SPX (S&P 500 Index)

S&P 500... 23% crash to 5,750 by late October S&P 500... ascending broadening wedge / 23% crash to 5,750 by late October.

S&P 500: Flat Correction Ahead of Final Rally S&P 500 index has a beautiful textbook impulse as we saw yesterday in Nasdaq 100 Here wave 4 is still in progress as broad market takes its time It shapes possible flat correction ABC Wave A is done, wave B is in the making as it can still retest the all-time high of $7,621 Then another drop within wave C is anticipated to commence It could touch the valley of wave A at $7,238 on the opposite side After that, another rally within wave 5 is projected with minimum target at all-time high of $7,621 Next preliminary target area is highlighted with the blue box between $7,735 and $8,040 representing 38.2-61.8% Fibonacci ratios of waves 1-3 It should be adjusted once the actual valley of wave 4 is established

S&P500 May-June Sell Signal emerging. 7420 immediate Target.The S&P500 index (SPX) has been trading within an Ascending Triangle pattern, having recently been rejected on its Higher Highs (Top) trend-line). With the 4H RSI under Lower Highs however, i.e. a Bearish Divergence, we are gradually getting a Sell Signal that we last saw on the May and June patterns. Those two were also on a 4H RSI Bearish Divergence and immediately initiated a decline towards the pattern's Support. Our Target is 7420, as the Higher Lows support trend-line directly below it looms. --- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** --- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇

S&P 500 Index: Triangular Consolidation (Alternative But Viable)one of readers hinted at this alternative but viable scenario under my earlier post today In this case, wave 4 could be a triangle ABCDE it is already fully completed and moreover the bullish trigger was pulled as peak of wave D at $7,551 was overcame Target is in the blue box at 38.2-61.8% Fibonacci ratios of waves 1-3 between $7,918 and $8,226 Invalidation is close tight at the valley of wave E below $7,422

Daily SPY/SPX | QQQ/NDX Tactical Playbook - 15 JUL Daily SPY/SPX | QQQ/NDX Tactical Playbook Market Sentiment Following yesterday’s softer than expected CPI and PPI reports, the probability of a rate hike at the July FOMC meeting has fallen to roughly 10%, providing a meaningful tailwind for equities. In addition to the encouraging inflation data, the KOSPI Index rallied nearly 6%, suggesting that immediate concerns surrounding a potential global liquidity crisis have eased for now. That said, several structural macro risks remain unresolved. Treasury yields, particularly the US 10-Year and Japanese 10-Year government bond yields, continue to trade near historically elevated levels. These remain important risk factors that could quickly shift market sentiment if conditions deteriorate. While the short term backdrop has improved, downside risks should not be ignored. Risk Index This oscillator reads macro conditions and converts them into a technical risk framework. It was developed internally at UA CAPITAL and remains the primary indicator I use for both short term and long term positioning decisions. The Risk Index shifted back to slightly bullish following the CPI and PPI releases. The long term outlook remains firmly Risk On, while the short term outlook has improved enough to support a potential move toward new all time highs. However, the signal remains relatively weak. Although bullish momentum has strengthened, downside volatility remains a realistic possibility should market conditions deteriorate or new macro catalysts emerge. Scenarios / Strategies Long Scenario 1 KEY Level 1 (752.5) This is the first major demand zone. If price reaches this level and confirms support, it may provide an opportunity to establish long exposure using call options. Trigger: Price must test 752.5 and produce a bullish 1 hour candle close back above the level. Targets:754.5 → 758 → 760 Invalidation:4 hour candle close below 751.5. Long Scenario 2 KEY Level 2 (748.25) This is the second major demand zone. If price reaches this level and confirms support, it may provide another opportunity to establish long exposure using call options. Trigger: Price must test 748.25 and produce a bullish daily candle close back above the level. Targets: 750 → 751.5 → 754.5 Invalidation: Daily close below 747. Breakout Scenario Swing Area (755) If price breaks decisively above 755 and produces a strong 1 hour bullish candle close, a breakout continuation trade can be considered after a successful retest of the breakout level. Trigger: A strong 1 hour bullish candle close above 755, followed by a successful retest. Targets: 756 → 758 → 760 Invalidation: 1 hour candle close below 754. Position Management Rules 1-Entry Model: Use an aggressive entry only after a confirmed 1 hour candle close above or below the designated trigger level. 2-Scale Out Gradually: Take profits in stages, as market reversals can happen quickly, especially in volatile conditions. 3-Protect Capital: Once the first target is reached, move the remaining position’s stop loss to break even, converting the trade into a risk free position. 4-React, Don’t Predict: Every setup requires confirmation. We do not anticipate price movements we react to confirmed price action. 5-Read Every Scenario Carefully: Each scenario has its own unique trigger and invalidation level. Make sure you follow the rules specific to the setup you’re trading. Notice: Starting a fresh, fully transparent track record for SPY, QQQ, and core equities here on TradingView. Going forward, all daily market updates, institutional research, weekly outlooks, and mid week market updates will be documented and tracked consistently. This analysis is for educational purposes only and reflects my personal opinion. It is not financial advice.

