According to FedWatch Tool www.cmegroup.com there will be 2 or even 3 interest rate CUTS in late 2020.
It means the difference between US10-US02Y spread will move up - arrow on the plot. We can already see that values jumped to 1.63 and that will continue!
The vertical dashed lines indicate the official...
You have opened the grave of an economic cycle. Before we dig deeper into the nature and consequences of our discovery, we will discuss the background to the thesis and consider first what we know from history a few lessons;
(1) Every other time this happened it ended badly for the global economy via recession. A
(2) A Fed that lags and finances the Whitehouse...
La Curva de Rendimiento US10Y/US02Y fue muy mencionada durante el 2019
Segun el historico cuando la curva se invierte (negativa) podria ser un indicador de una anticipacion de una recesion, sin embargo, durante la Crisis DotCom y la Crisis Hipotecaria, la crisis se produjo 18 meses despues de invertirse la primera vez ....
Dow Jones dropped over 1200 points in one day, that's the biggest downward move ever happen.
Interest rates are going down FED Watch Tool shows over 99% that FED will cut at least 25pts.
More cuts will come soon, please check www.cmegroup.com
I follow this website and 3-5 days ago there was only 10% for a...
The peak of the SPX in 2000 to the peak of the subsequent bear market rally == 5 months.
The peak of the SPX in 2007 to the peak of the subsequent bear market rally == 7 months.
If we count the peak of the SPX in 2020 to start from January, we're 4 months in.
I've read that the bear market continues not when the yields invert, but when the yield curves...
Interest rates are crucial in the movement of currencies. The blue is EURUSD. Those things are not 100 percent correlated but it is something that needs to be paid attention to.
In this post I will demonstrate the relationship between French American bond yields (interest rates) differential and EURUSD.
We use 2 principal yields 2 yearly and 5 yearly composite...
Green arrows pointing at instances where the Yield Curve is Inverted. Info line shows how many days are in between the yield curve inversion and the beginning of a recession. As you can see, the yield curve inverted again in Aug 2019.