Warsh vs Powell: who will dominate the Fed?Jerome Powell steps down as Chairman of the Federal Reserve of the United States on Friday, May 15, and Kevin Warsh becomes the new Chair of the Fed. However, Jerome Powell is expected to remain a member of the FOMC for some time, as a governor. Powell will therefore retain a vote in upcoming moneta
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Fed: no rate cuts before 2027?!Military operations in the Middle East since Saturday, February 28 have disrupted monetary policy expectations, and the longer they last, the stronger their impact will be on forward-looking monetary policy.
Yet at the end of February, the outlook was rather positive. US inflation had just fallen t
Rick Rieder: the next “shadow Fed Chair”?Who will be the next “shadow Fed Chair” while Jerome Powell prepares to leave his position next May? This question is central to the outlook for U.S. Federal Reserve monetary policy and to the trends in equities, bonds, and the U.S. dollar in the first half of 2026.
The name of the next Fed Chair i
Federal Reserve (Fed) – December 10 Meeting: Shakeout Ahead?The last Fed policy meeting of 2025 takes place this Wednesday, December 10, and market expectations are high. While a cut to the federal funds rate is widely anticipated, the true stakes go far beyond this already-priced move. What will really matter are the signals for 2026: the rate trajectory, u
Kevin Hassett, the next Fed Chair?President Trump is expected to appoint the next Chair of the Federal Reserve at the beginning of 2026 (for a term starting after Powell’s departure in May 2026). Based on current probabilities, Kevin Hassett appears to be the frontrunner to succeed Jerome Powell at the head of the FOMC. Hassett has
7 votes for a rate cut on December 10?!As we approach the last monetary policy meeting of the year, scheduled for Wednesday, December 10, uncertainty remains high. The CME FedWatch tool now suggests a dominant probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut, but this probability can shift significantly from one day to the next depending on the
FED FUNDS Rate Inflation Adjusted Remains TightFED FUNDS Rate Inflation Adjusted for core inflation remains in the tightening area. As inflation rises over the next few months, thanks to Trump's liberating all Americans with higher taxes and less discretionary income to spend.
I expect this chart to drop as inflation rises and Fed holds rates s
Upcoming End of the Fed’s Quantitative Tightening?This Wednesday, October 29, 2025, could mark a decisive turning point for U.S. monetary policy and, by extension, for global markets.
All eyes are on the Federal Reserve (Fed), which is expected to announce a cut to its main interest rate.
But investors are paying even closer attention to another ke
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