ES M30: Hold 7,612 or Fall to 7,575?▪️ ES M30 SNAPSHOT — EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ▪️ the S&P 500 has rolled over to 7,606 after failing at 7,632. The pullback is orderly so far, with price rotating back toward the middle of its range. ▪️ Primary outlook is neutral-to-cautious — 7,612 now caps the tape. Sellers own the near term unless it is reclaimed. ▪️ Key resistance zone: 7,612, rejected 26 times on the way down. Beyond it, 7,632 is the next hurdle. ▪️ Major defense line: 7,548 — a very strong level at 72 retests, the shelf bulls must protect to avoid a deeper leg. ▪️ Primary downside targets: 7,575, then 7,548, where resting liquidity sits. ▪️ Major liquidity magnet below: 7,575–7,548 — a test here is where the next real decision gets made. ▪️ Bullish scenario: A daily close back above 7,612 re-opens the topside toward 7,632. ▪️ KEY LEVELS RESISTANCEs ▪️ 7,632 — ★★★ 7.4 Strong · 7 retests ▪️ 7,612 — ★★★★ 8.7 Very Strong · 26 retests ▪️ Current Price: 7,606 SUPPORTs ▪️ 7,594 — ★★ 6.2 Moderate · 38 retests ▪️ 7,575 — ★★★★ 8.7 Very Strong · 41 retests ▪️ 7,548 — ★★★★ 8.1 Very Strong · 72 retests ▪️ ProjectSyndicate Levels Desk — Overview of key S/R zones for ES, NVDA, NQ, GC & GBPUSD traders every week. Subscribe to stay up to date with the latest levels.

by ProjectSyndicate

S&P 500 (ES) Analysis, Key Zones, Setup for Monday (July 13)Bias: Neutral and two-sided with a defensive tilt into the open. The E-mini enters Monday near 7,595, down about 0.3% from Friday's 7,620.25 settle after a weekend Middle East escalation reintroduced a risk premium, lifted crude, and pushed the volatility index up more than 8%. The higher-timeframe trend is still up (price above every major moving average, composite indicators read 80% buy, Friday printed a five-week high), but momentum is overbought, the directional-strength gauge is weak near 16, and, importantly, institutional options flow has turned defensive, with heavy index put buying and upside-call selling around the 7,650 cash area, plus notable weakness in technology. With the June inflation print due tomorrow and a semi-annual central-bank testimony this week, the base case is a two-sided, range-bound session that compresses ahead of data. Fading rejections into the 7,615 to 7,648 shelf now has flow alignment, while buying the 7,566 to 7,572 base only works if flow flips positive at support. Stand aside in the middle and let the open pick the side. Resistance: 7,615 to 7,620 (overnight high, prior settle) 7,633 (statistical target) 7,648 (pivot resistance, one-month high, major shelf) 7,657 to 7,676 (1 SD, second pivot resistance) 7,684 to 7,694 (52-week high extension) Support: 7,600 (pivot, round number) 7,583 (1 SD support) 7,566 to 7,572 (overnight low, first pivot support, 5-day average, key base) 7,536 to 7,545 (40-day dynamic, statistical support) 7,503 to 7,524 (50-day average, second pivot support) Primary Setup: Fade the rejection (the flow-aligned side). Short a rejection at the 7,615 to 7,648 resistance shelf back toward 7,583 then 7,566, stop above 7,657. Conditional long: only if the 7,566 to 7,574 support base holds and options flow flips positive, buy with a structural stop below 7,554, targets 7,600, then 7,615 to 7,620, then 7,633 to 7,648, for roughly 1:2 to 1:6 risk-to-reward. A sustained break beneath 7,556 opens 7,536 then 7,503 to 7,524. Any fresh energy or shipping escalation headline overrides the technical plan.

SPX: 7600 - A Dangerous Level Let's take a look at SPCFD:SPX In the previous idea, the projected targets were reached. Previous analysis: The Most Likely Scenario Right Now The Elliott Wave count suggests that the fifth wave is likely complete. The market is currently in Wave B . A move back to 7,600 , or slightly above, is expected before turning lower. Initial Downside Targets 7,100 6,950 After that, the larger correction is expected to continue, although temporary rebounds may occur along the way. Main Downside Targets 6,540 6,200 5,870 Be Cautious The decline could develop much faster than expected, leaving very little time to react. --- Liked the idea? Hit Boost 🚀 Disagree? Share your targets in the comments. ---

