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US Government Bonds 10 YR Yield

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Why Bond Yields Jumped After NFPThink of Treasury yields as the market's prediction of where interest rates are headed. ### Before NFP The market was thinking: "The economy may be slowing, so the Fed could cut rates soon." If rates are expected to fall: * Existing bonds with higher rates become more valuable. * Investors buy bonds. * **Bond prices rise.** * **Yields fall.** ### After Strong NFP The jobs report said: > "The economy is still strong." Now traders think: * Fed may cut rates later than expected. * Interest rates could stay higher for longer. * New bonds issued in the future may offer higher yields. So investors don't want to pay as much for today's bonds. ### What happens mathematically? Suppose a bond pays **$40/year**. If investors pay **$1,000** for it: Yield = 40/1000 = 4% If investors sell it and the price drops to **$950**: Yield = 40/950 =approx 4.21% The payment didn't change. The **price fell**, so the **yield rose**. ### Why stocks care The 10-year Treasury is the "gravity setting" for markets. If the 10-year yield rises: * Borrowing gets more expensive. * Future earnings are worth less today. * Growth stocks like tech often get pressured. If the 10-year yield falls: * Money becomes cheaper. * Growth stocks usually get a boost. ### The shortcut for your daily trading When you see: **Strong NFP / Strong CPI / Strong Retail Sales** ➡️ Higher growth expectations ➡️ Fewer Fed cuts expected ➡️ Bond prices ↓ ➡️ Treasury yields ↑ ➡️ USD ↑ That chain reaction is one of the most important things to watch for SPY, QQQ, and options trading. 📊
TVC:US10YEducation
by samykoh
2
10Y/2Y Yield Spread Week of June 8thSee levels and key areas for this week: After you click the link, click “Grab this Chart” at the bottom/right of the chart or Load Live Bars on far middle-right. “Grab this Chart” opens a copy of the chart environment, but it doesn’t automatically save as a permanent layout in your dashboard. Once the chart opens, you need to manually save it as your own layout by clicking the cloud/save icon at the top of TradingView , “Save As”, name the layout. After that it will show up in your saved layouts/dashboard going forward.
TVC:US10Y
by ryani8877
US 10Y TREASURY: Macro drives yield bounce The U.S. 10-year Treasury yields were traded higher on Friday, moving back to 4,53% level. Market participants focused on labor-market indicators throughout the week, seeking clues about the future path of Federal Reserve policy. While softer economic data initially supported expectations for rate cuts, stronger-than-expected payroll figures released later reinforced the view that the Fed may keep interest rates elevated for longer, limiting the decline in yields and supporting the U.S. dollar. The lowest weekly level was at 4,42%, however, macro data and investor expectations pushed yields back to higher grounds. The week ahead brings few important macro data like Inflation rate in May, Producers Price Index in May and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment preliminary for June on Friday. It implies that higher volatility might continue on the US Treasury market. There is some probability for relaxation of yields back to 4,5%. However, if data continue to further support current investors sentiment, then there might also be some probability for even 4,6% level. At this point there is a lower probability for such a move.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
How Bond Yields Affect NASDAQ StocksMany traders watch only the stock chart, but sometimes the real pressure on the market comes from outside the chart. One important thing NASDAQ traders should understand is the relationship between bond yields and growth stocks. NASDAQ is heavily influenced by technology and growth companies. These companies are often valued based on future earnings. When bond yields rise, the market starts discounting those future earnings more aggressively. In simple words, higher yields can make future profits look less valuable today. That is why NASDAQ can sometimes struggle when yields are rising. Why does this happen? When the U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield rises, it usually means borrowing costs are becoming higher. Higher borrowing costs can create pressure on companies, especially growth companies that depend on expansion, investment, and future earnings expectations. At the same time, higher yields can make bonds more attractive compared to stocks. So some investors may reduce risk in equities and move toward safer yield-based assets. This does not mean NASDAQ must fall every time yields rise. Markets are not that simple. But rising yields can create pressure, especially when NASDAQ is already overextended or near resistance. How I use this as a trader I do not use bond yields as a direct buy or sell signal. Instead, I use them as background information. For example: If NASDAQ is breaking resistance while yields are falling, the breakout may have stronger support. But if NASDAQ is trying to move higher while yields are rising sharply, I become more careful. The stock chart may look bullish, but the macro pressure is still there. This helps me avoid blindly chasing moves. Simple way to understand it Rising yields = more pressure on growth stocks. Falling yields = more breathing room for growth stocks. But the final decision should still come from price action, structure, support, resistance, and risk management. What traders can watch 1. Is US10Y rising or falling? 