ChartArt

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About me "Speculation is most dangerous when it looks easiest." - Warren Buffett ///// "I believe the market prices are always wrong in the sense that they present a biased view of the future.” - George Soros
Joined Wonderland
'Wave 1' to 'Wave c' trader, trying to reduce stress by becoming a 'Wave 3' to 'Wave 5' trader
Markets Allocation
64 % cryptocurrency 9 % indices 4 % stocks 23 % other
Top Mentioned Symbols
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD 31% | 107 SPX 20% | 69 BITFINEX:BTCUSD 12% | 43 BTCCNY 8% | 29
ChartArt ChartArt SPX, D, Short ,
SPX: S&P 500: Maximum greed priced in for this week. Next week lower
255 1 13
SPX, D Short
S&P 500: Maximum greed priced in for this week. Next week lower

If stocks were truly bullish, then markets in the US and Europe hadn't taken any pause in rallying strongly higher today - one day after the Brexit negotiation talks officially started on June 19, 2017. Also on Monday the "VIX" index and also the "SKEW" index closed both green together on the same day while the "S&P 500" and"Dow Jones Industrial Average" both made ...

ChartArt ChartArt BTCUSD, D,
BTCUSD: Bitcoin price reached 1.618 Fibonacci extension of 2012 and 2015
581 1 19
BTCUSD, D
Bitcoin price reached 1.618 Fibonacci extension of 2012 and 2015

Mind blown: There are two ways in which the current Bitcoin price could have been seen as a price target in the past: $9.50 low on 2012-10-27 connected with $1163.00 high on 2013-11-30: Result $1875.86 $1163.00 high on 2013-11-30 connected with $152.40 low on 2015-01-14: Result $1787.55 Using the $152.40 low from 2015 and applying the 1.618 Fibonacci ...

ChartArt ChartArt SPX, D, Long ,
SPX: S&P 500: Maximum fear priced in for this week. Next week higher
169 2 9
SPX, D Long
S&P 500: Maximum fear priced in for this week. Next week higher

If the market were truly bearish, then "Gold" and "Vix" hadn't taking any pause in rallying strongly higher this week. Instead both dipped lower in the last days and the US stock market remained sideways holding above its lows. Until real strong fear starts creeping back into the market there is no reason to panic. Especially if bears capitulate next week, because ...

ChartArt ChartArt SPX500USD, D,
SPX500USD: S&P 500: Maximum fear was not priced in. Mean reversion decision
155 0 6
SPX500USD, D
S&P 500: Maximum fear was not priced in. Mean reversion decision

A major stock market pullback is after the close of the "S&P 500" below the 50 day SMA and the "VIX" volatility 'fear' index closing above the 200 day SMA increasingly more likely than last week. If company earnings disappoints the entire "Trump rally" could turn from euphoria into panic. The result could be a very strong downtrend until Summer 2017. Bulls could ...

ChartArt ChartArt SPX500USD, D, Long ,
SPX500USD: S&P 500: Maximum fear priced in. Dodd-Frank repeal rally is next
156 3 7
SPX500USD, D Long
S&P 500: Maximum fear priced in. Dodd-Frank repeal rally is next

The "S&P 500" did not close Tuesday at the lows of the day and also closed above the EMA 50 on the daily chart. The "Russell 2000" small-cap company index ended Tuesday unlike the large-cap US stock indexes with a higher close. And US President Trump floats a complete repeal of the Dodd-Frank bank regulation act, which is very bullish for bank stocks. All of these ...

ChartArt ChartArt SPX, D, Short ,
SPX: S&P 500 market crash odds rising due to new black swan events
190 1 6
SPX, D Short
S&P 500 market crash odds rising due to new black swan events

While US stock market bulls are near to establish a bottom above 2334, a bottom area which had just begun to gain increasing odds to hold the lows starting in the second week of April 2017 after recent initial jobless claims dropped and ADP data showed stronger job creation --- now the market can easily fall back into the hands of the stock market bears in the ...

ChartArt ChartArt SPX, D, Long ,
SPX: S&P 500: The Q1 2017 Earnings Season High-Risk Bull Trap
265 1 9
SPX, D Long
S&P 500: The Q1 2017 Earnings Season High-Risk Bull Trap

Bulls successfully defended the 50 DMA (50 Day Simple Moving Average) price region on March 27 causing a very rare type of reversal of the "VIX" 'fear index' from bearish to bullish for US stocks during that day (see chart link at the end), followed by another strong move higher on Tuesday, March 28, confirming the low at 2322.25 from the day before as a bottom ...

ChartArt ChartArt SPX, D, Short ,
SPX: S&P 500: Major US stock market pullback until around May 2017
301 1 12
SPX, D Short
S&P 500: Major US stock market pullback until around May 2017

The Trump rally is forced to take a break after the recent Fed rate hike. A hike which was forced onto the market. A upcoming strong stock market pullback of the "S&P 500" can now easily be blamed on this decision by the Fed. As reaction the Fed is most likely going to cut back on their current plans to hike even more in the year 2017 and then the stock market ...

