dime

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Markets Allocation
31 % indices 25 % stocks 6 % forex 38 % other
Top Mentioned Symbols
VIX 10% | 2 TXCX 10% | 2 SPX 10% | 2 GLD 5% | 1
dime dime FEZ, D,
FEZ: FEZ Iron Fly
23 0 10
FEZ, D
FEZ Iron Fly

With the May 7 French election this Sunday the IV rank on FEZ today was decent at 46%. A 36/39/42 iron fly on June 16 expiry brought in $155 credit and $145 max loss. Breakevens at 37.45 and 40.55. By Monday morning I expect the IV to deflate quickly. After the first election round the IV in FEZ deflated 10 points when markets opened the next day. I'll ...

dime dime GLD, D, Long ,
GLD: Studying the 'measured move' in GLD
109 0 9
GLD, D Long
Studying the 'measured move' in GLD

The 123 at-the-money straddle for GLD on the May19 expiry was $2.22+$2.52=$4.74 at the close of Thursday's trading. The options market implies a 1 standard deviation range (68% probability) of approximately 118.26 - 127.74. The 16 delta option strikes are approximately 118 & 131 (slightly higher on the call strike). I see some resistance on GLD at 124.40 ...

dime dime SPX, W, Short ,
SPX: SPX weekly technical analysis
132 0 3
SPX, W Short
SPX weekly technical analysis

This longer term 'big picture' view of the index shows some interesting relationships. The 1000 week linear regression line is used for a long term estimate of the growth. The pitchfork connects the two previous highs and and the 1000 week linear regression. The 100 and 200 week medians match quite closely to the tines of the fork. From this longer term technical ...

dime dime TXCX, W, Short ,
TXCX: TSX Composite Index Analyst Forecast
108 1 3
TXCX, W Short
TSX Composite Index Analyst Forecast

Longer term into the end of next year the TSX is attractive for bulls. Currently the index may be as much as 6% over the average analyst year end target. Were the analysts too conservative in their 2016 year end forecast? With the fall historically being bearish for markets and oil, a significant pullback ahead seems reasonable. S&P/TSX Composite ...

dime dime DTB3, D, Short ,
DTB3: Rate hike indicator: the 3 month treasury
83 0 4
DTB3, D Short
Rate hike indicator: the 3 month treasury

The reason for Friday's massive market selling is said to be because of the Fed's message that the rate hike is coming. Seems that it may just be broad market selling after a period of complacent low VIX and broader overvaluation. For confirmation that the rate hike is coming I'll be watching the 3 month treasury rate closely for signs. A move from .30 to .55 ...

dime dime USDCNY, D, Short ,
USDCNY: Global Selloff: Keep your eye on USD/CNY
96 0 4
USDCNY, D Short
Global Selloff: Keep your eye on USD/CNY

If this game was baseball, three strikes would mean you're out. Could this be the start of a third wave of devaluation in the Chinese Yuan? Each time the Chinese Yuan devalues it just happens to coincide with a massive selloff in the SPX. 2015 was the first time that China reduced its stake in Treasuries on an annual basis in an attempt to support the yuan and ...

dime dime DVOL, D, Short ,
DVOL: NYSE down volume highest since 2011
112 0 4
DVOL, D Short
NYSE down volume highest since 2011

Could this bear party be just getting started? On Friday the NYSE down volume or DVOL rose to it's highest since 2011 And this is likely just the first day of a larger selloff. Whats your thoughts ? Please comment!

dime dime (FB+AMZN+NFLX+GOOGL)/4, D, Short ,
(FB+AMZN+NFLX+GOOGL)/4: Bulls getting bitten by the FANG trade
102 0 5
(FB+AMZN+NFLX+GOOGL)/4, D Short
Bulls getting bitten by the FANG trade

An average of the FANG stocks tells an interesting story and serves nicely as a bellwether of market sentiment and investor's appetite for speculation. These stocks on average are trading very high price relative to forward earnings. Recent selling action suggest the market is beginning to doubt that these high flying stocks can live up to the expectations for ...

