déjà vu

Circle is the most perfect of shapes. It optimizes its area perfectly. An architectural marvel with no point of failure. And it is unique. All circles are similar to each other. Some small, other large. In the end identical.

Cycle is the Hellenic word of Circle.
I purposefully call it "Hellenic" instead of "Greek"

Market cycles are just that, cycles/circles. All of them are identical clones of the original.
Price is after all, nothing more than perfect fractals, the equation of which is, and will forever be, unknown to us.

FED is the all-powerful entity that gives birth and death to bull markets. Its only weapon is yield rates. Don't go against the FED.

Yield rates up = Bull Equity Market
Yield rates down = Bear Equity Market

Many think this is the other way around, that yield rates kill equity markets.

Why do rate hikes help equities though? Because Bonds. Bonds suffer during periods of rate hikes. And they soar when yield rates remain constant or fall.

The usual investment strategy of equities+bonds is creating a rapid shift in flow as we speak.
For a year, massive amounts of wealth was withdrawn from bonds, and invested into equities.

This trend is about to shift rapidly.

And the speed of such a shift is extreme.

While short-term rates are very fast moving, long-term yields represent a heavy market, and thus are more important in our analysis. I will ignore the FEDFUNDS rate because it represents a fraction of the weight of US10Y.

• Long-term yields didn't change much in 2007, but the crash was devastating.
  
• In 2018 the same happened, but faster in US10Y. The slope was much higher than in 2007. This resulted in a literal black swan event. The consequences of the 2020 crash are still unknown.
  
• Moving to today, we witness an unparalleled change in yield rates. This has resulted in massive bond crashes as we have shown before, and will most certainly lead to incalculable effects in the equity market.
  

History has shown that the stronger the rate change, the harder the crash. This makes sense. The higher yield rates go, the greater the incentive to invest in bonds.

Be aware, the market is waiting for the FED to trigger the crash.
Make sure to pick the correct side when the cycle ends again.

Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground.
-Father Grigori

Comment:

All markets go through cycles. The duration may change, but the movement is identical. Psychology is independent of timeframe or product.

News just coudn't be better for Bitcoin. Now that everyone is sure that an ETF is coming, this bull market can never stop.

Those who do not learn history are doomed to repeat it.

When someone gets trapped from price movement that others have created, it was a bad day. A trade that got wasted. It is sad, you know...

...that after that wrong trade, the victims manage to trap themselves for a second consecutive time.

And if they are not careful...

...the toll will go to four.

This price movement is supply recycling. No good can come from that.

Comment:

This time is no different.

This time however, it will be more painful.

The target was set at an approximate 1.618 retracement, just like it happened in the previous cycle.

Comment:

Here we are, yet again. Another identical cycle of conversation. Talking about the elephant in the room.

Comment:

Open your mind, and let it see clearly.

Either it is approved, or disapproved, physics don't change.

Comment:

S&P 500 was introduced in March 4, 1957
Prices of SPX before that are inferred, not official numbers.
Thus, we should analyze from that point onwards.

Comment:

Transitory Inflation? Hmmmmm

Comment:

QE until 2030 is, indeed, possible.

No bank rushes to cut rates.
They only rush to hike rates.