According to FedWatch Tool www.cmegroup.com there will be 2 or even 3 interest rate CUTS in late 2020.
It means the difference between US10-US02Y spread will move up - arrow on the plot. We can already see that values jumped to 1.63 and that will continue!
The vertical dashed lines indicate the official...
An insane move across Yields with historic outflows, I am expecting some relief over the coming weeks but we the lows are still open for a 5th wave sequence. This target will worryingly come into play at 0.20x! We have intentionally covered the Credit Spreads together here in order to see what is "challenging" in the US...
The 10-Year US Treasury Yield made new all-time lows this week. History was made as it went below 1%!
On TradingView, you can chart Government bond prices and bond yields around the world. Bond prices are important because they can highlight risk appetite and desire for yield. To get started with charting Government Bond Yields, search for these...
SPX and RUT (as a better US Stock Market Indicators - to me) seem are meeting their Bottom which I think those indexes are about to form a Bottom Patter.
US10Y may go lower but maybe will not reach below zero.
Strengthening DXY is more likely to fall since The Fed releases unlimited QE that should end US Dollar scarcity.
Overall, I believe Bear Market is on its...
www.RefiwithJustin.com if you own a home in Colorado or Texas!
Monthly view of the 10 year yield here.
Yield touched current levels in 2012 in anticipation of QE3.
Again in June 2016 over Brexit.
3rd time in August/September of trade war.
4th - Coronavirus? I would bet this is this what initiates the break down.
10 yr around 1% or lower coming soon?
We're closely watching the US10Y as it seems to dictate where the market goes. As we can see from the chart, the 10 YR is still trading inside the large down-channel, but was trending support line before breaking below 1.45 (major support) and quickly went all the way down to .36 before attempting to recover. The recovery has been weak so far as it was...
I can't believe what I am looking at, this is a Diamond Formation on U.S. Dollar Currency Index indicating that we may soon see USD to go way higher.
Currently I am shorting Chinese Yuan as they are likely in trouble with FX reserve due to recent halt on most industries, the country is extremely vulnerable under current situation.
BUT, this doesn't mean you...
Green arrows pointing at instances where the Yield Curve is Inverted. Info line shows how many days are in between the yield curve inversion and the beginning of a recession. As you can see, the yield curve inverted again in Aug 2019.
BOND MARKETS SAVANTS CLAIM THAT THE DEEPER THE YIELD-CURVE INVERSION, THE DEEPER THE RECESSION!
HOWEVER, VISIBLE INVERSIONS HAVE BEEN INCREASINGLY SHALLOW WHILE FOLLOWING RECESSIONS HAVE BEEN INCREASINGLY SEVERE, CULMINATING IN THE 2008 GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS!
BY THIS LOGIC, WILL THIS RECESSION BE MORE SEVERE THAN 2008?
The bond bubble has been a bubble that has been long withstanding since the dawn of the stock market and it may finally be on the verge of collapse. After all, the stock market bubble is collapsing and Bitcoin will collapse to under 1000.00 so why not pop all the bubbles at once?
While normally people equate yields rising (bonds falling) as a 'good thing', the...
Dow Jones dropped over 1200 points in one day, that's the biggest downward move ever happen.
Interest rates are going down FED Watch Tool shows over 99% that FED will cut at least 25pts.
More cuts will come soon, please check www.cmegroup.com
I follow this website and 3-5 days ago there was only 10% for a...
This is a Weekly Chart of the US10Y yield minus the US02Y yield. (This composite is sometimes referred to as the Yield Curve and if the spread or difference goes below 0.000, then that phenomena is termed to as Yield Curve Inversion).
This spread is widely followed worldwide as any number below or close to 0 tends to indicate impending slowdown in the US Economy,...