This is the spike in volatility I have been anticipating for a while (you can never pinpoint exact event). Can easily see a 50+ print on VIX this week. YOU MUST WAIT for the spike top before attempting to sell vol/buy risk assets but it should present a good opportunity.
Most folks know my view on inflation and yields over a very long term horizon years++ (they are going HIGHER) BUT in the short/med term we could be looking at a RALLY in bonds (lower yields) in the weeks ahead. LONG TLT @ 90.80 with a stop below 88.80 and a target of 100. Reward/Risk 5:1
Still viewing Silver as long term higher. Added to portfolio posn today at 29.95.
Today could (repeat COULD - not confirmed) be the start of a turn for a period of small cap outperformance vs large cap tech. Came within 5% of my long term target so QQQ/IWM could still just be just pausing before one more leg higher BUT there could be a big rotation starting!
I have chastised small cap analysts and FURUs over many years for their propensity to lure investors into smaller names vs large cap tech because the overall market is bullish and higher beta smaller stocks should outperform. They haven't. As my chart clearly shows it's been one way traffic for the last 22 years since the lows following the bursting of the dotcom...
Folks that know me know that I don't trust crypto. I don't understand or fully believe its "use" case bull hypothesis. But I do believe we are in the early innings of a generational bull market for inflation. In my mind BTC is simply another risk asset and as such an "inflation hedge" or "fiat decline hedge". In that regard I may have underestimated the ability...
I have been bullish USD/JPY for a long time in the macro portfolio. We are now reaching levels last seen at the end of 1986 (the year before I started trading it) so even I haven't seen these levels (above 160.40) LOL! We are however way overdue a correction/consolidation. I am not advocating going short, just I would not be going long/adding at these levels, the...
For those "economists" out there who couldn't forecast the weather for last week let alone anything important ahead of time (especially the special data dependent forecaster lol) and for anyone unsure about where prices (for just about everything) are headed over coming years/decade+. Here's a clue. Higher.
This is where I think we are in the very long term cycle for semiconductors since the 2008 bear market lows. It's a bull market. And we're only about half way through...... May be due a 10%-15% correction over coming months but ultimately headed higher (a lot higher).
Folks have been asking about my view on BTC for the coming months. We are still in the early innings of a generational bull market for inflation. This is bullish for risk assets including BTC. I see $80k-$90k as possible in the coming 6 months (maybe after a bit more consolidation). And of course if it get's a head of steam then the BIG ROUND NUMBER will be a...
Folks have been asking about my view on Gold for the coming months. We are still in the early innings of a generational bull market for inflation. This is bullish for risk assets including Gold. I see $2850 as possible in the coming 6-12 months.
Chart of GDX (precious metals miners) vs SPY (SP500). Looks to me like we are prepping to RIP higher in coming months. Be ready.
Small caps have under performed for 20 years and will continue to do so. Don't take the bait that "they're cheap, Fed rate cuts blah blah".
Not many folks are looking for this as everyone seems to be calling for bonds to rally but I think there is a pretty good chance we get a flat 2's-10's sometime during Q2 Historically not a great omen for stonks when the curve disinverts
I've taken profits on my final NVDA long piece today and opted to go short with a tight stop as I think the turn could be near at hand (post split). Long from 800 exited final piece at 1240. New posn Short 1240 Stop 1280 Target 1000 Return/Risk 3:1
Similar to the patterns playing out elsewhere, the "inflation trade" is still supportive of hard assets (and miners). GDX has had a nice pullback into 38% and move ave support. I've been long for quite a long time but those looking to get some exposure can use this as an opportunity. Long 34, Stop 32, Trgt 40 Return/Risk = 3:1
Having rode the last leg higher in Copper nicely it has now pulled back into interesting levels again. If you are believer in the inflation trade (I am) then these sorts of pullbacks present decent opportunities to get back on board. Long 4.53 Stop 4.28 Tgt 5.20+ Rtn/Risk 3:1
I 'm looking at the potential "false break" of the uptrend channel (and triangle pattern) on the 4H chart which would be typical market shenanigans for a Friday afternoon.... If I'm right then BTC is going to rally directly from here. You can but 67000 with a stop 65000 and target 75000+ for a 4/1 reward/risk coming days/weeks