pennies on the dollar. With a higher risk will come a higher reward and im willing to wait for the delay of PA that seems to occur YOY since observing BTC since 2019. Remember to DYOR don't investing anything you're not willing to lose and always remember. "Time in the market, beats timing the market." - Isaiah
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Zaaylyfts
16
Chart Patterns ranked by reliability (1-8)Chart Patterns as a Strategy (Not a System) In the world of technical analysis, chart patterns are often marketed as stand-alone trading systems. In reality, their real edge comes from probabilistic structure recognition, not prediction. The key insight from my large-sample testing (10 years, 200,000+ patterns (Futures, FX)) is this: Patterns don’t predict direction — they quantify structural bias once price has already revealed intent. That distinction is what separates profitable traders from pattern collectors. How These Patterns Were Tested (Why the Stats Matter) All patterns discussed below were: Only counted once fully completed Required confirmed breaks of structure (trendline, neckline, or support/resistance) Measured using objective projection rules, not discretionary targets TP Rule: Full Head and Shoulder Height, using the Head distance and the right shoulder as the SL. Full Height of triangles, and a full height for flags as well. Twice the height of the Channel as TP, and Time TP for Channels, for half of the duration of the it. Rectangles were Full Box Width as TP, and a time-based TP of 1/4 the Length. It could be trailed further, but some such as Rectangle TP made great mean-reversion trade. This removes hindsight bias — a major flaw in most pattern discussions. Continuation Patterns (Trend Context Is Mandatory). #8. Bull & Bear Flags (~67%) (Alt. Name: Cups, Volatility Contraction Pattern) Occur after near-vertical impulse moves, typically the 50 EMA can filter the direction. Represent temporary pauses, not reversals. Best when: Flag is tight Forms near the extreme of the impulse Volume contracts during consolidation Professional takeaway: Flags are trend health checks, not entries. If a flag fails, momentum is likely exhausted. #7. Ascending & Descending Triangles (~73%) Market compresses against a hard level One side shows aggression, the other absorption Breakout confirms institutional imbalance Use them to answer: “Is price being accumulated or distributed?” #6. Ascending & Descending Channels (~73%) (Alt. Name: Cups & Handle) Wide consolidations between parallel trendlines Stronger than flags due to time + participation Breakouts often lead to measured trend continuation Key insight: Channels are delayed continuation, not indecision. Reversal Patterns (Confirmation Is Everything) The Joker: Double Tops & Bottoms (75–79%) Require structural failure Completion only occurs after neckline break Bottoms outperform tops statistically (markets rise faster than they fall) ⚠️ Common mistake: Anticipating the second top/bottom instead of waiting for confirmation. The Queen: Triple Tops & Bottoms (77–79%) Stronger due to repeated rejection Represent exhaustion of dominant participants Interpretation: The market tried three times — and failed. The King: Rectangle Patterns (~78–80%) Flat consolidation after a trend, more than 3 touches top and bottom. Essentially failed reversal attempts. Breakouts often trap traders positioned against the trend, it's best to enter on retest of breakout or earlier at the Bear-Bull Midline of the Box. Critical lesson: Most “double tops” fail — and turn into rectangles. The Ace: Head & Shoulders (~83%) Why it works so well: Clear distribution → failure → confirmation Captures institutional exit mechanics Neckline break aligns with order-flow imbalance Both regular and inverted versions are the most reliable classical patterns when properly confirmed. ⚠️ Common mistake: It's easy to mistake a Head and Shoulders with another pattern like a Double or Triple Bottom if it's neckline is not broken well. The Trap Pattern: Pennants (~55%) Despite being taught alongside flags: Pennants break against trend too often Over-compression increases randomness Lack clear structural dominance, Pivot HL are spots where trader's should sell. Professional rule: If it looks too tight, it’s probably a coin flip. It's better to target Equal High and Lows to the left as TP. How