arigolden

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Joined Canada
Markets Allocation
25 % stocks 8 % forex 8 % commodities 58 % other
Top Mentioned Symbols
US10Y 25% | 3 US02Y 16% | 2 FXI 8% | 1 UUP 8% | 1
81 0 1
US02Y, 1D
The 2y yield at 3% is more important than the 10y yield at 3%...

Charting the LOG of the US 2y yield (blue line) compared to that of the US 10y yield (red line) here shows the heavy move up in the 2y compared to the 10y. This, in my opinion, is very important because a 2y yield at or above 3% will likely drive short-medium term market reaction. Some of my thoughts on the 2y, 5y, and 10y points of the curve for context: • The ...

arigolden arigolden US02Y, D, Short ,
86 1 2
US02Y, D Short
German 2y Yield to go higher (US2Y vs GE2Y yield sprd too wide?)

US 2y yield (blue line) vs GER 2y yield (red line)...The spread is immensely wide as the FED has been in a hiking phase wile the ECB still continues to apply a "whatever-it-takes policy". Eventually the ECB policy will have to roll back and front-end yields will react by backing up. I believe the German 2y yield will eventually move higher and lead the ...

arigolden arigolden US10Y, 60, Short ,
222 2 5
US10Y, 60 Short
US10y De-correlation with SPX (Yield > 2.8% is SPX danger-zone?)

The red rectangle highlights the current Yield-Red-Zone for equities. Initially, as the US10y yield (blue line) moved above 2.6% starting at the vertical yellow line, the SPX started to move sideways. Yields continued higher putting a cap on equities and once the 10y yield moved past 2.8% (the start of the Yield-Red-Zone), equities began to falter and ...

arigolden arigolden US30Y-US05Y, 1D, Short ,
309 0 6
US30Y-US05Y, 1D Short
US Treasury 5s30s and 10s30s Curve - Flat Curve Predictions?

The current trajectory of the flattening in the US Treasury 5s30s curve (30y yield minus 5y yield) and the 10s30s curve (30y yield minus 10y yield) illustrates a potential for the following: 1) A flat curve by July 2018 if the flattening trajectory continues (green lines); 2)A flat curve by Nov 2018 if we plot the trajectory from the recent steepening of the ...

288 1 9
US10Y, 1D
US10y Yield vs. Dollar Index (DXY) - a Mean Reversion coming?

Most textbooks will tell you that a higher yield attracts capital inflows and therefore demand for that currency increases and in turn, increases the value of that currency. This chart shows exactly the opposite happening with the US10y yield and the US dollar going in opposite directions. Some can argue that this is the intention of the Trump administration to ...

arigolden arigolden US10Y, D, Short ,
152 3 4
US10Y, D Short
US10y to Stay Above 2.4% With a Year-end Target of >=2.5%

I see strong of support for the 10y at just above the key 2.40% level: -Current 10y levels have finally crossed over the trend-line going back to July – strong near-term indicator is broken which suggests 10y support at/above 2.40%. -Interestingly, the ~2.40% yield level is the .618 Fibonacci level which we have also crossed over – this is a key Fib level which ...

72 0 4
WI1!, D
WTI Crude Oil - Oversold? Technically speaking, yes...

Based 80% on technicals and 20% on fundamentals, oil looks quite oversold: Technicals: Oil has now traded below RSI 30 mark (last few times it reached these levels it bounced back on oversold levels) and is finding support and flirting with its 1 year trend line. Fundamentals: Oil consumption continues to increase globally, even within the context of extra ...

arigolden arigolden DGS10, W, Long ,
22 0 1
DGS10, W Long
Sell Sept 10 year treasury futures - 10yr yields to rally

Sell Sept 10yr Treasury futures, given that Fed policy (Yellen) is still adamant about a rate hike. The point here is not IF the Fed will raise rates but that the Fed needs to introduce some form of normalization into the market through a rate hike - zero rates when the US paper economy points to strength signals that near zero rates are absolutely not necessary ...

arigolden arigolden FEYE, W, Long ,
20 0 1
FEYE, W Long
Momentum and Swing trading cyber security through FireEye.

Like this name more than CyberArk. Seems to be more predictable. With the recent zerohedge.com, wsj.com, united and nyse technology-related issues the corporate demand for IT security hardware, software, and services should continue to be strong with well-publicized hacks/breaches essentially becoming a very real risk.

arigolden arigolden UUP, M, Long ,
14 0 0
UUP, M Long
US dollar safe-haven USDCAD long short-term bull

US Dollar long for the last year. Still believe this trade has juice and should continue: bullish short-term supported by a simple idea of investors flocking into safe haven currencies and further supported by more short-term weakness in Canada: 4 months of negative GDP, talks of a looming recession, lower crude with a wider than anticipated impact and a very hot ...

arigolden arigolden FXI, W, Long ,
16 0 0
FXI, W Long
China FXI trade

China's -32% drop seems to hint at the market letting out steam with a government that has shown us time and again over the last few weeks that it will do anything to keep the bull market running. Seems like all have bottomed out (or are close to a bottom) -HSCEI Index (down -21% in 1 month) -CSI 300 (down 30% in 1 month) -Shanghai Composite (down -32% in 1 ...

arigolden arigolden CHFCAD, 240, Long ,
12 0 0
CHFCAD, 240 Long
CHF safe haven

Greece is not the real risk. The real risk is the EU losing further members and experiencing further defaults down the line which has fully exposed the theoretically sound idea of the Euro and the Eurozone experiment as being unsustainable from a pragmatic view. With investors rattled globally, they will pile into safe-haven currencies. CHFCAD looks attractive ...

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US10Y
US GOVERNMENT BONDS 10 YR YIELD
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