Episode 3/11: US (SPX) Sectors Technical Analysis - 16th of July 2019
The Tech Sector has indeed outperformed almost all other sectors in the economy, since the 2009 financial collapse(approx. ~520% increase since the troughs of 2009).
However, with the new threats to global trade, the tech sector might be the first one to take the worse drop of all the sectors....
I heard some interesting commentary this week from the pros about watching for signs in the cyclical:defensive sector ratio.
I put together this chart using (XLK+XLI+XLB)/(XLP+XLU+XLV).
It is a composite of tech, industrials and materials indexes as a ratio to staples, utils and health sector indexes.
The chart ratio is about 1:1 right now.
In a late stage...
BOT VERTICAL XLK 100 20 SEP 19 79/78 PUT @.23, .77 max profit.
Risk to reward ratio just under 1:3
Gives a breakeven price target of 78.77 which is 3.4% lower from the spot price at the time of trade.
Longed the 30 delta, shorted the 25 delta.
It's a lower probability trade with under 30% estimated probability.
XLK seems to be hugging the high...
Not the most likely outcome.. but momentum is down.
Japan reports GDP on sunday night.. would a huge gap down drive risk off?
This ladies and gentlemen would be the dip to buy!
Get the deflationary risk out! Have the Fed raise rates! Then market can survive off liquidity!
XLK - Update to short trade thesis.
Trading XLK short as long as negative MACD and DMI divergences linger. No new high today as market rallies, big picture chart still consolidating. Seeing SOX lag today is a good sign for being short (XLK over 20% Semiconductor weighting)
Need a breakdown soon though
I've been targetting XLK as a short candidate. It's 35% MSFT and AAPL at the top, with a host of other old-school tech giants dominating its members - very limited in momentum, growth names like cloud, Saas, Internet which would add risk to a short in this market.
Also,I like the 20% semiconductor exposure. Semis have obviously been on fire as everyone was...
20/Mar/2019 12:49 PM
I would guess spy hourly catches cloud.
To Papai i said:
"if amd closes below $25 this week might I suggest taking some profit. Not saying to close position. - But I think you should have an if then plan. - If at the same time XLK were to get below 72 and close below I would personally consider that affirmation for profit taking
The XLKs gapped up after breaking through the $70 - 72 resistance zone and are very overbought. The last four times that they were this overbought – last July, August, October and again in February, a meaningful selloff followed. Look for some consolidation or short-term profit taking.
My definition of 'overbought' means that they are trading more than two...
The following are trades setup ideas in the daily chart for SPDR TRUST TECHNOLOGY SELECT: XLK
There are 2 distinctive dotted lines labelled as
1. AI's Resistance Line
2. AI's Support Line
If price action was below the AI Resistance line AND Retested below AND eventually closed below this line, the idea is to short and take profit at AI's Support line.