2. Is NASDAQ near support or resistance? 3. Is price making higher highs or lower highs? 4. Is the move supported by volume and structure? 5. Is the trade still worth the risk? The main lesson is simple: Do not analyze NASDAQ alone. Sometimes the bond market gives an early warning before the stock chart fully reacts. For me, this is not about predicting every move perfectly. It is about understanding the environment before taking a trade. A trader who understands both charts and macro conditions can make better decisions than someone who only follows candles. Do you check bond yields before trading NASDAQ or tech stocks? Share your view below. I think this is one of the most useful macro relationships every stock trader should learn.
TVC:US10YEducation
by HelixDelta
US 10Y TREASURY: this week is all about jobsU.S. 10-year Treasury yields held relatively steady on Friday after retreating from recent highs, as easing tensions between the U.S. and Iran helped reduce inflation concerns tied to energy prices. Softer than expected inflation data, including the latest PCE report, also supported bond markets by reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve may avoid further rate hikes in the near term. At the same time, weaker first quarter GDP revisions pointed to slowing economic momentum, adding to demand for Treasuries. Investors are now shifting focus toward the upcoming jobs data for further clues on the Fed’s policy path. The week ahead brings the latest NFP, JOLTs and Unemployment data. Two weeks ago 10Y yields were standing around 4,68%, however, easing of inflation and positive developments in geopolitics brought yields down to 4,45% where they closed the week. The 4,4% could be shortly tested at the beginning of the week, while there is also some potential for a short reversal, somewhere around 4,5%. The highest volatility is expected around the publication of jobs data.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
US 10Y Yield Holds Above Key Moving Averages as Momentum CoolsThe US Government Bonds 10-Year Yield remains in an elevated structure on the daily chart, with price holding above both the 50-day SMA near 4.39% and the 200-day SMA near 4.20%. This keeps the broader technical backdrop constructive, as the shorter-term average continues to trend above the longer-term average following the earlier upside shift. Recent price action shows a pullback from the May high near the 4.70% area, followed by stabilization around the prior breakout zone near 4.45%. The latest candle has moved back above that level, suggesting buyers are attempting to defend former resistance as support. As long as yields remain above the rising 50-day SMA, the near-term structure may continue to lean bullish, though the recent rejection from the highs shows momentum has moderated. The MACD remains above the zero line but has crossed lower, reflecting cooling upside momentum after the strong May advance. This does not necessarily invalidate the broader trend, but it does suggest the market may be moving from impulse into consolidation. RSI has also eased from elevated territory and is now recovering toward the mid-to-upper range, indicating momentum is no longer stretched while still holding above the neutral zone. Overall, the chart presents a mildly bullish-to-neutral bias. The uptrend remains supported by price positioning above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, while MACD and RSI point to a short-term pause after a strong rally. A continued hold above the 4.45% region would support the case for consolidation at higher levels, while weakness back below the 50-day SMA would signal a deeper reset in momentum. -MW
TVC:US10Y
by FOREX.com
2Y and 10Y Yield Curve Mvt - June 8thSee levels and key areas for this week: After you click the link, click “Grab this Chart” at the bottom/right of the chart or Load Live Bars on far middle-right. “Grab this Chart” opens a copy of the chart environment, but it doesn’t automatically save as a permanent layout in your dashboard. Once the chart opens, you need to manually save it as your own layout by clicking the cloud/save icon at the top of TradingView , “Save As”, name the layout. After that it will show up in your saved layouts/dashboard going forward.
