AlexanderGotay

PRO
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Joined AlexanderGotay
Markets Allocation
74 % stocks 14 % commodities 5 % forex 7 % other
Top Mentioned Symbols
QQQ 4% | 4 XLE 3% | 3 KRE 3% | 3 SPY 3% | 3
OIH: 67% Probability trade on OIH (Put Ratio+Call)
45 0 3
OIH, D
67% Probability trade on OIH (Put Ratio+Call)

With over 20% move to the upside in the last 29 days, I think is time for OIH to have some sort of pullback or correction. The last 5 candles couldn't close outside of the Upper Bollinger Band, so it looks like is losing momentum and most likely retrace at least to the midline. Implied Volatility Rank is at 54 so I sold the 28/27 Put Ratio Spread (2 Short Puts ...

EWW: 61% Probability on EWW (Strangle)
74 0 6
EWW, D
61% Probability on EWW (Strangle)

Yesterday We got a close above the 200 Moving average and EWW is right inside the Volume area, and right at the Point of control. So I expect two-way action between buyers and sellers, giving me a chance to make a neutral trade. With EWW IV Rank at 57, I sold the 54/50 Strangle (30 Delta) that expires in February, to take advantage of the high ...

AXP: How to Buy stocks using Options (Short Put)
122 2 7
AXP, D
How to Buy stocks using Options (Short Put)

If an investor wants to buy stocks, a better way to do it is Selling Put options. What are Put options? A put option is an option contract giving the owner the right, but not the obligation, to sell a specified amount of an underlying security at a specified price (called Strike Price) within a specified time (called Time to Expiration). This is the opposite of a ...

AlexanderGotay AlexanderGotay PRO BTCUSD, 240,
BTCUSD: BTC forecast for the next couple of weeks
777 4 13
BTCUSD, 240
BTC forecast for the next couple of weeks

I don't have any Bitcoin, but there are a lot of people wanting to know if this is the beginning of the end or a buy the dip opportunity. So here is my take and forecast for the next couple of weeks. We are now in the middle of the correction and right at the point where it is the moment of truth. So this is either the continuation of the C wave down or we are ...

IYR: Neutral trade on IYR,58% probability  (Strangle)
85 2 9
IYR, D
Neutral trade on IYR,58% probability (Strangle)

The Implied Volatility Rank of IYR is at 65 and with a down move of around 6% in the last 20 days, I expect we are going to start a correction soon around the value area. So I decided to sell a Strangle to collect some premium. With 37 days to expiration I Sold the 80/76 Strangle for 0.95 credit. That will give me a 58% probability to make money, but if I close ...

AlexanderGotay AlexanderGotay PRO XLU, D, Long ,
XLU: 72% Probability trade on XLU (Big Lizard)
111 0 9
XLU, D Long
72% Probability trade on XLU (Big Lizard)

The Utilities sector have been underperforming. With IV Rank of 67.5 and down around 10% since December we are getting at least some premium to sell. I don't want to risk a move upward, so I Sold a Big Lizard (Straddle at 51 and bought the 52 call) to eliminate the risk to the upside. This is a high probability trade above 70% and we make money as long as it ...

XLE: Strangle on XLE (58% probability)
115 0 8
XLE, D
Strangle on XLE (58% probability)

With the strong move to the upside, I am betting that we are starting a new auction between 78 and the 71 levels. So with an Implied volatility Rank of 37, I sold a Strangle at the 30 deltas for a $1.36 credit. As long as the price stays between $78.35 and $71.65, we will be making money. The Trade: Short 73 Puts Short 77 Calls Credit $1.36 per contract 58% ...

AlexanderGotay AlexanderGotay PRO QQQ, D, Short ,
QQQ: Short Calls in QQQ
196 4 10
QQQ, D Short
Short Calls in QQQ

QQQ have outperfomed SPY and with an IVR of 42 we are getting at least something for taking the risk against this Raging Bull Market. Also we have divergence and already over 2 standard deviation move in the last 20 days to help us make the case to go short. The Trade 42 days to Expiration Short the 165 Calls For $1.22 Credit Probability of profit 72% PS: I ...

AlexanderGotay AlexanderGotay PRO SPY, D, Long ,
SPY: Put Ratio on SPY (86% Probability)
260 2 7
SPY, D Long
Put Ratio on SPY (86% Probability)

New Year, and the market continues to go up with no mercy. With the over extension of the 20 EMA, Eventually it will have to make a correction, so I am trying to pin the down move for max profit at the nearest high volume area. Implied Volatility is still very low with the VIX at ~9 and IVR of 14, but we have to keep trading. Would make money as long as we stay ...

