Total Public Debt multiplied by increasing Fed Fund Rates equals trouble!
#Recession along side rocketing initial #jobless claims right around the corner.
#Gold and #Silver also have a high probability of rocketing.
Spoiler alert, there is a lot.
Inspired by a fellow trader, link to his idea. He is the reason I took the stock market seriously.
An easy-to-explain chart.
As NoOneWhoIsSomeone explained better, FEDFUNDS increases when an economy is strong. Therefore it can be a modificator for prices. The FED increases the rate when it smells money, and money smells when...
Fed saying the peak rate 5% next year. imo this news -had- to accompany a 50bp hike or apes would have prematurely partied. I think the 4000% climb up to now was worse.
They want to raise as much across 2023 as they rose in November 2022 alone. Of course there are layers of complexity here, but looking at the topical move here, I don't think its thats bad and...
Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
I am not a fundamental expert (nor an economist) but I found FEDFUNDS chart really interesting!
I never thought that basic technical analysis tools can also be applied to such economic instruments!
As per my last analysis (attached on the chart) FEDFUNDS traded higher and...
When we see the Fed funds rate "Green" Surpass both the 2 year and 10 year yield we can expect to see a pause or cutting - when we see the the Fed funds rate being lowered is when the next market downturn happens
Another simple, without noise chart: Effective Federal Funds Rate (blue) and the S&P 500 (dark yellow).
Since March, with a macro perspective, almost all my 'crash' ideas are showing that the probability of a major crash is in place; the truth be told, with a boring pattern that keeps repeating itself. I don't know if this time will be different, what I know is...
This chart is essentially proxy for the acceleration rate of interest expense for the US government, and has been a reliable indicator of fed pivot for 30+ years as the fed has ensured the US doesn't enter a debt death spiral.
To keep this line 'inbounds' they need the middle of the curve to fall ~75bp between now and the 24th
Or maybe they'll allow a brief...
The Federal reserve stepped in to control inflation by increasing interest rates.
It looks like the decades long trend channel has been broken upwards.
Fed reserve is definitely going above parameters, I bet even they didnt expect to go above.
Im guessing deflation is coming followed by stagnation, I hope i'm wrong.
CPI the Core inflation, which is the focus of most traders, rose 0.6 percent in August, a larger increase than in July.
Although the US inflation decreased in August; But it was still higher than economists had expected, signaling that the US Federal Reserve will remain aggressive in raising interest rates.
Also Eight days before the new Federal Reserve...
On the chart, is the Federal Funds rate about to intersect
the yield of the 2 year Treasury Bills ?
If so , will this mark the technical point at which the Federal
Board will loosen things up in the context of the big picture
including jobs, core inflation, et cetera.
Will the fed lighten up and make any hike only 25 / 50 points ?
Has the market already...