African swine flu is a big problem within china, I expect purchases from mainlain china to continue, however trade influences may change the dynamics of the pace as china seeks out an alternative sources.
in combination with china trade, african swine, weather is affecting the overall strenght of the pork market during grilling season.
i see more pain ahead. it's...
Lean Hogs are moving by strong seasonality - after grilling season ends (usually at June to August) the price usually goes sharply down. After that big move, price usually goes up until end of grilling season. Price is also at historical strong ressistence + COT report is also extremely bullish ( it shows us positions of biggest players in the market).
Lean Hogs (HE1!) are on a 1D Channel Up (MACD = 2.610, Highs/Lows = 4.5150, B/BP = 9.0280) but highly overbought (RSI = 72.148, STOCHRSI = 96.420) hence in need of a technically pull back. Based on the recurring patterns this will come in the form of a consolidation/ slow down and not a standard pull back. The next Higher High and TP is projected at 70.000.
- Factoring in the quote below, I think a Retracement of the move we saw, is in order.
- Also, given the historic price action a Retracement does seem likely.
Great little quote from some Forbes article:
"According to a United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) report, feeding China’s steadily increasing livestock population is a growing challenge. It...
Waiting for the peak for a while - although the pork associations and sponsored publications are claiming that we'll have a long rally - I don't believe that.
For the rest of the year should concentrate on shorts.