Professionals Actually Use Chart Patterns We don’t trade patterns — we trade what they imply. Patterns help answer: Is the market accepting or rejecting price? Are participants trapped or in control? Is this continuation, transition, or reversal? They work best when combined with: Market structure (HH/HL, LH/LL) Time-of-day context Volume or order-flow Higher-timeframe bias Final Truth About Pattern Accuracy Pattern Type Role Best Use Flags / Channels Continuation Trend validation Triangles Pressure build Breakout bias Double / Triple Reversal Failure detection Rectangles Continuation Trap identification Head & Shoulders Reversal Distribution confirmation Pennants ❌ Avoid
SP:SPXEducation
by GabrielAmadeusLau
12
Meta Is Down Nearly 20% Since August. Here's What Its Chart Says"Magnificent Seven" stock Meta Platforms NASDAQ:META has fallen nearly 20% since hitting an all-time high in August, and has also trailed the S&P 500 SP:SPX in various timeframes from three months to one year. Let's see what its chart and fundamental analysis can show us. Meta's Fundamental Analysis Meta has been struggling of late, with some on Wall Street wondering if the company -- which owns Facebook and Instagram -- got ahead of itself as far as capex spending on artificial intelligence is concerned. For instance, word emerged last week META is paying more than $2 billion to acquire Manus, a Singapore-headquartered AI start-up. Manus specializes in autonomous AI systems that reason, make decisions and execute multi-step tasks with minimal oversight for small- to medium-sized businesses. The Wall Street Journal reported that the start-up was headed into a fundraising round hoping to value the company at roughly $2 billion when Meta made contact. The purchase came about a month ahead of META's Q4 earnings, which Wall Street expects the tech giant to report in late January. Analysts' consensus estimates call at last check for the tech giant to report $8.17 of GAAP earnings per share on $58.3 billion of revenue. That would represent a 1.9% gain from the year-ago period's $8.02 in EPS, as well as a 20.5% y/y improvement on Q4 2024's $48.4 billion of revenue. Meanwhile, 27 of the 40 sell-side analysts that I can find that cover META have increased their Q4 earnings estimates since the period began, while just 10 have cut their numbers. (Three have made no changes.) Meta's Technical Analysis Now let's check out META's chart going back some six months and running through last Tuesday afternoon (Dec. 30): Readers will see that since early August, META has been developing a very large pennant formation, marked with the two diagonal black lines above. Closing pennants often produce a significant move, although they don't indicate in advance whether the move will be up or down. Meanwhile, there seems to be some negativity in this chart ... or does there? On one hand, Meta's 50-day Simple Moving Average (or "SMA," denoted by a blue line above) crossed below the stock's 200-day SMA (the red line) in mid-December. That's a so-called "death cross," which is traditionally a bearish technical sign. However, that signal's bearishness is greatly diminished if the 200-day SMA is rising at the time of the cross, as is the case here. Similarly, Meta's 21-day Exponential Moving Average (or "EMA," marked with a green line) has caught up to the stock's 50-day SMA. That's traditionally a short-term bullish signal used by swing traders. Additionally, Meta's Relative Strength Index (the gray line at the chart's top) is better than neutral and has been rising. At the same time, the stock's daily Moving Average Convergence divergence indicator (or "MACD," marked with black and gold lines and blue bars at the chart's bottom) looks well positioned. For example, the histogram of the 9-day EMA (the blue bars) has been in positive territory since Thanksgiving. That's a short-term bullish signal. On top of that, Meta's 12-day EMA (the black line) and 26-day EMA (the gold line) are both above zero, with the 12-day EMA above the 26-day EMA. All of that makes for a medium-term bullish signal. There's also more positivity if we look at Meta's chart going back to mid-September: Here, we see a cup-with-handle pattern with a $676 apparent pivot vs. the $658.79 that META ended at on Monday. That's a bullish set-up. True, the stock has had trouble taking that pivot, as it's running close