mintdotfinance

mintdotfinance

With inflation finally cooling and the Fed signaling rate cuts, it seems relief is on the horizon—until you look at the job market. As recession risks grow and Treasury yields falter, a steepening yield curve presents a compelling opportunity. Positioning in the yield curve ahead of the FOMC meeting offers a more measured way to navigate the uncertainty. ...

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When prices diverge, like shadows in the night, spread trading strategies unfold in plain sight. WTI Crude Oil (“US Crude”) and Henry Hub Natural Gas (“US Nat Gas”) Futures have diverged recently. US Crude prices continued sliding amid easing supply concerns and weak demand from the US and China. Meanwhile, US Nat Gas prices rose steadily on rising demand,...

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You cannot predict the future, but you can prepare for it. This is even more true for crude oil prices. Forces driving and pulling back oil prices are in full play in parallel at the same time. Oil prices remain at the risk to both the upside and the downside concurrently. Take this week as an example. WTI prices started with a rally extending a three-day...

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NVIDIA will announce its Q2 2025 results on 28th August. The semiconductor giant is expected to deliver USD 28.6 billion in revenues. Even a mild shortfall can send its stock prices tanking. The firm is slated to scale even greater heights on continued AI hardware demand & explosion in data centres. ANALYSTS REMAIN BULLISH NVIDIA enjoys buy rating with...

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Last week, U.S. housing starts, a key economic measure of new residential construction, dropped to their lowest level since 2020, with single-family housing starts hitting a 16-month low. Meanwhile, overall housing inventory has climbed to its highest point since 2020, and new housing inventory has reached levels not seen since 2008. Despite a moderating mortgage...

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Markets have rebounded sharply after last week's fear-driven decline. Despite this, rate cuts are still anticipated in the upcoming FOMC meetings. Changes in monetary policy often benefit some sectors over others, providing investors a chance to adjust their portfolio allocations accordingly. This paper delves into a comparative analysis of sectors around...

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Last week was pandemonium for US Equities, Japanese Equities, Foreign Exchange markets, Cryptocurrency markets, and Bond markets. Yet, for those positioned for the normalization of the yield curve, results are apparent as the curve has officially normalized into positive territory with a sharp recovery on Friday which continued into Monday. The non-farm payroll...

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The SEC approved the listing of nine spot ETH ETFs on 23/July. The launch of these ETFs was expected to drive capital flows with spot buying. But it didn’t. ETH prices plunged by 9% over the following two days. Crucially, the decline in the ETH/BTC ratio was a similar 9% as BTC remained resilient. Following what appears to be a sell-the-news event, the outlook...

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The (in)famous Yield Curve remains inverted. In recent past, spreads normalized only to revert to inversion as rate cut expectations got pushed out. This time though, is different. Recent CPI print has significantly altered market sentiment. The likelihood of an initial rate cut at the September FOMC meeting now exceeds 90%. Consequently, the yield curve is...

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US Presidential Elections and US Equities are a match made in heaven. History shows that market swings more up than down. This year, prepare for a wild ride full of twists. Sadly, former President Donald Trump was shot at a rally over the weekend. He survived and is safe. Investors are expected to shift into haven assets. Gold could test all-time highs. The...

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Just because something is cheap does not mean it is a good buy, and just because something is expensive does not mean it is a sound investment. This investment adage applies to Bitcoin (“BTC”) ever more so than now. Bitcoin prices dropped 11% over the past week, triggered by substantial BTC sales by the German government. Concerns loom about the forthcoming Mt....

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Navigating frothiness in US equities requires both caution and tact. With the S&P 500 nearing its all-time high amid flashing recession signals, investors must be vigilant with volatility during upcoming earnings season, driven by outsized expectations. This paper explores the persistent recession indicators and forces at play during upcoming earnings. The paper...

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Copper is known as the electrifying metal. Copper's warm glow and durable spirit, copper wires the heart of many a machine. This reddish rarity has been super bullish in the recent past but less so now. That doesn't make it less investable. Just that nuanced investing approach is called for. Outlook for copper has become mixed once more, with near term demand...

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Momentum trading, a strategy as old as the markets themselves, has found fertile ground in the sprawling fields of agricultural commodities. As the seasons change, so do the prices of wheat, corn, soybeans, and other staples, tracing patterns as predictable as the migration of birds or the spring blossom. This paper delves into these seasonal trends,...

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As the tides of economic fortune ebb and flow, a spectre of recession looms over the horizon, whispering in the rustling of Treasury yields and the shifting sands of macroeconomic indicators. Recent economic data has painted a complex tableau of financial uncertainty. From declining PMI figures to a palpable deceleration in GDP growth, the economic forecast has...

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SEC's unexpected nod for Ethereum Spot ETFs (“ETH ETFs”) through the approval of 19b-4 forms has ignited a fresh wave of excitement in crypto markets. This paper delves into the impact on ETH/BTC Ratio fuelled by this development. The ratio has been a laggard throughout the current bull run. ETHER ETF ADVANCES TOWARDS APPROVAL On 23rd May, the SEC...

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OPEC is a unique organization whose decisions impact national sovereignty, energy security, and most directly on crude oil prices. OPEC’s decisions have material influence on crude oil prices. All eyes on OPEC+ ministerial meeting taking place virtually now on June 2 (instead of an in-person meeting on June 1 as planned previously). OPEC is widely expected to...

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Wheat plays a critical role in global agriculture and trade. Extreme weather has turned wheat prices bullish, rising more than 22% in a month after having languished for more than two years. After reaching their lowest level in more than three years in March 2024, prices have rebounded strongly. Wheat rally is driven by extreme weather events in multiple places...