TVC:US10Y
by ryani8877
Global Capital Is Flowing Into BondsHello to all TradingView followers and traders 🌍📈 Hope your trades are always filled with profits, clarity, and smart decision-making 💚🔥 Today we’re taking a look at one of the most important indicators in the global financial system: US10Y (U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield) — a market that directly impacts stocks, gold, the U.S. dollar, and even crypto markets 🏦💵📊 Fundamental Overview of U.S. Treasury Yields 🧠🌎 The U.S. Treasury yield is considered one of the most important indicators of the American economy and usually rises when: 🔹 Interest rates remain elevated 📈 🔹 Inflation stays persistent 🔥 🔹 Investors expect tighter monetary policies 🏛️ 🔹 Or when global economic and geopolitical risks increase 🌍⚠️ Over the past few years, rising U.S. government debt, Federal Reserve policies, and inflation concerns have pushed investors back toward the Treasury market 👀📊 At current levels, Treasury yields have become significantly more attractive compared to previous years, which could encourage larger capital inflows into U.S. government bonds 💰🇺🇸 📌 If this flow of capital into Treasuries continues, we could potentially see even higher yields in the coming years from a long-term perspective 🚀📈 US10Y Technical Analysis 📊🔥 On the long-term and weekly chart, Treasury yields have entered a major bullish structure after years of consolidation and are now trading near a historical resistance zone ⚠️📈 As shown on the chart, the market is compressing between a rising dynamic support trendline and a key historical resistance area 🧠📊 Key Chart Observations 📌 🔹 The overall long-term trend remains bullish 🟢 🔹 The ascending dynamic trendline is still supporting price 📈 🔹 The historical resistance zone is a critical market level 🚨 🔹 Increasing momentum could lead to a breakout and continuation higher ⚡ Bullish Scenario 🚀📈 📍 If Treasury yields manage to break above the highlighted resistance zone, we could enter a new phase of yield expansion 🔥 🎯 Potential targets: 5% area Then potentially higher levels if inflationary pressures and restrictive Federal Reserve policies continue 📊🏦 📌 This scenario could create significant pressure on equities, gold, and other risk assets ⚠️ Corrective Scenario 📉 However, if the market fails to break the historical resistance zone, a correction toward lower support levels could still happen 🔄📉 In this case, price reaction to the ascending dynamic support trendline will likely determine the next major direction 🧠⚡ Final Thoughts 💡 Overall, considering the current global economic conditions, monetary policy environment, and technical structure, the long-term bias still leans toward higher Treasury yields 📈🇺🇸 And if capital continues flowing into the bond market, the possibility of seeing even higher yields over the coming years cannot be ignored 🚀🌎 Poll 📊🤔 What’s your opinion on US10Y? 👀 🔘 Treasury yields will break resistance and move higher 🚀 🔘 The market will enter a correction 📉 🔘 Yields will continue ranging in this zone 🔄 Make sure to share your thoughts in the comments 💬👇 ⚠️ Disclaimer This analysis reflects personal opinion only and is not financial advice or a buy/sell signal. Always do your own research and apply proper risk management before making any financial decision. 📌 #US10Y #Bonds #TreasuryYield #FederalReserve #MacroAnalysis #TechnicalAnalysis #TradingView #USBonds #InterestRates #Inflation #MarketAnalysis #PriceAction #Investing #MacroEconomics #BondMarket
TVC:US10YLong
by forexcitypro_leemeenal
