US10y Yield vs. Dollar Index (DXY) - a Mean Reversion coming?
Most textbooks will tell you that a higher yield attracts capital inflows and therefore demand for that currency increases and in turn, increases the value of that currency.
This chart shows exactly the opposite happening with the US10y yield and the US dollar going in opposite directions. Some can argue that this is the intention of the Trump administration to have a weaker or more 'competitive' US dollar.
This diversion will have to eventually revert such that the two move in tandem - but which one will lead? Will the dollar have to strengthen to catch up to higher yields or will higher yields have to pull back to fall in line with the dollar?
I suspect it will be the dollar playing catch up...
This chart shows exactly the opposite happening with the US10y yield and the US dollar going in opposite directions. Some can argue that this is the intention of the Trump administration to have a weaker or more 'competitive' US dollar.
This diversion will have to eventually revert such that the two move in tandem - but which one will lead? Will the dollar have to strengthen to catch up to higher yields or will higher yields have to pull back to fall in line with the dollar?
I suspect it will be the dollar playing catch up...