About meIndependent investment advisor, trader and writer. Have written articles for Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities, Traders.com Advantage, Futuresmag.com and Finance Magnates. Author of Four Dimension Trading website.
This post is related to my 8/30/20 "Peace is at Hand" post.
Two weeks ago Pfizer (PFE) announced they were expanding testing for Coronavirus vaccine which could come as soon as October.
This ties in with the many hints from US president Trump about having a vaccine before the US elections.
Watch the support/resistance levels in the coming weeks. PFE comes up...
My 9/14/20 post noted the Russell 2000 (RUT) was showing bullish strength relative to the SPX. On 9/18/20 while the SPX was making a new low for the decline that began in early September, RUT was significantly above its September lows. Very unusual, since the March 23rd crash bottom RUT has significantly underperformed the three main US stock indices.
Today 09/16/20 the DJT made a new all-time high. There are two Elliott Wave counts. The Prime count has Minor wave "3" at or near a peak.
The alternate wave count has Intermediate wave (5) at or near completion. If this wave count is correct it implies the DJT could be on the verge of a multi-year bear market.
Momentum indicators favor the Prime count which...
Since the current bull run began on 03/23/20 to 09/02/20 the RUT has been weaker than the SPX.
The decline from 09/02/20 to 09/11/20 - SPX fell 7.57%
RUT fell 6.78
If the decline from 09/02/20 was the start of a larger bear move you would expect the weaker Index - RUT to lead the way down.
That RUT is...
On 9/7/20 the SPX bottomed almost exactly at a .382 retrace of what appears to be Minor wave 3. If so, it could be a completed wave 4. Wave fours typically retrace about .236 or .382 of third waves. Its possible the supposed wave 4 could require more time, note that wave 2 took about five trading days to complete. So far the supposed wave four has only...
My 8/22/20 SPX post noted the hourly Stochastic could become oversold at a higher level- the SPX was then at 3397.
Today the SPX Stochastic reached oversold at a higher level. The correction may already be complete, if not the SPX could reach the value zone within the next
one or two trading days.
This is not a forecast of the 2020 US Presidential election. It's a demonstration of how politics can affect the near-term course of a market.
By 1972 US involvement in the Vietnam war had dragged on for years. There were negotiations underway to end the war - nothing was being accomplished.
On October 26, 1972 National Security Advisor Henry Kissinger...
In my 8/11 SPX post it appeared that the hourly Stochastic could soon reach the oversold zone signaling a buying opportunity.
Relentless buying hasn't allowed the Stochastic to get oversold, the type of activity that's typical of a mid phase bull market.
Since 8/10 the SPX has been forming a market profile - values zone which could be the base for further...
Today 8/19/20 the SPX appears to have completed an Elliott Wave - Ending Diagonal Triangle (EDT). After completion of this pattern there's usually a return to the EDT point of origin which is this case is the support zone disused in my prior SPX post. Continue monitoring the hourly Stochastic for a possible buy signal in the oversold zone.
The wave count...
The recent rally in USDJPY has taken the form of an Elliott Wave Zigzag - A-B-C. A break below 105.301 could open the door for a move down to the Zigzags point of origin.
Note, daily Stochastic has had a bearish crossover.
Sometimes when a market or stock comes close to a significant support/resistance area there's a sharp rejection.
If a market is nearing support a sharp rally could erupt.
Nearing a top a sharp decline may occur.
On 8/12/20 the SPX reached 3387.90 only 5.60 from the all-time high made in February.
Subsequently the SPX has struggled to go lower as noted in the...
In my 8/11 SPX post I noted my Market Profile - Volume indicator had support just below S&P E-Mini futures 8/11 low of the day.
I suspected that the SPX could rally in the early part of the session. The rally continued late into the day and the SPX made a new post crash rally high.
Today's rally shows just how difficult it is to predict even a short term...
Today SPX move to new post crash rally highs, then subsequent decline, could be the start of another short term correction and another chance to go long.
Hourly Stochastic could continue to be a good guide to timing long entries.
Very short-term the intraday drop appears to be a completed Elliott five-wave pattern implying early 8/12/20 could have a rally....
My most recent post noted the SPX may have been forming a Elliott Wave Ending Diagonal Triangle.
This count is now invalid. A characteristic of third of third waves up for stocks is that the move is very steady. That's whats
been happening. If the SPX makes a new all-time high it could be another bullish signal.
If the SPX can make a new all-time high I will...
From the SPX bottom at 3200.10 an Elliott Wave - Ending Diagonal Triangle could be forming.
If the illustrated count is correct this EDT would be wave "C" of and Expanding Flat.
Since the supposed third wave of the EDT is shorter than the first wave, if the SPX exceeds 3286.70 the count would be invalid.
In Elliott Wave rules, the third wave of a five wave pattern...
The recent break below the double bottom opened the door for USDJPY to reach at least the 102.00 area. On 7/31/20 the situation changed. Stochastic had a bullish crossover in oversold territory.
On an intraday chart, the move up was in Elliott wave terminology - impulsive, which implies more upside. The 7/31/20 rally stopped just below the post double bottom...
My prior USDJPY post noted a break below a tight double bottom could be bearish.
The SPX has a similar situation, a break below 3198.60 could open the door for more downside action.
My prior SPX post noted a break below the lower rising trend line could be bearish. Usually, when this happens the prior support trend line then becomes resistance, which has...
On 7/24/20 USDJPY broke below double bottom support, there's no significant chart support until the area around the last significant low made on 03/09/20.
Both daily Stochastic and RSI are still above their oversold zones and implies price could continue lower.
A near term move above 107.54 would invalidate the bearish forecast.