markrivest

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About me Independent investment advisor, trader and writer. Have written articles for Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities, Traders.com Advantage, Futuresmag.com and Finance Magnates.
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Markets Allocation
9 % indices 6 % stocks 2 % forex 83 % other
Top Mentioned Symbols
TVC:SPX 52% | 100 DJI 7% | 15 IXIC 6% | 12 INDEX:SPX 5% | 11
markrivest markrivest SPX, D, Short
SPX: SPX Mini Crash Bottom at 2135 - Target Date 9/11/17
71 2 5
SPX, D Short
SPX Mini Crash Bottom at 2135 - Target Date 9/11/17

For several months stock market momentum indicators have become very bearish. The persistence of the rally have brought the recent SPX top into a seasonally bearish time zone from August to November. Recently I've posted that conditions for a stock market mini crash are in place if the SPX breaks below the 200 day Simple Moving Average and significant support at ...

markrivest markrivest SPX, D, Short
SPX: Prelude to a Stock Market Mini Crash?
488 11 11
SPX, D Short
Prelude to a Stock Market Mini Crash?

My last post noted SPX resistance up to just below 2475. On 8/16/17 the SPX reached 2474.90 and began a new decline. The decline continued into today, and on the 15 minute chart is a Elliott five wave pattern. Very short term it appears this decline could be complete at the close of 8/17/17. The 8/16/17 - 8/17/decline could be the second wave "one" down in a ...

markrivest markrivest SPX, 15, Short
SPX: SPX NEXT RESISTANCE ZONE
362 16 13
SPX, 15 Short
SPX NEXT RESISTANCE ZONE

My last post noted SPX resistance in the 2458 area and a move above 2460 could open the door to the next resistance at 2470. Today 8/14/17 the SPX opened near the 2458 resistance area and quickly moved beyond this potential stopping point. I had speculated that an Elliott Wave - Expanding Flat was forming. In this pattern wave "C" sub divides into five waves, ...

markrivest markrivest SPX, 15, Short
SPX: Powerful SPX Resistance at 2458
314 10 8
SPX, 15 Short
Powerful SPX Resistance at 2458

There are three SPX Fibonacci coordinates in the 2458 area. 1) .382 of the decline from 2490.90 to 2437.8 is 2458.10 2) If an Elliott wave Expanding Flat is forming - wave "c" is two times wave "a" at 2458.20 3) There is short term chart resistance at 2458.00 This could be an excellent area to initiate short positions. If the SPX moves beyond 2460.00 the next ...

markrivest markrivest NYA, 15, Education
NYA: Elliott Wave Tutorial - Discovering the True Wave Count
102 2 7
NYA, 15 Education
Elliott Wave Tutorial - Discovering the True Wave Count

In my last post I noted the SPX could be forming an Elliott wave Horizontal Triangle. There are five sub types of Horizontal Triangles, the type I thought was forming is referred to as a Running Triangle. In this pattern the wave "B" exceeds the point of origin of wave "A" ***See Figure 1-43 on page 50 of Elliott Wave Principle by Frost and Prechter. The most ...

markrivest markrivest SPX, 15, Long
SPX: SPX Still Has Potential to Reach 2490 Area on 8/10/17 or 8/11/17
178 5 6
SPX, 15 Long
SPX Still Has Potential to Reach 2490 Area on 8/10/17 or 8/11/17

The SPX rally from 2459.90 to 2490.90 is too choppy and has too much over lap to be a standard impulse wave. This structure does not have the proper proportions to be an Ending Diagonal Triangle. In my last post I thought this structure could be part of a developing Ending Diagonal Triangle. The SPX decline to 2462 on 8/9/17 has made this count a very low ...

markrivest markrivest SPX, 30, Long
SPX: One More SPX Rally Into 8/11/17 ?
262 3 8
SPX, 30 Long
One More SPX Rally Into 8/11/17 ?

There could be an opportunity for a quick long trade at the open 8/9/17. It appears that wave III of an Elliott wave Ending Diagonal Triangle may have complete at the high of the day on 8/8/17. If this count is correct the SPX could rally into the 2491-2495 area with a possible top early on 8/11/17. Mark

markrivest markrivest SPX, 15, Short
SPX: Strategy to Short SPX ON 8/7/17
242 2 9
SPX, 15 Short
Strategy to Short SPX ON 8/7/17

My last post noted there could be a post triangle thrust up to SPX 2492. The rally on 8/4/17 terminated at 2480 well below the bulls-eye target. Its possible that the SPX opening rally on 8/4/17 was an Elliott wave truncated 5th wave. If so the pattern is very bearish. Here is the plan for shorting the SPX on 8/7/17. Best scenario is if SPX has opening rally ...

markrivest markrivest SPX, 15, Short
SPX: SPX Opening Call 8-4-17
236 0 11
SPX, 15 Short
SPX Opening Call 8-4-17

There is a very high probability the SPX completed an Elliott wave - Horizontal Triangle on 8/3/17. If so a post triangle trust up could be triggered by the Jobs report today 8/4/17. Post triangle thrusts are usually the widest part of the triangle added to the termination point of the triangle, which is wave "e" bottom. This targets SPX 2492 as the bulls-eye ...

markrivest markrivest SPX, D, Short
SPX: Has the Move Down for US Stocks Begun?
452 18 17
SPX, D Short
Has the Move Down for US Stocks Begun?

