US short term funding requirements (33% of existing debt to mature next year) + a clean unbroken trend seems to head the 10 yr yield to 5.2%. This view doesn't constitute investment advice.
Comment:
5.2% creates a 30 yr old resistance, so it will be interesting the speed, rate of change and "how it gets there" (the shape it creates), to see where it is headed after.
Comment:
5.2% has been the level where things get interesting: being the double top in the GFC, a strong support from 1993 to 2000, where it became the top.
US rates will continue their long term way upwards until something fundamental, like a recession, ends this trend and forces policy in the opposite direction.
US rates will continue their long term way upwards until something fundamental, like a recession, ends this trend and forces policy in the opposite direction.