to that all-important 200-day SMA (again, marked with a red line above). However, notice the unfilled gap that Meta created in late October (marked with the orange oval at the chart's center). Now, technical analysts know that unfilled gaps don't always have to fill, but they typically do so eventually. META needs to trade at $751.67 or better to fill that gap -- again, compared to the $658.79 the stock closed at on Monday. So, this is another bullish signal. An Options Option A bullish options trader might use a "buy-write" strategy in this scenario. That's where the trader buys the stock, but also sells an out-of-the-money covered call to drive down his or her net basis to something well below a key level such as the 50-day SMA. Here's an example: -- Long 100 shares of META at or close to Friday's $650.40 finish -- Short one META $675 call with a Jan. 30 expiration (i.e., after the next expected earnings report) for a credit of about $17.10. Net Basis: $633.30. This trader wants to be long META, but is willing to risk having their shares called away in order to lower the person's net basis to well below META's current market. If META trades below $675 at expiration, the person will still own 100 shares of stock at a $633.10 net basis. And if META trades at or above $675 at expiration, the trader will have sold his or her equity stake through assignment on the short call at $675, for a $41.90-per-share net profit. (Moomoo Technologies Inc. Markets Commentator Stephen "Sarge" Guilfoyle had no position in META at the time of writing this column.) This article discusses technical analysis, other approaches, including fundamental analysis, may offer very different views. The examples provided are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended to be reflective of the results you can expect to achieve. Specific security charts used are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Past investment performance does not indicate or guarantee future success. Returns will vary, and all investments carry risks, including loss of principal. This content is also not a research report and is not intended to serve as the basis for any investment decision. The information contained in this article does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material. Moomoo and its affiliates make no representation or warranty as to the article's adequacy, completeness, accuracy or timeliness for any particular purpose of the above content. Furthermore, there is no guarantee that any statements, estimates, price targets, opinions or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Options trading is risky and not appropriate for everyone. Read the Options Disclosure Document ( j.moomoo.com ) before trading. Options are complex and you may quickly lose the entire investment. Customers should consider their investment objectives and risks carefully before investing in options. Because of the importance of tax considerations to all options transactions, the customer considering options should consult their tax advisor as to how taxes affect the outcome of each options strategy. Supporting documents for any claims will be furnished upon request. Options trading subject to eligibility requirements. Strategies available will depend on options level approved. Maximum potential loss and profit for options are calculated based on the single leg or an entire multi-leg trade remaining intact until expiration with no option contracts being exercised or assigned. These figures do not account for a portion of a multi-leg strategy being changed or removed or the trader assuming a short or long position in the underlying stock at or before expiration. Therefore, it is possible to lose more than the theoretical max loss of a strategy. Moomoo is a financial information and trading app offered by Moomoo Technologies Inc. In the U.S., investment products and services on Moomoo are offered by Moomoo Financial Inc., Member FINRA/SIPC. TradingView is an independent third party not affiliated with Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Technologies Inc., or its affiliates. Moomoo Financial Inc. and its affiliates do not endorse, represent or warrant the completeness and accuracy of the data and information available on the TradingView platform and are not responsible for any services provided by the third-party platform.
