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Markets Allocation
51 % stocks 18 % indices 2 % cryptocurrency 29 % other
Top Mentioned Symbols
XAUUSD 6% | 3 FRED/TEDRATE 4% | 2 SPX 4% | 2 SPY 4% | 2
dime dime XLK, 1D,
13 0 2
XLK, 1D
OPENING: XLK AUG/SEP 72/76 BEAR PUT DIAGONAL

BOT +1 DIAGONAL XLK 100 21 SEP 18/17 AUG 18 76/72 PUT @2.75 Paid 2.75 (debt is 69% of the width ) Breakeven @ expiry $73.58 -39 delta, .96 theta Max Loss : $275 Max Profit : $126 Notes: Opened a bearish trade here fade the recent rally and add some negative deltas to balance the portfolio. Following another great trade idea from NaughtyPines! (link ...

dime dime SPX, 1W,
217 1 5
SPX, 1W
Estimate the SPX forward price/earnings valuation

What earnings multiple or P/E do you expect the SPX to reach by year end 2018 or 2019? It's like a game of guess the jellybeans in the jar, so have some fun and play along! Share your estimate in the comments! The SPX will finish the year at a price and will report earnings when the year is out. What do you expect that will be? ( Whether you agree or disagree ...

dime dime FXE, 1D,
25 0 3
FXE, 1D
Opening: FXE Aug 111 Straddle with 8 delta Dec wings

I've a bearish bias on the EURUSD based on capital outflow due to the low yield on Bunds vs much more attractive US treasury yield. In a nutshell I've short straddled FXE at 111 until Aug expiry and longed a 104/122 strangle until year end. Back in June 26 When EURUSD @ 1.165 I sold the FXE AUG 111 straddle for @2.70 with IV at 7.98. This gave me breakevens at ...

268 1 11
XAUUSD, 1M
XAUUSD: What's it worth? The correlation to real yields

This chart compares the real yield of long term Treasuries (top) to gold in USD (bottom). The real yield is the investor in long term Tresuries expects to receive after allowing for inflation (nominal interest rate minus the inflation rate). At a glance there's visibly a strong negative correlation betweeen real rates and the price of gold over time. Research ...

dime dime GLD, 1D,
123 1 5
GLD, 1D
OPENING: GLD OCT112/AUG 122 Diagonal / PMCC

Opened a 'poor mans covered call' on GLD. Going long on this alternative asset class to diversify the portfolio. My overall bias is higher gold based on the technical price trend since 2016 and expect we'll soon see a reversion towards the mean/median price range. Bought the OCT 112 CALL at 86 deltas, 105 days to expiration as a stock replacement for 8.12 and ...

79 0 3
SPX500, 1D
SPX 30 day expected move

Based on a current VIX of 15 divided by the square root of 12 (months). This implies a 30 day SPX expected move of +/- 4.33% (1 standard deviation range). The market is pricing in a 68% probability the SPX will close within 2620-2860 by Aug 2. What are your thoughts on trading the expected move implied by the VIX or options market?

dime dime USO, 1D, Short ,
113 0 3
USO, 1D Short
OPENING: USO Put Diagonal AUG/OCT 14.5/17 PMCP

USO Bearish Put Diagonal or Poor Man's Covered Put After nearly 15% rise in the WTI price in recent weeks, I'm taking a small bearish bet on oil with reasonable odds over the next 46 days of a small pullback back 3% to under 14.50. Followed the trade idea shared by the fine work of Sir NaughtyPines (link below). Long the OCT 17 put strike at 77 delta and ...

dime dime XOP, 1D,
31 0 2
XOP, 1D
OPENING: XOP Aug $42 big lizard

Sold the XOP 100 17 AUG 42/45 'big lizard' for a credit of 2.90. The strategy is essentially short the 42 straddle with a long 45 strike call to limit the upside risk. The 'proft zone' 39.11-44.90 with almost no risk to the upside. I plan to manage a winner early to collect around $70-75 ( 25% of the initial credit ). Currently there's 46 days to expiry but ...

