AlexanderGotay

PRO
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Markets Allocation
73 % stocks 16 % commodities 5 % forex 6 % other
Top Mentioned Symbols
QQQ 3% | 3 KRE 3% | 3 TLT 3% | 3 VXX 3% | 3
AlexanderGotay AlexanderGotay PRO BABA, D, Short ,
BABA: Getting short in BABA (Vertical Spread)
373 5 19
BABA, D Short
Getting short in BABA (Vertical Spread)

This is a directional play, BABA looks over extended and I think we will get a move back to the 20 EMA or even lower sometime between the next month. So I sold a Call vertical spread for $2.25 ea. This is a directional play and is basically a 58% probability of making money. Our max loss is $275 per contract and max win $225. Will look to close it early. The ...

NDX: Cashflow play on Nasdaq (Double Double)
142 1 12
NDX, 60
Cashflow play on Nasdaq (Double Double)

I am betting the market will be ranging and we can get a quick win by next week. The trade is like an iron condor, but with 2x the Calls vs the puts taking advantage of the skew and giving us more space to the downside. Our break evens are far away from the expected move at 5969.20 and 5648.1. This gives us a high chance of making money about 80% of the ...

FB: Iron Condor on Facebook
201 9 16
FB, D
Iron Condor on Facebook

With a small increase in the VIX today and FB still around 50 IV rank I added this trade to my FB positions to slowly start to have trades expiring in oct. The trade: Expiration date - Oct 20, 2017 Long 150 Put Short 155 Put Short 185 Call Long 190 Call Price: $1.10 Max loss: $390 Probability of profit 67%

E61!: Neutral trade on the Euro  (Skewed Strangle)
39 0 11
E61!, D
Neutral trade on the Euro (Skewed Strangle)

The Euro have been on a tear and is due a correction. However I think it will be slowly and gradually start a new range, giving us time to take profit of a volatility contraction. With 50 days to go I am selling a strangle of the DEC17 Euro Future Symbol /6EZ7. I am giving me some more space to the downside skewing the Strangle a little bit down to around the ...

KRE: 58% probability trade on KRE (Strangle)
67 1 11
KRE, D
58% probability trade on KRE (Strangle)

Neutral trade on KRE to try and take advantage of what I think it would be two sided action between buyers and sellers. With a Implied Volatility Rank of 33, is still decent to sell a Strangle (53/57). We make money as long as the price stays between 58.77 and 51.23 in the next 49 days, so we have a buffer of around 7% up or down. This gives us a probability of ...

AlexanderGotay AlexanderGotay PRO COST, D, Long ,
COST: 86% probability trade on Costco (Ratio Spread)
230 4 15
COST, D Long
86% probability trade on Costco (Ratio Spread)

After last earnings Costco had a 14% down move. If we take into consideration last year, we have a CVPOC at around $150 Price, and in the shorter term the VPOC is around $167 (2017). That means that those prices are the ones that have traded the most and considered fair for the stock. With an IV Rank at 67 we can sell some premium, so given the down move I ...

AlexanderGotay AlexanderGotay PRO VXX, 60, Short ,
VXX: Short volatility play in VXX
107 2 10
VXX, 60 Short
Short volatility play in VXX

With the spike in volatility and knowing that next week might be a slow one I did a short play on volatility. Sold the 8 days to expiration 14 Call on VXX for $0.68 per contract. This is a naked trade and it is a high probability trade, but it can be very risky if volatility explodes. If that happens we will have to defend it, but most likely by the end of ...

AlexanderGotay AlexanderGotay PRO XLK, 240,
XLK: 78% probability trade on XLK (Big Lizard)
74 0 11
XLK, 240
78% probability trade on XLK (Big Lizard)

With an Implied volatility rank at 49 I did a Straddle with no upside risk (Big Lizard) on XLK for $2.12 per contract. Our break even is at $51.88 price and with 50 days to expiration that gives us a 78% probability of profit. The trade: Sell 18 AUG 54 Call Sell 18 AUG 54 PUT Buy 18 AUG 56 Call

AlexanderGotay AlexanderGotay PRO SPY, 240, Short ,
SPY: Vertical debit spread on SPY
118 0 14
SPY, 240 Short
Vertical debit spread on SPY

I don't like debit spreads, but sometimes they give a nice risk reward, SPY have a Implied volatility rank of 1.4 at the time of this trade. This is basically a 50/50 trade but we are risking less than the potential max profit. The trade: Buy 242 Put Sell 240 Put Paid 0.65 per contract I did 10 contracts so the max profit is $1,350 and my max loss is $650. ...