by NotBoringTrading

QQQ / NDX Weekly Outlook – Week 29 of 2026 (13-17 JUL)QQQ / NDX WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOK Last Week's Recap We only took one QQQ trade last week. Tuesday's Tactical Playbook provided a clean long setup, allowing us to capture a profitable move in both QQQ and NQ futures. No additional QQQ trades were taken for the remainder of the week. 1 trade | 1 win (For reference, I have included last week's outlook on the right.) UA CAPITAL RECAP 12.07 | WEEK 06–10 JUL Week 27 of 2026 marked our first breakeven week after an incredible run of 13 consecutive deep green weeks. That winning streak, which had lasted since early April, officially came to an end. I want to mention this with complete transparency. While the deep green streak is over, we still have not recorded a single red week year to date. Hopefully a new winning streak begins soon and continues to compound over the coming months. Markets experienced a healthy pullback during the first half of the week before finding support at lower levels. Part of that weakness was driven by renewed geopolitical uncertainty after President Trump announced that peace negotiations with Iran had been suspended and military operations would continue. Those headlines created enough uncertainty to trigger profit taking across the indices. On Tuesday, the levels published in the Daily SPY/SPX | QQQ/NDX Tactical Playbook once again worked with remarkable precision. SPY bounced almost exactly from our predefined area before rallying toward 750, while QQQ and NQ futures provided the cleaner execution. We established long exposure in both QQQ and Nasdaq futures, capturing another profitable trade by following the published plan. On Wednesday, SPY tested the 740.5 level almost perfectly before closing back above it, allowing long positions to be established from the support zone. Partial profits were taken at 745 and again at 747 during Wednesday and Thursday, following the execution plan exactly as outlined. Thursday brought a different opportunity. In the Daily SPY/SPX Tactical Playbook published that morning, I outlined a tactical short setup for SPY around the 750–752 supply zone while also identifying a potential bullish continuation scenario for QQQ. The SPY short failed and was stopped out according to plan. However, the QQQ bullish scenario unfolded almost exactly as anticipated. Since we were already positioned on the SPY short, we decided not to participate in the QQQ long. Looking back, the analysis itself was accurate, but our execution favored the weaker setup. Had we followed the QQQ long instead, another profitable trade would have been available. Sometimes analysis is correct while execution becomes the deciding factor. The Thursday report also highlighted the possibility of a breakout above 752. That breakout materialized on Friday exactly as anticipated. Friday's rally was supported by renewed optimism surrounding geopolitical developments as headlines suggested that peace negotiations could resume. Despite the breakout, the UA CAPITAL Trading Desk decided not to participate because the move developed late on Friday afternoon, when option pinning and positioning distortions become much more likely. We preferred to finish the week flat rather than force a late entry. Overall, the week reflected disciplined execution. Tuesday's Tactical Playbook generated profitable futures and QQQ trades, while the unsuccessful SPY short later in the week offset part of those gains. By respecting predefined stop losses and maintaining disciplined risk management, we finished the week essentially flat. Although our 13 week deep green streak came to an end, our year to date record remains free of any losing weeks. That consistency is not simply the result of good market analysis. It is the product of disciplined risk management and strict position sizing. Equities Play This week we also began building several medium term spot positions together with the UA CAPITAL Trading Desk. To maintain flexibility, total exposure was intentionally limited to approximately one quarter of our available buying power. Over the coming weeks, we plan to continue accumulating positions at predefined technical levels with the intention of holding them into the November–December 2026 timeframe. The individual names are shared exclusively inside the private Trading Desk, so I will not disclose them publicly. However, the portfolio remains concentrated primarily in technology and semiconductor companies. This Week's Scenarios / Prediction Risk Index This oscillator reads macro conditions and converts them into a technical risk framework. It was developed internally at UA CAPITAL and remains the primary indicator I use for both short term and long term positioning decisions. The Risk Index algorithm is currently signaling a short term neutral to slightly bullish environment. Additional upside remains possible over the near term, although the market continues to trade within a broader choppy structure. The long term algorithm continues to signal a risk on environment, while the medium term outlook still leans slightly bearish. When these conditions occur simultaneously, volatility typically increases as both buyers and sellers compete for control. Eventually, this type of environment often resolves through either a meaningful correction or a decisive breakout that establishes the next directional trend. Our approach this week remains straightforward. We will continue looking for confirmed long opportunities from predefined Key Levels. At this stage, I believe short positions carry a less attractive risk to reward profile. Should that view change, I will communicate it through the daily Tactical Playbooks. Scenarios / Strategies Long Scenario 1 KEY Level 1 (715) This is the first major demand zone. If price reaches this level and confirms support, call options can be used to establish long exposure. Trigger: Price must reach the level and produce a bullish 1 hour candle close back above the zone. Targets: 720 → 725 → 729.5 Invalidation: Daily close below 710. Long Scenario 2 Put Wall (700) This is the largest negative GEX level. If price reaches this level and confirms support, call options can be used to establish long exposure. Trigger: Price must reach the level and produce a bullish daily close back above the zone. Targets: 710 → 715 → 720 Invalidation: Daily close below 700. Long Scenario 3 KEY Level 2 (692) This is the second major demand zone. If price reaches this level and confirms support, call options can be used to establish long exposure. Trigger: Price must reach the level and produce a bullish daily close back above the zone. Targets: 700 → 705 → 710 → 715 Invalidation: Daily close below 681. Position Management Rules 1. Entry model: Aggressive: 1 hour candle close above/below the designated level. Conservative: Daily candle close above/below the designated level. 2. Take profits in stages because market reversals can happen quickly. 3. After the first profit target is reached, move all remaining stop losses to breakeven and convert the position into a risk free trade. 4. A reaction from the level must be confirmed. We do not predict price. We react to price. 5. Daily candle close below the designated bounce zone equals stop loss. Notice: Starting a fresh, fully transparent track record for SPY, QQQ, and core equities here on TradingView. Going forward, all daily market updates, institutional research, weekly outlooks, and mid week market updates will be documented and tracked consistently. This analysis is for educational purposes only and reflects my personal opinion. It is not financial advice.

