The long-term stock market trend unquestionably continues to be an upward one. However, there are seasonal and other factors (such as market breadth, etc) that may be pointing towards a potential pause or reversal.
Since no single indicator is fool-proof, a "weight of the evidence" approach is always warranted. Such an approach ideally includes a variety of...
Utilities keeps pushing higher and is looking to be chasing for the extension to the 1.272 fib. This is a long term play that I have been looking at for a while now.
Investors appear to be taking risk off as they move into Utilities. XLU continues to move higher; weekly RSI is approaching 61.8 level. This level provided strong resistance over the past year or so. Therefore, a move past that level would be significant.
Given that is where we are headed (quad 3 or 4), I 'll be looking to build a position here. I'll specifically be looking for a momentum swing on the oscillator as a signal the regime turn is happening, or in fact in.
Staying short XLU
Daily says snap back into down trend, under 50 day ma sitting on 100 day ma. Look at vol more selling then buying
Weekly says stay short
Daily stoch on bottom lots selling vol
should bounce off 100 day ma took some profits today not all
perfect bounce
Weekly looks great stoch heading south nice lower highs lower lows
Remember I was short it and took all my profits
Daily wants to rally stoch up
Weekly not so still heading down has not turned up so with that the daily stoch rally will be weak
unless the weekly turns up, so in terms swing trading is a short still
with a small bounce
daily look lower highs like res short 66
Daily stoch says wants rally some
see how we held 50 day daily so I took 3/4 off short
keeping 1/4 on
I manage my money not my stock
Weekly says stay sort long term
will add back when chart says so
Arca