US 10Y TREASURY: focused on PCE dataU.S. Treasury markets remained volatile this week, with the 10-year Treasury yield holding near multi-month highs. On Friday last week 10Y yields reached 4,6% levels, however, Monday and Tuesday this week impact strong further movement toward the upside. The highest weekly level was at 4,69%, while yields are closing the week at 4,57%. Investors continue to reassess the outlook for inflation, Federal Reserve policy, and economic growth. Persistent inflation concerns, supported by elevated oil prices and resilient economic data, reinforced expectations that the Fed could maintain higher interest rates for longer. Markets also reacted to uncertainty surrounding future government borrowing needs and fiscal spending, which continued to pressure longer-dated bond yields higher. Investors are now closely monitoring upcoming PCE inflation data and additional economic indicators for clearer signals on the direction of monetary policy and the near-term trend in Treasury yields. In this sense, the higher volatility might continue also in the week ahead. At this point there is equal probability for yield movements. On a longer time scale, if yields continue to hold levels above the 4,6%, then the next target might be 4,8%. However, for the week ahead testing of 4,5% is still quite a possible scenario for 10Y yield movements.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
1
US10Y Is Pushing Higher _ And Other Markets Feel ItToday I’m back with a fresh U.S. 10-Year Government Bond Yield ( TVC:US10 ) view. This index is a major macro gauge, and when it trends higher it can pressure risk assets like US equities, Gold ( OANDA:XAUUSD ), Silver ( OANDA:XAGUSD ), and crypto, especially Bitcoin ( BINANCE:BTCUSDT ). It’s worth keeping on your chart. In the previous analysis , the bullish path played out, and key targets were reached. Right now, US10Y has broken above its resistance line and is moving near a resistance zone(4.81%-4.62%). From an Elliott Wave perspective, a five-wave impulsive advance may be developing. I expect US10Y to challenge and potentially break that resistance zone(4.81%-4.62%); if momentum expands, higher targets become likely. First Target: 4.73% Second Target: 4.91% Stop Loss(SL): 4.43% ------------ How Rising 10-Year Bond Yields Influence Major Assets When 10-year government bond yields move higher, they tend to reshape investor behavior across markets: Bitcoin( BINANCE:BTCUSDT ) & Cryptocurrencies As yields climb, capital often rotates toward safer, income-generating assets like bonds. This shift can reduce demand for high-risk assets such as Bitcoin, potentially leading to price pressure. Gold( OANDA:XAUUSD ) Gold typically struggles in a rising-yield environment. Since it doesn’t generate income, higher bond yields increase the opportunity cost of holding gold, which can weigh on its price. U.S. Equities Stocks, especially growth and tech sectors, may face headwinds. Higher yields usually mean higher borrowing costs, which can compress margins and slow down expansion for companies reliant on financing. ------------ What’s your view on US10Y? Can it break the resistance zone(4.81%-4.62%) and weigh on other markets? 💡 Please respect each other's opinions and express agreement or disagreement politely. 📌 US 10-Year Government Bond Yield Analyze (US10Y%), Daily time frame. 🛑 Always set a Stop Loss(SL) for every position you open. ✅ This is just my idea; I’d love to see your thoughts too! 🔥 If you find it helpful, please BOOST this post and share it with your friends.
