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Markets Allocation
52 % stocks 19 % indices 4 % cryptocurrency 26 % other
Top Mentioned Symbols
VIX 6% | 2 TXCX 6% | 2 SPX 6% | 2 GILD 3% | 1
dime dime XRPUSD, 60,
XRPUSD: XRP mania
2939 7 25
XRPUSD, 60
XRP mania

To buy or not to buy at the all time high? The cryptocurrency world is full of mania, hype and volatility. The latest greatest token gets pumped until dumped. And for the past few years, fortune favors the brave who continue to HODL for the long term. But just how volatile? We can look at the measure of 30 day historic volatility using an chart study ...

dime dime GILD, D,
GILD: GILD Covered Call
86 0 5
GILD, D
GILD Covered Call

SOLD -1 GILD 100 17 NOV 17 90 CALL @1.00 Adjusted Cost Basis $87.70 Just a few hours ago I didn't see any chance of turning a profit on this investment any time soon. Unexpectedly the stock rallied over 7% today (now up 25% off lows) and above the average year end analyst target. Expected Outcomes: - With selling off the 'unlimited upside', if GILD is above ...

dime dime CSCO, D,
CSCO: CSCO covered strangle
37 0 4
CSCO, D
CSCO covered strangle

Sold the OCT 20 30/32, ~ 30 deltas, 58 days, @ 40% IV Rank now, (I missed my chance selling when the IV was higher before earnings ) I'm sitting on 3 lots of stock here with 31.64 cost basis. I could have just sold the 32 call against my stock position, but it seems to make more sense to sell the strangle as it brings in more premium and both the call & put ...

dime dime HPQ, D,
HPQ: HPQ Covered Call
21 0 5
HPQ, D
HPQ Covered Call

This covered call play in HPQ is partially an earnings play as well as longer term investment into October. HPQ reports earnings tomorrow after the bell, and currently has an inflated IV rank of 69%, IV 32.9% At the moment, the expected move is +/- 0.9 or 4.7%. Most of the previous 8 earnings reports the stock moved a wider range than this. (Half gaining and ...

dime dime XRT, D,
XRT: XRT 37/42 Strangle update
22 0 5
XRT, D
XRT 37/42 Strangle update

On August 10, I sold the 37/42 Sep 15 strangle in XRT, about 19 delta strikes for 0.65. 80% IV Rank and 26.6% IV. The following week I closed the 42 call at 5c for no fee. The 37 put remains, and the share price looks like a good spot for it to bounce upward from here. Today the XRT is up the greatest % of the sector SPDR ETFs as investors do some ...

dime dime WMT, D, Short ,
WMT: WMT overvalued & ripe for pullback?
44 0 3
WMT, D Short
WMT overvalued & ripe for pullback?

WMT completed a head and shoulder pattern without any substantial pullback in July. WMT is currently at the average analysts 12 months target of $81. However, according to Trefis and CFRA, the fair value of WMT is approximately 5% to 7% lower. A meaningful pullback of 10% to the 200 day moving average would not be unreasonable should investors be displeased with ...

dime dime OIH, D,
OIH: CLOSED:  OIH Aug credit spread
15 0 3
OIH, D
CLOSED: OIH Aug credit spread

The bear call credit spread strategy gives a decent probability of profit, defined risk, and expresses a bearish opinion that the underlying will move lower. The IVR on OIH reached above 70% and July 12 with a bearish opinion I sold the 25/26 call spread, 2 contracts @ 36 credit ea. The $25.36 break even was quickly tested the following days, but ...

dime dime AAPL, D,
AAPL: AAPL Strangle
93 0 3
AAPL, D
AAPL Strangle

The day after earnings, IVR remained high around 58%, IV 21.7 Sold the Sep 15 145/170 for 1.70 credit (approximately the 16delta / 1SD range) Ideally I can manage this for an early profit at $85 or less. With luck it'll work as smoothly as the last time where it only took a couple weeks to reach 50% of max profit.

dime dime PFE, D,
PFE: PFE Covered Strangle
31 0 4
PFE, D
PFE Covered Strangle

In May I'd sold a covered call on PFE for debt of 32.50 (expired). I'd also had 1 lot from a year ago at 34.76. (Adjusted cost basis for 2 lots @ 33.63 ) I sold 32/34 Sep strangle for 50c before earnings for break-evens at 31.50 & 34.50. Today's current 1SD range by Sep expiry is 32-35, highlighted orange above. Possible outcomes: 1) Ideally the stock will ...

