All my thoughts are on the chart.
For reference, definition of treasuries yield curve:
According to Investopedia, the yield curve graphs the relationship between bond yields and bond maturity. More specifically, the yield curve captures the perceived risks of bonds with various maturities to bond investors.
The U.S. Treasury Department issues bonds with...
2YY is falling after a retest of the multi-decade trend. This will be the fourth time in history.
These are followed by a major bear market and recession.
This chart of the U.S. 10s/2s curve and the SPDR S&P Utilities Sector ETF (XLU) is interesting. A few days ago, I was reading a blurb by a well-known outlet about utilities getting "smoked" during the Q4 equity route. Like above, performance is relative to time frame. Additionally, you have to have a deeper understanding about what XLU is and what it can...
Inversion on the yield curve is making markets very uneasy and for good reason. Now the fed is stuck between to evils. Raising rates to reduce the balance sheet in order to be prepared for the inevitable recession (lets be honest, its too late for that now), OR reduce rates to at least flatten the yield curve. This would show in the yield of the 2 year and 3 month...
This is a chart comparing historical yield curve inversions using the 10YR verses the 2YR US treasuries on a weekly time scale. Inverted yield curves have historically predicted recessions 6-12 months out.
Weekly:
- Downtrend (flattening) since 2014 (!)
- Ichimoku setup is still bearish. Key reversal points ar 0,20 % (Kijun + 1st trendline) and 0,35 % (Forward Senkou B + 2nd trendline) -> these two levels are absolutely critical, as if they break, the curve trend will change to a longer term strategic steepening
- Heikin-Ashi candles show consolidation since...
It is very clear from the monthly chart here that this has been an uptrend for some time now. The 2 year yields have started to see some widely anticipated profit taking just shy of the 2.618 extended target for the 3rd wave.
The market has since retraced and held the 23.6% in a corrective 4th wave process.
Time to start paying attention to yields again for 2019.
FX turmoil early in the evening session with the AUDUSD falling to .6750, USDJPY falling through 105 and USDTRY blasting through 5.6.
EURUSD and GBPUSD are taking some heat, too, in what is being explained as carry trades being unwound as market participants are finally getting the gist: growth and inflation are slowing.
In my previous post, my intermediate...
Here I try compare period of market declination with deference of US10 years treasury yield and US 2 years treasury .
As we can see, all last crisis and market declination, whenever deference between us 10 yield and 2 year yield was bearish and make valley, for 2 years or 26 months stock market have bearish trend.
I think we should ready for bearish and NOT...
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US02Y