AlexanderGotay AlexanderGotay PRO BABA, D, Short ,
BABA: Getting short in BABA (Vertical Spread)
437 5 22
BABA, D Short
Getting short in BABA (Vertical Spread)

This is a directional play, BABA looks over extended and I think we will get a move back to the 20 EMA or even lower sometime between the next month. So I sold a Call vertical spread for $2.25 ea. This is a directional play and is basically a 58% probability of making money. Our max loss is $275 per contract and max win $225. Will look to close it early. The ...

NDX: Cashflow play on Nasdaq (Double Double)
209 1 15
NDX, 60
Cashflow play on Nasdaq (Double Double)

I am betting the market will be ranging and we can get a quick win by next week. The trade is like an iron condor, but with 2x the Calls vs the puts taking advantage of the skew and giving us more space to the downside. Our break evens are far away from the expected move at 5969.20 and 5648.1. This gives us a high chance of making money about 80% of the ...

FB: Iron Condor on Facebook
243 9 18
FB, D
Iron Condor on Facebook

With a small increase in the VIX today and FB still around 50 IV rank I added this trade to my FB positions to slowly start to have trades expiring in oct. The trade: Expiration date - Oct 20, 2017 Long 150 Put Short 155 Put Short 185 Call Long 190 Call Price: $1.10 Max loss: $390 Probability of profit 67%

E61!: Neutral trade on the Euro  (Skewed Strangle)
63 0 14
E61!, D
Neutral trade on the Euro (Skewed Strangle)

The Euro have been on a tear and is due a correction. However I think it will be slowly and gradually start a new range, giving us time to take profit of a volatility contraction. With 50 days to go I am selling a strangle of the DEC17 Euro Future Symbol /6EZ7. I am giving me some more space to the downside skewing the Strangle a little bit down to around the ...

KRE: 58% probability trade on KRE (Strangle)
78 1 13
KRE, D
58% probability trade on KRE (Strangle)

Neutral trade on KRE to try and take advantage of what I think it would be two sided action between buyers and sellers. With a Implied Volatility Rank of 33, is still decent to sell a Strangle (53/57). We make money as long as the price stays between 58.77 and 51.23 in the next 49 days, so we have a buffer of around 7% up or down. This gives us a probability of ...

AlexanderGotay AlexanderGotay PRO COST, D, Long ,
COST: 86% probability trade on Costco (Ratio Spread)
248 4 18
COST, D Long
86% probability trade on Costco (Ratio Spread)

After last earnings Costco had a 14% down move. If we take into consideration last year, we have a CVPOC at around $150 Price, and in the shorter term the VPOC is around $167 (2017). That means that those prices are the ones that have traded the most and considered fair for the stock. With an IV Rank at 67 we can sell some premium, so given the down move I ...

AlexanderGotay AlexanderGotay PRO VXX, 60, Short ,
VXX: Short volatility play in VXX
117 2 11
VXX, 60 Short
Short volatility play in VXX

With the spike in volatility and knowing that next week might be a slow one I did a short play on volatility. Sold the 8 days to expiration 14 Call on VXX for $0.68 per contract. This is a naked trade and it is a high probability trade, but it can be very risky if volatility explodes. If that happens we will have to defend it, but most likely by the end of ...

AlexanderGotay AlexanderGotay PRO XLK, 240,
XLK: 78% probability trade on XLK (Big Lizard)
83 0 12
XLK, 240
78% probability trade on XLK (Big Lizard)

With an Implied volatility rank at 49 I did a Straddle with no upside risk (Big Lizard) on XLK for $2.12 per contract. Our break even is at $51.88 price and with 50 days to expiration that gives us a 78% probability of profit. The trade: Sell 18 AUG 54 Call Sell 18 AUG 54 PUT Buy 18 AUG 56 Call

AlexanderGotay AlexanderGotay PRO SPY, 240, Short ,
SPY: Vertical debit spread on SPY
134 0 15
SPY, 240 Short
Vertical debit spread on SPY

I don't like debit spreads, but sometimes they give a nice risk reward, SPY have a Implied volatility rank of 1.4 at the time of this trade. This is basically a 50/50 trade but we are risking less than the potential max profit. The trade: Buy 242 Put Sell 240 Put Paid 0.65 per contract I did 10 contracts so the max profit is $1,350 and my max loss is $650. ...

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