maikisch

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Since I started posting on TradingView.com once per week, I have been warning my readers of softness into the 3800 -3720 area target box. Today, I have no reason to believe otherwise. Really, my only question is when, and then what happens next? I have a purple pathway down to the low 3000’s and as of now that remains an alternative. With the loss of positive...

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The last several weeks I have written about the move to the 3800 level and with the smaller chance of a direct move to the low 3,000 level right now. Clearly, there are people on both sides of the bullish/bearish equation and they’re not shy to share their support or disdain for my forecasts. I’m grateful for that, because that is what makes a market. However,...

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I have long opined on how I believe the SPX/ES gets to my initial downside target of 3200 to high 2800 area. This week I will dispense with the long-term warnings, and provide some intermediate context. This market is transitioning from “Buy the Dips” which has worked as a strategy for the better part of 2 decades to “Sell the Rips” . That is not to say...

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Like most, the 2008-09 financial crisis had an impact on me, my family, my financial decisions, and pretty much everything. It was a life altering time period. Now, granted back then, I was a younger trader, and retirement was not on my radar screen. Fast forward 15 years into the future, and you bet, retirement is a blip on my radar screen now, and I’m...

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In our trading room we’ve been tracking what I have characterized as the final stages of a rally that began back in October at the lows of 3502. The question remains are we topping, or have we already topped? Longer term, I deduce there are two schools of camp from my CNBC White Noise in the background of my trading office. The first is we’re in a new bull...

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For those of you reading this who trade the ES futures market I have a question. How’s that choppy price action treating you? It’s hard trading chop. However, to those of us who analyze price action, it’s a big clue. It represents indecision in markets. The age-old battle of fear and greed tugging and pushing against each other. Chop usually reconciles in...

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Today was a fairly predictable day if you traded my morning update chart. On the morning update post I posted my activity for a scalp. I'm short -3 ES at 4207 for a scalp anticipating price getting down to 4150-4160 area. We can get down into the 4120 area without invalidating anything but if this is going to continue to extend we should not get down that low. ...

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There is so much I don't like about this rally (I have addressed this a lot in the past) but price is the ultimate arbiter. So, it is not my nature to be closed minded. Am I ready to go long? No...but the market doesn't care about my readiness. Let's recap my trading: 1. I am short -25 4300 calls at $7 that expire End of February. I raised $8,679 in...

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ADA has extended in it's wave 5 of primary 1. This over lapping grind higher appears to be an ending diagonal for completion of wave 1. If my count is correct our retrace should come into the area of origination which is .27. However, I prefer to wait to see how price behaves over the course of this upcoming weekend. Best to all, Chris IMPORTANT NOTE:...

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Solana has been consolidating since Saturday 1/21 high into $26.55. I have posted an alternative wave c of 2 FLAT. We appear to be moving impulsively on the smaller timeframes however, this is most likely part of the (c) of c subdivision. Obviously if we breach $26.55 we may be ready to take off. This is precisely why I said its risky to sell out of entire...

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It's hard to get excited about something you don't like. That's the best way to describe this pattern...I don't like it. But moving forward the below becomes my primary micro count in (black) as I believe it has earned the benefit of the doubt. I have an alternate count in (purple). However, I'm tracking this final move higher as impulsive so all the target...

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I need to look at where we are pattern wise....but whereas I have been looking for the perfect pattern lower into the 3700 area...I have to come around to the fact I'm wrong. I will not fight price. I have not added to my position but still own my 4300 calls short for EOM Feb. I'll have a more in-depth update in the morning. Any pressing questions please post...

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I will recap the Thought Experiment in another post...but what is most timely is 4132-4136 is an area I may add to ES shorts....but on a very tight lease. Stay Tuned for a later update. Best to all, Chris IMPORTANT NOTE: SOMETIME BETWEEN MID AND END OF FEBRUARY I WILL ONLY BE POSTING ONCE PER WEEK HERE ON TRADING VIEW. I WILL ONLY BE DOING WEEKEND...

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Let's do this early? Huh? I'll be able to sleep in tomorrow morning...yeah!!!!!!!!! First, Let’s revisit some things for new readers of my work. On occasion I will make a detailed, but educated, guess on the direction of the markets strictly based off the charts. Typically, these would be done on days of perceived high volatility due to some news or event...

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I guess that's the big question...Have we Topped, or does this rally continue? Although we end up in the same place, the green b-wave (is the black count) it just supposes we topped already and the ending diagonal will eventually become invalidated. I placed that b-wave there ONLY because we have a full pattern as of now. But not to get ahead of myself so far...

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This morning the ES is declining just below the ideal spot to continue to support this ED pattern. Last night I advertently type 3990 for ED invalidation. Its 3980. 3980 represents the .884% retracement area and last fib retracement and a very uncommon area used by Elliottitions . This decline should ideally hold the .618% - .786% zone. Nonetheless, if for...

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Judging by what I see in all tier-1 crypto I have decided to trim holdings. I know this is an about-face for most who read me. However I must emphasize, this is for risk management purposes more than anything ominous. This morning I sold 3,000 SOL and 10,000 ADA. I still hold 4,000 SOL and 10,000 ADA. My holdings have doubled so these are mostly free trades...

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Today we got a little retrace and so far our Ending Diagonal pattern is intact. This would mean we should get one more high into the 4130-4170 area but well within the confines of the trendlines. If the ED is playing out then price should come into the .618% of the previous move up which would be 4018-4021 area and bounce to approximately the 4130-4170 area. ...