TVC:US10YLong
by pejman_zwin
5
US10Y bullish prediction is still intact from previous chart The united states 10year treasury at 4.627% in the fx window. The monthly chart shows enormous upswing potential based on the breakout of the monthly supply roof ,on technical i need a pull back as retest candle to the broken supply roof to go long and target 5.2% the flip side will be a break and close of the current ascending trendline and the target will be 3.3%-3.4% zone . the structure is showing me a bullish potential what is US10Y??? The 10-year Treasury note is a debt security issued by the U.S. government with a 10-year maturity, paying fixed interest semiannually. US10Y specifically denotes its current yield—the effective annual return if bought today—which fluctuates based on market demand. This yield serves as a "risk-free" rate benchmark, influencing mortgage rates, corporate bonds, and stock valuations. Rising yields often signal economic growth or inflation expectations, while falling yields may indicate recession fear. US10Y, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note, moves inversely to its price and is heavily influenced by prevailing interest rates set by the Federal Reserve and market expectations. Fed Policy Impact When the Fed raises short-term rates (like the federal funds rate) to combat inflation, new Treasuries offer higher coupons, causing existing bond prices to fall and US10Y yields to rise. Rate cuts have the opposite effect: lower yields on new issues boost demand for existing bonds, pushing US10Y down. if investors anticipate prolonged high rates, US10Y climbs as a risk premium builds in. Inflation plays a role too—higher inflation erodes fixed payments, demanding elevated yields Treasury notes and bonds are U.S. government debt securities backed by the full faith and credit of the U.S. government. Their yields represent the effective annual return investors earn based on current market prices. (1)Treasury Notes Treasury notes (T-notes) have maturities from 2 to 10 years and pay semiannual interest at a fixed coupon rate set at auction. Yield is the total return if held to maturity, rising when prices fall due to higher market rates. (2)Treasury Bonds Treasury bonds (T-bonds) mature in 20 or 30 years, also paying interest every six months. They typically offer higher yields than notes to compensate for longer-term interest rate and inflation risks. (3)Yield Mechanics Yield to maturity accounts for interest payments, price paid, and face value at maturity; it moves inversely to price—higher yields when bond prices drop amid rising rates. Current yield is simply annual interest divided by current price. Longer maturities generally yield more, except in inverted yield curves. (4)A coupon is the periodic interest payment made by a bond issuer to bondholders, typically expressed as a fixed annual percentage of the bond's face (par) value. It's set at issuance and paid semiannually until maturity. How It Works For a $1,000 bond with a 5% coupon rate, the annual coupon payment totals $50—often split into two $25 payments every six months. This differs from yield, which fluctuates with market prices; the coupon rate remains fixed. Relation to Treasuries In U.S. Treasury notes and bonds (like the US10Y), coupons provide steady income alongside principal repayment at maturity, making them low-risk investments. Zero-coupon bonds pay no coupons but sell at a discount for equivalent yield. Coupon rate and yield to maturity (YTM) both relate to bond returns but measure different aspects. Coupon Rate This is the fixed annual interest rate stated on the bond, expressed as a percentage of its face (par) value, paid periodically (often semiannually). It never changes over the bond's life; for a $1,000 bond with a 5% coupon, you get $50 yearly regardless of market price. Yield to Maturity YTM estimates the total annualized return if held to maturity, factoring in coupon payments, time to maturity, face value repayment, and current market price. It equals the coupon rate only when bought , otherwise, it adjusts for discounts (higher YTM) or premiums (lower YTM). (5)Zero-coupon bonds are debt securities that pay no periodic interest (coupons) during their term. Investors buy them at a deep discount to face value and receive the full par amount at maturity, with the difference representing compounded interest. How They Work Unlike regular coupon bonds, zeros provide a single lump-sum payment at maturity, often 10+ years out; for example, a $10,000 face value bond might cost $3,500 today. The yield comes from price appreciation, making them sensitive to interest rate changes. (6)Treasury STRIPS (Separate Trading of Registered Interest and Principal Securities) are common zeros created by stripping coupons from T-notes or bonds. They're ideal for long-term goals like retirement due to predictable payouts and low risk. HOW YIELD AFFECT STOCK MARKET. Rising bond yields, like US10Y, often pressure stock markets by increasing competition from "risk-free" fixed-income returns and raising corporate borrowing costs. Valuation Impact Higher yields discount future corporate earnings more heavily in models like DCF, lowering present values and stock prices—especially for growth stocks reliant on distant cash flows. Opportunity Cost Bonds become more attractive than equities for income, prompting investors to shift funds and sell stocks. Economic Effects Elevated yields signal tighter credit, slowing growth, squeezing profit margins, and hurting cyclical sectors. Exceptions If yields rise with strong growth (not inflation fears), stocks can rally; rapid yield spikes historically challenge equities this is just for educational purposes only,pls do your own. #us10y #us10 #bonds #yield .#bond yield.