SPY / SPX Weekly Outlook – Week 28 of 2026 (13-17 JUL)SPY / SPX WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOK Last Week's Recap We took two SPY trades last week. The first trade came from Tuesday's Tactical Playbook after price broke out of the Chop Zone and delivered a clean long setup. Later in the week, we attempted a tactical short from the 750–752 supply zone. The setup failed to follow through and was stopped out as planned. 2 trades | 1 win | 1 loss (For reference, I have included last week's outlook on the right.) UA CAPITAL RECAP 12.07 | WEEK 06–10 JUL Week 27 of 2026 marked our first breakeven week after an incredible run of 13 consecutive deep green weeks. That winning streak, which had lasted since early April, officially came to an end. I want to mention this with complete transparency. While the deep green streak is over, we still have not recorded a single red week year to date. Hopefully a new winning streak begins soon and continues to compound over the coming months. Markets experienced a healthy pullback during the first half of the week before finding support at lower levels. Part of that weakness was driven by renewed geopolitical uncertainty after President Trump announced that peace negotiations with Iran had been suspended and military operations would continue. Those headlines created enough uncertainty to trigger profit taking across the indices. On Tuesday, the levels published in the Daily SPY/SPX | QQQ/NDX Tactical Playbook once again worked with remarkable precision. SPY bounced almost exactly from our predefined area before rallying toward 750. During that move, we established long exposure through ES futures and captured a solid profit. On Wednesday, SPY tested the 740.5 level almost perfectly before closing back above it. That confirmation allowed us to re enter on the long side around 741.5. We scaled out at both 745 and 747 during Wednesday and Thursday, following the plan exactly as published. Thursday brought a different opportunity. In the Daily SPY/SPX Tactical Playbook published that morning, I outlined a new tactical strategy for Thursday and Friday. Based on that framework, we initiated short exposure in SPY around the 750–752 supply zone while simultaneously shorting several individual equities. This trade did not develop as expected and was stopped out according to plan. Although the SPY short failed, the bullish continuation scenario published for QQQ unfolded almost perfectly. In hindsight, the analysis itself was accurate, but our execution favored the weaker setup. Had we followed the QQQ long instead of the SPY short, the trade would have produced another profitable outcome. Sometimes the analysis is correct while execution becomes the deciding factor. The Thursday report also highlighted the possibility of a breakout above 752. That breakout materialized on Friday exactly as anticipated. Friday's rally was supported by renewed optimism surrounding geopolitical developments as headlines suggested that peace negotiations could resume. Despite the breakout, the UA CAPITAL Trading Desk decided not to participate because the move developed late on Friday afternoon, when option pinning and positioning distortions become much more likely. We preferred to finish the week flat rather than force a late entry. Overall, the week reflected disciplined execution. Tuesday's Tactical Playbook generated profitable futures trades, while Wednesday and Thursday's long positions produced additional gains. Those profits were offset by Thursday's unsuccessful short positions across both the indices and several equities. By staying disciplined with our risk management, the week finished essentially flat. Although our 13 week deep green streak came to an end, our year to date record remains free of any losing weeks. That consistency is not simply the result of good market analysis. It is the product of disciplined risk management and strict position sizing. Equities Play This week we also began building several medium term spot positions together with the UA CAPITAL Trading Desk. To maintain flexibility, total exposure was intentionally limited to approximately one quarter of our available buying power. Over the coming weeks, we plan to continue accumulating positions at predefined technical levels with the intention of holding them into the November–December 2026 timeframe. The individual names are shared exclusively inside the private Trading Desk, so I will not disclose them publicly. However, the portfolio remains concentrated primarily in technology and semiconductor companies. This Week's Scenarios / Prediction Risk Index This oscillator reads macro conditions and converts them into a technical risk framework. It was developed internally at UA CAPITAL and remains the primary indicator I use for both short term and long term positioning decisions. The Risk Index algorithm is currently signaling a short term neutral to slightly bullish environment. Additional upside remains possible over the near term, although the market continues to trade within a broader choppy structure. The long term algorithm continues to signal a risk on environment, while the medium term outlook still leans slightly bearish. When these conditions occur simultaneously, volatility typically increases as both buyers and sellers compete for control. Eventually, this type of environment often resolves through either a meaningful correction or a decisive breakout that establishes the next directional trend. Our approach this week remains straightforward. We will continue looking for confirmed long opportunities from predefined Key Levels. At this stage, I believe short positions carry a less attractive risk to reward profile. Should that view change, I will communicate it through the daily Tactical Playbooks. Scenarios / Strategies Long Scenario 1 KEY Level 1 (751.5) This is the first major demand zone. If price reaches this level and confirms support, call options can be used to establish long exposure. Trigger: Price must reach the level and produce a bullish 1 hour candle close back above the zone. Targets:754.5 → 758 → 760 Invalidation: Daily close below 748. Long Scenario 2 KEY Level 2 (747) This is the second major demand zone. If price reaches this level and confirms support, call options can be used to establish long exposure. Trigger: Price must reach the level and produce a bullish daily close back above the zone. Targets: 750 → 751.5 → 754.5 Invalidation: Daily close below 745. Long Scenario 3 KEY Level 3 (740.5) This is the third major demand zone. If price reaches this level and confirms support, call options can be used to establish long exposure. Trigger: Price must reach the level and produce a bullish daily close back above the zone. Targets: 742.5 → 745 → 747 Invalidation: Daily close below 739 Position Management Rules 1. Entry model: Aggressive: 1 hour candle close above/below the designated level. Conservative: Daily candle close above/below the designated level. 2. Take profits in stages because market reversals can happen quickly. 3. After the first profit target is reached, move all remaining stop losses to breakeven and convert the position into a risk free trade. 4. A reaction from the level must be confirmed. We do not predict price. We react to price. 5. Daily candle close below the designated bounce zone equals stop loss. Notice: Starting a fresh, fully transparent track record for SPY, QQQ, and core equities here on TradingView. Going forward, all daily market updates, institutional research, weekly outlooks, and mid week market updates will be documented and tracked consistently. This analysis is for educational purposes only and reflects my personal opinion. It is not financial advice.