ChartArt ChartArt SPX, D, Long ,
SPX: Phase III Of The Trump Rally Starts
278 2 14
SPX, D Long
Phase III Of The Trump Rally Starts

Odds for a March rate hike are low, which helps US stocks. The US Dollar is weak, helping oil, which helps 'US oil' companies and thereby helps the 'S&P 500'. Q1 2017 earnings are mixed, but overall good enough to support the stock market going higher. My original target from two months ago is 2350-2400 and I stay with that ...

ChartArt ChartArt SPX, D, Short ,
SPX: Downside risk for the Trump rally
227 2 15
SPX, D Short
Downside risk for the Trump rally

The downside risk is increasing more and more. I have several sell signals already since a few days, but I was waiting for more confirmation from the price. Today's intra-day price action was very bearish with a move higher after the spot open which got rejected and sold off down below 2165 points. Here are arguments for and against a short: Bearish: Former ...

ChartArt ChartArt GLD, M,
GLD: Reminder: Gold investment idea for the year 2017
364 3 15
GLD, M
Reminder: Gold investment idea for the year 2017

Gold could be a great very long-term investment entry to hedge against a crash of the "S&P 500" in the year 2017 and beyond, after the election of Donald Trump. Here is my original "Gold" chart I made 5 months ago. The price of my lower entry arrow has been reached, plus the time window has been reached, which is why I publish this reminder. This chart is posted ...

ChartArt ChartArt SPX500, D, Long ,
SPX500: S&P 500 target 2350-2400 in the year 2017
490 1 17
SPX500, D Long
S&P 500 target 2350-2400 in the year 2017

The raging bull market extends further into the year 2017, after the "Italy" referendum was shrugged off. There could be another pullback after the FED meeting this month, but after this super bullish market reaction to the situation in Europe (even if manipulated by the ECB) I see the risk of a new crash diminishing and the opportunity to extend the overall ...

ChartArt ChartArt SPX, D, Short ,
SPX: S&P 500 support levels
225 0 12
SPX, D Short
S&P 500 support levels

Amid all this risk here are the price areas of support in case of a sell-off: 1. Main support is around 2050 points, the green shaded area 2. The 200 day moving average seems to give support above 2105-2115 points 3. The 0.5 ratio of the June low to the November high is near 2100 points 4. The high of November 8 right before the US election at 2146.87 could ...

ChartArt ChartArt SPX500, D, Short ,
SPX500: S&P 500 risk off week amid OPEC and Italy risks
154 0 11
SPX500, D Short
S&P 500 risk off week amid OPEC and Italy risks

There are several risk factors coming up in the next days and weeks: OPEC oil ministerial gathering on Nov. 30 Italian referendum on Dec. 4 IFed FOMC US rate hike decision meeting on Dec. ...

ChartArt ChartArt SPX, D,
SPX: Why a Donald Trump win is NOT a surprise
169 1 7
SPX, D
Why a Donald Trump win is NOT a surprise

There had been several models strongly pointing to a win of Donald Trump, as I had shared already 9 days ago: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/VIX/6DcLHrrF-PRESIDENTIAL-ELECTION-TRUMP-TO-WIN-SHORT-SPX-LONG-VIX/#tc489361 Currently we are now in a wide and wild trading range where anything can happen the next days.

ChartArt ChartArt SPX, D, Long ,
SPX: S&P 500 longest losing streak in 5 years creates room to buy
222 3 6
SPX, D Long
S&P 500 longest losing streak in 5 years creates room to buy

The "S&P 500" and "Nasdaq Composite" Index fell for a 7th straight day on Wednesday in the first week of November, which is the longest losing streak since the year ...

ChartArt ChartArt SPX, D, Long ,
SPX: S&P 500: Halloween Seasonality Effect + New Uptrend in Earnings
168 0 4
SPX, D Long
S&P 500: Halloween Seasonality Effect + New Uptrend in Earnings

Seasonality: "The period from November to April has significantly stock market stronger growth on average than the other months of the year. The Halloween effect was evident in 81 out of 108 countries in a research study using all historical data available. Importantly, the researchers also found the effect to be increasing in strength: Over the past 50 years, the ...

ChartArt ChartArt SPX, D, Long ,
SPX: More Before Less Central Bank Stimulus To Run Economies Hot 2017
229 1 8
SPX, D Long
More Before Less Central Bank Stimulus To Run Economies Hot 2017

Central banks are (again) helping bulls by keeping the stimulus active until they see higher inflation - according to rumors and speculation of the last three days, ahead of the next ECB meeting this Thursday, October 20, 2016, where Mario Draghi might surprise the market to the upside again, after the reaction to the last meeting was a falling stock market. This ...

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