114 1 5
XAUUSD, 1D
Gold 'expected move' based on CBOE GVX

My understanding of the GVX gold implied volatility index from CBOE reading 10.44% is approximately 16% probability of gold finishing > 1300 in the next 30 days. Based on the annualized GVX rate of 10.4% and divide by the sqrt(12) = we get a 30 day expected expected move range. This means a 1 standard deviation range of 68% probability of the price ...

dime dime EEM, 1W,
94 1 7
EEM, 1W
Emerging Markets Meltdown Ahead?

"Mounting debt loads, trade battles, rising interest rates and stalled growth have made emerging markets more vulnerable than on the eve of the 2008 financial crisis. ~ Harvard professor Carmen Reinhart "The current episode somewhat resembles the Asian financial crisis of the late 1990s, when the M S C I Emerging Markets Index for developing-nation stocks slid ...

dime dime SPY, D,
187 1 5
SPY, D
SPX Volatility Coefficient

The ratio of the 20 bar historic volatility (HV20) to the VIX is at 1.08 which suggests market equilibrium at the close last week. When the VIX and the HV20 are in equilibrium, the ratio is around 1.0 . Here's the math: VIX 12.2 / HV20 11.3 = 1.08 Typically the ratio can reach approx 2.0 when the VIX 'fear index' is double that of the HV20. This can ...

108 0 2
XAUUSD/DGS2, 1M
Gold to 2 year Treasury Ratio

This log chart compares the Gold price in USD to the short term 2 year Treasury yield. Since gold has no yield is it possible it will continue to sell off as 'risk free' treasury yields rise? Some analysts expect the Fed to hike three more times this year and four times in 2019, bringing the terminal fed funds rate to 3.4%. Could potentially the yield ...

159 2 5
160/SPX, 1D
2018 SPX earnings yield

The SPX volatility so far this year shows some uncertainty over 'fair value'. Based on 2018 earnings estimates from Factset of 160 earnings/share for the SPX, if we divide 160 by the current SPX price the chart reflects what's known as the 'earnings yield'. Shown inversely it is known as the forward P/E ratio. So far this year the SPX earnings yield has ...

dime dime HPQ, 1D, Long ,
70 0 2
HPQ, 1D Long
HPQ covered strangle

Rather than just holding HPQ stock with hope that it may go higher this year, collecting a 2.5% yield while waiting, I instead plan to sell options premium this week against my $22 cost basis for a higher return on capital. Implied volatility on HPQ is over 30% and rising as we near the earnings report date of May 29 after the close. Of the past 8 quarterly ...

dime dime SLV, 1D,
71 0 3
SLV, 1D
SLV June 16 Covered Call

Bought two lots of SLV at 15.74 and sold June 16 calls for 38 ea (45 delta strike). The IV was >20% today. The position break even is reduced to 15.36 with a 4% max profit on the break even cost. At 60 days to expiry, this yields 25% at an annualized rate. Ideally the cost basis on the position can be further reduced after June with additional calls sold ...

162 0 6
FRED/TEDRATE, 1W
What LIBOR is Warning Investors

LIBOR, the rate banks charge to borrow from each other, is a key measure of short-term borrowing costs that often serves as a gauge of financial distress. It's estimated that 50 trillion of assets are pegged to the LIBOR rate and lately it's been rising fast. Certainly a rise in LIBOR can be attributed to increases in the Fed Funds rate. But is that all, or ...

72 1 2
FRED/TEDRATE, 1W
Are stocks crashing? Watch the junk credit spread.

With the increased volatility this year after such a long period without any significant declines has got some wondering if the market has peaked, or even about to crash. To get a better idea of what’s going on ‘under the hood’, we can study the high yield ‘junk credit’ market. High yield is also known as ‘junk credit’ for its higher risk of default and being ...

Rate 'Normalization'

This chart shows the ML investment grade corporate bond index yield vs the trailing SPX earnings yield (E/P ratio). From 2004-2007 the investment grade bond index and SPX earnings yield appear balanced near equal valuation. The red box from 2007 to 2009 marks the peak of the market to 2009 when the SPX sunk to recession lows. Note the following period of QE when ...

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Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index
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