ES/SPX Short/Put entry Weekly Chart shown and Daily Fed Net liquidity indicator applied. This indicator shows fed inflow/outflow money’s based on their Quantitative tightening and easing (denoted by the green line). As you can see by looking at the circles drawn in, when Net liquidity becomes meaningfully extended above the price action, price eventually makes its way there, and the same goes with when the NL under-extends. Currently SPX is $4009 and its fair value (denoted by the Net liquidity indicator) is $3790 as of 1/16/23. We are clearly down trending as we keep rejecting off the trend line. The play here looks to be an entry around $4050-4100 near the upper region of the trend line and a short all the way down to $3790. This is interesting as it would likely ripple over to $BTC and cause it to also decline. Looking for this to play out around the end of February or early March.

SPX Forecast: Key Levels to Watch as Earnings Season Kicks Off The S&P 500 (SPX) has jumped 11% since the start of the year, boosted by ongoing enthusiasm for the AI trade and resilient consumer spending. As earnings season gets into full swing this week, with reports from major banks including Wells Fargo (WFC), Bank of America (BAC) and JPMorgan Chase (JPM), let's look at several technical levels worth watching. Firstly, a breakdown below a month-long symmetrical triangle opens the door to a retracement toward 7,235. This area may attract buying interest near a horizontal line that connects the low of the pattern with the opening price of a rare gravestone doji candlestick, which appeared on the chart in early May. A close below this level could see the index test lower support around the phycological 7K area. This location would likely see bulls defend a series of peaks that formed throughout January and February near the rising 200 MA. If the index breaks out above the symmetrical triangle, we can use a measured move to project a bullish target. In this case, we calculate the distance of the symmetrical triangle near its widest point and add that amount to the likely breakout area, which forecasts a target of 7,880. (320 + 7,560 = 7,880)

by timothysmith78

S&P 500 Outlook: Hourly Pullback Before a Move to Higher Targets Based on my technical analysis, I expect the S&P 500 to trade within the 7,496–7,654 range. On the 1-hour chart, I anticipate a potential pullback toward 7,536 before buyers step back in. Upside Targets: 🎯 Target 1: 7,594.68 🎯 Target 2: 7,624.20 🎯 Target 3: 7,671.98 This is my personal technical view and not financial advice.

Daily SPY/SPX Tactical Playbook - 09 JUL Daily SPY/SPX Tactical Playbook Risk Index Current Market State: Short Term Slightly Bullish (downside risks remain) | Long Term Bullish The Risk Index currently suggests that the market has shifted back into a short to medium term risk on environment. However, geopolitical risks continue to present downside uncertainty, meaning volatility can return quickly if negative headlines emerge. Despite that, the longer term outlook remains firmly bullish. This proprietary oscillator, developed internally at UA CAPITAL, combines multiple macro parameters into a single sentiment framework. The same complex risk analysis process I manually used for years is now automated through this system, allowing us to read market sentiment objectively and without emotion in real time. As long as the longer term structure remains bullish, we will continue looking for buying opportunities from predefined Key Levels. At the same time, tactical shorts can still be considered from major supply zones whenever price confirms rejection. Scenarios / Prediction Long Scenario As long as price remains above 745, the path of least resistance continues to favor a move toward 750. Trigger: Retest of 745 followed by a bullish 1 hour candle close back above the level. Targets: 747.5 → 750 → 752 Invalidation: 1 hour bearish candle close below 744. Breakout Long Scenario If price produces a confirmed 1-hour bullish close above 752, a breakout continuation trade can be considered following a successful retest. Trigger: Retest of 752 followed by a bullish 1-hour candle close above the level. Targets: 755 → 758.5 Invalidation: 1 hour bearish candle close below 750. Short Scenario The 750–752 area represents the primary supply zone. If price reaches this region and produces a strong bearish rejection, short exposure can be considered. Trigger: Retest of the 750–752 supply zone followed by a strong 1-hour bearish candle close back below the level. Targets: 747 → 745 → 740 Invalidation: 1 hour bullish candle close above 752. Notice: Starting a fresh, high frequency track record for SPY, QQQ, and core equities on TradingView. Moving forward, all institutional research, weekly outlooks, and mid week updates will be tracked consistently right here. This analysis is for educational purposes only and reflects my personal opinion. It is not financial advice.

