AlexanderGotay

PRO
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Last visit Joined 2 years ago
Markets Allocation
42 % commodities 29 % stocks 17 % forex 13 % other
Top Mentioned Symbols
ZB1! 12% | 3 GC1! 8% | 2 CL1! 8% | 2 NG1! 8% | 2
AlexanderGotay AlexanderGotay PRO TLT, D, 2 months ago
TLT: Neutral - ATM Ratio on TLT with no risk to the upside
70 0 9
TLT, D
Neutral - ATM Ratio on TLT with no risk to the upside

Similar to the FXE trade we can make another at the money ratio spread on TLT. With a 71.8% chance of profit. We make money as long as we stay above 115.60 in the next 44 days.

AlexanderGotay AlexanderGotay PRO FXE, D, 2 months ago
FXE: ATM Ratio spread on FXE
38 0 7
FXE, D
ATM Ratio spread on FXE

With the IV rank above 50 on FXE its a good time to sell premium. I could do a Strangle or Straddle, but since we are at an extreme and very far from the 200 EMA I don't want the risk to the upside. So I will be making a at the money Put ratio spread. Selling 2 of the 102 Puts to finance one of the 104 Puts. This way we have a 69.5% chance to make money at ...

AlexanderGotay AlexanderGotay PRO NG1!, D, 2 months ago
NG1!: Double Ratio on Natural Gas (NGAS)
206 2 16
NG1!, D
Double Ratio on Natural Gas (NGAS)

The last 50 days, we got a nice move of over 50% in Natural Gas over 50%. I just closed a covered Strangle for a nice profit and its now time to redeploy, since I think the price is going to slow down. Price is over extended above the 20EMA and I expect a correction, so I just made one of my favorite trades. The double Ratio. I bought the 4.25 Call and sold ...

AlexanderGotay AlexanderGotay PRO SPX, D, Short , 4 months ago
SPX: Volatility play on SPX with the VIX under 14
137 0 10
SPX, D Short
Volatility play on SPX with the VIX under 14

Every time volatility is low we can make this type of trades expecting a high success rate. The Vix (volatility index) is below 14 so I like to redeploy a SPX PUT calendar buying the DEC 2115 PUT and selling the NOV 2115 PUT. This is a volatility and I like to always have this type of trades on. I got filled at 15.40 and my target is 10% of the cost or $154.

AlexanderGotay AlexanderGotay PRO ZB1!, 240, Long , 4 months ago
ZB1!: SuperBull play on Bonds
47 0 8
ZB1!, 240 Long
SuperBull play on Bonds

With clear divergence and a clear break of the EMA I expect Bonds to recover back up a little. Adding some positive deltas to my current positions on bonds, I will Buy The 164/166 Call Debit spread and Sell the 162 Put to finance the cost. That would put our break even below the Weakly trend line. Max Profit $2,171.88 Break even at 161'21 76% of profit

AlexanderGotay AlexanderGotay PRO GC1!, 240, Long , 4 months ago
GC1!: Selling Puts in Gold to take advantage of a possible pullback
74 0 7
GC1!, 240 Long
Selling Puts in Gold to take advantage of a possible pullback

Gold looks like is losing momentum from the big move down. Its flirting to break the 20EMA on 4hr and we are over extended on the daily. Looking to take advantage of a correction I will be adding to my other positions by selling the 1230 PUT for $1,100. As long as the price continue to be above 1230 by November 23rd we keep the full Credit. Break even @ ...

AlexanderGotay AlexanderGotay PRO XLU, D, 4 months ago
XLU: Neutral Long Put Ratios on XLU
63 0 13
XLU, D
Neutral Long Put Ratios on XLU

XLU have a 86% IV Percentile, which means that 86% of the days over the past year the Implied Volatity was below this level. Custom Put Ratio's Buy +1 NOV 48 PUT Sell-2 NOV 47 PUT BUY +1 NOV 46 PUT SELL-2 NOV 45 PUT This will give us a max profit of $171 with a 77% chance of making money. And we only lose if the price goes below $44.64. Since we are adding ...

AlexanderGotay AlexanderGotay PRO CL1!, D, 4 months ago
CL1!: 80% probability trade on Oil with Future Options
198 0 12
CL1!, D
80% probability trade on Oil with Future Options

Last 2 weeks, oil have been climbing up and now we are at the $50 handle which can be an interesting price. I believe it can still go higher, but its already pretty far from the moving average and will soon start to give us a correction down. Having already multiple positions in oil, I will sell a Call ratio spread (Buying 1 $51 call and Selling 2 $53.5 Calls to ...

