US Government Bonds 2 YR Yield US02Y

MrAndroid Pro+

When the 10 year yield goes lower than the 2 year yield goes negative it is regarded by markets as a recession warning. Not a great surprise but interesting to see it on the chart.

The_Arena_Trader Premium

The 2/10 treasury yield spread is quickly flattening and an inversion could happen soon. All of the previous yield curve inversions are associated with memorable market sell-offs and recessions. I believe the ripple effect of the ongoing financial and economic sanctions against Russia will end up being the catalyst for the next meltdown. The market conditions...

ILuminosity

Crash Zone highlighted in Red. Fair warning is given as well; "Sell Sell Sell"

NoOneWhoIsSomeone Pro

Ahead of incredibly important CPI data to be released tomorrow, we are seeing yields steepen in a very dramatic fashion. In comparison to each of the last 3 inversions, this one is not even close to the past. It is important to understand that when yields steepen , it systematically leads to downside in the SPX/NASDAQ. It has been the indicator of almost...

Brodie Pro+

This post is intended to show the current gap between the market for the 2 year US treasury yield on bonds and the official funds rate, and why the market is forcing central banks hands into raising interest rates when the market is in such a fragile state in ability to support and maintain debt at heighten interest rate levels. Simply put, bond market are...

Macrodesiac

'US TREASURY SECRETARY YELLEN: I DO NOT EXPECT A RECESSION TO OCCUR IN THE US.' Janet Yellen said this yesterday. The market disagrees. Right now, we're seeing the 2s10s curve flatten. When this happens, the market is expecting long term rates to fall relative to short term rates, or in other words, they're expecting bad times ahead. Traditionally, the 2s10s...

RealMacro

The lower this ratio goes the closer we get to a recession signal. CAUTION is in order as it is collapsing!

pokelife123

Everytime it goes below 0% a crash will occur this is just a note for me

MrTsoi Pro

The yield Curve almost Inverted again while Inflation soared. The worst thing for the risk assets like equity is full of participants who now need to face the Fed Fund Rate being hiked up by the Fed, which is currently under more pressure to increase Fed Fund Rate against higher Inflation which is 8.6% released this week. In contrast, the 2-year bond yield goes up...

NAK1987 Premium

I am nicknaming the 2-10 year yield "Icarus". Pushing back towards to the sun with haste it would seem . Kind of interesting how this is off the media radar today . Oh my wings! See my two wings! How I love to fly! -The final words between: Icarus, and his father~

mmdandytra Pro+

If the US Treasury Spread Yield between 10 Year and 2 Year turns negative, SPX will fall AFTER the spread move to positive territory. The spread is about to turn negative since the 10 year yield is about to break Resistance (from highest since Oct'18. The yield ended its Downtrend since middle of 2021. It's about to confirm Uptrend by breaking out Resistance at...

TheTradersBias Pro

The US 2YR has paused its upside momentum giving stonks a chance to have a small rally. Most likely short covering since quad witch caused a gamma unwind. The 2YR would have to break down meaningfully for stocks to have any chance of a decent rally which I don't see happening with the Fed's current rate hike projections.

Yogigolf Pro+

The Fed really just follows the bond market when it comes to their rate hikes. Based on previous history when the 2 year and the 3 month invert the Fed stops hiking rates and potentially starts QE again. At the current trajectory it looks like this could happen by July/August at the current trajectory of this yield curve.

mmdandytra Pro+

I compare the charts of YS Treasury Yield Spread between 10 years and 2 years and SPX. In the chart, it shows that everytime the spread comes out from negative area, the SPX falls (crash). This is the reason why Economist say that Yield Spread is the predictor of Recession that leads to Market Crash

tony3512

Will it finish this month around that MA line and retest it in July with stocks and crypto bouncing? quite possible.

NAK1987 Premium

Observation - Just caught that the 2 year yield once again paying more than the 10. Wonder if it will hold above the yellow line this time ? Oh Icarus back to the sun eh ? ...

tradingonatoilet Pro

The 2yr yield is inverted to emphasize value rather than yield. The untethering of the DXY from the treasuries are something to watch. There's a lot to see here. Im viewing it from the lenses of liquidity and solvency. This is developing. The purpose of this post is to serve as a repository of notes along the way regarding this topic. DXY shows relative...

MrAndroid Pro+

Mixed picture here. The US 2 year yield which is usually predictive of the Fed funds rate has pushed higher than a line of long term resistance. It is possible to look at this as a breakout from a grand supercycle falling wedge after a previous false breakout. The RSI chart has a rolling over / topping look to it which may indicate that this rally in yield will...