dime dime INTC, D,
INTC: INTC Covered Straddle for earnings
56 0 5
INTC, D
INTC Covered Straddle for earnings

I acquired 2 lots of INTC from selling the 35 & 36 covered calls back in June (the calls expired). With call premium this was a 34.66 cost basis on 2 lots of INTC On Jul 27 for playing earnings, I sold the 35 straddle for 166 credit, for breakevens at 33.34 & 36.66 1 lot of stock was called away at 35 yesterday right at the breakeven. (Costs another $15 for ...

dime dime T, D,
T: Covered Straddle on T
53 0 7
T, D
Covered Straddle on T

T stock has earnings July 25 after the bell and the current implied volatility is inflated. Can current stock owners profit from selling premium before earnings? What if the investor is willing to acquire more shares if the stock falls to the put strike and willing to sell shares held if the stock price rises to the call strike? Last price of of 36.52 Implied ...

dime dime FEZ, D,
FEZ: FEZ Iron Fly
28 0 9
FEZ, D
FEZ Iron Fly

With the May 7 French election this Sunday the IV rank on FEZ today was decent at 46%. A 36/39/42 iron fly on June 16 expiry brought in $155 credit and $145 max loss. Breakevens at 37.45 and 40.55. By Monday morning I expect the IV to deflate quickly. After the first election round the IV in FEZ deflated 10 points when markets opened the next day. I'll ...

dime dime GLD, D, Long ,
GLD: Studying the 'measured move' in GLD
116 0 8
GLD, D Long
Studying the 'measured move' in GLD

The 123 at-the-money straddle for GLD on the May19 expiry was $2.22+$2.52=$4.74 at the close of Thursday's trading. The options market implies a 1 standard deviation range (68% probability) of approximately 118.26 - 127.74. The 16 delta option strikes are approximately 118 & 131 (slightly higher on the call strike). I see some resistance on GLD at 124.40 ...

dime dime SPX, W, Short ,
SPX: SPX weekly technical analysis
138 0 3
SPX, W Short
SPX weekly technical analysis

This longer term 'big picture' view of the index shows some interesting relationships. The 1000 week linear regression line is used for a long term estimate of the growth. The pitchfork connects the two previous highs and and the 1000 week linear regression. The 100 and 200 week medians match quite closely to the tines of the fork. From this longer term technical ...

dime dime TXCX, W, Short ,
TXCX: TSX Composite Index Analyst Forecast
125 1 3
TXCX, W Short
TSX Composite Index Analyst Forecast

Longer term into the end of next year the TSX is attractive for bulls. Currently the index may be as much as 6% over the average analyst year end target. Were the analysts too conservative in their 2016 year end forecast? With the fall historically being bearish for markets and oil, a significant pullback ahead seems reasonable. S&P/TSX Composite ...

dime dime DTB3, D, Short ,
DTB3: Rate hike indicator: the 3 month treasury
99 0 4
DTB3, D Short
Rate hike indicator: the 3 month treasury

The reason for Friday's massive market selling is said to be because of the Fed's message that the rate hike is coming. Seems that it may just be broad market selling after a period of complacent low VIX and broader overvaluation. For confirmation that the rate hike is coming I'll be watching the 3 month treasury rate closely for signs. A move from .30 to .55 ...

dime dime USDCNY, D, Short ,
USDCNY: Global Selloff: Keep your eye on USD/CNY
98 0 4
USDCNY, D Short
Global Selloff: Keep your eye on USD/CNY

If this game was baseball, three strikes would mean you're out. Could this be the start of a third wave of devaluation in the Chinese Yuan? Each time the Chinese Yuan devalues it just happens to coincide with a massive selloff in the SPX. 2015 was the first time that China reduced its stake in Treasuries on an annual basis in an attempt to support the yuan and ...

dime dime DVOL, D, Short ,
DVOL: NYSE down volume highest since 2011
122 0 4
DVOL, D Short
NYSE down volume highest since 2011

Could this bear party be just getting started? On Friday the NYSE down volume or DVOL rose to it's highest since 2011 And this is likely just the first day of a larger selloff. Whats your thoughts ? Please comment!

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