Copper / Gold ratio pointing to lower 10 year Treasury yields around 2.40%. US yields seem to high on many measures but improving CESI and too much safety bid lately can push yields even higher before the real downturn begins.
I charted this a while ago. The 10-2 yr yield spread has a trajectory to invert first half of 2019. Originally, I was thinking the second half of 2019, but present circumstances have expedited this path.
Long US TSY (yield) - Target Zone 5% ~5.30%
Broke the Long term down trend.
Monetary expansion (ZIRP + QE).
Inflation will come, but before, we will need to see a Commodities boom, as the last movement of growth economic cycle.
For the first time since the 1980s, the US 10 year treasury yield is showing a sustained breakout above the red line.. the 120 SMA in this chart.
Since US interest rates were trending lower over 30 years, this is monumental.
With the risk of a tariff war growing, and oil prices projected to rise to $90 in the coming months, we can see how this is all coming...
Does the 10-2's continue on to negative area, which is usually predictive of a market being close to top or is it at a bottom right here? Financial stocks not reacting well to stellar earnings. Some negative divergence on RSI. Is the tolerance level due to massive debt now higher? What do you think @allstarcharts I'm torn. History has shown that this becomes...
When this spread gets close to or below 0, we should start becoming more risk
adverse in our trading. While conditions may persist for a period of time, the change
in direct of spread usually leads to a change in direction of $spy. Something to watch
Using a parallel channel tool, I drew a precise line using gaps as starting points and end points, middle channel also using gaps as reference.
I always compare my charts to DXY, USDWTI, DGS10-DTB3 (yield curve) and market indices, particularly SPX.
Comparing the 10 year note yield to SPX painted a clear picture. ...