Another Opportunity, The Same Process in MRNA After entering **PANW**, I continued monitoring several other stocks that had already caught my attention. A number of them were demonstrating strong relative strength and, from my perspective, signs of sustained institutional participation. Among those names, **MRNA** was the next asset to present a valid entry according to my trading plan. The signal appeared very close to the market close, and my order was filled in the final minutes of the session. Because of the timing, I didn't have the opportunity to reduce the trade's risk by moving my stop-loss to **break-even** before the market closed. As I write this before today's opening, MRNA is trading **higher in the pre-market**. I don't interpret that as a prediction of what will happen next, nor do I assume the trade will become profitable because of it. What matters to me is much simpler. If the opening provides enough strength, I'll have the opportunity to move my stop-loss to **break-even**, making the position risk-free. Once that happens, the market is free to decide the outcome. Everything beyond that is outside my control. The journal continues.

by happyrajofficial

Buy Stop trigged in PANW for long Just now !! I was triggered into a **long position in PANW**. At the same time, I had entry orders waiting on several other assets that also met my initial screening criteria. However, once PANW became an active position, I cancelled those pending orders. My priority now isn't finding another trade—it's managing the one I already have. The first objective is to reduce risk by moving the position to **break-even** if the market provides the opportunity. Only after the current trade is appropriately managed will I consider deploying capital elsewhere. Risk management always takes priority over trade frequency. The outcome of this trade is uncertain, as it should be. My responsibility is simply to execute the process consistently and let the market determine the result. The journal continues.

by happyrajofficial

ES (SPX, SPY) Analysis, Key-Zones, Setup for Fri (Jul 10)Bias: Neutral with a modest upward drift inside a defined band. Conviction low to moderate. ES settled Thursday at 7,588.75 after a chip led advance that lifted the cash index 0.79 percent, and the overnight session has produced a 23.75 point range against a 14 day average daily range of 89 points. Price trades 7,586 into the open, effectively unchanged. There is no first tier United States release today and no central bank speaker. Dealer positioning is net long across every nearby strike, which mechanically buys weakness and sells strength, and index implied volatility has collapsed toward the lower bound of its distribution with at the money readings for next week grouped in the low teens against one month realized near 15 percent. That is a market pricing near perfection into a week that carries an inflation print Tuesday, a producer price print Wednesday and monthly expiration Friday. The contradiction does not resolve today. Price sits above every moving average, the 5 day at 7,568.70, the 20 day at 7,521.45, the 50 day at 7,504.42 and the 200 day at 7,091.72, yet the directional measures lean negative at every lookback with the 14 day average directional index at 18.18 and negative directional movement above positive. Above all averages, no trend beneath the surface. That is a market carried by hedging flow rather than by aggressive buying, and it argues for mean reversion rather than breakout. The multi indicator composite reads 56 percent buy overall with the trend signal on hold. The single first order event today is not on the calendar. It is the headline path on the Qatari mediated negotiations between Washington and Tehran, where overnight reporting placed Qatari negotiators inside Iran discussing implementation of the existing memorandum of understanding and navigation rights in the Strait of Hormuz. That path is currently running toward de escalation, which is risk positive at the margin, but it is bidirectional and fast, and it is the one mechanism by which a compressed session expands violently. Secondarily, the debut listing of a large South Korean memory producer prints into the cash open and will govern the semiconductor complex, and therefore a third of the index by weight. Expect containment, a probe of resistance that fails, and a rotation back into support that holds. Resistance: 7,592.25, overnight high, shallow marker with no structural weight 7,596.00, densest options concentration on the board 7,597.25, first dealer positioning resistance, most likely cap on an opening drive 7,616.29, one standard deviation resistance band 7,617.08, first computed pivot resistance, pairs with the band above into a real shelf 7,622.25, second dealer positioning resistance 7,627.70, two standard deviation band with a heavy concentration reading 7,636.45, three standard deviation extreme 7,645.42, second computed pivot resistance 7,647.25, upper call concentration strike, where dealer hedging turns most strongly into supply 7,648.75, one month high 7,693.75, fifty two week high, structural ceiling of the entire advance Support: 7,568.50, overnight low 7,568.70, 5 day moving average 7,566.67, daily computed pivot, three methods converging inside two points 7,561.21, one standard deviation support band 7,551.00, heavy options concentration 7,549.80, two standard deviation band, pairs with the concentration above 7,547.25, primary gamma concentration strike, the magnet and the key support base 7,542.25, volatility inflection level, beneath which dealer hedging amplifies rather than dampens movement 7,541.05, three standard deviation support band 7,538.33, first computed pivot support 7,497.25, next dealer positioning support once the inflection is lost 7,490.25, dealer gamma flip level 7,447.25, lowest dealer positioning support Primary Setup: Long the defended shelf. Entry 7,566.00 to 7,570.00 on a retest that holds, requiring a rejection wick or a 15 minute close back above 7,570 before engaging, and no entry before 09:45 Eastern. Stop 7,545.00, structural, beneath the concentration pair at 7,550 to 7,551 and beneath the primary gamma concentration strike at 7,547.25, while remaining above the volatility inflection at 7,542.25. Risk roughly 23 points from the midpoint. Target 1 at 7,592.25, the overnight high, harvest a third, roughly 1 to 1. Target 2 at 7,597.25, the first dealer positioning resistance, harvest a further third, roughly 1 to 1.3. Target 3 at 7,616.50, where the first pivot resistance and the one standard deviation band converge, harvest the balance, roughly 1 to 2.1. Blended expectancy across the scale out is approximately 1 to 1.5. Invalidation is a 15 minute close beneath 7,547.25 regardless of whether the stop has been touched, and acceptance beneath 7,542.25 converts the environment from movement dampening to movement amplifying, at which point the next reference is 7,497.25 and the range assumptions in this plan cease to apply. The conditional alternate is a short from 7,645.00 to 7,648.00 on rejection, stop 7,662.00, targets 7,622.25 and 7,597.25, which requires a 60 point catalyst free advance into the heaviest upside concentration and should not be forced. Stand aside if the opening range exceeds 28 points, if price trades beneath 7,547.25 before 10:00 Eastern, if the negotiation headlines reverse toward escalation in the Strait of Hormuz, if price is already above 7,600.00 before 09:45, or if the semiconductor listing gaps materially lower at the open. Expected range for the session is 7,558 to 7,600 as the central band, with outer bands at 7,548 and 7,632, each requiring an order flow event to reach. Flatten before the close. Friday afternoons in this positioning environment drift toward the concentration strike, and the weekend carries an unresolved negotiation.