TVC:US10YLong
by Shavyfxhub
US10Y Is Waking Up — Major Markets Could Feel It!Today, we’re taking a closer look at the U.S. 10-Year Government Bond Yield ( TVC:US10 ) on the daily timeframe. This metric reflects the return investors earn from holding 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds and serves as a key indicator of market sentiment toward the U.S. economy. Because of its importance, movements in this yield play a major role in shaping capital flows across different asset classes and influencing overall financial conditions. ------------ Let’s look at US10Y on the daily timeframe—come along with me! US10Y is currently near a support zone (4.24%-4.10%) and the 100_SMA (Weekly). It appears to be completing a pullback to the resistance lines it previously broke. From a classical technical perspective, US10Y has formed a Bullish Pennant Pattern. From an Elliott Wave perspective, it looks like US10Y has completed its main wave 4. With the bullish pennant pattern and a break of the resistance lines, we could see a new impulsive upward wave. I expect US10Y, after breaking the upper line of the falling wedge, to gain at least about 4.43%. First Target: 4.43% Second Target: Resistance zone(4.64%-4.50%) Stop Loss(SL): 4.15% ------------ How Rising 10-Year Bond Yields Influence Major Assets When 10-year government bond yields move higher, they tend to reshape investor behavior across markets: Bitcoin( BINANCE:BTCUSDT ) & Cryptocurrencies As yields climb, capital often rotates toward safer, income-generating assets like bonds. This shift can reduce demand for high-risk assets such as Bitcoin, potentially leading to price pressure. Gold( OANDA:XAUUSD ) Gold typically struggles in a rising yield environment. Since it doesn’t generate income, higher bond yields increase the opportunity cost of holding gold, which can weigh on its price. U.S. Equities Stocks, especially growth and tech sectors, may face headwinds. Higher yields usually mean higher borrowing costs, which can compress margins and slow down expansion for companies reliant on financing. ------------ What’s your view on US10Y? If US10Yr rises, could we see declines in gold, U.S. stock indices, and the cryptocurrency market? 💡 Please respect each other's opinions and express agreement or disagreement politely. 📌 US 10-Year Government Bond Yield Analyze (US10Y%), Daily time frame. 🛑 Always set a Stop Loss(SL) for every position you open. ✅ This is just my idea; I’d love to see your thoughts too! 🔥 If you find it helpful, please BOOST this post and share it with your friends.
TVC:US10YLong
by pejman_zwin
7
US10Y: BreakoutThe US10Y is breaking out of this multi-year consolidation pattern. If we break above the previous high at 5.00%, we could potentially see 7.50%. Using a measured move, 7.48% is possible in early 2028. With the stock market starting to show some erratic behavior, and my current belief that we'll see prices a lot lower Q3/Q4 of this year, it lines up that people will look to bonds instead of the stock market. Bonds will have a higher return, while stocks will continue to decline. The economy has just begun absorbing the impact of oil prices and sticky inflation. The Fed can either print money and kick the can down the road or they keep interest rates high and we enter a recession (which would be my base case).
TVC:US10YLong
by TheStockMan
US10Y Massive Weekly Close Breakout - 5% Next !?THE US10Y IS THE BEACON OF TRUTH IN FINANCIAL MARKETS. As predicted, the 10Y yield is back above 4.6% and have officially entered the danger zone. The US Guvament has to refinance ~$9.8T of debt this year with the biggest intra-year cliffs in February and August. I think we all remember what happened to CRYPTOCAP:BTC in February; don’t be surprised if we see the same in August. If yields stay elevated for the next couple of Weekly Closes outside of this massive 6-year bull pennant, then I very much expect the 10Y back at 5% within the next several months. Remember: Higher rates → more expensive mortgages, corporate loans, auto loans, etc. → less private borrowing and investment into the economy and risk assets.
