Last week price action triggered a pullback towards the former downtrend line which hold and which
should now be seen as the new support level.
The 50% Fibonacci retracement @ 1.7930 % has been filled for a second time in a row; there is only a "little" interrogation
mark about RSI price action which is not showing a convergence but rather a...
A reminder that falling bond yields are synonymous with higher bond prices while rising bond yields are synonymous with lower bond prices. In other words, a yield downtrend is the same thing as a bull market in bonds.
Last week we published macro overviews of rates and equities that should be referred to for context.
1) A weekly close above the 1.77% would...
Big Four Overview: Part 1: Bonds
I begin each year reviewing the long term technical positions of the "Big Four." 10 Year rates, SPX, Commodities, and the US Dollar. Since by profession I am a rates/credit portfolio manager and trader, I always start there. Granted, macro doesn’t typically impact shorter term (swing, daily and weekly) trading, having a framework...
The yield curve, calculated as the difference between 10-year and 2-year treasury yield, is a great indicator to watch to figure out Bitcoin's direction. When the yield curve steepens, it means economic growth and inflation and when it flattens, it means the reverse. Inflation was not a concern until last year after central banks across the world coordinated the...
Check out this correlation of BTC and Bonds on the daily. Bonds ALWAYS being ahead of BTC when it comes to pumps, while BTC dumps first. This makes me super confident, that BTC is on the edge of a massive Pump. I think bonds will pump up the trendline (related post) where they will get rejected.
Real yields (the difference between a nominal yield and inflation expectations) have broken out
This IS significant
But the question is... now what???
Is this feb 21 OR
TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK
According to FedWatch Tool www.cmegroup.com there will be 2 or even 3 interest rate CUTS in late 2020.
It means the difference between US10-US02Y spread will move up - arrow on the plot. We can already see that values jumped to 1.63 and that will continue!
The vertical dashed lines indicate the official...
Hello traders & investors!
As we look into the beginning of 2022 and use 10Y as our guide - expect enormous amount of fear coming to the markets/news channels/politician speeches..
I am expecting 40-50% correction on this 10 Year treasury. Cash will flow into bonds and DXY should strengthen at the same time too :)
That being said, I expect this to unfold in...
US10 Year still trending down against US 2 Year (candles). Until they bottom out around 1:1 and start to reverse, this bull market cycle will continue.
All of SPY's (orange line) most bullish periods in the last three decades were during down trends of the RSI on 10 year vs 2 year.
RSI on 10 Year vs 2 year is entering oversold territory now. Buy the dip on...
chaotic market huh?
To be honest... I think the current move of US-DOLLAR doesn`t make any sense.
I keep it simple and short, otherwise I`d have to break the mold.
The data are mixed but do overall show a slowdown in the economy but at the same time rising inflation.
Non-Farm-Payrolls: 199.000 less jobs than expected and the worst...