GTLB: Whales Buying the AI Fear — Textbook Neckline Backtest 🦊 💻🦊 💻 📈 🚀 📈 🚀 When the broader market panics over sweeping, generalised macro narratives, the smart money quietly separates the structural winners from the noise.Software names got absolutely hammered in June on widespread "AI disruption" fears. Morgan Stanley recently characterised this environment as a "peak uncertainty" moment for the entire enterprise software landscape. But while retail investors threw the baby out with the bathwater, the institutional tape tells a completely different story: 155 existing institutional positions were increased, and 55 brand-new whale positions were opened. They didn't run away; they aggressively bought the fear. The structural rotation out of pure speculative hardware and back into high-quality, cash-generating software platforms is officially underway—and GitLab (NASDAQ: GTLB) is sitting right at the front of the line. 📊 Part I: Fundamental Fuel & The $1B ARR MilestoneGitLab isn't an AI casualty; it is a primary AI beneficiary. Its native DevSecOps platform is scaling rapidly as enterprise software groups scramble to deploy agentic coding workflows. The numbers from the recent Q1 FY2027 print prove the business is firing on all cylinders: The Billion-Dollar Threshold: GitLab officially crossed $1 billion in ARR while generating a robust $220 million in free cash flow for FY2026. Corporate Confidence: Management didn't hesitate to authorise a massive $400 million share repurchase program. This isn't a defensive posture—this is a structurally sound company aggressively buying its own dip because it knows the market is mis-pricing its equity. Q1 FY2027 Earnings Blowout: Revenue hit $264.2 million (a stellar 23% YoY growth clip), easily beating consensus estimates. Non-GAAP EPS landed at $0.23, serving up a clear 12.3% beat on the bottom line. Guidance Lifted: Full-year revenue guidance was confidently lifted to a $1.12 billion baseline, completely contradicting the sector-wide slowdown narrative. 📐 Part II: Technical Architecture — High Volume Breakout, Low Volume Pullback The chart setup captured in is absolutely textbook market structure. We are witnessing a classic structural accumulation pattern that has just completed its introductory expansion phase. ➔ ➔ ➔ The Base & Neckline Break: After grinding out a wide rounding accumulation floor from February through May, GTLB executed a massive, high-volume breakout candle in early June, violently slicing through structural resistance at $26.39. The Controlled Cleanse: The subsequent decline wasn't a liquidation event—it was a highly controlled, incredibly low-volume pullback. The Aggressive Neckline Backtest: As highlighted explicitly on the chart, price successfully completed an aggressive backtest of the neckline at the $26.39 level and immediately found strong institutional bids. Volume is beginning to return right on cue, confirming that the weak hands have been thoroughly shaken out. ⚡ Part III: Execution Coordinates & Trade Parameters The risk-to-reward ratio on this swing configuration is incredibly clean. We wait for the confirmation trigger to unlock the sequence toward our primary targets. 🟢 Trigger Level> $29.5 above recent minor consolidation highs activates the trade. 🔴 Hard Stop< $29.00 A clean break back below the immediate pivot invalidates the localised bullish momentum. 🎯 Target 1 (Linear)$32.00 Initial liquidity pocket. Take profit on the first 1/3 of the position to secure a risk-free trade. 🎯 Target 2 (Linear)$34.06 Major psychological resistance line mapped on. Trim harder here. 🚀 Target 3 (Log Tgt) $37.29. Exit the remaining core runner for a maximum risk-to-reward payday. #GTLB #GitLab #DevSecOps #TechnicalAnalysis #PriceAction #SectorRotation #EarningsBeat #ChartPatterns #RoundingBottom #WhaleActivity #SoftwareRotation #TradingView #SwingTrade #BuyTheDip #MarketStructure

