Many interpreted from the latest FOMC meeting that the Fed is going to have three rate cuts this year, but Jerome Powell did not say that.
Let me quote directly from his transcript:
“If the economy evolves as projected, the median participant projects that the appropriate level of the federal funds rate will be 4.6 percent at the end of this year”
And he...
Hello,
Looks like Federal fund rates are going to be in uptrend (Double Bottom + Bullish Divergence in RSI), in the past from 1958 to somewhere around till 1980 SPX was in sideways move or economic decline.
Can we see something similar kind of movement in SPX?
IMO yes.
So, will Bitcoin follow SPX?
IMO Bitcoin also moves in sideways, or Bitcoin is risk on...
The 2-year rate consistently anticipates the Fed rate. By examining the correlation coefficient, one can even estimate the breakdown of that correlation, which occurs with the introduction of a new macro narrative that displaces the previous one.
Happy October, Since November 2021 when I first spoke of issues with the Fed beginning to taper the markets we have since had a wild world of volatility. That world is about to get alot worse. Good luck, Your Welcome.
Now in the last videos, i said
i was not going to teach you
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Risk management
but I have changed my mind
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in this video, i break down Risk management using
US Economy as an example take notes
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Watch this video now before you trade
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Disclaimer:
This is not financial advice
do your own research before you trade
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Do not buy or sell anything
i recommend to...
US inflation data in July 2023 provided mixed signals. While Consumer Price Index (CPI) is moving in the right direction, producer price inflation suggest pipeline pressures are picking up. Core CPI, which excludes often-volatile food and energy costs, rose only 0.2% for a second month in a row . However, US producer prices picked up in July, owing to increases in...
The federal funds rate has never gone up this high and this steep before in history. the worse the conditions become apparent the faster they cut rates. with delayed effects of high funds rate just now showing themselves and markets/ credit contracting. Bonds are due for a guaranteed high rise that can be exited as soon as funds rate hits back to zero. I know...
The unemployment rate and the federal funds effective rate are two important economic indicators that provide insights into the health of an economy, but they represent different aspects of economic activity.
Unemployment Rate:
The unemployment rate is a measure of the percentage of the labor force that is unemployed and actively seeking employment. It is a...
Look how strong the correlation is between 2y/10y spread and interest rates in the last two decades. Once it starts peaking watch it roll over slowly, a pause, usually indicates the last stages.
This week we learnt how vital Central Bank communication is to global financial markets. The trio of central banks – The Federal Reserve (Fed), European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of Japan (BOJ) held their respective meetings. Each of the central banks tried to convey how they will navigate monetary policy amidst a slowing economy and avoid a hard landing.
...
Introduction
The Federal Reserve System, often referred to as "the Fed," was established in 1913 in response to a series of banking panics. As the central banking institution of the United States, it plays a crucial role in maintaining the stability and integrity of the nation's monetary and financial systems. This essay explores the ten fundamental objectives...
Despite the banking industry turmoil, central banks continued to raise rates last week. This marked moves from the European Central Bank (ECB) by 50Bps, Federal Reserve (Fed) by 25Bps, Bank of England by 25Bps, Swiss National Bank by 50Bps, Norway by 25Bps, the Philippines by 25Bps, and Taiwan by 12.5Bps. Central banks appear determined to show they have the tools...