NASDAQ:META
by moomoo
4
Developing A Trading Philosophy: Experimenting With IndicatorsIn our last video we were talking about the concept of the causes and effect on price action. What causes price to move in a certain direction vs. what the effects of the price action. We came to the conclusion, that indicators are not causes of price action, but they are a different way of looking at the price. Therefore, price action dictates what happens to the indicator. On the other hand things like market structure elements, supply and demand areas, order block, order flows, imbalances (Fair Value Gaps), etc.. are examples of price action causes. In this video we are showing our experiment on using a playbook that depends totally on indicators which are, as we said, price action effects, not causes. The experiment was positive. The annual return was crazy. Crazy when we think of it in terms of investment. This video shows a total annual return of more than 54%. I am not sure what business brings such net returns. Still we need to look at some of the hidden teachings within this experiment. This such as the necessity of a static stop loss vs. a stop loss based change of story. Another concept that came out of this experiment which is the difference in returns with higher timeframes over lower timeframes. The weekly time frame brought in around 40% of the total 54%, while daily was responsible for only 14% of those returns. Next week we will be moving this experiment to a Demo Account. Last week the experiment was made using the "Replay" feature in TradingView with the period between 1st of Jan 2025 and end of 2025. Additionally, we will be experimenting on "Replay" adding market structure and SMC elements to the play book and see the effect on the total performance. Those experiments are vey useful to me to arrive at developing my trading philosophy and my general trading strategy. It will definitely play a big role in facilitating the development of an exact playbook. I hope that as much as what I am doing is beneficial to me, it is also beneficial to the trading community. The Investor
Education
by TheInvestor_Diary
6
Challenges of Fading and OverextensionIntroduction Fading is a strategy where a position is taken against the prevailing move, based on the expectation that it is overextended and likely to reverse. While mean reversion is a valid market phenomenon, some methods are built on incomplete beliefs about how markets operate. From Normal to Deviation Markets can be evaluated relative to their recent or average behavior. Price movement within these bounds is considered normal, while a notable move beyond them is referred to as a deviation. This is interpreted as an overextension, where indicators tend to show overbought or oversold values. However, overextension does not necessarily imply that exhaustion is present. It simply marks a departure from normal behavior. Whether this leads to reversal or continued movement depends on broader market context. Markets also tend to exhibit volatility clustering; periods of high volatility are followed by further volatility, and calm periods tend to persist. In other words, a strong move often leads to another. This challenges a common bias that an extended move must suspend or reverse. The Limitations of Indicators Indicators can show when price has moved outside a reference point. For example, oscillators, boundaries, or momentum values may signal overbought or oversold conditions. However, these readings are not signals on their own. The broader context matters more and determines whether the move is likely to reverse or continue. In this chart, price moves outside the upper envelope on two separate occasions, each showing a deviation from recent average behavior. In the first case, the move results in a successful reversion. In the second, price remains extended above the band for several weeks, maintaining persistent momentum. Both instances show similar values, but the outcomes were different. This illustrates that tools should not be interpreted in isolation. In this chart, RSI reaches overbought levels on two separate occasions. In the first case, the overextension is followed with a mean reversion. In the second, the same condition marks the beginning of a strong upward momentum move. Both events show similar indicator values, but the results were different. This reinforces that identical values can lead to different outcomes depending on the context and underlying structure. Low Volatile Trends Low volatility trends present recurring challenges and are worth consideration. These environments are characterized by price moving along structural boundaries with minimal retracement or mean reversion. The absence of counter-movement makes them difficult to fade, as directional drift may persist longer than expected. Attempts to fade these trends or build positions over time can introduce notable risk and limited potential, as reversion remains uncertain. A better approach is to wait for a sharp reversal or the formation of a new structure before considering any setup. The Risk in Fading Systems Fading can produce high win rates in range-bound or indecisive markets. Positions tend to be averaged down as price extends further, based on the expectation of a return to the mean. This approach can be effective over a series of trades, but its success depends on eventual reversion. The risk emerges in less frequent but severe scenarios where momentum persists and price continues to expand beyond expectations. These low-probability but high-impact outcomes tend to be overlooked, but when they occur the consequences can be severe without proper risk control. This simulation models a high win-rate fading strategy using an initial account size of $100,000. Each trade targets a gain of 0.5% of the account, or $500 based on the starting balance, and the win rate is set at 91.20%. These values are intended to