DXY, EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, USD/CAD
GENERAL ELECTRIC COMPANY, ISHARES MSCI EMERGING INDEX FUND, SPDR S&P 500, ADVANCED MICRO DEVICES, INC., SPDR SELECT SECTOR FUND - FINANCIAL, PROGREEN US, INC.
S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite, Dow 30, Nikkei 225, DAX Index, FTSE 100
Gold, Silver, Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Corn, Bitcoin
BTC/USD, ETH/USD, BCH/USD, XRP/USD, LTC/USD, ETC/USD
US 10Y, Euro Bund, Germany 10Y, Japan 10Y Yield, UK 10Y, India 10Y
Gold, Brent Oil, Crude Oil, CFDs on Natural Gas, Palladium, Silver
Ever since mid August, the US Dollar has maintained a much stronger correlation with the US yield curve. To illustrate this relationship, in the chart one can see the curve in blue and the DXY index in green, with the red lines the long and short-dated bond yields. As the focus shifts towards re-pricing a more aggressive Fed cycle, expect the US yield curve to ...
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You can expect at least a 10% drop for the US10Y in the coming weeks and months, but most likely stronger.
The bearish divergence is very strong and it is showing up on both the MACD and RSI. The decent has already started.
Looks like the entire conventional market is about to have a massive crash. Time to move to crypto.
Thanks a lot for reading.
As you see, on both graphs, we have an S&P 500 that is in trouble and also that is conditioned by the U.S. bond market Barometer, the U.S. bond yield rate 10 years. These two graphs are the symbols of a global finance, in loss of compass; That hold each other by one the end of the wire. The bond mass or the amount of bonds (T-Note 10 years) issued by the U.S. ...
The 10 year yield is currently hovering around the 3.2 to 3.3% support levels. I expect wave 5 to push past these levels and reach up to 3.75-3.80% in yield by August 2019 (or sooner). At that point I expect a new round of QE from the Fed.
This is part of a series of charts which I will posting for the reader to make up his/her mind based on the weight of the evidence.
Do note, these are weekly charts which means the implications of which will occur over the next 12, 18, 24, 36 months.
US 10yr Bonds attempting a successful break out after completing a 'W' formation. Bullish T.K cross is in play now accompanied by a bullish green kumo cloud. Gonna need a full retest for further solid confirmation of future price action direction.
US10Y US02Y Bond Spread
US10Y - Watch Resistance
The 10YR note has once again reached its resistance and it is coming to a decision whether it will break its resistance or break the trend line and continue to fall. Just keep an eye on what it does once it reaches the trend-line, it could bounce around the resistance and trend line. I think it will not break resistance only because it has been tested numerous ...
I expect both US10Y and DE10Y continue to rise.
But, the spread between the two countries may find resistance around 1.618 projection.
Under that scenario, I suspect EURUSD has bottomed at 1.1300 and could target 50% retracement of September 2018 high to Oct 2018 low at 1.1558.
Rates are breaking the resistance on very weak equities, seems like the support will hold. At the moment SMI seems to be pointing in the continuation of trend's direction. Watch the market sentiment. The bounce may signal the upward move. Sadly I missed the bounce off the EMA in the early hours. Now waiting for some confirmation in one or the other way.
On the surface yields and stocks are moving together, but recent carnage in stocks barely produced a yawn in the bond world. In recent history yields would have been plunging together with stocks, but this time there is no true flight to safety whatsoever (same story as gold in a way - but bonds where much more popular safe heaven in recent years then gold).
Yields have found resistance and support in the early market yesterday. Today they were poised to go higher but didn't brake through the tripple resistance, a little congestion in the range 3.117 - 3.127. Then again rates found support earlier today and maybe formed a new trendline up. Given current market conditions I don't see rates going much higher. At least ...
Rates fall below 3.100 and below all the supports. Currently continuing the downsloping trendline. The plunge found support at 3.076 and 3.06. We may expect a bounce up to 3.085 and then if the trend is broken, it will signal short term bullishness for stocks. Otherwise, it will be bearish for stocks and equities may enter a bear market.
Also have to be careful ...
10y goes through the resistance. Will pull stock higher probably (small divergence). At the same time, ES bounces after a false breakout. May head for 3.153 (Fibonacci approves)
Rates in a falling wedge. Look carefully for it as it will decide on the movement of stocks. So far pulling them upwards, but the resistance is very strong.
On a daily chart, there is no divergence with SMI.
Tough spot for yields, they will now decide on the next two hours of trading.