Folks know how I feel about very long term (multi year/decade+) outlook for inflation and yields - they are going higher. And I have called for higher yields (and spreads) and thus dollar so far this year. BUT BUT BUT The yield spread chart is suggesting a potential divergent high which could have MAJOR implications across asset markets. Is it fortelling a turn...
German DAX has pulled back to the 50d sma and 38% retrace of the move up of the last few months (since last time it touched 50d sma). Looks like we may get another leg higher despite the clear lack of supportive fundamentals/geopolitics. Think we see 18600-19000 before a bigger effort to correct. Long 17800 tgt 18800 wroong below 17400.
Uranium got the pullback into early Q2 into the 80-85$ zone I was looking for and now looks like it is ready to head higher once again to 100$+ and retest the $105 area and likely ne highs in coming weeks/months.
The cocoa market is in the mania phase. Shorted at 10,000 in small size (2%), just one small position in the macro book, can only lose 2% even if it doubles in value from here! Caveat emptor. Target much lower over coming months.
Folks know my opinion on inflation being in a generational bull market. Generically speaking I am looking for thematic trades around this when they present and I have been long some metals/miners. Copper looks to be headed higher in the weeks ahead despite the pattern portraying a series of a-b-c moves.
Early forecast for 2024, SILVER will be MUCH HIGHER. In recent weeks I have started to accumulate SILVER and a number of precious metals mining stocks. I believe both will be going much higher over the net year+. Currently $23+ I believe we shall see $26+ by early 2024 followed by $30+ over coming quarters.
It's reasonably well appreciated that the biggest component of the dollar index DXY is the euro. Therefore when trying toanalyse the future direction of the Dollar one needs to consider what is happening to the spread between yields in the two main economic areas (US and Germany as a proxy). If we look at US10Y-DE10Y historically we can see, as might be expected,...
shorted TSLA 250 Stop 5% above looking for 10-20% downside from this level back towards 200
This is something I look at in terms of health (outlook) for PM mining stocks (see GDX and GDXJ etfs) Mining stocks have been battered in recent times but just when everyone gives up on them is probably a decent contrarian time to start looking for higher prices the ratio of small miners/big miners looks like it is about to break out a little higher which...
I'm very confident that for long term real money investors (or long time horizon long/short) a switch/rotation now from tech stonks into oils will pay off massively over the next 1 to 2 years (100% relative basis)
I'd be very surprised if USD/JPY does not have another go at trying to break through 152 again in the coming days/weeks. It tends to be attracted by big round numbers hence the vacillation around 150 currently. Above 152 there isn't really much resistance until the next round number at 160.
The Gold/Silver rato chart is breaking down = Silver outperforming This has historically been correlated to precious metals in general performing well (bullish) and also bodes well for continued strength in mining stocks in the period ahead
Small caps have under performed for 20 years and will continue to do so. Don't take the bait that "they're cheap, Fed rate cuts blah blah".
This has an inevitability surrounding it. DB commodity index. Headed higher (ditto inflation and yields).
I wam showing another (weekly t/f) version of the chart I published weeks ago on the driver for USD bs the Euro - yield spread between US10Y and German10Y. There is NOTHING bearish about this chart. Price (spread) breaking higher. Indicators as positive as you like. Dollar higher.
I have to chuckle at all the talking head clowns/clownettes that go on Constant Nasdaq Bullish charlatan channel and pump small caps and have been telling us the last few months how small caps are outperforming..... NOT !! Nasdaq going to continue to beat small caps in the near term
Not many folks are looking for this as everyone seems to be calling for bonds to rally but I think there is a pretty good chance we get a flat 2's-10's sometime during Q2 Historically not a great omen for stonks when the curve disinverts
I have been long this pairs trade for about 6 weeks and it's made +60% and reached the top of my target band so taking profit here.