ArisopeCapital

ArisopeCapital

On the back of strong prices data which were not really consistent with the temporary relief in inflation but rather calling for a sustained trend. US30Y is likely to revisit new high, breaking our

ArisopeCapital Updated 

MATBAROFEX:WTI1! Using a weekly candle chart, Crude right on an upward trend line testing, using the March 2020 low. Crude should bounce from here current level having been tough to break over the last 2 years. Unless we are about to live a historical correction moment on Oil (liquidation/ news flow / Itan) the current price action set up is favouring longs...

ArisopeCapital Updated 

Post BOJ decision which is USDJPY supportive, we could expect the Nikkei to recover from recent weakness. Since it remains a choppy Equity Environment, selling DAX against it (delta hedge) makes sense from a relative price perspective and looking at technical levels, along with oscilators. Another way would be to buy Upside calls on Nikkei (cheap in Impiled...

ArisopeCapital Updated 

fading the YTD bond rally driven by Central Banks Pivot hope misread by markets, it seems that the short positioning has exacerbated the buying so far this year. Things should start to normalise into month end and ahead of FED/ ECB meetings in February. Short US10Y Future - Expect the Yield rise by 20bps

ArisopeCapital Updated 

After Equity Option expiry today and into Month end, the technical rally induced by January effect could be fading. Commodities recent spike (on China reopening/inflationary) will certainly have an knock on seasonal effect in next Inflation data, Technically speaking BTP/Bund spread has done a double bottom, and we could expect a bounce from here (Italy widening...

ArisopeCapital Updated 

Intra-sector Energy Trade here Canada Index Trading on a low relative to XLE US Energy Oil and Gas. There is a strong Reversal potential here

ArisopeCapital Updated 

We are having here a very well structured trade idea, exploiting the confluence of high important technical factors, mean reverting stance, and extreme positioning in the Oil and Gas space thanks for a Long Inflation lean by most investors this year. Into year end and preparing for 2023, Fact is that after such a good performance some will be tempted to take...

ArisopeCapital Updated 

Same Narrative as WTI, Sell the YTD winners, Buy Losers NG has been a high performing asset this year, a potential ease in RUS-UKR resolution could bring price lower, also the technical indicators are all pointing towards further negative trend. Moving Average (ST, MT and LT) all acting as resistance Momentum indicators not oversold either. Risk Management...

ArisopeCapital Updated 

- USD has probably peaked for 2022 post US CPI important release. - Into year end Trade - Contrarian Play is to Buy Losers (Coppers, NDX, US Equities, Gold), Sell Inflation winners (WTI, USD, Financial sector, Energy Equities). - In Commodities I chose WTI as a good proxy Technicals Long term Trend is negative on crude since the top in June 2022, we broke...

ArisopeCapital Updated 

NDX underperformance vs. SPX is becoming extreme here, last time (in June 2022 right after the OPEX Quadruple witching we bounced massively on it until mid July This chart is the Weekly (log term) showing an intact uptrend right at the bottom of it here. Bottom Line buy here NDX hedged in SPX you are being supported by L/T Moving average below. 200d-MA Since SPX...

ArisopeCapital Updated 

Ascending Trend line Line - L/T Technical support from March 2020 lows. Using a weekly candle chart, Crude right on an upward trend line testing, using the March 2020 low. Crude should bounce from here current level having been tough to break over the last 2 years. Unless we are about to live a historical correction moment on Oil (liquidation/ news...

ArisopeCapital Updated 

30Y have benefited from rotational flows out of the S/T part of the curve into longer dated, Technically speaking the 30Y has broken out of downward trend and is indicating a strong upside move, with a first target around 3.71/3.75% by next month.