TVC:US10Y
by jonnieking
US Bond Yields Break Ascending Broadening WedgeUS10Y — "US Bond Yields Break Out of Consolidation! A Fresh Alarm for Risk Assets?" Date: May 18, 2026 We need to take our eyes off stocks and crypto for a moment to analyze the global proxy for borrowing costs: the 10-Year US Treasury Yield (US10Y). The weekly chart is flashing a major warning signal that could soon rattle investment portfolios worldwide. Let’s break down what price patterns and time cycles are revealing. ________________________________________ 🔍 1. Technical Analysis • Basic Level: In the macro view, the US10Y continues to trade within a massive Ascending Broadening Wedge. The recent weekly close at 4.601% signals that bullish momentum has returned with significant strength. • Advanced Level: The latest weekly candle delivered a powerful breakout above the short-term resistance line (Inner Downtrend Line) at 4.500%. This breakout aligns perfectly with the Dotted Parabolic Arcs (representing Time Cycles), confirming that yields have bottomed out for this cycle. The yield is now turning upward into a fierce new wave (indicated by the blue arrow), mirroring past historical behavior (yellow arrow). ________________________________________ 📉 2. Trend Outlook • Short-to-Medium Term: Distinctly Bullish. The trend has shifted upward after unlocking the key psychological and technical resistance at 4.500%. • Long-Term: The macro structure remains an established Structural Uptrend, characterized by a series of higher lows well above the primary support line. ________________________________________ 💼 3. Trading & Portfolio Strategy • For Yield Speculators: Focus on Long Yield / Short Bond Price positions to ride the momentum above 4.500%, or look to enter on a throwback (retest of support). • For Overall Portfolios: Historically, a surging US10Y exerts heavy pressure on risk assets, particularly high-growth tech stocks and Gold. Investors should exercise extreme caution and avoid chasing rallies in Big Cap equities while yields hover above 4.601%. ________________________________________ 🎯 4. Key Targets (Yield %) Level Type Yield Target Technical Description First Resistance 4.750% Previous short-term swing high Major Resistance 5.000% - 5.150% Cycle target zone (apex of the blue arrow / upper boundary of the Broadening Wedge) First Support 4.500% Breakout level (former resistance turned support) Structural Support 3.900% - 4.000% Primary long-term ascending support line ________________________________________ 🛑 5. Stop Loss For yield bulls, the ultimate invalidation level (Structural Stop) is a weekly close below 4.350%. Dropping below this level would confirm a False Breakout and drag the yield back into a deep consolidation phase. ________________________________________ 🔄 6. Scenarios & Market Probabilities • Rally to 5.000%+ (70% Probability): This is the highly probable base case. The latest weekly candle closed as a strong, solid green body above 4.500%, confirming the cyclical reversal. • Minor Pullback / Range-bound (30% Probability): Yields may temporarily retest the 4.500% support floor before accumulating enough energy to resume the uptrend. • Invalidation Condition: The bullish outlook will be completely nullified if the yield plunges and registers a weekly close below the critical structural support at 4.000%. ________________________________________ 📝 Market Summary The 10-Year US Treasury Yield (US10Y) has made its choice, decisively breaching the 4.500% barrier. This price action perfectly validates our primary time cycle, sending a clear warning that global capital costs are about to get more expensive. With the next destination sitting at the psychological 5.000% milestone, investors should actively rebalance their asset allocation. Staying flexible will be key to weathering the volatility expected across risk assets during the second half of 2026. Disclaimer: This analysis is based on technical indicators and historical data. Investors should always cross-reference technical setups with incoming inflation data and Federal Reserve policy decisions before making investment choices.
TVC:US10YLong
by Teerasak_Tanavarakul