Today 1/16/19 the SPX hit Fib resistance noted in my 1/15/19 post. There was a confirming intra day Fib relationship.
The supposed wave "5" at todays SPX high was .382 of the supposed wave "1"
Hourly RSI and MACD have bearish divergences.
If five waves up from the 12/26/18 bottom are complete there could be a decline lasting about five to eight trading days.
Toady the SPX came a few points below Fib resistance at 2615.
Intra day wave pattern is bullish and looks like it push above 2615 to 2617, If so next resistance is at 2626 this is .618 retrace of the drop from SPX 2800.
Above that is .50 retrace of the entire Oct to Dec decline. SPX 2642.
Daily Stochastic is overbought - this indicator can stay overbought ...
An Elliott five wave pattern could be complete on 1/15/16.
The length of supposed wave 1 added to the supposed wave 2 bottom targets in the 2617 area.
The longest part of the possible Horizontal Triangle wave 4 added to the low of sub wave "e" targets 2615,
SPX momentum indictors are bullish, daily MACD has a bullish crossover. RSI is not overbought, Stochastic has yet to reach overbought yet this current rally is already as large as the November rally. SPX has a good chance to reach at least a 55 to 60% retracement of the October - December decline.
Crude Oil has a seasonal tendency to bottom in December or January. The December 26th Crude Oil bottom (same day as SPX) came at a support zone in the $42 area with a significant RSI Bullish divergence. A clear Elliott wave "A -B - C" corrective pattern also appears complete at the 12/26/18 bottom.
Crude Oil usually has a seasonal rally January to April. ...
My prior SPX post noted that the intraday pattern since the bottom made at 2346 appeared corrective.
I was expecting 12/31/18 to be a down day as a prelude to more downside action in early 2019.
Instead the SPX formed a base. The alternate bullish count is what I consider - super bullish.
1) A series of "Ones" and "Twos" up is the prelude to a powerful third ...
As 2018 nears a close the SPX has a mixture of bullish and bearish signals.
The SPX chart shows additional bullish evidence from a Fibonacci support area.
One Elliott wave alternate count has the January 2018 top as the termination point for Primary wave "3" of the bull market from the March 2009 bottom.
The pattern after the January 2018 peak could be a ...
The NYSE Composite (NYA) has been much weaker than the three main US stock indices.
Today 12/26/26 was the last day of the Full moon widow for a bullish turn.
12/26/18 was also the 58 trading day of the decline since the DJIA 10/3/18 top, matching the 58 trading day decline of the SPX correction in 1998.
The 1998 SPX correction was down 22.4% so far the 2018 SPX ...
The current smash down in US stock prices has been spectacular. Several support levels have been smashed, where will it end?
I remembered doing analysis after the August 2015 mini crash and discovered that from the high in May 2015 to the mini crash bottom in August the SPX a golden section was formed.
Prior to the SPX high of 2134 in May 2015 there was a ...
The economic expansion and stock bull market has been going on for ten years, obviously overextended.
The Fed is raising interests rates that will for sure trigger a recession next year.
There's political turmoil and talk that the US President could be impeached!
The majority of US stocks are below their 200 day moving averages.
The stock market decline that began ...
The SPX decline from the September 2018 all -time high is referred to as a Combination wave.
Expanding Flat followed by a Horizontal Triangle and completing with a Zig Zag.
I've studied this structure down to the one minute chart scale and I'm very confident that its correct.
In particular Minor wave "C" of the Zig Zag counts as a five wave structure with a ...
Some of you may think I'm a perma- bull. Definitely not. My goal is to be on the correct side of any market.
To accomplish this goal I study many indicators from the four market dimensions; Time, Price, Sentiment, and Momentum.
I base my opinion on the weight of evidence. If 80% of the evidence is bullish I'm bullish. Of course sometimes the low probability ...
The last major US stock index to make an all-time high was the DJI on 10/3/18
12/20/18 will be a Fibonacci 55 trading days from and including 10/3/18.
12/21/18 is Winter Solstice.
A .236 retrace of the SPX from Intermediate bottom at 1010 to high at 2940 is 2485.
Weekly Stochastic very oversold.
I will have more information soon.
Elliott wave analysis and significant daily RSI and MACD bullish divergences
indicate BTCUSD could be in a counter trend rally that lasts at least until the end of 2018.
Broad target zone is 5500 to 6100.
If you missed the stock market bottom made on 11/23/18 the move down on 12/4/18 gives you another chance to go long.
The SPX low on 12/4/18 was 2697.18 a perfect .618 retrace of the rally from 2631.09 to 2800.18 is 2695.69.
There's a seasonal probability of 80% that US stocks could rally into at least January 2019.
The strongest piece of evidence that the 12/4/18 ...
BTCUSD from its all-time high appears to be forming a Double Zig Zag down with an Elliott wave Horizontal Triangle separating both Zig Zags.
Major support is in the low 1800 area. The weekly RSI - not shown in this daily chart has yet to reach the oversold zone implying this bear market has room to go lower.
Bear market could continue for several months.
Most market watchers look only at the Price Dimension, to be successful you need to focus on all four market dimensions.
This is some of the data for the SPX at the close of November 2018.
Time Dimension: In my 10/31/18 post I noted there was an 80% chance the SPX could rally from November to January with November being seasonally the most bullish month. ...
My prior UKX posts speculated that some form of long term Elliott wave triangle was forming, either a Horizontal or Ending.
It now appears both could be true. A multi-year Horizontal triangle followed by a multi year Ending Diagonal Triangle.
A major clue that the UKX could reach a new high is that the decline from the May 2018 top is very choppy - a ...