Goose96

Goose96

The rand is enjoying its post-election optimism and the broad-based decline in the dollar is adding strength to the currents. A break below the 18.12 support will confirm the move lower towards 17.86. The fact that the pair tested, but couldn’t hold, levels above the 61.8% Fibo at 18.56 and the 50-day MA at 18.38 is rand positive coupled with the fact that...

Goose96

The US dollar sold off aggressively last week while Americans were celebrating their independence. The week started with extremely weak manufacturing and non-manufacturing results from the US for the month of June followed by the FOMC meeting minutes which was dominated by the Feds acknowledgment that price pressures were easing before the June non-farm payrolls...

Goose96

Just an extension of my previous idea. Still expecting another wave higher after the support at 104 held its ground.

Goose96 Updated 

The volatility of the rand is forcing us to “when in doubt zoom out.” Last week the rand managed to pull the pair to a low of 18.47 but the blue support range held its ground. The two critical rates to watch now is the 200-day MA support at 18.78 and the 61.8% Fibo resistance rate of 18.87. A break above 18.87 will allow the pair to test levels above the blue...

Goose96

The Fed’s rate decision and FOMC statement will thus take center stage this week but the latest US CPI figures for the month of May will also be released along with the US 10-year and 30-year bond auctions. The 200-day MA of 4.35% has held support and another Fed pause will allow yields to rise and re-test levels above 4.50%

Goose96

The DXY caught support off of the red support range on the 50% Fibo retracement level at 103.97. A stronger or in line with expectations US CPI this week coupled with the Fed maintaining the federal funds rate at 5.50% will allow the DXY to break above the 50-day MA rate of 105.09 and move higher towards the first resistance level of 105.96. Over the longer term a...

Goose96

The DXY caught support off of the red support range on the 50% Fibo retracement level at 103.97. A stronger or in line with expectations US CPI this week coupled with the Fed maintaining the federal funds rate at 5.50% will allow the DXY to break above the 50-day MA rate of 105.09 and move higher towards the first resistance level of 105.96. Over the longer term a...

Goose96

Similarly to the DXY, the US 10-year yield is showing signs of also setting up for another leg higher which will allow yields to climb back towards the 5.00% handle. The mainstream narrative however is that yields has peaked but another fresh US bond sell-off sparked by global geopolitical tension could easily allow yields to spike higher.

Goose96

The broad based dollar index has held up well and the 200-day MA support level at 104.43 is keeping the dollar from further depreciation. The DXY is looking set to make another leg higher if the ECB serve markets with a rate cut this week. The ECB, along with the Bank of England, has been very outspoken recently that they plan to diverge from the Fed’s monetary...

Goose96

The rand managed a strong recovery to a low of 18.02 in the lead up to the national elections. This move was largely due to the strong precious metal prices, particularly platinum, and the dollar which remained relatively range bound. The critical resistance levels to watch are the 200-day MA at 18.77 and the 61.8% Fibo retracement rate of 18.87 (very satisfying...

Goose96

The rand has surpassed my expectations recently and reminded me that the USDZAR pair tends to take the stairs up, and the elevator down. The risk-on swing last week allowed the rand to keep the pair below the 200-day MA resistance rate of 18.80 which saw the pair fall back onto the psychological rate of 18.50. The downside break out of the blue wedge thus...

Goose96

The risk on trade allowed equities to bounce off of their recent lows which saw the SPX test the 50-day MA resistance level of $5,130. A failed break above this resistance rate will allow the index to fall further onto the 38.2% fibo retracement level of $4,822.

Goose96

The critical support level to watch here is the 50-day MA at 4.38%, as a failed break below this yield will allow yields to spike to 5% off the back of a continued sell-off in US long-term paper despite the Feds efforts to aid the US bond market. Keep an eye on the tail in this week’s US 10-year note auction! The markets were hit by a dovish FOMC statement last...

Goose96

The recent weak US data and last week’s dovish FOMC statement has seen the DXY ease and the index has pulled back (4th wave). The support level to watch now is the 50-day MA level of 104.54 and the 61.8% fibo retracement of 104.77. A failed break below this support range will allow the DXY to complete the 5-wave impulse on the chart which will take the DXY to...

Goose96 Updated 

The rand managed to stage an impressive recovery last week off the back of the increased risk on investor sentiment which allowed the rand to pull the pair below the 50-day and 200-day MA support rates. I did not expect the rand to pull the pair onto the upward blue trend line but the month-end flows helped nudge the rand a further than expected. This pair has...

Goose96

Brent crude oil has caught strong support off the 50-day MA of $85.50 pb and the move towards $93.40 pb is now firmly on the cards.

Goose96

The DXY is pulling back ahead of the FOMC statement and the US non-farm payrolls. The key support levels to watch are at 105.11 and 104.77. A failed break below this support range will allow the DXY to climb back to the 2023 high of 107.35. The main drivers behind the DXY pullback are the drop in US 10year yields and the appreciation of the battered Yen.

Goose96

The early morning Asian sessions saw some peculiar moves with the USDJPY pair falling to a low of 154.56. There are rumors of possible FX intervention from BoJ to save their vulnerable Yen. Simultaneously, there was strong buying pressure for the US 10year which is pulling yields down aggressively. The US 10-year yield is showing signs of pulling back following...