About meKon How started as a floor trader in 1995. He specialises in the study of quantamental and technical analysis, risk management, investor profiling, behavioural science or market psychology in forensic price behaviour to identify changing macrotrends.
higher US rates, the US dollar should be trading higher. But inversely, the US dollar became weaker since September last year.
In today’s tutorial, we will discuss what is the cause of a weaker US dollar and the future of the US dollar; despite US interest rates could go higher than expected.
• US Treasury Bond futures
Minimum fluctuation: 1/32...
Core CPI vs CPI - Some say core CPI is a better benchmark compare to CPI data to track inflation.
Knowing which way CPI inflation is going, it will sharpen our investment decision?
If CPI inflation is still trending up, majority of stocks will be under pressure. However, there will be other sectors will benefit from a rising inflation.
In this tutorial, we will...
The collapse of UK bonds has caused Liz Truss to leave office, making her the shortest-serving prime minister in the UK.
With the downgrade of US bonds from AAA to AA+, what will their fate be? Even though the 30-year bonds' current coupon or yield is above 4%, we are going to study the future trend of US bonds in 2023 and beyond.
Is a crash in US savings bonds...
In this video, we are studying the time lag between commodities, inflation data, and central bank decisions.
3 types of crude oil for trading:
• Crude Oil Futures
0.01 per barrel = $10.00
• E-mini Crude Oil Futures
0.025 per barrel = $12.50
• Micro WTI Crude Oil
0.01 per barrel = $1.00
• What presented here is...
Throughout the entirety of last year, it was a period marked by bearishness, and I believe that many of us have forgotten about it. However, at the beginning of 2023, the market suddenly shifted to a bullish trend.
There are three reasons attributed to the bullish trend during the first and second quarters:
1) The onset of an AI rush.
2) The apparent taming of...
US exports have reached its record low, even lower than during the Covid period. What is happening and how will this impact the GDP subsequently and also the stock markets?
Export number is the leading indicator of GDP, and GDP is the leading indicator of the stock market.
GDP = C + I + G + (X-M)
C = Consumer spending
I = Investment
G = Government spending
This video recording, a brief history of the China Yuan through these 5 stages.
My main aim is to derive the fair value of the present Yuan and into the future.
Reference for trading in CME USD/Offshore RMB (CNH) Futures
0.0001 per USD increment = 10 CNH
• What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult...
1. What will happen to the US bonds themselves?
2. What will be the impact on the US dollar and other currencies?
3. How will inflation be affected?
We will also discuss the relationship between the US Bond, US Dollar and all the other Currencies.
Reference for trading in currencies:
CME Euro FX Futures & Options
Today, we are going to study how a market bubble is like before it crashes. We saw this pattern in the dot-com bubble, as well as in the 08-housing bubble.
The recent setup suggests that we might be observing a bubble that has already popped.
There are three stages in recognizing a resolution of a market bubble. Meaning has a market bubble been resolved or if...
AI investment – A boom or hype?
Money is thrown at companies that have neither earnings nor an innovative product nor the right expertise. For example, French startup Mistral AI didn’t have a working product when it raised €105 million ($118 million) in one of Europe’s largest-ever seed rounds last month. Some investors and people in the industry are worried the...
The last 50 years, we have seen gold, commodities, and inflation numbers move in cycles and in tandem together.
Though gold has picked up in recent years, make no mistake, the cycle between them is still intact.
If gold is leading the way, the rest should catch up subsequently.
Gold will likely remain high because of the easy money policy over the decades or...
In this video analysis, I will walk you through 3 keys:
1. My observation on these cycles
2. The super charge in the Gold, how that affect the commodities subsequently?
3. How about inflation? Will it settle at 3%?
Some reference for traders:
Chicago SRW Wheat Futures & Options – Its Minimum Fluctuation
1/4 of one cent (0.0025) per bushel = $12.50 / ZW
Out of the approximately 4,000 banks in the United States, it seems like JP Morgan is the only bank from this top 4 banks we are seeing here that has climbed back up from the March banking crisis. The rest are still well below their March levels. What about the other thousands of banks?
Is inflation fear over?
We observed an improvement in the CPI numbers,...
We saw an improvement in the CPI numbers at 3%, but the PCE number is what Fed is concerned with as it is still lingering around its high point.
Out of the approximately 4,000 banks in the United States, it seems like JP Morgan, among these top 7 banks we are seeing here, is the only bank that has climbed back up from the March banking crisis. The rest are still...
As projected at the beginning of the year, the bull market began after the third week of 2023, shortly after crossing above the secondary downtrend line. It appears that this bull market may be nearing its end, and there is a possibility that it will enter into a range for the remainder of the year.
Here is a hypothetical scenario based on the current data and...
To understand “Qantamental” investment approach, we first have to understand the quant and qualitative approach:
• Quantitative approaches or Quant, often employed by quants, have the advantage of being data-driven and objective. They can process large amounts of information quickly, identify patterns, and execute trades with precision. Quantitative models can...
Both technical and fundamental aspects align in this view:
The US markets bull may be ending soon and range have just begun.
Watch video for its technical reason.
For its fundamental -
There are 2 key areas of concern from Jerome Powell and he has been consistent with his statement in almost all the meetings:
1. Inflation -
“Inflation remains well above...
First, when we analyze a chart or a market, we always study its left side. The left side represents the history of events, market developments, and human behaviors such as greed, fear, and confidence. It also includes insider trading based on those events and developments. Therefore, it is important to analyze as far back as possible. In my chart, I can see all...