simulate frequent small wins with the assumption that losses will be infrequent. Losses in this case are set to 5% of the account size, or $5,000, to represent situations where a trader continues to average into a losing position until a maximum loss threshold is reached. In real conditions, some traders may exceed this amount, either deliberately through increased exposure or due to loss of control. Across 50 simulation runs of 1,000 trades each, the average final balance was $118,109. The best case ended at $240,858, while the worst case dropped to $47,090. The average maximum drawdown was over 43%, and the worst drawdown reached nearly 70%. Half of all simulations finished below the starting balance. These results illustrate that while most trades may perform as expected, rare but oversized losses can and do occur. Despite a strong win rate, the long-term outcome becomes increasingly dependent on avoiding a handful of catastrophic trades. Strategies like this often appear stable because of their high success rate, which can create a false sense of security. This perceived consistency can lead to increased confidence, relaxed risk limits, or more aggressive sizing. However, the simulation makes clear that even a few failed trades are enough to reverse months of profits or endanger the entire account. Without strict risk control and structural awareness, the strategy becomes vulnerable to failure with little warning and limited opportunity to recover. Fading as a Valid Approach Fading strategies are not inherently wrong. In fact, a lot of profitable and well-developed systems are built on the concept of fading strength or weakness. The concepts explored, such as excursion from the mean, structural failure, or climactic behavior, can all serve as valid references. The problem arises when a move is assumed to have extended too far and must reverse, without clear reference and in opposition to strong momentum. This, combined with poor risk management, can have notable consequences. Therefore, it is essential to have a proper understanding of market structure and disciplined risk control. Trend Context and Deviation For traders who prefer to align with the prevailing trend, an overextension can be evaluated as a potential momentum move. In such cases, one approach is to wait for price to pause or pullback, then enter on continuation. This process can be repeated as long as the trend remains intact. A full reversal should not be considered until there is evidence of structural failure, such as a trend break followed by momentum developing in the opposite direction. Indicators that show overbought or oversold can be helpful in these events. Their purpose would not be to predict reversion, but to serve as a filter that helps avoid continuation entries when price is extended. This can reduce the risk of entries near potential exhaustion, which is a reasonable practice. This example shows a case where entries are withheld while price is above the upper envelope, which helps to not chase the move. This illustrates how overbought conditions can serve as a simple filter. Note, towards the end price continued even further, which is to be expected at times. Therefore the purpose is not to predict the reversion but to avoid entries at overextended levels without a pause or pullback.
AMEX:SPYEducation
by StockLeave
5
How to Trade with Volume Profile in TradingView Master Volume Profile using TradingView's powerful charting tools in this step-by-step tutorial from Optimus Futures. Volume Profile is an advanced charting indicator that helps traders identify key support and resistance levels, areas of price acceptance, and potential breakout zones by showing where trading activity is concentrated at different price levels. What You'll Learn: Understanding Volume Profile as a price-based volume tool that displays trading activity horizontally across price levels How the Point of Control (POC) represents the price level with the highest traded volume How the Value Area encompasses approximately 70% of all traded volume, bounded by the Value Area High (VAH) and Value Area Low (VAL) Why High Volume Nodes signal areas of price acceptance and potential support or resistance Why Low Volume Nodes signal areas of price rejection where markets tend to move quickly Recognizing when price trades above or below the previous session's Value Area for directional bias Why these levels aren't automatic buy or sell triggers, and how to confirm them with other tools like traditional support/resistance or trend analysis Identifying the "low volume node breakout," a setup where price accelerates through thin areas Spotting potential mean-reversion trades when price returns to the POC after an extended move How to add Volume Profile tools on TradingView via the drawing tools panel Understanding Fixed Range, Anchored, and Session Volume Profile options and when to use each Practical examples using futures charts Applying Volume Profile across daily, weekly, and intraday timeframes for market structure analysis and trade planning Learn more about futures trading with TradingView: optimusfutures.com Disclaimer There is a substantial risk of loss in futures trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Please trade only with risk capital. We are not responsible for any third-party links, comments, or content shared on TradingView. Any opinions, links, or messages posted by users on TradingView do not represent our views or recommendations. Please exercise your own judgment and due diligence when engaging with any external content or user commentary. This video represents the opinion of Optimus Futures and is intended for educational purposes only. Chart interpretations are presented solely to illustrate objective technical concepts and should not be viewed as predictive of future market behavior. In our opinion, charts are analytical tools — not forecasting instruments.
