US Government Bonds 10 YR Yield US10Y

MrAndroid Pro+

Its quite a nice looking channel here on the 10 year yield chart. Probability of a bounce higher off this support level seems high indicating potentially a fall in bond prices in the short run.

SquishTrade Pro+ Updated 

The Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell spoke again today at a Brookings Institution event. His comments sparked a rally in markets (likely including short covering) that pushed the S&P 500 SP:SPX up about 122 points, or 3.10%, to close at 4080. The Nasdaq 100 NASDAQ:NDX rose 4.58% on the day, closing at 12,030. But the bond market is sending less sanguine...

SPY_Master Premium Updated 

The chart above shows the S&P 500 (SPX) relative to the price of the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond (1/US10Y). As you can see, when adjusted in this way, the S&P 500's decline in 2022 is no longer apparent. This could be a warning that further stock market decline is to come. Let's walk through why this may be. First, it is important to understand that an interest...

leandrosander_ Mod

The famous negative curve. This market concept is used when the US02Y or US03Y operate at higher levels than the US10Y, this behavior usually anticipates recessions, but why does this happen? The inversion of the yield curve distorts the expected functionality of the financial system. Under "normal" conditions, raising funds in the short term for investment in...

theagileagent Pro+

US10Y treasury yield minus US02Y treasury yield is an accurate predictor of impending economic recession. Here we compare the 10 Aug 2022 yield curve inversion low point to the low points in 2007 and 2000 that pre-dated the Great Recession and Dot Com stock market crashes. While a small inversion (below 0) does not always pre-date a recession, inversions as low as...

GammaRayGoated Premium

The current pitchfork trend is holding and I'm looking at the US10Y reverse at 3.332% this month. I'm also expecting the fed to over tighten or some other news event to drive the US10Y to 5.376% by June 2023. The nature of pitchforks are able to easily visualize the physics of the market and I'll do my best below to explain what I'm seeing. From a price action...

SquishTrade Pro+ Updated 

This post will provide a quick macro update concerning the yield curve inversion in US bond markets, which have often (though not always) been followed by a bear market in equities. Note the various yield curve inversions in the 10-2 Treasury yield. This compares the 10Y US Treasury yield with the 2Y US Treasury yield , and when the 2Y yield exceeds the 10Y...

Vixtine Pro+ Updated 

Do you really need to ask if interest rates have topped out? Head & Shoulders patterns at tops and bottoms are generally spot on...this Inverse H&S pattern occurred at a bottom, clearly broke out from the neckline and just wants 5%...at a minimum. "Don't fight the Fed" The Fed is not going to pivot to the downside anytime soon...why would they? What makes anyone...

OmarNAMOUCHI Updated 

The history of US. Oil/$ chart vs US02Y-US10Y chart (inverted) : show that the cude price is lagging the move of the US. spread between 2s/10s. "Is oil price is about to collaps ? or this time is diffrent because of OPEC+ cutts ?"

CMT_Association Premium

Big Four Overview: Part 1: Bonds I begin each year reviewing the long term technical positions of the "Big Four." 10 Year rates, SPX, Commodities, and the US Dollar. Since by profession I am a rates/credit portfolio manager and trader, I always start there. Granted, macro doesn’t typically impact shorter term (swing, daily and weekly) trading, having a framework...

TradingView Updated 

Hey everyone! 👋 This month, we wanted to explore the topic of interest rates; what they are, why they are important, and how you can use interest rate information in your trading. This is a topic that new traders typically gloss over when starting out, so we hope this is a helpful and actionable series for new people looking to learn more about macroeconomics and...

CMT_Association Premium

Before we get started on trendlines and channels I want to share a quick thought on the current market environment and how, at least in my opinion, the technical environment has changed. I believe that the weight of the evidence suggests that we are in the early to mid-stage of a primary bear market. If that is the case, momentum and sentiment extremes,...

brian7683

For DOT COM bubble, when yield inversion reached bottom, the top of the markets were 182 days later. IMO we'll reach bottom in January 2023 and markets will peak 182 days later, in September 2023.

syazwan001 Premium

Simple comparison between the two, we can see this correlation happened twice in recent times. With bond yield attempting making lower highs and lows, we can see US500 index are starting to rise up from the ashes. Targeting 4000 for US500, US10Y at 3% in a month or two, before some BS news gonna pop and kill the rally for the equities. Recession is inevitable...

TRADER-GOKU

Hello my Fellow TraderZ, Today this is not any Trade idea but a TUTORIAL on how to Trade the RANGE or the CHANNEL. This is simple, safe, profitable and straight forward Price Action strategy. Here we are taking the chart of US Govt. Bond 10Y-yield. This is the perfect setup of DECENDING CHANNEL on MONTHLY chart. No time bound you can trade at any TIMEFRAMES,...

WVS_Stockscreen Premium

US 10y yields have pulled back from over 4.3% to below 3.6% in a matter of weeks on the back of FED HOPIUM. We may get a slowing in rate rises but not due for a pause yet and way too soon to price in cuts. I see yields rebounding from around 3.50s% back towards/above 4% in coming weeks/months.

BrainRules Pro+ Updated 

Although the market is broken or almost broken right now (surprisingly TLT joined the crash 'party'), central banks will be forced to print more money (this is it's already happening in some countries) and to pivot. Nevertheless, based on the data, when the US10Y-US02Y reverse to the upside in the following weeks or months, there is still a strong possibility that...

ILuminosity Updated 

Crash Zone highlighted in Red. Fair warning is given as well; "Sell Sell Sell"