SPX | The Sleeping Pilot

akikostas Updated   
SP:SPX   S&P 500 Index
Traders have made the ultimate mistake, they were caught sleeping on the steering wheel.
And after missing the trend, they attempt to enter it again, only to realize that they have trapped themselves.

A question arises: Were they sleeping or are they performing a suicide attack?
SPX is like a sharp kamikaze plane. Perhaps of Japanese origin, closing in to Perl Harbor.

A wise one should never cut towards them. A knife pointing upwards can only kill bulls.
If they wish prices to go up, they must turn the knife down, to kill any bears that step in their way.
But it seems though the markets are not wise right now.

A successful kamikaze is a fearless kamikaze.
All was well when the soldier was certain of their attack. SPX has been moving in perfect correlation with fearless index, aka VVIX / VIX ratio (orange line).
But now they have second thoughts. And that is their weakness.

SPX is heading upwards with growing fear right now.
VVIX/VIX is the thought, SPX is the action. We are in a jet lag, in no mans land.
The seconds before the pilot moves the joystick back instead of forward.

This is not the first time we are dealing with a soldier who is having second thoughts.

Once in 2018...
...another one in 2020...
...and finally in 2021.

This fight is almost over for the bulls.
Question is: Who will win the war?

Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground.
-Father Grigori

P.S. Many have made jokes about the POTUS as being sleepy.
Never call someone something you don't want to be called yourself.
Bitcoin Futures tell a similar story. Futures can help measure fading sentiment.

Another perspective to analyze besides fear, could be the concentration of growth in few companies.
The magnificent seven, have lost one of their warriors (TSLA) and are now trapped themselves.
Market Oligarchy cannot continue much longer.
Paradoxically, Traders and Investors alike, are afraid of heights. Acrophobia.

An expensive, growing stock (MSFT) is scary for them. It seems like it has reached the top no matter how you look at it. Humans ask for very small things...

Sometimes, it is everything or nothing.
Finding and selling at the absolute top is not the most profitable strategy.
RSP/IVV calculates the democracy in SPX. Right now, everything regarding this ratio is as bearish as it gets. There is no room for further increase in oligarchy.

SPX is held in artificial life support by a handful of companies. Brace for impact!
American NYSE vs Composite NYSE
Did you buy into the whole CV19 and healthcare mania?
If you did, then congratulations. You may be invested in some of the worst stocks.
Find a log-scaled Kagi chart of the entire history of MSFT.

You'll know when the test starts.

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