dime dime FINRA/FNSQ_SPY, D, Short ,
FINRA/FNSQ_SPY: SPY short interest on the rise again
137 0 4
FINRA/FNSQ_SPY, D Short
SPY short interest on the rise again

Using data from Quandl we can view the FINRA short interst for SPY as a contrarian indication of market sentiment. When the 20 day average is at an extreme low it can signal a market peak. And when the 20 day average is an extreme high it can indicate a market low. As always your comments, insights and thoughts are appreciated! Best of luck!

dime dime US30, D,
US30: Will the DJIA hit the year end target?
74 0 2
US30, D
Will the DJIA hit the year end target?

Investing.com provides average year end forecast of 18050 for the DJIA based on the April poll of 25 analysts. How realistic is this target? The DJIA is currently trading at about 19x trailing earnings while the historical average of 15 is about 20% lower at around 14000 range. The market lows of last August and January of 15500 range was around 16.6 x trailing ...

dime dime SPY, D, Short ,
SPY: What's next for the SPX?
187 0 7
SPY, D Short
What's next for the SPX?

The SPX has been up and down more than a yo yo over the past year. Should traders and investors expect more of the same going forward? What's next for the SPX? The index has enjoyed a solid run up to this point since February lows gaining over 16%. In early May the 50/200 moving average 'golden cross' gave a bullish signal. Backtests show the 'golden cross' 4/5 ...

dime dime TXCX, W,
TXCX: What's next for the TSX Composite Index?
38 0 5
TXCX, W
What's next for the TSX Composite Index?

According to investing.com, the average of 27 analysts polled in April shows year end target forecast of 13550. Weekly RSI is approaching 60, with the upper weekly bollinger band starting to level off. Technically the chart appears to indicate the price trend is now towards the upper side of the trading range and offering a less attractive 'risk-reward' ratio ...

dime dime SPX500, D,
SPX500: 4 good reasons to expect selling soon:
567 1 19
SPX500, D
4 good reasons to expect selling soon:

There's a few signs right now pointing to a possible pullback in the market. Long traders and investors might wish to 'take some money off the table' to raise some cash just in case we are hit by another wave of selling soon. Reason #4 The 20 day Rate of Change is an interesting indicator. As seen marked by red arrows in the main chart above, each time it ...

dime dime TRIN, W, Long ,
TRIN: Weekly SPX analysis with TRIN and TICK
27 0 5
TRIN, W Long
Weekly SPX analysis with TRIN and TICK

- A TRIN reading of 2.0 or higher typically indicates a short-term bottom. Several examples of this are seen here going back to 2009. - In all previous examples the 2 week moving average of TRIN was above 2.0. Currently the 2 week MA of of TRIN has not yet reached greater than 2.0 - TRIN closed this week at 1.17. - A rising negative TICK appears to be an ...

dime dime DIA, W,
DIA: Price estimates for the DIA based on yield.
68 0 5
DIA, W
Price estimates for the DIA based on yield.

Is it possible we can project a price target for the DIA using dividend yield? Consider the market may be entering an era of reduce growth expectations going forward. Could the market price the DJIA based on yield similar to a bond? What would be a fair price? The following analysis uses a rather simplistic approach to estimate future value of the DIA using ...

dime dime GC1!, D, Long ,
GC1!: Time to pause after Gold's rapid rise in 2014?
235 0 8
GC1!, D Long
Time to pause after Gold's rapid rise in 2014?

Gold has shown tremendous strength so far in 2014. After breaking two significant resistance lines going back as far as 2012, gold has run up over 13% since the final days of 2013. And with the global monetary system printing over 10 Trillion since 2006, the long term price of gold is certain to continue rising long term. However, for the short term ahead ...

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Dollar Index
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JPMORGAN ALERIAN MLP INDEX ETN
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ISHARES MSCI UNITED KINGDOM ETF
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