spread -.85 backward. this M1-M2 spread is extremely important to how uvxy rebalances.
hv 10 17.89. the new resting heart rate of vix is roughly 17-18
hv 20 and hv 30 yet to reflect current spike. as realized volatility/ HV reflects the likelihood for expanded moves increases
$UVXY This market is shaky. I am taking profits here since I expected just a small corrective leg (warning shot). The market overall looks like an exhausted bull, yes it does. And I will wait for this Monday to see if the overall market rethinks the position during the weekend and tries to take it slow or if an overreaction drags it down, in which case the...
vix futures firmly flat to backward. spot roughly $4 above spot. hv still low. but the spread between M1-M2 beginning to widen. for uvxy the spot cash vs m1-m2 spread is the only thing that matters. lets see what happens next
I don't really know. I'm targeting 33. Seems likely. For it to go to 40 in the nearest term, would take an equal amount of negative sentiment compared to the last 3 days of mis-priced FED FUNDS + Global Trade Escalation. What could possibly be negative enough to send this thing to 40 in the next week? I'm turning SHORT UVXY once it starts breaching 35.
1. SPY is at record highs and... I am watching for topping signs or softening to show...
2. There is enough sh!@#$%^t going in the world to foresee something triggering a bad market reaction soon! (Global economy slowing down, Several trade wars, possible hard Brexit, Deutsche Bank issues, Iran tensions... just to name a few...)
3. The FED won't cut rates by more...
As I pointed out before this is a bears dream and while I have placed other trades over the years, with very few exceptions all I do is buy Long Term Puts on UVXY. I made a comment on another post that it would take Armageddon to make UVXY appreciate that is not entirely true. While there is a chance the position could appreciate 10-20% at some point in time, the...
I’m the first to admit that I’m no GG. My trades dont vary a great deal but they make money. UVXY has a ridiculous contango and Long Term Puts way outside the money are my favorite way to keep profits coming in.
I continuously buy $5-$10 Puts 8-11 months out. For instance, last month I bought 50 1.17.20 10 Puts for $.20 and just started buying $5 3.20.20 Puts....
Someone is working over time to short this thing. SPY is flat, yet this thing is down +5% !?! Something isn't right... maybe final clean up before reversal. If you know something, *** let's talk about it ... ***
The ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF is approaching the April bottom and the symmetrical Lower Low on the 1M Falling Wedge. Being oversold (RSI = 6.651, MACD = -1698.076) a strong cyclical rebound is expected on a very structured and recurring candle pattern. We are on a long term buy on UVXY with TP = 75.00.
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Powerline RSI is again signaling a strong overbought condition on VIX.
Powerline RSI is signaling moderate overbought condition
While there has been some correction downward, there is further pressure.
A short-term short (4-week-ish) would be warranted.
Compare condition now to the huge run up months ago.
and valleys of the EW waves. Currently wave A of 2 (SPX) is completed and coincides with wave 3 top (UVXY). Wave B(SPX) is in progress. Top of B should coincides with bottom of 4 (UVXY). Wave 5 (UVXY) and Wave C (SPX) shall be charted later.
With RSI at these levels it shouldn't be long before UVXY has a little jump. My target would at least be the low at around $36. Still much to learn, so happy for any feedback to refine whatever I am doing. Do I have a stop loss? No, but I should! Tips?
today 4/20/2019 experimental trade based on volatility trends for overall market,
biggest near open interest is on 17May then January.
From a simple analysis of the angle of the trendline.
We will see the volatility keep decreasing in a near cycle.
Each position has an exit order +150% over paid price /contract
So the put 30 at 4.625 and call 34 at...