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This month, we wanted to explore the topic of interest rates; what they are, why they are important, and how you can use interest rate information in your trading. This is a topic that new traders typically gloss over when starting out, so we hope this is a helpful and actionable series for new people looking to learn more about macroeconomics and...
Understanding the basics of Bonds is very important to traders/investors. Yields (interest rates) are like gravity to other
asset classes. The higher yields go the more gravity on other asset classes. Most are unaware of this simple rule bc most
traders today have never had to deal with inflation and rising rates.
I can't go too much more in explaining it all...
The US long term bond yields are falling, with the 30 year likely to find support at 3.1 -1.2 level before pausing, consolidating and breaking out or reversing. As you can see on the charts, 3.1 -3.2 is also previous support/resistance where the market has paused and reversed before.
What are GOVERNMENT BONDS YIELD?
Bonds are Fixed Income instruments that allow investors to anticipate the flow of funds they will receive.
What does an inverted yield curve mean?
Put simply, this means that short-term US debt is more profitable than long-term debt. Economic theory says that in a “normal” situation, long-term lending should be more...
US30 is trading in a downtrend
And the price is retesting
The broken horizontal key level
Which is now a resistance
From where a move down
Is to be expected
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See other ideas below too!
Is 4% yield the end for the 10 year?
The fed is talking about increasing the base rate further so I doubt it is the bottom but we do see a similar move here versus the begging of the sell off. Moving about .23% on the yield today versus the beginning of the sell off does leave one to wonder. Are we close to the bottom? Does this mean that equities have the green...
Looking at this chart it looks like the bond yields on 30 year treasuries capitulated between January and March 2020 and now we could be in a trend reversal from the large downward parallel channel. Indeed the long bond sell off seems to be accelerating as the price has now broken out of the upward sloping channel.
30Y have benefited from rotational flows out of the S/T part of the curve into longer dated, Technically speaking the 30Y has broken out of downward trend and is indicating a strong upside move, with a first target around 3.71/3.75% by next month.
All the fixed tenure yields have broken above their four decades of downtrend. - 2yr, 5yr, 10 yr & 30yr
To note, the shorter end, the fixed 2 year tenure yield is climbing faster than the longer end, the U.S. fixed 30 year tenure government bond yield.
The year closing, it will be crucial to determine the trend transition; from this long-term downtend to uptrend.
I notice that whenever a crash occurs, bond market would be offloaded prior to the event.
Order block was printed on the 1st of October 2018 prior to covid. Bearish fair value gaps printed and rebalanced in 2019 prior to the crash.
Note that Buyside liquidity (BSL) has been taken out, I would speculate that the market is currently printing a bearish order block....
Alright so I've come up with a formula between different US Bond Yields resulting in an oscillator indicator - which successfully signals tops on the stock markets and the bear market after.
Based on the area where that oscillator crosses the 0 value (down), we start topping until it comes back up. This period last in average around 1 year and is aligningt +/-...
The 30:10 Treasury Bond Yield Spread is a simple Ratio difference between the 30-Year Treasury Bond Rate
and the 10-YearTreasury Bond Rate.
A Large exodus from high Beta/Rho correlated Assets to perceived Safe Havens.
Presently the best-performing and most stable Asset of 2022 has been Cash - The US Dollar Index was 94.63
in mid-January to a high of 110.78 - a...
We are in a strange epoch, at the moment all the US Bonds Yield break an historical trend-line that start in the 80'.
Now it's approach a resistance, that in my opinion it'll break because the interest rate il still low, at the present 2.5% in comparison with an high inflation.
Another consideration is about the volatility we can se in stock market and...