AlexanderGotay AlexanderGotay PRO QQQ, 240,
QQQ: 30 Delta Strangle on QQQ
97 0 10
QQQ, 240
30 Delta Strangle on QQQ

With IVR of 45 the Q's have the highest Implied volatility out of the index trinity. I sold the 50 days to expiration 142/133 Strangle for $3.39 per contract and will look to close it at 50% of the credit received, for a 72% probability of profit.

OIH: No risk to the upside trade on OIH (Big Lizard)
129 0 13
OIH, D
No risk to the upside trade on OIH (Big Lizard)

After a couple of down days in oil OIH have been affected. Now with an Implied Volatility rank of 27 it gives us a chance to sell some premium. A big lizard (Straddle with no upside risk) is a nice probability trade to do in case it decides to bounce back up. Trade price $1.24 per contract The trade: Sellthe Jul21 24.5 Call Sell the Jul21 24.5 Put Buy the ...

KRE: No risk to the upside 80% on KRE (Jade Lizard)
114 0 11
KRE, D
No risk to the upside 80% on KRE (Jade Lizard)

In the last 90 days we had a 14% down move and got rejected at the 200 EMA. We might still have more room to go to the downside, but I am betting that we are still correcting and some buyers may start to come in. With an implied volatility rank of 34 and 50 days to expiration, I sold a Jade lizard to eliminate the risk to the upside and still have room to the ...

XOP: Over 70% trade on XOP (Big Lizard)
102 0 11
XOP, D
Over 70% trade on XOP (Big Lizard)

Closed a trade last week and had no position in XOP. Today we had a -2% move down and around 9% in the last month IV rank is not great, but right now not many ETF's have over 20 Implided volatility rank. So I decided to sell a straddle with no upside risk (Big Lizard). The trade: Sold the 33 Call Sold the 33 Put Bought the 35 Call Total credit $2.16

DIA: Neutral trade on DIA (double double)
132 0 11
DIA, D
Neutral trade on DIA (double double)

DIA IVR 33.8 Sold the 211/215/201/188 Iron condor for $4.70 Target 50% of credit received Ratio 3x the calls spreads for every 1x Puts spreads The trade: Sold (3x) 211 Calls Buy (3x) 215 Calls Sold (1x) 201 Put Buy (1x) 188 Put for $4.70 Max profit $470 Max loss $830

MSFT: Neutral trade on MSFT (IronFly)
165 4 15
MSFT, D
Neutral trade on MSFT (IronFly)

With an IVR of 51.5 on Microsoft I sold an Iron fly with 29 days to expiration for $2.32 This is a neutral trade and we make money as long as price stays between $65.18 and 69.82 in the next 29 days. The trade: Long 72.5 Call Short 67.5 Call Short 67.5 Put Long 62.5 Put Max win $232 per contract

EWZ: Brazil went down big, let's sell premium (Big lizard)
148 0 16
EWZ, D
Brazil went down big, let's sell premium (Big lizard)

After some negative news about bribery in the government the Brazil's ETF (EWZ) got killed at the open with a 18% down move. With the Implied volatility rank of the stock at the high's of the last 52 weeks(100%) it means that buying options is going to be expensive, in other words we are going to be selling overpriced options. Betting that this is an over ...

QQQ: Neutral trade on QQQ (Laddered Strangles)
137 0 13
QQQ, D
Neutral trade on QQQ (Laddered Strangles)

Out of the equities ETF's QQQ have the highest IVR of 19. So I decided to do laddered Strangles with 35 DTE and 70 DTE to reduce risk. 144/131 Strangle (Jul 21) for $1.67 142/134 Strangle (Jun 16) for $1.27

XRT: 81% probability trade on XRT (Put Ratio spread)
103 0 10
XRT, D
81% probability trade on XRT (Put Ratio spread)

High probability trade on XRT with no risk to the upside. Max profit at $41 our break even at $39.85. The trade: Sold Two (-2) 41 Puts for every one (-1) 42 Put for a credit of $0.15 (per contract).

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