... for a 2.62/contract credit.
Max Profit on Setup: $138/contract
Max Loss on Setup: $262/contract
Debit Paid to Spread Width Ratio: 65.5%
Break Even: 18.62 vs. 18.60 spot
Notes: Taking a bullish assumption directional shot in OIH with plenty of time to work out/reduce cost basis ... . Will look at taking profit at 50% max.
SLB and HAL 2 examples of top holdings. It's time for the down trend pressure to end for now. This is a slow moving sector and most all stocks in this space gaped lower after last earnings. Time to create a shopping list if dip buyers show up.
- They are "Twins" in long term.
- In short term, since last high on MAY 17, 2018, OIH is weaker than XLE.
- Lower lows and lower highs for OIH
- OIH is on the supportive price formed by last two reversing points
- XLE does not hit the lower, instead it has a higher low which looks like it has reversed the downtrend
If XLE is the right, it means OIH has found or ...
Oil Services has been lagging the energy recovery.
This could be the start to another move higher. Recently OIH has had massive under-performance relative to oil.
Breakout out or get out. Maintain the RR. The under performance has be significant thus far.
... for a 2.36/contract credit.
Probability of Profit: 55%
Max Profit: $236/contact
Max Loss/Buying Power Effect On Margin: Undefined/$525/contract
Break Evens: 23.64/28.36
Notes: Did this from my phone on Friday ... . Although I like to see >35% background implied volatility when pulling the trigger on these, at 30.3%, this ...
Morning Friends, check out this chart!
OIH is starting to roll over. Will oil follow? All of the smaller oil plays have performed great (DNR, GTE) but it is time to seriously consider taking profits.
Not that there will be a time to get back in again. That is the good news.
This is a Poor Man's Covered Call, with the 90 delta July long call standing in as your stock, and the April 20th 26 short call functioning as it would in a covered call situation. Your max loss is the difference between what you paid for the long (currently 6.28 at the mid) minus what you received for the short call (currently .69 at the mid). Consequently, you ...
... for a .97/contract credit.
Probability of Profit: 62%
Max Profit: $97/contract
Max Loss: $2303
Break Even: 23.03
* -- Assuming price goes to zero and you do no rolls or take other loss mitigation measures (e.g., sell short call verts against, etc.).
Notes: With background implied volatility greater than 35% and with the recent sell-off in both oil ...
Although earnings season continues to drag on here, a small financial media theme has emerged in this sell-off and that's that "Earnings don't matter" ... at least, at the moment.
In keeping with that mini-theme, I'm looking at putting on plays in sector exchange-traded funds, and two of the ones that have been battered the most in this market have been OIH and ...
DESPITE TECH SECTOR XLK BEING THE STRONGEST AND UNRELENTLESSLY BREAKING NEW HIGHS ON A WEEKLY BASIS, OIH STILL MANAGED TO OUTPERFORM THE KING XLK ON THE WEEKLY CHART!!!
THIS SHOWS INCREDIBLE UNDERLYING STRENGTH IN OIH!
REV H&S BULLISH DIVERGENCE BREAKOUT!
8 & 21 WEEKLY MA BUY SIGNAL!
BULLISH REVALIDATION AND RECOVERY OFF THE 7 MONTHS REV H&S NECKLINE!
With over 20% move to the upside in the last 29 days, I think is time for OIH to have some sort of pullback or correction. The last 5 candles couldn't close outside of the Upper Bollinger Band, so it looks like is losing momentum and most likely retrace at least to the midline.
Implied Volatility Rank is at 54 so I sold the 28/27 Put Ratio Spread (2 Short Puts ...