Not suggesting anyone do this, just be thoughts:
XLK has 20% AAPL shares in its holding. Everyone is expecting apple to beat earnings, but the historical forward 12 month PE and trailing PE are so out of whack. Unless they blow out the future expectations, I see no way a correction doesn't happen and it goes <$94 tomorrow alone. So I put a bet down on some $94 Feb...
I normally do not publish on such small time-scales. However, I really believe we are at a critical juncture. Therefore, if the rectangle I highlighted is indeed a bull trap, then the implications of a devastating cliff drop to follow are very real. Be careful out there!
I do see a crack in the charts that I'm watching. The failed retest does raise a concern. The negative rsi divergent is also a red flag. When you look at the weighted average I feel the importance of XLK's direction has a huge impact in overall market direction. Based on my limited chart reading I currently hold a bearish bias as long as the trendline holds as...
RSI shows bearish divergence on the price peaks
OBV show bearish divergence; in this last leg up the OBV has been declining.
Price was starting to form a bearish wedge but fell out quickly, bounced from 100 SMA.
Using Fib extension of 1.618 of an "ABC" pattern to project target, forming a double bottom from the most recent major correction. Duration of C leg is...
BOT VERTICAL XLK 100 20 SEP 19 79/78 PUT @.23, .77 max profit.
Risk to reward ratio just under 1:3
Gives a breakeven price target of 78.77 which is 3.4% lower from the spot price at the time of trade.
Longed the 30 delta, shorted the 25 delta.
It's a lower probability trade with under 30% estimated probability.
XLK seems to be hugging the high...
Episode 3/11: US (SPX) Sectors Technical Analysis - 16th of July 2019
The Tech Sector has indeed outperformed almost all other sectors in the economy, since the 2009 financial collapse(approx. ~520% increase since the troughs of 2009).
However, with the new threats to global trade, the tech sector might be the first one to take the worse drop of all the sectors....
I heard some interesting commentary this week from the pros about watching for signs in the cyclical:defensive sector ratio.
I put together this chart using (XLK+XLI+XLB)/(XLP+XLU+XLV).
It is a composite of tech, industrials and materials indexes as a ratio to staples, utils and health sector indexes.
The chart ratio is about 1:1 right now.
In a late stage...
Not the most likely outcome.. but momentum is down.
Japan reports GDP on sunday night.. would a huge gap down drive risk off?
This ladies and gentlemen would be the dip to buy!
Get the deflationary risk out! Have the Fed raise rates! Then market can survive off liquidity!