JimHuangChicago

JimHuangChicago

CME: E-Mini S&P 500 Options ( CME_MINI:ES1! ) On March 24th, I published a trade idea, “Buckle Your Seatbelt for a Market Correction”, where I suggested that the US stock market was due for a major correction. Buying a Put contract on CME E-Mini S&P 500 Futures would be a trade to express this market view. How is this trade panning out? • On March 24th, the...

JimHuangChicago

CME: E-Mini S&P 500 Options ( CME_MINI:ES1! ) Last week, investors cheered as the Fed Chair reinforced that interest rate cuts are coming despite hot inflation readings in the last two months. For the full week, the Dow was up by nearly 2% in its best week since December 2023. The S&P was higher by 2.3% and the Nasdaq jumped 2.9%. The three major US stock indexes...

JimHuangChicago

CME: Micro BTC Futures ( CME:MBT1! ), Micro ETH Futures ( CME:MET1! ) This Monday, bitcoin jumped above $49,000 for the first time in a year, and quickly extended its gains and broke through the $50,000 level. By Wednesday, bitcoin shot up again, pushing above $52,000 in morning session. In the past few months, the benchmark cryptocurrency has experienced a...

JimHuangChicago

NYMEX: Micro Crude Oil ( NYMEX:MCL1! ) The price of a commodity is determined by its supply and demand. But in the case of crude oil, which is the lifeblood of the global economy, geopolitical risk carries a bigger impact. Examples in present time: In February 2022, the Russia-Ukraine conflict sent crude oil up 72% to $124 a barrel. In October 2023, the...

JimHuangChicago

CBOT: Wheat ( CBOT:ZW1! ) In stark contrast to the rising stock market, most agricultural commodities have lost ground in 2023. In the Grain & Oilseeds market, CBOT Soybean (ZS) finished the year at $12.73 per bushel, down 14.7% year-on-year. CBOT Corn (ZC) closed at $4.63/bushel, down 30.8% YOY. CBOT Wheat (ZW) settled at $5.93/bushel, down 24.5%. In the...

JimHuangChicago

CME: Micro BTC Futures ( CME:MBT1! ), Micro ETH Futures ( CME:MET1! ) Last Wednesday, the U.S. Security Exchange Commission (SEC) approved the listing of bitcoin exchange traded funds (ETFs) for the first time. This is a huge victory for the world's largest cryptocurrency and a game-changer for the broader crypto industry. Immediately after the landslide...

JimHuangChicago

CBOT: Micro 2-Year Yield ( CBOT_MINI:2YY1! ), Micro 10-Year Yield ( CBOT_MINI:10Y1! ) and Micro 30-Year Yield ( CBOT_MINI:30Y1! ) The latest US jobs report showed that employers added 216,000 jobs for December while the unemployment rate held at 3.7%, reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). That compared with respective market estimates of 170,000 and...

JimHuangChicago

CME: E-Mini S&P ( CME_MINI:ES1! ), E-Mini Nasdaq ( CME_MINI:NQ1! ) Stock investors around the world had a banner year in 2023. Of the ten major stock market indexes I monitor, eight delivered solid 1-year returns. • North America: S&P 500, +23.9%; Nasdaq Composite, +53.6%; • South America: Bovespa (Brazil), +22.3%; • Europe: FTSE (UK), +3.0%; Stoxx (Germany),...

JimHuangChicago

COMEX: Micro Gold ( COMEX_MINI:MGC1! ), Copper ( COMEX:HG1! ), Aluminum ( COMEX:ALI1! ) 2023 is coming to an end. What are some of the biggest headlines of the year? • China’s ending of Zero-Covid gave hope to global economic recovery and an increase in commodities demand, but it was short-lived; • U.S. regional bank crisis triggered a flight to safety; • U.S....

JimHuangChicago

CBOT: Micro 10-Year Yield Futures ( CBOT_MINI:10Y1! ) Maritime transport is the backbone of international trade and the global economy. Over 80% of the global trade volume in goods is carried by sea, according to the UN. Therefore, whenever a major trade route is blocked, shipping time would be lengthened, which pushes up freight cost, and ultimately, the prices...

JimHuangChicago

CME: Lean Hog ( CME:HE1! ) Throughout 2023, U.S. grocery shoppers find that beef prices rise rapidly. According to the National Daily Cattle and Beef report, published by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), Choice Beef averaged $290 per cwt (100 pounds) on December 8th. This represents a 16% increase year-over-year and is 21% above the 5-year average. In...

JimHuangChicago

COMEX: Gold Options ( COMEX:GC1! ) Gold prices rallied to an all-time high on Friday. Spot gold climbed 1.6% to $2,069 per ounce, up 3.4% for the week. Gold price rose to $2,075 mid-session to beat the previous record of $2,072 reached in 2020. U.S. gold futures also broke new ground. The February 2024 contract of COMEX gold futures settled at a record high of...

JimHuangChicago

CME: E-Mini S&P 500 Options ( CME_MINI:ES1! ), E-Mini Nasdaq 100 Options ( CME_MINI:NQ1! ) Initial data from the biggest U.S. shopping day sends a mixed signal. • E-commerce sales on Friday increased by 8.5% year-over-year, while in-store sales grew by just 1.1%, according to MasterCard Spendingpulse. The aggregate Black Friday retail sales rose 2.5%, excluding...

JimHuangChicago

CME: S&P Consumer Staples Select Sector Index Futures ( CME_MINI:XAP1! ) Last week, new government data showed further evidence of declining U.S. inflation rates. • On November 14th, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was unchanged in October, down from 0.6% in August and 0.4% in September. The headline CPI is now...

JimHuangChicago

CBOT: Three-MO SOFR Futures ( CME:SR31! ) Breaking News: The US Treasury bonds are risk-free No Longer ! Last Friday, top credit ratings agency Moody's lowered its credit outlook on the U.S. to "negative" from "stable", citing large fiscal deficits and a decline in debt affordability. It has so far maintained the AAA credit rating for U.S. sovereign...

JimHuangChicago

CME: E-Mini S&P 500 Options ( CME_MINI:ES1! ) Last Wednesday, investors cheered as the Fed kept interest rates unchanged for the second time in a row. On Friday, a soft jobs report backed up market expectations that the rate-hiking campaign is over. For the full week, the Dow was up by 5.07% in its best week since October 2022. The S&P was higher by 5.85% and the...

JimHuangChicago

CME: Micro ETH Futures ( CME:MET1! ), Micro BTC Futures ( CME:MBT1! ) On March 29th, I published this trade idea: “Crypto Staged a Strong Comeback in Q1.” At the time, bitcoin was quoted $28,348, up $11,800 or +71.3% year-to-date. The main driver was flight-to-safety when a series of US bank failures shocked the financial markets. On July 17th, I published a...

JimHuangChicago

CME: Micro S&P 500 ( CME_MINI:MES1! ), CBOT: Micro Dow Jones ( CBOT_MINI:MYM1! ) In the last two stories, I discussed how the prices of crude oil, a strategic energy commodity, and gold, a safe-haven asset, could soar at wartime. Extended reading: “Would the Middle East Conflict Push Gold and Oil Prices Higher?” Extended reading: “MCO: Options Strategy to...