About meM.Eng from a leading Univ, after 35 yrs experience now semi retired ex inv bank prop trader & HF manager, mostly global macro and US long/short, managing own money & advising some top 5 HF & pvt equity, views not invest recommendations
US 30yr bonds have seen a year's worth of action in the space of a month
From 1.90% to below 0.90% to back to 1.90%
In my opinion this reversal could be key for the bond bull market since the 1980s
If we get a close above 2.10% in 30yr yields I think we have seen a generational low this month
Update on US long end rates view. YCC or not this is what I think could happen over next 2 years. When I was on the fixed income trading desk at Lehman in '88 we had short end paper that yielded double digits....and given the amount of fiat being printed this could be just the start of the back up in yields
Hate to disappoint you fixed income bulls
We are in the early stages of a secular bull market for yields (started 2020) as inflation will prove persistently bad
There may be pullbacks along the way but the path is higher
Long bond yield>10>50>200 ma
I believe the stars are aligning for a decent med term short for stonks.
Fundamentals are poor - inflation and rates higher for longer (not factored into earnings yet).
Sentiment is extreme - note recent sentiment surveys all extremely bullish (greed) contrary to market perception.
Bears have been capitulating - note short covering rallies (stopped out) in...
I believe the stars are aligning for a decent med term short for stonks
Fundamentals are poor - inflation and rates higher for longer (not factored into earnings yet)
Sentiment is extreme - note recent sentiment surveys all extremely bullish (greed) contrary to market perception
Bears have been capitulating - note short covering rallies (stopped out) in heavily...
Today we have see a continuation of the dramatic slide in the DAX into CRITICAL 8100-8600 support zone.
This is a confluence of long term support and target zone for wace c/y (where it equals 1.618 times wave a/w) of Wave 4) PINK
If the very long term trend is to remain up the market must hold this zone
Russell has been the weakest part of the market for a while.
Delicately poised, has held above key support 1700 for the last 10 months.
If that goes, you could see -10% (1520) easily and quickly.
Down move in DXY looks to have just about run its course. Round number target of 100 would have been nice but we may have to settle for 101.xx
Looking for a potential 5% + rebound/retrace higher over coming weeks.