Yield Rates represent a percentage. How much would an investor get if they invested in a US Treasury Bond.
A stable economy needs three things, at least according to the FED.
- Low Inflation
- Low Unemployment
- Strong Economy
Yield Rates are the ultimate weapon of the FED. By manipulating rates they stabilize the economy accordingly. They stimulate when they...
Price never gets faked out. Traders do.
A blow-off top, a black swan, a trend break.
All of these can easily become TRAPS-101.
The winter is coming.
Time to turn back your clocks.
No more words are necessary.
No conclusions, no signatures.
Every chart describes a story.
Inflation can be tracked using producer-prices and consumer-prices.
Equities are affected by consumer inflation, while commodities by producer inflation.
Many of the worlds largest companies are selling services, not commodities.
The ratio of the two on the chart above, shows that long-term production cost of commodities is...
-- Prologue --
Crises don't come when everybody expects them to.
I have said this over and over again, for the last year I've been in this platform.
I don't take it back.
Finding out the kind of crisis that will come, the time and the severity, is hard.
Trading, investing, living, is hard...
Some have called me schizophrenic. This is funny. When you say what...
Prices never lie. Price is everything.
Time however always lies. That's "Theory of Relativity 101".
Time stretches and narrows based on boredom, psychology, speed.
By taking time out of the equation we transform a news piece into a literature book.
Timeless charts are the past, the present and the future.
They don't expire.
Unlike candles with specific expiration...
In the recent history, we have had two perma-bull trade-ables, NDQ and Bitcoin. No-one in their real mind would dare to short these 2 years ago... So what if, we could compare these two bulls? Who will survive in the years to come? Who is the record keeper? The answer is NOT as simple as it might seem. Read until the end to find out...
The scale of what is happening cannot be understated.
Massive amounts of money have been printed, then burned immediately.
It is as if the FED is trolling us... Or we are being trolled by our own minds.
Equities reflect the mental state of investors, big and small alike.
The dilemma is causing headaches, it has reached a paradoxical state.
No human, not even...
Don't judge a book from it's cover. Read on and soon, you will find out who the real winner might be.
The explosive crypto mania was born because of Bitcoin. It is the reason myriads of alt-coins are now traded every day.
From the countless of alternatives, one became strong enough to constitute an alternative to the coin that started it all.
There are two kinds of inflation, the normal one and the dangerous one.
Printing money creates inflation. The kind however which is not dangerous to the foundation of the economy.
With money printing, currency loses value and prices react accordingly. Nobody gets wealthy from money printing, and in a sense, "nobody" gets poor. By nobody I mean the economy as an...
Money printing has been a double-edged sword. One one hand ample liquidity helped the exponential productivity of the economy, on the other hand inflation hit hard.
In periods of stagflation like the 1970s, immense inflation created an impenetrable ceiling for equities.
In periods of extreme deflation (2010s), equities bubbled. It is interesting that in this...
Babylon, the city where everybody spoke different languages.
In the end, Babylon met grave consequences.
(Macro perspective of the main chart)
Citizens of Babylon, in our case traders, can barely communicate.
They all speak in different timeframes, and with contradicting interests.
Which translator in their right mind can untangle spaghetti?
Historical data can be hard to compare against modern ones.
The longer back an analyst goes, the better the results of their analysis.
100 years of yield rate analysis may seem enough...
5000 years of interest rates however is a whole new story.
Money has been as cheap as it has been for the past 5000 years. Incredible numbers...
Charting is amazing. The excitement it gives me is far greater than the satisfaction a good trade could ever give me. It is easy for me to state this fact since I don't trade. I consider the stock market as a super-long-term strategy. A strategy that lasts for generations, not a career. After all, the most wealthy have ancestors heavily invested in the stock...
You don't need to believe in fairytales to realize that there are kings, queens and peasants.
As if not a single day has passed since the Medieval times. Poor get poorer, and rich get richer.
As the folklore said, the emperor decided that he needs new clothes.
And so he demanded from the entire kingdom that he finds the finest.
Two swindlers arrive at the...
Not all is equal. And nothing is static.
Entropy is the foundation of our world, and it is the bane of a rich man's existence.
You collect in one spot, then nature comes up and spreads your work around.
Entropy is the unbeatable power of justice. In the end entropy always wins.
One has limited amount of time to temporary evade it.
Panta Rhei - Heraclitus...
We are at a crossroads. As if we have nothing to invest in.
Gold is, in absolute terms, highly overpriced.
Gold is more than 50% above the 24 year average.
And highly diverging...
It still is the massive elephant in the room.
Yield rates are the small rat in the room.
Due to fast rate hikes, the bond market has suffered incalculable losses.
Mister X marked the spot.
He did it again in January of 2023.
And apparently, he called it again.
Unfortunately for the markets, mister X has a double identity.
Mr. ❎ = Mr. ➡️
(mister x is my homie mister right)
Classic technical analysis proves them right.
VIX is compressing, forming a triple bottom. (amongst other taboo signals)
SPX is plowing through higher highs. It is a runaway train.
Have you entered that train yet? You better enter it because SPX will soar!
But runaway trains have the fate of collapsing in on themselves.
Their weight is too much for the foundation to sustain.
Not all is SPX. VIX is also attempting to measure the risk involved in SPX.
And VIX is as bullish as it...