AlexanderGotay AlexanderGotay PRO IYR, 240, Long , 4 months ago
IYR: Very high probability trade on IYR
60 1 15
IYR, 240 Long
Very high probability trade on IYR

IYR haved moved over 8% in the last 2 months. With an IV percentile of over 60% we can sell premium and get a higher probability trade. I will be using a combination of ratio spreads Selling the (2) 73 and (2) 78 Puts and buying (1) 75 put and (1) 81 put. This will give us the potential to win $330 per trade and giving us a break even of $72.84 with a 85% ...

AlexanderGotay AlexanderGotay PRO EWW, 60, 4 months ago
EWW: Straddle for a neutral trade on EWW
20 0 5
EWW, 60
Straddle for a neutral trade on EWW

With the IV percentile over 90% we can sell premium to get a nice credit. I sold a Straddle @ 49 (sold 1 put, and 1 call with a 49 strike price) with 45 days to go to expiration.

AlexanderGotay AlexanderGotay PRO TBT, D, 4 months ago
TBT: TBT Short Strangle
39 2 9
TBT, D
TBT Short Strangle

We got some movement in Bonds, and a small rise in Volatility. The Implied volatility is above the last year average, knowing that volatility is always overstated I look every opportunity to sell some premium. This is a small trade, but I will be selling the 33/30 Strangle 49 days from expiration for $1.22 per contract with a probability of making money at ...

AlexanderGotay AlexanderGotay PRO RUT, D, Short , 4 months ago
RUT: RUT  Put Calendar (Volatility Play)
42 0 5
RUT, D Short
RUT Put Calendar (Volatility Play)

With the moved down in volatility the last couple of days and RVX (Russell Volatility Index) almost at the year lows a Put calendar seems like a pretty safe bet. I will be buying the Nov 1230 Put and selling the Oct 1230 Put. Looking to close it early as soon as we get a volatility spike.

AlexanderGotay AlexanderGotay PRO GC1!, D, 4 months ago
GC1!: Double Calendar on Gold looking for a volatility spike.
116 0 8
GC1!, D
Double Calendar on Gold looking for a volatility spike.

After 80 plus days in a sideways move consolidating, we are right at a point where Gold can start to move. With volatility at the lows, a good strategy would be to buy a double calendar to take advantage of any strong move that will make volatility expand. I will be buying the Dec 1365 Call and 1295 Put, and Selling the Nov 1365 Call and 1295 Put.

AlexanderGotay AlexanderGotay PRO NG1!, 240, Short , 4 months ago
NG1!: Covered Strangle on Natural Gas Futures
217 2 15
NG1!, 240 Short
Covered Strangle on Natural Gas Futures

After 14 days of mostly bullish candles, we get the first sign that the bears wants some action and/or some bulls taking profits, breaking the 20 EMA and the hourly trendline. Looking to profit from the next move down, I will be shorting the Natural Gas Futures and Sell a Strangle ( 3.2 Call and 2.85 Put) to reduce my cost basis and improve my probabilities of ...

AlexanderGotay AlexanderGotay PRO FB, D, 4 months ago
FB: Straddle on Facebook
110 1 6
FB, D
Straddle on Facebook

Sold a 25 days $127 Straddle on Facebook. We have earnings in 35 days, so I don't expect big moves until then and we will be out of it before then. Collected $520 per contract, we just need the price to stay between $121.82 and $132.21 for us to make $

AlexanderGotay AlexanderGotay PRO CL1!, D, 4 months ago
CL1!: Neutral to Bullish Ratio inside the corrective structure of Oil
137 1 6
CL1!, D
Neutral to Bullish Ratio inside the corrective structure of Oil

Oil is in the middle of a Correction. I still expect it to go down lower, but until then we can still trade it. My favorite strategy in this cases is to use a In the money Ratio Spread using December options (Buying one $51.5 Put and selling 2 $47 puts for a total credit). If it breaks to the upside, there is no risk, and if it goes down then I will short the ...

AlexanderGotay AlexanderGotay PRO VIX, D, Short , 5 months ago
VIX: High probability volatility play on VIX
99 2 9
VIX, D Short
High probability volatility play on VIX

The last couple of days we saw volatility spike up. Knowing that the volatility will eventually go back to its mean we can make a high probability trade using the VIX -1.51% . By Selling a credit vertical spread, selling the 20 call and buying the 28 call with an expiration on November we have over 60 days to let the VIX stay below 21.45 to make money. We can also ...

AlexanderGotay AlexanderGotay PRO GBPUSD, 60, Long , 5 months ago
GBPUSD: Buy reversal on GBPUSD
62 0 6
GBPUSD, 60 Long
Buy reversal on GBPUSD

I will be buying the pull back to the 20 EMA, lets see if this is the beginning of the next move up.

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