Will the Trump tax cut be a short term impediment for the yield curve to invert? Based on this chart and some logic... Yes, it will. The previous Fed rate hikes and quantitative tightening has made some pressures to short maturity bond yield go up almost as long maturity bond yields but on the other hand, the US state deficit has increased because of the less...
As it is known that bond prices are inversely proportional to their respective yield, a decrease in yield means an increase in the price of the bond. Right now we are seeing a continuous decrease in the 30-year bond yield (same goes for the 10-year bond yield_) even the indexes and the global markets as a whole have been going up. This means that bond prices are...
Looking at the 30 years. There seems to be a lot of movement on the bond market that the financial media has been totally ignoring!
The bond yields reached a high of 3.46 November 2 2018!
These heights were broken when the price broke and Closed below the 3.4 level
The current yield is showing an uptrend. The uptrend is an extension of the Fibonacci area.
The bond market is a place where traders can gauge the strength or weakness of a currency. Typically when looking at the US 30YR Government Bonds, if the price of the bonds increases it tells us that traders are willing to invest into the US economy for the long term. This then should show that the USD is likely to increase in price.
If the price of the bonds...
"There's a warning sign for the economy with an amazing track record: The last five times it flashed, the U.S. economy went into recession within about a year.
This economic crystal ball takes the views of people and institutions from from all around the world and boils them down into a single, simple signal."
When the yield curve has inverted for a quarter,...
When the yield curve has inverted for a quarter, that means longer term interest rates on average are lower than shorter term interest rates. This predicts that a recession will follow.
- Campbell Harvey, Finance Professor at Duke University
Whats Up Guys,
Have been listening to a lot of chatter about the Yield Curve, so I wanted to plot it out for myself and do a little homework.
Put some things into perspective for me. Have a look - let me know your thoughts
This is part of a series of charts which I will posting for the reader to make up his/her mind based on the weight of the evidence.
Do note, these are weekly charts which means the implications of which will occur over the next 12, 18, 24, 36 months.
Hello everyone. Here is a trade idea on the 30 year Treasury yield. According to the weekly chart, there is a breakout of the inverted heads and shoulders of the 30 year yield.
Macro Thesis: The FED controls the short term interest rate, and the long term interest rates are determined by the supply and demand, meaning the buyers and sellers of the long bond. The...
The risk sentiment environment, judging by our proprietary macro risk-weighted index (RWI measures 9 risk-sensitive assets), has now broken below the 100-hourly moving average for the first time since Sept 11. The sharp downward move implies caution around bidding up risk, and in the currency market, this might translate in reservations to be overly committed to...
We've been reporting for over a month now how coincidental it that the risk-rally has stalled at the origin of the GFC supply imbalance 10y ago.
Also, how the macro pennant seen in the weekly shows a time projection of breaking around the US mid-term election. However, with the latest rally in risk, we may be just 1 day away from that milestone to happen this...
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US30Y (Derived Data)