COMEX:SI1!Education
by Optimus Futures
4
NFLX: Massive Head-Shoulder-Formation!Hello There, welcome to my new analysis about the Netflix stock (NFLX). Recently, I spotted major underlying factors that will be highly determining for the whole upcoming price action. The stock already dumped heavily bearishly towards the downside, almost declining over $150 B in market cap. Such a major pullback is in most cases not followed by an immediate market recovery. Most of the time, such a determining price action is likely to move on forward in the direction it came from. When looking at the chart, we can see that Netflix is about to complete this massive head-and-shoulders formation. The left shoulder as well as the head of the formation have already been completed. Netflix has this main descending trendline within the whole structure, which serves as a major resistance. Especially, when Netflix moves into this area again, it will highly likely be the origin of massive bearishness and a pullback towards the downside. This implies that the right shoulder of the whole formation will complete once Netflix pulls back from the descending resistance line towards the downside. Once this happens and Netflix breaks down below the neckline of the head-and-shoulders formation, this will be the origin of the whole bearish continuation setup as it is marked within my chart. This setup will be the perfect entry zone for a potential entry on the short side. Once the whole formation has been completed, the target area of 60 will be activated. Especially when there is a breakdown with high bearish volatility, this will be the origin of a massive bearish continuation. It will be interesting to watch how Netflix completes this whole formation and continues to reach the target zones. Once the targets are reached, there could be a continuation towards the downside if bearish volatility is high enough. There are also many fundamental factors that make Netflix a bearish stock. One of them is that Netflix as a company faces major critique because of its $72B Warner Bros. deal. Members of Congress call it an "antitrust nightmare". They also define it as a bad business move. Such actions are likely to attract more and more bearish volume moving into the market. As massive bearish deal structures are likely to increase such dynamics. With this being said, it is great to consider the important trades upcoming. We will watch out for the main market evolutions. Thank you very much for watching!
NASDAQ:NFLX
by VincePrince
18
Where Is Oil Heading To ? - /CL Analysis 1) Technical Perspective: Support & Resistance ~$65 was a support zone earlier (2021–2024). In 2025–26, that $65 area now often acts as resistance. Prices have come down toward $55 2) Fundamental Drivers Behind the Downtrend Oil has been in a multi-year decline from the highs seen in 2022 after the Russia–Ukraine war spike. A combination of oversupply and weaker demand has kept price pressure on: • 2025 saw a large annual price drop due to persistent oversupply and slow demand. • EIA and IEA reports project global oil supply continuing to exceed demand into 2026. This structural oversupply (positive global inventories) pushes the short-term bias lower unless demand surprises on the upside. 3) Geopolitical Drivers — Including Venezuela Recent news confirms that geopolitics remain a key wild card: The U.S. has taken actions around Venezuelan oil assets and plans to export Venezuelan crude, which could add supply and weigh on prices, especially if revitalisation occurs. Oil prices did tick up short-term on inventory draws and Venezuela focus, but long-term gains from Venezuelan production may be limited because infrastructure will take years to rebuild. Geopolitical tensions can spike oil temporarily, but unless supply physically tightens, the structure stays bearish. 4) OPEC / OPEC+ Decisions OPEC’s recent behaviour has been a big driver: In 2025, OPEC+ unwound production cuts, which contributed to oversupply and lower prices. For 2026: The OPEC+ view has shifted toward equilibrium, but global supply growth still challenges prices. If OPEC+ cuts output further or extends cuts, prices could find stronger support around current levels ($55–$65). If OPEC+ maintains or increases production while demand stays soft, that supports a drop toward $45–$50. So OPEC policy is one of the most important catalysts, it fundamentally shifts supply. 5) Demand Risks & Macro Conditions Global demand remains under pressure: Chinese economic weakness and slower global growth reduce oil demand. And EIA forecasts oversupply growth in 2026. Lower demand growth + abundant supply = structural downside risk. 6) Link to US Dollar, Inflation & Rates Higher real rates / stronger USD → oil tends to weaken: Oil is USD-denominated. A stronger dollar makes oil more expensive for holders of other currencies. Tight monetary policy (higher rates) can slow economic growth and demand for oil. Lower real rates / weaker USD → oil tends to strengthen: Cheaper USD can support crude prices if demand fundamentals improve. Right now, with US economic strength and mixed inflation data elsewhere, it’s not certain the Fed will aggressively cut. If inflation re-accelerates and the Fed resists rate cuts or even raises, that could strengthen the USD and pressure oil lower. However, if the Fed eases later, weaker real rates could help commodities broadly, but oil’s supply/demand story still matters more. Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any securities. Asset prices, valuations, and performance metrics are subject to change and may be outdated. Always conduct your own due diligence and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. The information presented may contain inaccuracies and should not be solely relied upon for financial decisions. I am not a licensed financial advisor or professional trader. I am not personally liable for your own losses; this is not financial advice.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by bossout10
17
Breakout Candles Decoded a Complete AnatomyHello traders, This is mine first educational idea of 2026, and I wanted to start the year by sharing a concept that looks simple on charts but is deeply misunderstood in real trading and why every breakout is meant to be chased some are meant to be trusted, some avoided, and some waited upon and why Some Breakouts Fly and others fail? Let's decode that! So most traders focus on whether a breakout happened. Professional traders focus on how the breakout happened ? In this publication we’ll break down three very common breakout candle behaviors near resistance, what they actually indicate, and how you can align your entries with probability instead of emotion. First, a Quick Truth About Breakouts-: A horizontal resistance level is not broken by price alone. It is broken by acceptance. Acceptance means? * Price spends time above the level * Market participants agree on higher value * Pullbacks hold above the level With that in mind, let’s decode the candles! Type 1: The Ideal / Balanced Breakout Candle Structure-: Breaks above resistance Candle body is clean and balanced Close is comfortably above the level No extreme extension What it tells us? This is a sign of healthy participation, not panic buying. Buyers are stepping in gradually, allowing price to build acceptance above resistance. High probability outcome-: Continuation without deep pullback Why this works? Late sellers get trapped, No urgency from buyers (no FOMO), Institutions are comfortable holding above the level and This is the breakout most traders should look to trade. Type 2: Weak Breakout / Overlapping Candle (Fakeout Zone) Structure: Price crosses resistance but struggles Candle overlaps the level heavily Wicks on both sides Close is near the level, not above it What it tells us? This shows indecision and lack of acceptance and The market tested higher prices but failed to attract enough commitment. High probability outcome-: False breakout (fakeout) Range continuation or reversal Why this fails? Buyers lack conviction, Sellers are still active at resistance, Breakout traders get trapped quickly and The best trade here is often NO trade here. Type 3: Powerful Impulsive Breakout Candle (Retest Candidate) Structure: Large, wide-range candle Strong momentum through resistance Little to no overlap with the level Often accompanied by volume expansion What it tells us? This is a momentum breakout, driven by urgency. Stops get triggered, breakout traders pile in, and price moves fast and the common mistake most traders chase this candle. High probability outcome-: Pullback / retest of the breakout level Re-accumulation before continuation Why retests happen? Early buyers book partial profits, Late buyers get trapped, Smart money looks for cheaper re-entry and The best trade is usually on the retest, not the breakout candle itself. The Key Insight (Most Important Part) The strongest-looking breakout candle is not always the best entry. Moderate, well-accepted breakouts- smooth continuation Weak breakouts- fakeouts Very strong breakouts- retests first Understanding this single idea can: Reduce FOMO trades Improve entry timing Improve risk–reward dramatically When Trade? acceptance breakouts immediately. When Avoid? overlapping breakouts. When Wait for? retest after impulsive breakouts. Final Thoughts-:Charts speak a language, Candles are words and structure is the grammar. Once you stop chasing every breakout and start reading the story behind the candle, your trading automatically becomes calmer, cleaner, and more consistent. Adding some chart examples mates, hope this may help to understand the shared concept more better-: Type One Breakout: Type Two Breakout: Type Three Breakout: Hope this idea added value to your trading. Wishing you all clarity, discipline, and consistency in the markets ahead. Happy Trading Regards- Amit.