S&P500 What does it historically do before midterm elections?On November 03 2026 the U.S. goes for its midterm elections. Right now we 17 weeks before, this rather critical event for the stock market so let's see how the S&P500 index (SPX) has performed historically 17 weeks before its midterm elections since 2002 and the Dotcom Bubble Crisis. As you can see, we've had 6 midterm elections since 2002. On 4 occasions, the market ended lower (red Rectangles) at the time of the elections and only 2 (green Rectangles) managed to rise. As a result, there are twice as many probabilities for S&P500 to decline and be at a lower price than today, than they are to rise. Also it is worth mentioning that unless the price is on it that 17 week period before, the market tends to seek its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) by the midterm elections. And since this time we are above it, it is historically justified to consider a pull-back towards it, the strongest probability. And by November, contact with the 1W MA50 can be made at around 7100 at least. --- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** --- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇

Choosing Not to Trade Is Also a Decision As mentioned in my previous journal entries, I was already holding positions in **MRNA** and **PANW** when **RBRK** presented a valid long setup. From a technical perspective, RBRK met the conditions I typically look for. The structure was clean, relative strength remained intact, and it satisfied the requirements of my trading plan. I still chose not to enter. The decision had nothing to do with the quality of the setup. At the time, **MRNA** was still carrying active risk, while **PANW** had already been moved to **break-even**. According to my risk management rules, adding another position under those conditions wasn't justified. There are currently several other stocks on my watchlist that continue to look equally attractive. However, identifying opportunities and acting on every opportunity are two different things. For now, my priority is managing the positions I already have. The only circumstances under which I'd consider adding another position are: * One of my existing trades reaches partial profit-taking, freeing up risk capacity. * Or the broader market provides additional confirmation. At the moment, I'm closely watching the accumulation phase in **QQQ** and **SPX**. If either index breaks out with convincing strength—particularly SPX, which currently appears stronger—I may reassess my exposure. Until then, my focus remains on managing **MRNA** and **PANW** rather than increasing the number of open positions. One lesson I've come to appreciate is that risk management doesn't only determine **how much** to risk. It also determines **when not to take a perfectly valid trade**. The journal continues.

by happyrajofficial

A Valid Setup, Now Let the Market Decide in PANW Yesterday I initiated a **long position in PANW** after the asset satisfied the conditions defined in my trading plan. The overall structure, order flow, and relative strength all aligned with the framework I use before committing capital. Several other assets were also on my watchlist, but PANW was the first to present a valid entry. Once the position became active, I cancelled my remaining pending orders and shifted my full attention to managing this trade. Shortly after entry, the market provided enough strength for me to move my stop-loss to **break-even**, leaving the position risk-free. As I write this before today's market open, there are no significant overnight gaps. Price is expected to open close to yesterday's closing level, so the market will now determine the next step. From here, only a few outcomes matter: * The position reaches break-even. * The trade develops further and allows partial profit-taking. * Or the market provides new information that requires me to reassess the position. The journal continues.

by happyrajofficial

S&P500: Testing a strong Resistance Cluster. Reversal possible.S&P500 has marginally turned bullish again on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 56.810, MACD = 26.430, ADX = 22.594) being on a short term rebound just after crossing under its 1D MA50. The 1D MA50 isn't a Support though anymore as it technically broke and closed under during the June 25th-26th Low formation. This rebound now faces a strong Resistance Cluster, the R1 and LH Zones. If rejected, the first target would be the S1 Zone (TP1 = 7,430). If the index closes under it, the next support levels are the S2 and S3. However with the 1D MA50 gone, the market should technically seek the next demand zone on the 1D MA100. That would be a -5.16% decline from the recent LH, just like the early June. Potential contact with the 1D MA100 could be, TP2 = 7,175. See how our prior idea has worked out: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##

by InvestingScope

Took instant -1 in BB even though it's pretty STRONG!! Today, shortly after the market opened, I entered a long position in BB after monitoring the asset for several days. Although the broader conditions continued to meet my criteria, the opportunity itself only presented after the opening session. Within minutes of entry, the trade moved directly against me and reached my predefined stop-loss before I had an opportunity to reduce risk. Final Result: -1R (0.5% account risk) The outcome doesn't change my overall view of the asset. From my perspective, the market still demonstrates characteristics that interest me: constructive price action, relative strength, healthy order flow, and signs of continued institutional participation. One losing trade doesn't invalidate the underlying thesis. If the market presents another setup that satisfies my trading plan, I'm completely comfortable taking another position. Every trade is independent. My responsibility is to evaluate the quality of the setup—not the outcome of the previous trade. The journal continues.

by happyrajofficial