At the open today 7/27/17 the SPX completed a extended five wave Elliott pattern illustrated in my last post. The SPX top was less than two points above the short term Fibonacci target noted in my last post. To understand the extreme bearish condition of the US stock market you must move beyond the dimension of price. Please examine the new 52 - week highs for ...

markrivest markrivest SPX, 15, Short
SPX: Mother of All Turns Delayed Until 7/27/17
305 8 16
SPX, 15 Short
Mother of All Turns Delayed Until 7/27/17

The decline from the SPX all-time high made on 7/26/17 was choppy and appears to need one more rally to above the SPX high made soon after the open on 7/26/17. SPX Minute wave "I" was 7.20 points added to minute wave "IV" bottom of 2474.20 targets SPX 2482.10 for what could be the top of the bull market that began in March 2009. If downturn begins on 7/27/27 ...

markrivest markrivest SPX, D, Short
SPX: Could 7/26/17 be the Mother of All Turns?
450 5 12
SPX, D Short
Could 7/26/17 be the Mother of All Turns?

Today 7/25/17 the SPX and IXIC made all-time highs. Momentum remains insanely bearish. NYSE 52- week highs today was 221 vs. 778 made on 12/9/16 Nasdaq 52- week highs today vs. 562 made on 12/8/16. Today only 3 of the 9 S&P 500 sector funds made new highs Intraday SPX patterns point to a potential top sometime around the FOMC announcement on 7/26/17. If SPX ...

markrivest markrivest IXIC, D, Short
IXIC: Prelude to Stock Market Mini Crash - Part 2
124 0 12
IXIC, D Short
Prelude to Stock Market Mini Crash - Part 2

Please see my prior post Prelude to Stock Market Mini Crash- Part 1 for comparison. Note that the March 2015 and 2017 corrections are very similar in both form and dates. The early July 2015 and 2017 corrections ended almost on the same July date 7/8/15 and 7/6/17. The subsequent rallies are very similar in form. Momentum for IXIC is almost the same as in ...

markrivest markrivest IXIC, D, Short
IXIC: Prelude to Stock Market Mini Crash - Part 1
95 0 11
IXIC, D Short
Prelude to Stock Market Mini Crash - Part 1

This is the first of two charts illustrating the similarities with the Nasdaq Composite (IXIC) in 2015 and 2017. In March 2015 IXIC had a correction that subsequently became major support. In August of 2015 when IXIC broke below the 3/26/15 bottom and the 200 day SMA it triggered a mini crash. My next post will illustrate the similarities in both form and ...

markrivest markrivest IXIC, D, Short
IXIC: US Socks in Blow Off Top
119 4 9
IXIC, D Short
US Socks in Blow Off Top

There are four dimensions to analyze any market; Price, Time, Sentiment , and Momentum. Currently for the US stock market the most important dimension is Momentum. Note the multiple daily RSI bearish divergences on the IXIC. To have a clear picture of bearish momentum look at the new 52 week highs for the NYSE and Nasdaq Composite. Stockcharts.com has charts ...

markrivest markrivest SPX, 15, Short
SPX: SPX Forming Ending Diagonal Triangle
304 7 14
SPX, 15 Short
SPX Forming Ending Diagonal Triangle

Watch the SPX intraday wave count- looks very much like an Ending Diagonal Triangle forming This could be the pinnacle to the blow off top in US stocks. Mark

markrivest markrivest SPX, 30, Short
SPX: More Signs of a Signficant Stock Market Top
405 1 18
SPX, 30 Short
More Signs of a Signficant Stock Market Top

The SPX 7/14/17 appears to have completed an Elliott wave post triangle thrust up. After completion of an Elliott Wave Horizontal Triangle there is a significant thrust in the direction of the primary trend. Normally the post triangle thrust is equal to the widest part of the triangle added to the termination point of the triangle can yield a target for ...

markrivest markrivest NDX, 15, Short
NDX: Continue Building Short NDX Position
378 5 13
NDX, 15 Short
Continue Building Short NDX Position

The Elliott waves for the NDX is very bearish. There appears to be a series of "one's" and "two" to the downside which could be the prelude to a very sharp break to the downside. Additionally both wave "twos" could be expanding flats which is a very bearish counter trend formation. If this count is correct it may be complete or could complete on or just ...

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