NASDAQ:TSLAEducation
by AMIT-RAJAN
17
Dollar Off to Weak Start After Worst Year Since 2017. Now What?The US dollar rang in 2026 without much enthusiasm. No fireworks. No flex. Just a quiet shuffle out of the gate that felt eerily familiar to anyone who shoved cash in FX markets last year. After logging its worst annual performance since 2017, the greenback has started the new year on the back foot — and traders are wondering whether this is merely a breather or the beginning of something more structural. If currencies had personalities, the dollar currently looks like it stayed up too late in 2025 and is still reaching for its first coffee. After all, the US currency was the worst performer of all major currency indices last year, according to the currency index performance table . 💵 The Euro Holds the Line at $1.17 Front and center in the dollar’s early-2026 wobble is the euro, which has done a solid job containing the greenback’s attempts to regain swagger. The FX:EURUSD briefly dipped toward $1.1670, only to bounce smartly after running into two major moving averages — the kind of technical speed bump that gets traders’ attention. The result? The euro stabilized near $1.17, flat on the year and comfortably above levels that once seemed ambitious. 📉 A Brutal Year in the Rearview Mirror Let’s rewind. In 2025, the dollar index TVC:DXY fell roughly 10% against a basket of major currencies, its steepest drop in nearly a decade. The early damage came fast and loud, triggered by President Donald Trump’s aggressive tariff campaign back in April, which rattled global markets and reignited concerns about US growth and trade stability. At one point, the dollar was lower by 15%, before clawing back some ground. But the recovery never quite stuck. What really kept the pressure on was the Federal Reserve’s pivot back to rate cuts in September, which undermined one of the dollar’s most reliable supports: yield advantage. 🏦 Rate Cuts Change the FX Equation Currencies love interest rate differentials. They’re boring, mathematical, and extremely powerful. As the Fed moved toward easing — and signaled more to come — that differential began to shrink. The market is now pricing in two to three quarter-point cuts by the end of 2026, a meaningful shift for a currency that spent years riding the “higher for longer” narrative. Across the water, the picture looks different. ECB President Christine Lagarde recently reminded markets that “all options should remain on the table,” even as the central bank held rates steady and raised growth and inflation forecasts. TLDR: Europe isn’t in a rush (or under pressure) to cut. 📈 Why Europe (and the UK) Are Benefiting The euro was the biggest gainer among major currencies in 2025, rising nearly 14% to levels last seen in 2021. Wall Street banks now expect it to climb further — toward $1.20 by the end of 2026. Sterling isn’t far behind. Analysts see the FX:GBPUSD rising from around $1.33 to $1.36, helped by relatively sticky inflation and fewer expectations for aggressive easing from the Bank of England. 👔 Politics Enter the FX Chat Another wildcard looms over 2026: the next Fed chair. Markets are keenly aware that President Trump’s eventual pick to succeed Jay Powell could influence the dollar’s trajectory. If investors believe the next chair will be more receptive to White House pressure for deeper rate cuts, the greenback could face additional headwinds. Powell’s term ends in May, FYI. 🤖 Dollar Bulls Still Have a Case What about the bull case? Dollar bulls’ argument rests on one powerful theme: AI-driven growth. The US economy continues to benefit from massive investment in artificial intelligence, data centers, and advanced manufacturing — sectors where America remains the global leader. If that growth keeps the US economy outperforming Europe, the Fed may find it harder to cut aggressively, putting a floor under the dollar. In other words, the greenback’s obituary may be a bit premature. 🧭 So What Now? Anyway, the dollar enters 2026 without its usual moat — pressured by rate expectations, policy divergence, and lingering doubts about its haven status, especially in the wake of gold OANDA:XAUUSD shattering records . That doesn’t mean a straight-line decline. FX markets rarely move that neatly. But it does suggest that rallies may be sold rather than chased, and that traders are increasingly comfortable exploring alternatives. Off to you : Where do you see the dollar heading next? Ready to buy high and sell low, or what? Share your views in the comments!
TVC:DXY
by TradingView
12