About meM.Eng from a leading Univ, after 35 yrs experience now semi retired ex inv bank prop trader & HF manager, mostly global macro and US long/short, managing own money & advising some top 5 HF & pvt equity, views not invest recommendations
Longer term weekly chart of China A50 stock index. Looks to be a fairly textbook pullback (abc) to support levels which were prior resistance in 2015 and 2019 before breakout higher. Given RSI also bottoming it looks like the support level will hold and enable another leg higher over coming 12-24 months.
German 10yr yields which have been negative yielding for much of the last few years continue to RISE and just hit a two year high (last seen May 2019).
They are set to go even higher in coming weeks/months and should be back in positive yield territory shortly.
Charts suggest German 10yr yields could rise to +0.50% in 2021. Great news finally for...
Update on US long end rates view. YCC or not this is what I think could happen over next 2 years. When I was on the fixed income trading desk at Lehman in '88 we had short end paper that yielded double digits....and given the amount of fiat being printed this could be just the start of the back up in yields
Falls over last 36 hours look kind of scary but put in context of the run up totally normal.
I am not a crypto permabull or apostle and view this as just another vehicle to express a view on macro themes.
Pullback to $42k could provide an interesting area of support for possible next leg higher.
I am calling a top in AAPL on the NEXT high above 446.5 (currently 445).
I am a seller above 447 stop at 467 looking for a return to 360 (yes 360) and will likely have to adjust at end August once the stock splits 1-4
Having been a bear for quite a while I now see value beginning to emerge in Us stocks despite all the negative virus headlines about to hit
Entering 50%-60% retracement zone of the 2009 bull market
Extreme readings on sentiment/RSI etc
US 30yr bonds have seen a year's worth of action in the space of a month
From 1.90% to below 0.90% to back to 1.90%
In my opinion this reversal could be key for the bond bull market since the 1980s
If we get a close above 2.10% in 30yr yields I think we have seen a generational low this month
Copper reached my long held target below 2.22 and now waiting for signs of a bottom/reversal for longer term rebound (green wave C)
Confluence of supports at 2.20 zone, channel, c/y=a/w and where wave e (blue) of bigger triangle wave B (green) is 78% Fib retrace of length of wave d (blue) of triangle.
Not confirmed until get a reversal and wave e still has scope...
Today we have see a continuation of the dramatic slide in the DAX into CRITICAL 8100-8600 support zone.
This is a confluence of long term support and target zone for wace c/y (where it equals 1.618 times wave a/w) of Wave 4) PINK
If the very long term trend is to remain up the market must hold this zone