Bitcoin | Armed and Dangerous

akikostas Updated   
There was the time, when one investor decided to invest in a single stock.
That investor was one of the victims of The Great Depression.
And they learned an important lesson, to split up their investment in multiple stocks to reduce risk. And so, Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) was born.

MMT is an algorithm one can apply to reduce risk and improve profits.
Mutual Funds do exactly that. They are algorithms that dynamically invest money with specific rules in mind. ETFs are, of course, made to make profit to those investing into them.

Bitcoin remained for years in limbo, in a state between being considered a viable currency, to viable gold etc etc. The recently-approved Bitcoin ETFs have certainly attracted interest. For the first time, one can invest in crypto in a sustainable fashion.

One of the oldest Bitcoin ETFs is Grayscale's Bitcoin Trust.
While I am not familiar with the way this specific ETF works, we can however make some important conclusions. Since this ETF is Bitcoin-based, it is safe to assume that the higher Bitcoin goes, the higher the ETF.

Unfortunately for Bitcoin Bulls, something alarming happened in this bull market.
Bitcoin ETFs have attracted so much attention that they have managed to grow more than the underlying investment (Bitcoin).

As seen on the main chart, the ratio has apparently broken out of a downward trend.
ETFs provide increased investment security, at the expense of decreased performance.
Bitcoin ETFs cannot sustainably grow against their fundamentals.
For this reason, this breakout could be a massive fakeout.

Even though these charts may frighten, a Bitcoin peak may not be imminent, but it is certainly approaching...
A similar-to-today price action occurred in 2017, a previous Bitcoin Bull Market.
In the middle of Bitcoin growth, ETFs had a significant pump in performance. This could be because of a "delayed reaction" in how this ETF works. Crypto may have been purchased in much lower prices, and when buyer mania came, the ETF rapidly increased.

A similar phenomenon is happening now.
ETF performance may be reaching its peak. ETFs allow rapid and secure profit-taking en-masse, compared to a direct Bitcoin sale. It is wise for us to watch closely the dynamics of ETFs in order to act quick in an oncoming Bitcoin weakness.

Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground.
-Father Grigori
- Trend may be your friend, but it is not my friend.
- "Hidden Divergence" is a new, fancy way of saying that your "oscillator" is not working correctly.
Has anyone analyzed the "false-signal-ratio" of indicators like RSI, Stochastic RSI etc?
Truth is hard. Either you accept it or you ignore it.
Most choose to ignore what is right in front of their eyes.
Desperate Bitcoin bulls will see their investments bleed out for months.
They were too anxious and couldn't wait until the real bubble begins.

All I see around here, and in my loving comment section, is despair.
Fearful Bitcoin Bulls, who fell for the ETF trap, and bought everything they could at a painful premium. FOMO doesn't create bubbles. FOMO creates stagnation.

Bitcoin peak in Nov. 2025, no more than 150k.
It is sad, you know. So much hatred, for nothing.
Analyst ≠ Investor
aka chartist ≠ trader

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